Group 1 - German investor confidence has unexpectedly rebounded, driven by an anticipated surge in public spending that offsets concerns over U.S. tariffs [1][4] - The ZEW economic sentiment index rose from 25.2 in May to 47.5 in June, significantly surpassing the median forecast of 35 [1][5] - The current situation index also showed improvement, indicating a stronger economic outlook [1] Group 2 - ZEW Chairman Achim Wambach stated that the fiscal stimulus policies announced by the new government are expected to boost the economy, alongside recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [5] - Analysts predict that Germany will return to growth in 2025 after two consecutive years of contraction, with a GDP growth forecast of 0.2%, which is more optimistic than many recent forecasts of zero growth [5][9] - Deutsche Bank economist Mark Schatenberg noted that while the data exceeded expectations, potential risks from escalating military conflicts in the Middle East have not yet been reflected in the index [9] Group 3 - The German central bank's president, Joachim Nagel, indicated that revised output data for the first quarter could lead to positive growth in 2025, although the central bank still anticipates economic stagnation [9] - If structural issues are decisively addressed, Germany could become a "success story," with growth forecasts of 0.7% and 1.2% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, primarily due to increased defense and infrastructure spending [9] - Some institutions have raised their growth forecasts, with the Ifo Institute increasing its projection by 0.7 percentage points to 1.5%, and the Kiel Institute forecasting a growth of 1.6% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party is considering a cash distribution of 40,000 yen per person to stimulate the economy [1] Group 1 - The proposed cash distribution aims to alleviate financial burdens on households amid rising living costs [1] - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to boost consumer spending and economic recovery [1] - The government is exploring various funding sources to support this cash distribution plan [1]

简要观点 产业服务总部 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较 前一日持平，10 合约基差 146（+7），关注中美贸易谈判进程。基本面 方面，根据钢联统计口径，上周螺纹钢表需环比下滑，可能有端午假期 影响，不过需求季节性走弱只是时间问题，当下长流程钢厂利润尚好、 短流程利润不佳，螺纹产量连续两周下滑，上周库存去化放缓，整体而 言供需相对均衡，后期可能小幅累库。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢 期货价格已经跌至长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面， 政策端，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供 需转向宽松，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行，观望或者 短线交易为主。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，铁矿石盘面震荡运行。钢厂出口生产持续和中美再度谈判对矿价 有所支持。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 719 元/湿吨（-5）。普氏 62%指数 94.95 美元/吨（-0.25），月均 95.70 美元/吨。PBF 基差 60 元/吨（- 1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,839.4 万吨，环+8.8 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 139（-16）。基本面方面，根据钢联统 计口径，上周螺纹钢表需环比下滑，可能有端午假期影响，不过需求季 节性走弱只是时间问题，当下长流程钢厂利润尚好、短流程利润不佳， 螺纹产量连续两周下滑，上周库存去化放缓，整体而言供需相对均衡， 后期可能小幅累库。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格已经跌 至长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，近期国 内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需转向宽松，短 期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行，观望或者短线交易为主。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿石盘面震荡运行。钢厂出口生产持续和中美再度谈判对矿价 有所支持。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 724 元/湿吨（-6）。普氏 62%指数 95.20 美元/吨（-0.90），月均 95.82 美元/吨。PBF 基差 61 元/吨（- 2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,839.4 万吨，环+8.8。45 港 ...

◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业日报 简要观点 周三，螺纹钢期货价格大幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 30 元/吨，10 合约基差 146（-16），主要是因为焦煤价格上涨 带动成材价格走高。基本面方面，根据钢联统计口径，最近一期产销数 据较好，螺纹钢表需持稳，不过需求季节性走弱只是时间问题，当下长 流程钢厂利润尚好、短流程利润不佳，预计螺纹产量稳中走低，库存去 化放缓或者小幅累库。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格已经 跌至长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，近期 国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需转向宽松， 短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行，观望或者短线交易为主。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 2025/6/5 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 周三，铁矿石盘面震荡偏强。钢厂出口生产持续和中美再度谈判预期对 矿价有所支持。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 733 元/湿吨（+6）。普氏 62% 指数 96.35 美元/吨（+1.00） ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Trump's attendance at the U.S. Congress discussion on comprehensive tax legislation highlights significant internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding government spending, green tax policies, and social safety net projects [2] - If the tax bill is successfully passed, it may lead to a decrease in the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which would be unfavorable for gold and beneficial for the repatriation of profits by overseas companies [2] - The rising pressure of U.S. debt is weakening investor confidence in the dollar, posing a threat to its credibility [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has not been able to break through the resistance at $3,250, maintaining a wide trading range between $3,120 and $3,250 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 414,000 barrels per day starting in June, leading Wall Street to lower oil price forecasts [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts an oversupply of 1.1 million barrels per day in the second half of the year, while Goldman Sachs notes increased downward pressure on oil prices due to high OPEC+ production capacity and recession risks [4] - ING's commodity head suggests that OPEC+'s production increase may lead to a year-long oversupply, compounded by uncertain demand due to tariff policies [4] - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicated signs of weakening economic activity, with inflation data moving closer to the 2% target, and uncertainty in tariff policies potentially leading to rising inflation [4] - Technical analysis shows oil prices have struggled to break above $62.50, with a likelihood of trading within a range of $55 to $64 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper has been trading in a range of $4.50 to $4.68 since last week, with the adjustment phase nearing its end [5] - There is a higher probability of an upward breakout, with resistance at $4.68 and support at $4.50 [5]

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher due to various favorable policies and US-China tariff negotiations but later experienced a volatile decline, closing with minor gains across major indices [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.80% to 3342.67 points, while the Shenzhen Composite, ChiNext, and STAR 50 indices increased by 0.46%, 0.57%, and 0.36% respectively, with the North Star 50 index declining by 0.46% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 150.51 billion yuan, an increase from 136.44 billion yuan the previous day [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy interest rate, which is expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [1] - Additional measures include increasing the quota for re-lending for technological innovation and agricultural support by 300 billion yuan each [1] Group 3 - China has officially announced negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, with Vice Premier He Lifeng set to meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during a visit to Switzerland [2] - Despite a decline in US stock indices, futures indicate a potential rise in US stocks following the news of tariff negotiations [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.2250 after a significant rise earlier in the week [2] Group 4 - Although there are signs of policy easing and the initiation of US-China tariff discussions, the A-share market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase until more substantial positive news emerges [3] - The path to achieving results from the tariff negotiations may be lengthy, and unexpected developments during the talks cannot be ruled out [3] - The market is also awaiting the implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, which have not yet materialized [3]

近期，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺就中国宏观经济及相关政策发表最新研究观点，主要观点摘录如下。 国家发改委已明确表示，2025年消费品以旧换新计划的资金数额将大大高于2024年，并将于3月初的全国 两会上进行公布。为促进该计划在3月前继续实施和扩大，政府已下达2025年首批消费品以旧换新资金 810亿元。得益于该笔资金支持，消费电子产品销量在春节假期期间实现激增，国家发改委数据显示，手 机销售收入同比大幅增长182%。2024年，政府从1万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债中，统筹安排1500亿元 人民币支持消费品以旧换新计划。2025年，我们预计政府将从1.3万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债中安排 2000亿元人民币资金，加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新计划。 得益于2024年9月24日以来政府推出的一系列宽松政策措施，中国房地产市场再次呈现出企稳态势。一度 严重负增长的新房销售同比增速在近期出现反弹，降幅收窄接近零。部分一线城市的现房价格出现了自 2021年年中以来的最大涨幅。不过我们认为这种企稳仅限于一线城市，一些自我延续的下行螺旋仍然存 在，目前还没有出现明显的持续复苏迹象。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 十 ...

近期，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺就中国宏观经济及相关政策发表最新研究观点，主要观点摘录如下。 陆挺 野村中国首席经济学家 十四届全国人大三次会议将于2025年3月5日在北京召开，2025年《政府工作报告》也将于同日公布。我 们预计政府会将2025年全年GDP增速目标设为"5.0%左右"。 政府很有可能将2025年的财政赤字率、超长期特别国债净融资额度、地方政府专项债净融资额度分别从 2024年的3.0%、1.0万亿元和4.0万亿元提高到4.0%、1.3万亿元和4.4万亿元。 上调2025年全年GDP增速预测 我们上调2025年全年GDP增速预测至4.5%，主要由于以下关键因素： 预测财政刺激政策将侧重四个方面 政府的财政刺激政策将可能会侧重于以下四个方面：1）向地方政府转移支付；2）为大规模设备更新和 消费品以旧换新计划提供资金；3）通过回购土地或帮助开发商完成预售房屋，来为房地产行业提供资金 支持；4）为低收入家庭提供财政支持，并为鼓励生育提供资金。 国家发改委已明确表示，2025年消费品以旧换新计划的资金数额将大大高于2024年，并将于3月初的全国 两会上进行公布。为促进该计划在3月前继续实施和扩大，政府已 ...