人民财讯10月11日电，央行公告称，10月11日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1160亿元7天期逆回购 操作，操作利率1.40%。 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观月报】 9 月全球投资十大主线 事 项 9 月全球大类资产总体表现为：全球股票（3.31%）>全球债券（0.65%）>人民 币（0.13%）>大宗商品（0.05%）>美元（0.00%）> 0%。 主要观点 十张图速览全球资产脉络。 1、伦敦金现价格冲击 4000 点的关键点位。国际现货黄金价格近期延续强劲上 涨势头，9 月底伦敦金现价格突破 3800 美元/盎司，再次刷新历史纪录，继续 向上冲击 4000 美元/盎司的整数关键点位。本轮黄金价格的迅猛上涨是由多重 系统性因素和市场情绪共同推动的结果：一是美联储降息预期升温；二是地缘 政治不确定性与避险需求；三是各国央行持续购金提供坚实支撑。过去两次百 年秩序重构期，1800 年前后、1930 年前后，都出现了 10 年左右的黄金激烈脉 冲（3-5 倍），当下秩序重构加剧的背景下，建议关注黄金的历史性机会。 2、美国政府停摆落地后美股创历史新高。9 月 30 日，美国国会参议院未能在 联邦政府资金耗尽前通过新的临时拨款法案。美国东部时间 10 月 1 日零时起， 联邦政府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。美国政府停摆主要是由于国会民 ...

货币政策更注重"精准滴灌"，通过结构性工具加码重点领域，降息预期降温，加之投资者风险偏好依旧较高，债市情绪受到抑制，预计后续 将震荡偏空运行。 合理充裕态势较为确定 节前央行通过及时重启14天期逆回购、超量续作MLF等方式，呵护资金平稳跨季。9月30日的报价显示，DR001利率下行至1.39%，DR007利 率下行至1.44%，资金利率持续维持在低位。 节后来看，首周将有17633亿元7天逆回购到期，9000亿元14天逆回购到期，到期规模合计超2.6万亿元。但9月30日央行公告称，10月9日将以 固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月。10月将有8000亿元3个月期逆回购到期，这意味着 10月3个月期逆回购加量续作3000亿元。逆回购及时续作有利于缓解本周逆回购到期压力，资金面合理充裕预期较为稳定。 政策： 图为30年期国债期货主力合约日线 经历了8月的持续调整，国债收益率曲线陡峭化、10年期国债收益率与7天期逆回购政策利率利差扩大至40个基点以上、交易盘持续卖出现象 缓解，债市调整基本到位。不过，市场风险偏好依旧较高，债市未见明显拐点信号，多空交织下，9月债市呈 ...

城投债净融资额连续七个月为负 第 472 期 2025-10-09 企业预警通统计数据显示，9月城投债发行量4823.60亿元，环比下降2.76%；净融资连续第7个月为负，融资 缺口环比扩大至326.40亿元。截至9月末，今年以来城投债共计发行40918.32亿元，总偿还额累计42770.54亿 元，净融资额-1852.22亿元。 此外，机构统计市场情况还显示，9月城投债市场呈现"注册上升、审批放缓与终止上升"并存状态，整体融资 节奏依然偏紧。 焦点关注 节后股债开门红，债市"钝刀割肉"配置难度还在增加 此外，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，10月9日，人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 四中全会前，人民日报连发八篇钟才文，传递什么信号 银行间债券市场境外机构一站式开户平台上线试运行 党的二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日在北京召开。9月30日起，《人民日报》连续推出8篇"习近平经济思 想指引下的中国经济专论"系列"钟才文"文章，围绕"经济形势怎么看、经济工作怎么干"，深入系统阐述中国 经济长期稳定发展的内在逻辑，以及中国发展之于世界的机 ...

商务部决定对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制 据商务部网站消息，10月9日，商务部发布了相关公告，公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决 定，以及对稀土相关技术实施出口管制的决定。在对稀土相关技术实施出口管制的决定中，商务部明确 提到，以下物项未经许可不得出口。一是稀土开采、冶炼分离、金属冶炼、磁材制造、稀土二次资源回 收利用相关技术及其载体；二是稀土开采、冶炼分离、金属冶炼、磁材制造、稀土二次资源回收利用相 关生产线装配、调试、维护、维修、升级等技术。 中国和印度将于今年10月底前恢复直航航班 宏观要闻 央行今日开展1.1万亿买断式逆回购操作 中国人民银行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，10月9日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 ...

每经AI快讯，10月9日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了6120亿元7天期逆回购操作。 ...

人民财讯10月9日电，中国人民银行今日开展6120亿元7天逆回购操作，投标量6120亿元，中标量6120亿 元，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is closed while the Hong Kong stock market remains open, serving as a "barometer" for market sentiment, although it may not be entirely accurate [1] - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, with silver rising by 14% and gold surpassing $3,900, reaching a historical high [1] - The semiconductor sector is also performing well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 6%, reaching a new high, and foreign banks setting target prices at HKD 117 [1] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for Q3 2025 has returned to 50.8, indicating a recovery in industrial production, while retail consumption has increased by 6.1% year-on-year [7] - Despite positive economic indicators, the general public does not feel significant improvements in income, as wages remain unchanged while prices continue to rise [7] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The market sentiment is cautious, with the A50 index showing minor fluctuations and external factors influencing investor confidence [3] - Historical data suggests a 70% probability of an increase on the first trading day after the holiday, with a 60% chance of continued gains over the next five days [3] - The A-share index approached 3,899.96 points before the holiday, but lacked sufficient trading volume, making it susceptible to high volatility [9] Trading Dynamics - The market is characterized by a mix of buying and waiting, with investors eager to act but uncertain about the next market direction [12] - The potential for a "red opening" exists, but sustained high trading volumes are necessary for a breakout above 3,900 points; otherwise, the market may experience fluctuations similar to previous days [9][10]

Economic Stability - Domestic economic data shows marginal stabilization, with the PMI recorded at 49.8 in September, up from 49.4 in August, indicating a slight recovery after a slowdown in July and August [1][6][7] - The EPMI for September increased by 4.6 points to 52.4, reflecting seasonal recovery trends [6] - The BCI index rose from 46.9 in August to 51.1 in September, slightly exceeding expectations [6] Foreign Reserves and Monetary Policy - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,387 billion at the end of September, an increase of $165 billion from August, marking a continuous rise after a brief decline in July [1][6][7] - The central bank's gold reserves stood at 7,406 million ounces at the end of September, up by 40,000 ounces from August, marking 11 consecutive months of increases [1][6][7] - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan on October 9, aimed at maintaining liquidity stability post-holiday [1][6][8] Travel and Tourism - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 6, the average daily cross-regional movement of people reached 295 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [2][8] - The national migration scale index showed a year-on-year increase of 20.3% during the same period [2][9] - Predictions indicate that daily inbound and outbound travelers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays will exceed 2 million, with total cross-border travel expected to increase by over 35% compared to last year [2][12][13] Retail Market Performance - The retail market showed stable growth, with key retail and catering enterprises' sales increasing by 3.3% year-on-year during the first four days of the holiday [3][14] - Sales of green organic food on major e-commerce platforms rose by 20.1%, while energy-efficient appliances saw a 19% increase [3][14] - Movie box office revenues during the holiday period averaged 246 million yuan per day, down 18.0% year-on-year, with attendance also declining by 9.8% [3][14] Real Estate Market - National real estate sales were weaker than the previous year, with average daily transactions in 30 major cities dropping by 19.0% year-on-year during the holiday [3][15] - First-tier cities showed relatively stronger performance, with sales in first, second, and third-tier cities recording year-on-year changes of 5.2%, -31.9%, and -24.7% respectively [3][15] Port Activity and Exports - Port container throughput remained strong, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0% from September 29 to October 5, indicating robust export growth [4][17] - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated investigations into trade barriers following Mexico's anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products [4][17][18] Technological Advancements - Significant breakthroughs were reported in the technology sector, including advancements in solid-state lithium batteries and enzyme catalysis research [4][18][19] Policy Insights - Recent articles in the People's Daily have focused on the current economic situation, emphasizing the resilience and vitality of China's economy under the leadership of the central government [4][20][21]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a 1,817 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a stable interest rate of 1.8%, aimed at managing liquidity before the National Day holiday [1][3] - This operation is a routine liquidity management measure, contrasting with previous years where single-day reverse repos reached up to 5,000 billion yuan, indicating a focus on "precise regulation" rather than "strong stimulus" [3][4] Group 2 - The short-term impact on the market is limited, but the operation signals that the central bank maintains a reasonable liquidity level and reassures that there will be no sudden policy shifts [4] - The macroeconomic policy remains supportive of growth, as evidenced by recent MLF operations and accelerated issuance of special bonds [4] Group 3 - Long-term investors should focus on three key indicators: MLF operation rates as a policy interest rate benchmark, social financing data to gauge real financing demand in the economy, and inflation expectations, particularly the core CPI [5] - The current environment suggests that investors should look for opportunities in undervalued stocks, especially if market volatility occurs post-holiday [6]