春节前，为平稳跨节流动性，央行通过结构性降息、加大逆回购及买断式逆回购投放，并重启14天逆回 购操作，向市场释放出稳定资金面的明确信号。在此背景下，节前资金价格整体处于近年来同期低位。 春节假期过后，市场资金面运行备受关注。 节后首周，逆回购集中到期、税期走款与跨月因素叠加，短期扰动因素有所增多。不过，多家机构分析 认为，在央行持续开展逆回购和中期借贷便利（MLF）操作对冲到期压力的背景下，流动性整体运行 平稳。随着跨节因素逐步消退以及现金回流银行体系，3月资金面有望延续均衡偏宽松格局。 节后资金面迎多重到期压力 不过，多家机构认为，随着跨节扰动逐步消退，资金面有望自发式转松，整体宽松格局难以改变。展望 3月，流动性环境仍具备平稳运行基础。 华西证券发布的研报认为，从季节性规律看，春节过后资金面往往出现自然回暖。节前居民提取的现金 节后逐步回流银行体系，为市场补充流动性。同时，非银机构资金需求也从节前偏重7天、14天等跨节 资金，逐步切换回隔夜资金，供需结构随之改善。 在此影响下，7天期资金利率通常回落幅度更为明显。数据显示：自2021年以来，春节前后两周7天期资 金利率中枢平均下降约24个基点；隔夜利率虽同 ...

节后资金面扰动可控 机构预计三月流动性延续宽松 ◎记者 张欣然 春节假期过后，市场资金面运行备受关注。 节后首周，逆回购集中到期、税期走款与跨月因素叠加，短期扰动因素有所增多。不过，多家机构分析 认为，在央行持续开展逆回购和中期借贷便利（MLF）操作对冲到期压力的背景下，流动性整体运行 平稳。随着跨节因素逐步消退以及现金回流银行体系，3月资金面有望延续均衡偏宽松格局。 节后资金面迎多重到期压力 春节前，为平稳跨节流动性，央行通过结构性降息、加大逆回购及买断式逆回购投放，并重启14天逆回 购操作，向市场释放出稳定资金面的明确信号。在此背景下，节前资金价格整体处于近年来同期低位。 一位私募基金研究员对上海证券报记者表示，在央行持续净投放下，节前资金面整体运行平稳，R001 均值维持在1.4%附近，处于近一年低位水平，套息交易空间保持稳定，市场情绪亦相对平和。 不过，进入节后首周，市场面临超过2.2万亿元逆回购到期和3000亿元MLF到期的压力。同时，受春节 假期影响，2月税期顺延，税款走款时间与跨月时点重叠，叠加政府债缴款因素，资金面短期扰动有所 加大。 华西证券在研报中表示，受假期因素影响，2月税期集中在24日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic and overseas macro - environment in China remains stable. Domestically, the approaching "Two Sessions" brings positive policy expectations that strongly support the market. Overseas, the planned visit of Trump from March 31 to April 2 and the potential Sino - US summit reduce the short - term possibility of trade risks. The risk preference of the equity market is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to continue holding long - term long positions in stock index futures [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro - financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 1.71bp from the previous value; DR007 closed at 1.48, down 2.31bp [3] - GC001 closed at 1.55, unchanged; GC007 closed at 1.59, down 0.50bp [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.57, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, down 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.79, down 2.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.05, up 1.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 320.5 billion yuan. With 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal on the day was 79.5 billion yuan [3] - In February, the LPR rate remained unchanged: the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. During the week after the Spring Festival holiday (February 24 - 28), 2.2524 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Additionally, 300 billion yuan of MLF and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on February 25 [4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4727, down 0.19%; IF current - month contract closed at 4712, down 0.4% [5] - The SSE 50 closed at 3035, down 0.65%; IH current - month contract closed at 3035, down 0.8% [5] - The CSI 500 closed at 8557, up 0.35%; IC current - month contract closed at 8537, up 0.1% [5] - The CSI 1000 closed at 8491, up 0.76%; IM current - month contract closed at 8443, up 0.4% [5] - The trading volume of IF was 85,824, down 19.3%; the open interest was 269,977, down 4.7% [5] - The trading volume of IH was 42,698, down 19.0%; the open interest was 105,405, down 3.3% [5] - The trading volume of IC was 114,851, down 9.6%; the open interest was 290,740, down 2.6% [5] - The trading volume of IM was 145,580, down 12.6%; the open interest was 357,540, down 4.0% [5] - The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 2.5568 trillion yuan, an increase of 75.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with electronic components, wind power equipment, communication equipment, power supply equipment, electronic chemicals, and power grid equipment sectors leading the gains, while film and television theaters, rare earths, insurance, and real estate development sectors leading the losses [5] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.15%, 3.13%, 3.80%, and 4.24% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.26%, - 0.32%, 0.43%, and 2.23% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.84%, 3.60%, 4.90%, and 5.42% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.23%, 7.95%, 8.76%, and 8.78% respectively [7]

| 20260227申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | 111 | J | | | 1月 | 5月 9 F 1月 5月 9 H | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1368.0 1090. 0 1183.5 1803. 5 1644.0 1721.0 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1391.0 1126. 0 1210.0 1838. 0 1674.0 1743.5 | | | 煤跌 | -23.0 -36.0 -26.5 -34.5 -30. 0 -22.5 | | | | | EG | | 煮跌幅 | -1.65% -3. 20% -2. 19% -1.88% -1. 79% -1.29% | स्त | | 成交堂 | 1690 717671 46555 104 15437 757 | 00 | | 持仓重 | 10450 559107 99797 1073 387 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, the improvement in export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. It is suggested to be cautiously bearish, and in the medium term, still pay attention to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 8,357 lots on Thursday, with a trading volume of 319,835 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,205 yuan, the high was 3,241 yuan. In terms of the daily average line, the short-term fell back to the 5-day moving average, and the pressure of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term still exists. It closed at 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a gain of 0.16% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 30 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: The output contracted year-on-year and was basically flat month-on-month. The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1352 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.002 million tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - Demand side: The demand decreased significantly year-on-year and slightly month-on-month. The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5396 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.013 million tons. The significant year-on-year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal purchases around the Spring Festival. The slight month-on-month decline reflected that the post-festival demand recovery rhythm this year was weaker than in previous years [4]. - Inventory side: The social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory was still lower year-on-year. The factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. With basically flat output and weakening demand, the factory inventory accumulated slightly. The social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Traders replenished their stocks before the festival, and the replenishment intensity was greater than in previous years. The total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5888 million tons. Although it increased significantly month-on-month, it was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4]. - Inventory-to-sales ratio: It was at a high level, showing the pressure of supply and demand. The current inventory-to-sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory-to-sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply-demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Policy side: There were intertwined internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and the Two Sessions were approaching. The market's expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in were rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was not yet clear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.38 with a 1.66 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 4.79 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.55 with a 15.50 bp decrease, GC007 at 1.59 with a 3.50 bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.02 bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.32 with a 0.77 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.55 with a 1.29 bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 1.42 bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.04 with a 1.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4095 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4000 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 95 billion yuan [4] - In February, the LPR rates remained unchanged: 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. From February 24th - 28th, 22524 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 14524 billion, 4000 billion, and 4000 billion maturing on February 24th, 25th, and 26th respectively. Also, on February 25th, 3000 billion yuan of MLF and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [5] Group 2: Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.6% to 4735.9, the SSE 50 rose 0.45% to 3054.9, the CSI 500 rose 1.6% to 8527.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.52% to 8426.3. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 24812 billion yuan, an increase of 2628 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with rare earths, small metals, energy metals, real estate services, steel, non - ferrous metals, and aerospace equipment sectors leading the gains, while the film and television theater and advertising marketing sectors leading the losses [6] - IF volume was 106320 with an 8.7% increase, IF open interest was 283440 with a 6.9% increase; IH volume was 52712 with a 24.8% increase, IH open interest was 108963 with a 9.6% increase; IC volume was 126978 with a 3.0% increase, IC open interest was 298578 with a 5.7% increase; IM volume was 166542 with a 2.9% decrease, IM open interest was 372430 with a 1.9% increase [6] - The IF basis for the current - month contract was 1.50%, next - month 1.34%, current - quarter 2.67%, and next - quarter 3.60%; the IH basis was - 1.70%, - 1.00%, 0.16%, and 2.08% respectively; the IC basis was - 0.27%, 1.07%, 3.39%, and 4.40% respectively; the IM basis was 3.90%, 4.43%, 6.80%, and 7.56% respectively [8] Group 3: Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - Shanghai launched post - holiday real - estate regulatory optimization measures, shortening the social security or tax payment period for non - local residents to buy houses in the inner - ring area to 1 year, increasing the maximum first - home provident fund loan limit from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan, and further increasing it to 3.24 million yuan for multi - child families or those buying green buildings.沪籍 families buying their only new home are exempt from property tax [7] - Driven by favorable policies, the stock index is running strongly. With the expected policy benefits from the upcoming "Two Sessions", the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly. Long - term and medium - term long positions in stock index futures are recommended to be held [7]

节后首日，资金市场利率呈"短涨长稳"态势。一方面，节后大量逆回购到期，加之企业开启正常生产经 营模式，资金需求上升，短端利率走强；另一方面，节前市场对央行适度宽松货币政策的发言已经有所 反应，节后中长端利率表现相对稳定。截至2月24日，上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜、1周 期、2周期分别报收于1.362%、1.553%、1.577%，较2月14日分别上升4.64、22.97、18.7个基点；1月 期、6月期、1年期利率分别报收于1.55%、1.59%、1.61%，均与2月14日持平；3月期、9月期分别报收 于1.578%、1.599%，较2月14日分别下降0.2、0.1个基点。 | 项目 | 2月24日Shibor | 较2月14日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | % | 基点 | | 0/N | 1.362 | 4.64 | | 1 W | 1.553 | 22.97 | | 2W | 1.577 | 18.7 | | 1M | 1.55 | 0 | | 3M | 1.578 | -0.2 | | 6M | 1.59 | 0 | | 9M | 1.599 | -0. ...

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪铅唯一下跌，跌幅达0.18%。沪镍以1.3%的涨幅领涨，其余金 属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨0.21%，铸造铝主连涨0.88%。 此外，碳酸锂主连临近收盘涨幅扩大至10.56%，多晶硅跌4.03%，工业硅涨0.54%，欧线集运主连涨 6.84%报1320.6。 黑色系方面普跌，仅不锈钢上涨1.84%，铁矿跌1.79%，螺纹、热卷跌幅均在0.8%左右。双焦方面，焦 煤跌1.65%，焦炭跌2.3%。 外盘方面，截至15：04分，外盘基本金属集体飘红，且涨幅相较内盘更胜一筹，伦锡以3.78%的涨幅领 涨，伦镍涨2.4%，伦铜涨1.38%，伦锌涨1.51%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 贵金属方面，截至15:04分，COMEX黄金跌0.68%，COMEX白银涨1.68%。国内方面，沪金涨3.52%， 沪银大涨12.84%。 此外，铂主连涨5.54%，钯主连涨4.57%。 截至今日15:03分行情 美元方面： 截至15:04分，美元指数上涨0.07%报97.8，据央视新闻消息：当地时间23日，美国媒体报道称美国政府 正考虑以"国家安全"为由，对约六个行 ...

中新网2月13日电据央行网站消息，2026年2月13日中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1450亿元7 天期逆回购操作。具体情况如下： | 逆回购操作情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投标量 | 期限 操作利率 | 中标量 | | 1450亿元 | 7天 1.40% | 1450亿元 | | 中国人民银行公开市场业务操作室 | | | | 二〇二六年二月十三日 | | | 图片来源：央行网站截图 （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

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