Group 1: Macro Analysis - The financial data for September shows stable performance, with expectations for credit demand to recover as policy financial tools are implemented and fiscal spending accelerates [2] - The significant year-on-year increase in household deposits indicates a slowdown in the "migration" of deposits, potentially linked to the decline in the stock market's "profit effect" [2] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 are showing a contrasting trend, reflecting the current liquidity conditions [2] Group 2: Company Research - Semiconductor Equipment - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) has completed a private placement and continues to see high growth in orders for the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit forecasts of 1.476 billion, 1.829 billion, and 2.285 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 59x, 47x, and 38x [3] - Huafeng Measurement and Control (688200.SH) reported steady revenue growth in H1 2025, with significant increases in overseas sales, and net profit forecasts of 459 million, 605 million, and 763 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with PE ratios of 56x, 43x, and 34x [4] Group 3: Company Research - Beverage Industry - Mixue Group (2097.HK) is projected to achieve net profits of 5.690 billion, 6.694 billion, and 7.699 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 14.99, 17.63, and 20.28 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 27x, 23x, and 20x [5] - The company benefits from industrial capabilities and a cost structure that is improving due to economies of scale, reinforcing its competitive advantage in the sub-10 yuan price segment [5] - The establishment of a robust supply chain and the operational streamlining of its sub-brand Lucky Coffee are expected to continue attracting consumers through a "low price + explosive products" strategy [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has both "long - term concerns" and "immediate worries" this week. The short - selling inertia persists, but the buying of bonds by large banks and central bank operations have played a stabilizing role, and interest rates have recovered after consecutive increases. However, more positive and definite signals are needed to reverse the short - selling inertia [1][7]. - The calendar effect of the bond market is not obvious, and holidays do not change the main trend of the market. The main factors influencing bond market trends around the National Day are the fundamentals and fiscal policies [18][20]. - In the bond market adjustment, the decline of secondary perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long - term bonds favored by public funds is particularly obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the re - evaluation risks of the interest rate tops of ultra - long - term bonds and 5Y secondary perpetual bonds [3][33]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market has "long - term concerns" and "immediate worries". The short - selling inertia remains, and the market is worried about the formal implementation of the fund fee solicitation draft and the introduction of unexpected fiscal stimulus policies, as well as the current cross - quarter liquidity support and fund liability - side redemption pressure. The expectation of large banks' entry and the central bank's restart of bond - buying can drive interest rates down, but the extent and sustainability are not firm [1][7]. - From Monday to Friday, the bond market showed different trends. Overall, compared with September 19, by September 26, the 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y ChinaBond Treasury bond yields decreased by 0.7BP, increased by 0.5BP, decreased by 0.2BP, and increased by 1.7BP respectively [7][9][11]. 2. The Bond Market Calendar Effect - The equity market usually has a strong calendar effect around the National Day. Before the holiday, investors are cautious and tend to leave the market, and after the holiday, the market usually rebounds. In the past 9 years since 2015, the Wind All - A Index fell in 6 years in the five trading days before the National Day, with a decline of 0.7 - 3.2 percentage points; it only rose in 2 years, with an increase of 1.4 - 2.5 percentage points. After the holiday, the equity market usually rebounds, except in the two years when it rose before the holiday [18]. - The bond market's liquidity usually fluctuates greatly before the National Day and shows a significant seasonal decline after the holiday. However, the calendar effect of Treasury bond interest rates is not obvious. Since 2019, interest rates around the National Day have mostly risen, mainly affected by fundamentals and fiscal policies, which can be divided into three situations [20]. 3. Which Bond Types Are Under Greater Pressure Under Fund Selling Pressure? - In the recent bond market adjustment, the decline of secondary perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long - term bonds favored by public funds is particularly obvious. Compared with last Friday, the interest rates of 3 - 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds generally increased by more than 10BP, while other credit varieties of the same term only increased by about 3 - 7BP. The term spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen by 2BP to 34BP, and the over - decline of China Development Bank bonds compared with Treasury bonds spread from 10Y to 3 - 7Y [3][29]. - This "structural over - decline" reflects the redemption pressure on the liability side of bond funds under the double pressure of weak performance and possible adjustment of redemption fees. From the 23rd to the 25th, the net selling of funds continued to increase, reaching a peak of 68.3 billion yuan on the 25th. The selling was concentrated in 7 - 10Y policy - financial bonds, old Treasury bonds over 10Y, and 7 - 10Y other bonds, with average daily net selling of 8.4 billion yuan, 5.1 billion yuan, and 4.0 billion yuan respectively [3][31]. - Looking ahead, it is recommended to pay attention to the re - evaluation risks of the interest rate tops of ultra - long - term bonds and 5Y secondary perpetual bonds. Ultra - long - term bonds face the risk of supply - demand mismatch, and the buying power of 5Y secondary perpetual bonds is gradually weakening, and the adjustment risk may spread from long - term to short - term and from secondary perpetual bonds to general credit bonds [4][33][35].

美国东部时间9月15日，位于华盛顿的联邦上诉法院驳回了司法部的紧急申请，维持了下级法院暂时阻止总统特朗普撤换美联储理事库克的禁令。这意味着 库克将参加本周的议息会议。 库克是美联储首位非裔女性理事，任期原本应到2038年。在上一次议息会议上，她是支持美联储观望、拒绝因特朗普施压而降息的理事之一。 特朗普于8月底指控库克先后将在密歇根州和佐治亚州的两处房产都申报为主要居所，涉嫌欺诈，并宣布将她解职。 5天前，华盛顿法官科布作出初步裁定，特朗普方面没有证明库克作为美联储理事的行为和工作表现存在渎职或欺诈，且其行为损害了美联储理事会和美国 公共利益。在相关诉讼案审理期间，库克将继续任原职。特朗普团队随后要求上诉法院暂停该禁令。 就在美联储召开货币政策会议前夕，两项人事安排宣告确定，这为其利率决策环境增添了不确定性因素。 同样在9月15日，在复核库克的财产记录之后，密歇根州安娜堡房产税管理局称未发现其存在违规行为的证据。这一直截了当的澄清，很可能成为库克方面 有力反驳特朗普解雇理由的关键。 与此同时，特朗普提名的美联储新理事人选米兰已迅速在参议院通过最终投票表决，暂时填补因另一名理事库格勒辞职产生的空缺，任期至明年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing perception among economists that Japan's economy may be experiencing a "supply shortage" due to production capacity not keeping up with orders, contrasting with the government's assessment of demand deficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Gap - The supply and demand gap is a crucial indicator for assessing economic conditions and price trends, with negative values indicating economic stagnation and positive values suggesting overheating [1]. - The Bank of Japan and the Cabinet Office have reported negative supply and demand gaps in recent years, leading to repeated fiscal stimulus measures aimed at boosting demand [1]. - The Cabinet Office has not declared an end to deflation despite a 3% increase in prices, primarily because the supply and demand gap remains negative [1]. Group 2: Discrepancies in Estimates - Private sector estimates, such as those from Societe Generale and Mizuho Research, indicate that Japan's supply and demand gap has been positive since late 2021 and mid-2022, respectively [2]. - The discrepancy between official and private estimates is significant, with a difference of 14 trillion yen (approximately 88 billion USD) reported for the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - Economists attribute the positive supply and demand gap to severe supply capacity shortages rather than economic overheating, particularly highlighting labor shortages [2]. Group 3: Labor Market and Productivity - The potential growth rate, which reflects supply capacity, is influenced by labor, capital investment, and technological innovation, with labor time decreasing due to reforms [3]. - Labor time in Japan is expected to remain below 2019 levels until 2024, primarily due to policies limiting overtime and promoting paid leave [3]. - The Bank of Japan acknowledges the negative impact of labor shortages on supply capacity, indicating a more severe labor market tightness than what macroeconomic supply and demand gaps suggest [3]. Group 4: Investment and Economic Growth - Insufficient investment in machinery has also hindered economic growth, with Japan's capital investment contribution being only one-eighth of that of the United States since 2020 [4]. - Redirecting retained earnings towards investments in growth areas such as artificial intelligence is deemed essential for economic progress [4].

Group 1: Euro's Initial Decline and Challenges - The euro faced significant depreciation, with the exchange rate against the dollar dropping below 1.0177, marking a 20-year low due to a "triple pressure" scenario [2] - The eurozone economy, particularly Germany, is experiencing structural weaknesses, with the manufacturing PMI remaining below the growth threshold for 12 consecutive months, indicating severe economic challenges [4] - Political instability in Germany, including significant divisions over fiscal policy, has raised concerns about the eurozone's fiscal discipline [5] Group 2: Dollar's Strength and Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve's high interest rates (4.25%-4.5%) have increased the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a surge in capital inflows into the U.S. market, with $1.2 trillion entering U.S. stocks and bonds in Q4 2024, 35% of which came from the eurozone [3] - German and French institutional investors have reduced their holdings in local bonds in favor of U.S. Treasuries, further exerting downward pressure on the euro [3] Group 3: Euro's Recovery and Driving Factors - In March 2025, the euro began a strong rebound, characterized by a "V" shaped recovery, driven by changes in monetary policy expectations, fiscal stimulus measures, and a crisis of confidence in the dollar [6] - The European Central Bank's interest rate cuts and the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe have led to a reallocation of global capital towards eurozone bonds, supporting the euro's recovery [8] Group 4: Structural Issues and Long-term Challenges - Despite the euro's rebound, structural issues such as industrial hollowing and an aging population continue to pose long-term challenges for the eurozone economy [20][19] - The eurozone's energy transition and fiscal coordination difficulties hinder effective economic policy, impacting the euro's stability [21] Group 5: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment Influences - Geopolitical events and market sentiment significantly affect the euro's exchange rate, with trade tariffs and central bank policy shifts amplifying volatility [16][17] - The eurozone faces external competition from the U.S. and China, which poses additional challenges to its economic position in the global market [22]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese super-long-term government bonds rebounded amid pre-election volatility, reversing earlier sell-off concerns related to potential increased government spending due to the upcoming Senate elections [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - On Wednesday, prices of Japanese super-long-term government bonds increased, with the 30-year bond yield dropping by 10 basis points to 3.06% and the 40-year yield also decreasing by 10 basis points to 3.38% [1] - The 30-year yield had previously surged to its highest level since 1999 on Tuesday, indicating significant market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Katsutoshi Inadome, a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, noted that investors likely engaged in buying to counteract the severe sell-off observed the previous day [1] - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, commented on the ongoing political tension as elections approach, suggesting that the market has largely released its sell-off sentiment and may remain cautious until election results are announced [1]

Group 1 - German investor confidence has unexpectedly rebounded, driven by an anticipated surge in public spending that offsets concerns over U.S. tariffs [1][4] - The ZEW economic sentiment index rose from 25.2 in May to 47.5 in June, significantly surpassing the median forecast of 35 [1][5] - The current situation index also showed improvement, indicating a stronger economic outlook [1] Group 2 - ZEW Chairman Achim Wambach stated that the fiscal stimulus policies announced by the new government are expected to boost the economy, alongside recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [5] - Analysts predict that Germany will return to growth in 2025 after two consecutive years of contraction, with a GDP growth forecast of 0.2%, which is more optimistic than many recent forecasts of zero growth [5][9] - Deutsche Bank economist Mark Schatenberg noted that while the data exceeded expectations, potential risks from escalating military conflicts in the Middle East have not yet been reflected in the index [9] Group 3 - The German central bank's president, Joachim Nagel, indicated that revised output data for the first quarter could lead to positive growth in 2025, although the central bank still anticipates economic stagnation [9] - If structural issues are decisively addressed, Germany could become a "success story," with growth forecasts of 0.7% and 1.2% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, primarily due to increased defense and infrastructure spending [9] - Some institutions have raised their growth forecasts, with the Ifo Institute increasing its projection by 0.7 percentage points to 1.5%, and the Kiel Institute forecasting a growth of 1.6% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party is considering a cash distribution of 40,000 yen per person to stimulate the economy [1] Group 1 - The proposed cash distribution aims to alleviate financial burdens on households amid rising living costs [1] - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to boost consumer spending and economic recovery [1] - The government is exploring various funding sources to support this cash distribution plan [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black industry is expected to have a mixed performance with different products showing varying trends. The market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy, and macro - economic news [1][3]. - **Specific products**: - **螺纹钢**: Futures prices are expected to move weakly in a range due to potential seasonal demand slowdown and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [1]. - **铁矿石**: The iron ore market is likely to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach as it is more affected by macro news and port inventory is expected to continue decreasing [1]. - **双焦**: Both coking coal and coke markets are expected to continue oscillating in the short term. For coking coal, focus on coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand. For coke, pay attention to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹钢** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+7) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The supply - demand is relatively balanced currently, with production declining for two consecutive weeks and inventory de - stocking slowing down. There may be a slight inventory build - up later [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. Given the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies and the loosening of real - world supply - demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. **铁矿石** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 719 yuan/wet ton (- 5). The Platts 62% index was 94.95 dollars/ton (- 0.25), with a monthly average of 95.70 dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 60 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104.04. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [1]. - **Outlook**: The iron ore market is mainly affected by macro news. With the high - yield shipments of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year, the port inventory is expected to continue decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. **双焦** - **Coking coal** - **Supply**: Some coal mines have experienced phased production cuts, but the overall supply is still loose. Coal mine inventories are high, and the intermediate - link procurement is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: After the third round of price cuts for coke, coking enterprises' profit margins have been further compressed, and they maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy. Steel mills' procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The production rhythm of coking enterprises is differentiated, with some experiencing passive production cuts due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - **Demand**: The steel market is entering the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Steel mills' demand for coke has limited growth, and their procurement is cautious [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains loose. Although the supply has marginally shrunk, the demand support is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. **产经要闻** - **Industrial projects**: On June 7, Jin'an Mining's 9 - series permanent magnet ferrite ultra - pure iron powder pre - fired material project was put into production. Shanxi Jianlong and Shanxi Meijin resumed production, while Luzhou Xinyang Vanadium Titanium Steel plans to reduce production due to high - temperature weather [6]. - **Real estate**: From June 2nd to June 8th, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 26.9% week - on - week and 17.5% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 11.8% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year [6]. - **Construction machinery**: In May 2025, the domestic sales of various excavators were 18,202 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. From January to May, a total of 101,700 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [6]. - **Government bonds**: As of June 10, 2025, the new issuance scale of domestic land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, involving 442 projects and 24 special bonds [6].

Report Overview - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black industries including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][3][4] Rebar Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 139 (-16) [1] - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The demand seasonally weakens over time. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Rebar production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and there may be a slight inventory build - up later [1] - **Price Forecast**: The current rebar futures price has fallen close to the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. There is a low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term, and the supply - demand has turned loose. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1] Iron Ore Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton (-6), the Platts 62% index was 95.20 dollars/ton (-0.90), and the PBF basis was 61 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - **Supply - Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04. The daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The continuous price reduction of coal in the raw material end has maintained steel production, so iron ore is relatively strong. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] - **Price Forecast**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news, with little impact from fundamentals. Technically, the long - short forces are not obvious. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Coking Coal Analysis - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have reduced production due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable. The online auction of Mongolian coking coal has failed continuously, and the downstream procurement is still cautious [3] - **Demand**: After the continuous price cuts of coke, the market pessimism has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills have weak procurement enthusiasm, and the demand for coking coal is insufficient [3] - **Price Forecast**: The supply - demand of the coking coal market remains loose. The short - term price center may continue to move down, and it is necessary to focus on the improvement of coke demand, import coal price fluctuations, and coal mine inventory depletion [3] Coke Analysis - **Supply**: Although coke enterprises are under shipment pressure and inventory is accumulating, most still have some profit margins, and the supply reduction is limited. After the third price cut, some enterprises may adjust production, and supply is expected to shrink [4] - **Demand**: The steel market is in the off - season, terminal demand is difficult to improve, iron ore production growth is weak, and the demand for coke is limited [4] - **Price Forecast**: The coke market fundamentals are loose, and the short - term price may continue to be weak. It is necessary to focus on steel terminal demand, coke enterprise profit changes, and coking coal price transmission [4] Industry News - On June 9, local time, Chinese and US officials held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London [7] - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreasing by 10.2% [7] - Baowu Steel's ex - factory prices in July are expected to remain flat [7] - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [7] - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% [7]