Core Viewpoint - The bond market exhibits seasonal characteristics, with specific trends observed in each quarter, leading to expectations of a favorable year-end market performance [1][9]. Group 1: Seasonal Characteristics of the Bond Market - The bond market typically faces disturbances in the first quarter, followed by a downtrend in yields in the second quarter, a turning point in the third quarter, and a recovery in value after adjustments in the fourth quarter [1]. - Key economic and policy cycles influence these seasonal trends, with the first quarter often showing strong performance, while the second quarter sees a weakening economic momentum [4]. - Important political meetings throughout the year, such as the National People's Congress in March and various Politburo meetings, create fluctuations in market expectations [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - Central bank actions, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are concentrated around year-end and significant meetings, contributing to a generally favorable liquidity environment at these times [5]. - The seasonal supply of bonds also plays a role, with government bond issuance typically peaking in the second and third quarters, affecting market supply and demand dynamics [6]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior and Market Sentiment - Institutional investors, including banks and insurance companies, tend to follow a strategy of early allocation for early returns, influenced by the beginning of the year and the need to meet performance benchmarks [7]. - The performance of the stock market, particularly A-shares, also exhibits seasonal patterns that indirectly impact bond market behavior [8]. Group 4: Year-End Market Outlook - As of November, the monetary market maintains a loose stance, with signs of recovery in the bond market as liquidity pressures ease and fiscal spending stabilizes [9]. - Institutions anticipate a year-end bond market characterized by stable funding, declining interest rates, and improved market sentiment, supported by a weak macroeconomic backdrop and a clear monetary easing policy [10]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - For investors seeking stable, long-term returns, pure bond funds are highlighted as a suitable choice, particularly in the context of increasing market volatility in equities [12]. - The performance of specific funds, such as the Huatai-PineBridge Fengsui 60-Day Pure Bond Fund, demonstrates resilience against market fluctuations, achieving a cumulative return of 2.68% since inception, significantly outperforming its benchmark [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has both "long - term concerns" and "immediate worries" this week. The short - selling inertia persists, but the buying of bonds by large banks and central bank operations have played a stabilizing role, and interest rates have recovered after consecutive increases. However, more positive and definite signals are needed to reverse the short - selling inertia [1][7]. - The calendar effect of the bond market is not obvious, and holidays do not change the main trend of the market. The main factors influencing bond market trends around the National Day are the fundamentals and fiscal policies [18][20]. - In the bond market adjustment, the decline of secondary perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long - term bonds favored by public funds is particularly obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the re - evaluation risks of the interest rate tops of ultra - long - term bonds and 5Y secondary perpetual bonds [3][33]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market has "long - term concerns" and "immediate worries". The short - selling inertia remains, and the market is worried about the formal implementation of the fund fee solicitation draft and the introduction of unexpected fiscal stimulus policies, as well as the current cross - quarter liquidity support and fund liability - side redemption pressure. The expectation of large banks' entry and the central bank's restart of bond - buying can drive interest rates down, but the extent and sustainability are not firm [1][7]. - From Monday to Friday, the bond market showed different trends. Overall, compared with September 19, by September 26, the 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y ChinaBond Treasury bond yields decreased by 0.7BP, increased by 0.5BP, decreased by 0.2BP, and increased by 1.7BP respectively [7][9][11]. 2. The Bond Market Calendar Effect - The equity market usually has a strong calendar effect around the National Day. Before the holiday, investors are cautious and tend to leave the market, and after the holiday, the market usually rebounds. In the past 9 years since 2015, the Wind All - A Index fell in 6 years in the five trading days before the National Day, with a decline of 0.7 - 3.2 percentage points; it only rose in 2 years, with an increase of 1.4 - 2.5 percentage points. After the holiday, the equity market usually rebounds, except in the two years when it rose before the holiday [18]. - The bond market's liquidity usually fluctuates greatly before the National Day and shows a significant seasonal decline after the holiday. However, the calendar effect of Treasury bond interest rates is not obvious. Since 2019, interest rates around the National Day have mostly risen, mainly affected by fundamentals and fiscal policies, which can be divided into three situations [20]. 3. Which Bond Types Are Under Greater Pressure Under Fund Selling Pressure? - In the recent bond market adjustment, the decline of secondary perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long - term bonds favored by public funds is particularly obvious. Compared with last Friday, the interest rates of 3 - 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds generally increased by more than 10BP, while other credit varieties of the same term only increased by about 3 - 7BP. The term spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen by 2BP to 34BP, and the over - decline of China Development Bank bonds compared with Treasury bonds spread from 10Y to 3 - 7Y [3][29]. - This "structural over - decline" reflects the redemption pressure on the liability side of bond funds under the double pressure of weak performance and possible adjustment of redemption fees. From the 23rd to the 25th, the net selling of funds continued to increase, reaching a peak of 68.3 billion yuan on the 25th. The selling was concentrated in 7 - 10Y policy - financial bonds, old Treasury bonds over 10Y, and 7 - 10Y other bonds, with average daily net selling of 8.4 billion yuan, 5.1 billion yuan, and 4.0 billion yuan respectively [3][31]. - Looking ahead, it is recommended to pay attention to the re - evaluation risks of the interest rate tops of ultra - long - term bonds and 5Y secondary perpetual bonds. Ultra - long - term bonds face the risk of supply - demand mismatch, and the buying power of 5Y secondary perpetual bonds is gradually weakening, and the adjustment risk may spread from long - term to short - term and from secondary perpetual bonds to general credit bonds [4][33][35].