2025年关税的成本几乎完全由美国企业承担，但对宏观经济的影响存在滞后效应。 根据美国财政部数据，2025年美国关税收入增长迅猛。2025年全年，美国国土安全部共征收2870亿美元关税和缴费，同比增长192%。其中，约三分之一在 第四季度增收，较上一季度增长了5.2%。 与此同时，美国通胀虽然仍明显高于2%的目标水平，但并未激增。2025年消费者物价指数（CPI）在年初升至3%以上后，年中开始回落，年底稳定在 2.7%。剔除食品能源后的核心CPI全年同比增长2.6%，远低于经济学家此前预期的3%。个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）11月同比增长2.8%，生产者价格指数 （PPI）11月同比上涨3%。 关税为何没有导致通胀飙升 对于关税为何没有导致通胀飙升，主要有以下几种解释： 原因1：实际关税规模远小于法定税率 到目前为止，美国实际执行的关税政策规模远小于其宣称的规模。 IMF原第一副总裁、哈佛大学经济学教授吉塔·戈皮纳特与芝加哥大学经济学教授布伦特·奈曼的研究指出，美国实际征收的关税税率显著低于官方公布的法 定税率。 截至2025年9月，美国平均贸易加权关税税率在2025年4月达到32.8%的峰值。然而，如果按 ...

格隆汇1月22日｜花旗发布报告称，韩国最早可能于3月推出规模约10万亿韩元（约合68亿美元）的新一 轮财政刺激政策，以应对经济增长不均衡的问题，文化艺术等领域有望获得扶持。此前有数据显示，受 需求全面萎缩影响，韩国经济在 2025 年第四季度意外出现萎缩。这凸显出政策制定者面临的挑战：在 韩元走弱、金融稳定风险上升的背景下，刺激经济增长的政策空间已受到制约。花旗在报告中指 出："财政政策方面，政府可能会动用超额税收收入来增加预算支出，而不会额外发行债券。"近期，韩 国官方就新一轮财政刺激的可能性释放出矛盾信号。韩联社通讯社本周早些时候援引韩国总统政策室长 Kim Yong-beom的话报道称，韩国目前暂不考虑追加预算。而就在此前的周二，韩国总统李在明在内阁 会议上表示，未来或存在追加支出的契机，并要求文化部长官审议文化领域的预算需求。 ...

中信证券研报指出，2025年12月中国社零总额45,136亿元/同比+0.9%，限额以上商品零售总额18,084亿 元/同比-2.0%，剔除汽车、石油类限额以上零售额增速+1.4%。汽车高基数叠加补贴退坡导致降幅走 阔，且消费者政策观望情绪较浓；粮油食品表现稳健，日用品增速转正；可选消费有所回暖，国补品类 受基数影响下增速走低。12月社零读数偏弱，商品销售平淡在预期之内，可选消费有所回暖；服务零售 成为拉动消费抓手。我们认为，由于当前宏观环境仍然偏弱，消费景气的自身修复预计仍需时间，短期 消费整体beta性机会可关注财政刺激类政策的可能性。同时，基于当前产业观察，2026年建议重点关注 财富效应传导、供给端优化推动的经营拐点机会。而长期配置再次强调重视消费结构的变化。 ...

站在今年年底回头看，人民币这一年的走势让很多人没想到——它不但没跌，反而涨了不少。 年初贸易摩擦刚开始时，人民币一度贬到7.4。当时很多人还照着2018年贸易冲突的老经验推测，以为人民币会继续贬 值，甚至可能破8。 （人民币年内走势图） 照大多数人的直观想法，国内经济有压力，外部贸易摩擦又比2018年更激烈，人民币应该像当年那样承受很大贬值压力 才对，怎么还升值了呢？ 但实际情况恰恰相反，人民币从4月份的低点7.4开始一路走高，到现在已经升值了4%，离7这个关口只差一口气。 在我看来，主要有两个原因： 第一，美元今年比较弱，贡献了大约三成的原因； 第二，政策起了支撑作用，贡献了七成。 说美元弱贡献了三成，主要是因为美元跌的时候，人民币并没有跟着大幅升值；而下半年人民币走强的节奏，更是光靠 美元走弱解释不通的。 看看下面这张图： 这是美元指数今年的走势。能明显看出，美元上半年就跌了差不多10%，下半年基本在98附近震荡。 而这期间： 上半年，日元、韩元分别升值9%和8%，人民币只升了2%； 全年来看，日元、韩元还略微贬值（-1%和-0.4%），人民币却整体升值了4%。 所以我觉得， 美元走弱确实在上半年带动了非 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Trump administration is likely to implement tariff reductions and fiscal stimulus measures before the upcoming midterm elections to boost voter sentiment [1][2]. Tariff Reductions - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2026, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. will decrease by approximately 2 percentage points from current levels, although it will still be 9.5 percentage points higher than early 2025 [1][10]. - The Supreme Court is expected to rule that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceed its legal authority, which could lead to a significant reduction in tariffs [3][10]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the IEEPA tariffs, the Trump administration may need to rely on other legal authorizations, such as the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for tariffs of up to 15% for a period of 150 days [3][4]. - Current IEEPA tariffs contribute approximately 7.5 percentage points to the effective tariff rate, with a potential reduction of about 1.6 percentage points if tariffs are capped at 15% [4]. Fiscal Stimulus Measures - The Trump administration may also utilize fiscal policy to improve economic sentiment ahead of the midterm elections, with a potential second round of fiscal stimulus facing significant hurdles [5][8]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the first round of fiscal measures will peak in its impact on growth by the second quarter of 2026, with tax refunds expected to increase by nearly $100 billion from February to April [5][6]. - There is a 50% probability that at least $1,000 in stimulus checks will be issued to Americans by the end of 2026, despite challenges in passing a comprehensive fiscal plan [6][8]. Housing Policy and Regulatory Reforms - Goldman Sachs believes that administrative measures related to housing are likely to be implemented, focusing on government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [9][10]. - Potential options include adjustments in loan pricing, the introduction of 50-year mortgage products, and possibly expanding the GSEs' balance sheets to hold more mortgage-backed securities [9]. - Legislative reforms to simplify the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are also expected to have a significant chance of becoming law in the coming months, which would streamline federal reviews of major infrastructure projects [10].

格隆汇12月8日｜道富投资管理发布《2026年环球市场展望》，对2026年市场前景抱持"审慎乐观"立 场，关税不确定性带来的上行风险大于下行风险，并受惠于人工智能(AI)崛起及主要市场推出更多财政 刺激政策等利好因素。整体而言，道富投资管理看好股票市场，并略倾向美股，尽管美股存在估值偏高 及市场过于集中等隐忧。固定收益方面，基于包括息差偏窄、政策背景，以及更多潜在冲击可能出现等 因素，道富投资管理认为发达经济体的政府债券较企业债券更具吸引力。随着投资者采取更多元化的投 资策略，黄金及其他大宗商品、实体资产及私募市场等资产均会受惠。 ...

道富投资管理发布《2026年环球市场展望：专注前行，聚焦未来》，对2026年市场前景抱持"审慎乐 观"立场，关税不确定性带来的上行风险大于下行风险，并受惠于人工智能(AI)崛起及主要市场推出更 多财政刺激政策等利好因素。整体而言，该行看好股票市场，并略倾向美股，尽管美股存在估值偏高及 市场过于集中等隐忧。对非美国投资者而言，美元走弱或影响收益，但可选择性作出避险措施。 报告指出，美国及全球经济预计在明年持续增长，但市场将维持一定的焦虑情绪。 美联储在2026年将有空间进行最多三次降息。英国银行在宽松进程中相对落后，预期未来数季将急起直 追，报告亦指出欧洲央行短期内将暂停利率调整。同时，日本央行或延续谨慎加息的策略。 在亚洲，中国与日本都准备在未来一年中增加净财政支出以提振经济。中国正转向刺激国内消费和基建 投资的政策，并全力加强在AI领域的领导地位和创新。中国股市与其他主要市场的相关性较低，可为 投资者提供分散风险的效益。 道富投资管理首席投资总监Lori Heinel表示，该行维持审慎乐观的立场，仍然相信市场在来年将录得健 康增长。该行预期发达市场将推出更多刺激政策，货币政策则逐步正常化，利好股票市场，而与 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to present moderate accumulation risks in 2026, with investment opportunities arising from unpredictable triggers [1] - A flexible asset allocation strategy is essential, as investors should seek overlooked areas through rigorous fundamental research and innovative approaches in the corporate bond market [1] - The fixed income investors will face diverging economic cycles among major economies, with notable differences in inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth direction [1] Group 2 - The bond market performance in 2025 showed significant divergence across regions and maturities, a trend expected to continue into 2026 due to varying economic growth, employment markets, and inflation outlooks [2] - The U.S. economic outlook for 2026 remains positive, supported by fiscal stimulus and easing monetary policy, although there are concerns about excessive stimulus measures [2] - Passive management strategies may lead to overexposure to underperforming assets, increasing risk and potentially dragging down returns [2] Group 3 - Global bond investment portfolios are seen as more advantageous, given robust economic growth and dovish policy directions [3] - The European economy is expected to improve steadily into 2026, although Germany's fiscal stimulus may not significantly alter overall Eurozone growth [3] - Corporate bonds have performed well over the past year, but the valuation starting point will be crucial for future returns, with current credit risk premiums at historical lows [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a $110 billion fiscal stimulus plan by the Japanese government has led to a significant sell-off of long-term Japanese bonds, resulting in the highest yields since the 2008 financial crisis, which may trigger a reversal of approximately $20 trillion in yen carry trades, posing a threat to global risk assets [1][3][6]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Reaction - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 1.78%, the highest level since June 2008, while the 30-year yield reached a historic high of 3.35% [3]. - A proposal for a supplementary budget exceeding 25 trillion yen (approximately $161 billion) was made to fund the stimulus plan, indicating a willingness to issue more bonds [3]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction reflects a lack of confidence in Japan's sovereign debt sustainability, with the debt burden at about 250% of GDP [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth since Q1 2024 [4]. - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar, which fell below 155 yen for the first time since February, has raised concerns about rising import costs [5]. - The Japanese government is facing pressure to balance fiscal expansion with the need to support the yen, as further depreciation could exacerbate inflationary pressures [5]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The potential unwinding of yen carry trades could lead to a tightening of global liquidity and a sell-off in risk assets, with correlations observed between carry trade unwinding and declines in the S&P 500 [6][7]. - Emerging market currencies may experience a 1% to 3% decline within 30 days due to the unwinding of these trades, while U.S. Treasury yields could rise by 15 to 40 basis points [7]. - The tightening of liquidity is expected to impact all risk assets, particularly technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, as investors begin to hedge against risks [7].

Core Points - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in six quarters, with a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP for Q3, contrary to economists' expectations of a 2.4% drop [1][2] - The contraction is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly on the automotive sector, which has significantly affected Japan's export industry [2] - The Japanese government has revised its economic growth forecast for FY2025 from 1.2% to 0.7% due to ongoing economic pressures from U.S. tariffs and rising prices [2] Economic Indicators - Japan's Q3 GDP decreased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, with exports down 1.2% and imports down 0.1% [1] - Personal consumption, which accounts for over half of Japan's economy, saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while business investment rose by 1.0% [1] - Private residential investment fell by 9.4%, contributing to a negative impact on domestic demand [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The negative GDP data may hinder the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates, despite core inflation exceeding the 2% target for three and a half years [3] - The Bank of Japan has maintained its interest rate at 0.5% since January, and the latest GDP figures may lead to a pause in rate hikes during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [3] - Analysts suggest that if upcoming economic indicators show a rebound in Q4, the Bank of Japan may consider resuming rate hikes in January [3]