Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has both "long - term concerns" and "immediate worries" this week. The short - selling inertia persists, but the buying of bonds by large banks and central bank operations have played a stabilizing role, and interest rates have recovered after consecutive increases. However, more positive and definite signals are needed to reverse the short - selling inertia [1][7]. - The calendar effect of the bond market is not obvious, and holidays do not change the main trend of the market. The main factors influencing bond market trends around the National Day are the fundamentals and fiscal policies [18][20]. - In the bond market adjustment, the decline of secondary perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long - term bonds favored by public funds is particularly obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the re - evaluation risks of the interest rate tops of ultra - long - term bonds and 5Y secondary perpetual bonds [3][33]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market has "long - term concerns" and "immediate worries". The short - selling inertia remains, and the market is worried about the formal implementation of the fund fee solicitation draft and the introduction of unexpected fiscal stimulus policies, as well as the current cross - quarter liquidity support and fund liability - side redemption pressure. The expectation of large banks' entry and the central bank's restart of bond - buying can drive interest rates down, but the extent and sustainability are not firm [1][7]. - From Monday to Friday, the bond market showed different trends. Overall, compared with September 19, by September 26, the 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y ChinaBond Treasury bond yields decreased by 0.7BP, increased by 0.5BP, decreased by 0.2BP, and increased by 1.7BP respectively [7][9][11]. 2. The Bond Market Calendar Effect - The equity market usually has a strong calendar effect around the National Day. Before the holiday, investors are cautious and tend to leave the market, and after the holiday, the market usually rebounds. In the past 9 years since 2015, the Wind All - A Index fell in 6 years in the five trading days before the National Day, with a decline of 0.7 - 3.2 percentage points; it only rose in 2 years, with an increase of 1.4 - 2.5 percentage points. After the holiday, the equity market usually rebounds, except in the two years when it rose before the holiday [18]. - The bond market's liquidity usually fluctuates greatly before the National Day and shows a significant seasonal decline after the holiday. However, the calendar effect of Treasury bond interest rates is not obvious. Since 2019, interest rates around the National Day have mostly risen, mainly affected by fundamentals and fiscal policies, which can be divided into three situations [20]. 3. Which Bond Types Are Under Greater Pressure Under Fund Selling Pressure? - In the recent bond market adjustment, the decline of secondary perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long - term bonds favored by public funds is particularly obvious. Compared with last Friday, the interest rates of 3 - 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds generally increased by more than 10BP, while other credit varieties of the same term only increased by about 3 - 7BP. The term spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen by 2BP to 34BP, and the over - decline of China Development Bank bonds compared with Treasury bonds spread from 10Y to 3 - 7Y [3][29]. - This "structural over - decline" reflects the redemption pressure on the liability side of bond funds under the double pressure of weak performance and possible adjustment of redemption fees. From the 23rd to the 25th, the net selling of funds continued to increase, reaching a peak of 68.3 billion yuan on the 25th. The selling was concentrated in 7 - 10Y policy - financial bonds, old Treasury bonds over 10Y, and 7 - 10Y other bonds, with average daily net selling of 8.4 billion yuan, 5.1 billion yuan, and 4.0 billion yuan respectively [3][31]. - Looking ahead, it is recommended to pay attention to the re - evaluation risks of the interest rate tops of ultra - long - term bonds and 5Y secondary perpetual bonds. Ultra - long - term bonds face the risk of supply - demand mismatch, and the buying power of 5Y secondary perpetual bonds is gradually weakening, and the adjustment risk may spread from long - term to short - term and from secondary perpetual bonds to general credit bonds [4][33][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy regular meeting continues the "supportive" monetary policy idea. While "maintaining abundant liquidity", it also "prevents fund idling", and the pattern of "ample quantity and stable price" in narrow - sense liquidity may continue. The mention of "implementing various monetary policy measures and fully releasing policy effects" does not necessarily mean that the focus of monetary policy is on existing policies, and incremental policies can also be expected [1][3]. - The cross - quarter capital market may be relatively loose. The cross - quarter capital price will first rise and then fall. The central bank's injection, fiscal expenditure, and smooth bank financing may contribute to a loose cross - quarter capital pattern [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations: Active Injection of Medium - term Liquidity Continues - **Short - term liquidity**: In the past week (9/22 - 9/26), the central bank's open - market pledged reverse repurchase had a net injection of 6406 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the balance of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase was 24674 billion yuan, slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (9/28 - 9/30), the due amount of the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase is 5166 billion yuan, and the central bank may continue to support short - term liquidity [11]. - **Long - term liquidity**: In the past week, the central bank renewed 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF, with 3000 billion yuan due, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. MLF has had a net injection for 4 consecutive months [12]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance: The Net Payment of Government Bonds in the Next Week is 212.1 Billion Yuan, with Small Supply Pressure - **Net payment of government bonds**: In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 128.6 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 59.4 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 188.1 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 212.1 billion yuan, with a net payment of 157.3 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 54.8 billion yuan for local bonds. The overall net payment pressure is small, and the net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday [19]. - **Issuance rhythm and progress of government bonds**: As of 9/26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 81.1%, a decrease of 2.2% compared with the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 1.26 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1%, an increase of 3.0% in the past week, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is about 0.88 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 99.8%, and the remaining issuance space in 2025 is 4.3 billion yuan. The issuance rhythm of new local bonds is faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 and 2023 [20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market: Bill Interest Rates Slightly Recovered at the End of September At the end of September, bill interest rates rose significantly. On 9/26, the 3M direct - discount rate for national - share bills was 1.45% (1.33% on 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 1.34% (1.25% on 9/19); the 6M direct - discount rate was 0.92% (unchanged from 9/19), and the transfer - discount rate was 0.85% (0.86% on 9/19) [30]. 3.1.4 Capital Review: Cross - quarter Capital Costs First Rose and Then Fell - **Capital sentiment index**: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, the capital market tightened in the middle of the week, and the capital sentiment index reached 60 on Wednesday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened [33]. - **Capital price**: Affected by the new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange and the central bank's reverse - repurchase injection falling short of expectations, capital interest rates rose from Tuesday to Thursday. After the central bank's large - scale injection of 14D reverse repurchase on Friday, the cross - quarter capital market significantly loosened. On 9/26, DR001 decreased by about 15bp to 1.32% compared with 9/19, and DR007 increased by 2bp to 1.53% [36]. - **Capital stratification**: Affected by the cross - quarter period, the spread between DR007 and DR001 widened by 17BP compared with the previous week. During the past week, two new shares were subscribed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and GC001 rose to a maximum of 1.69% [37]. - **Pledged - repurchase trading volume and overnight trading volume ratio**: The overnight trading volume ratio is still relatively high but has decreased compared with the previous week. Affected by the cross - quarter period, overnight trading volume decreased significantly. Generally, "rolling overnight" is still a good strategy under the condition of loose capital. On 9/26, the overnight trading volume ratios of DR, R, and GC were 89%, 37%, and 86% respectively, still at a relatively high level [42]. - **Capital supply and demand**: Currently, the net financing of large - scale banks is still at a seasonal high. On 9/26, the net financing of the banking system was 3.8 trillion yuan, including 4 trillion yuan from large - scale banks, and joint - stock banks turned to net financing. The net financing demand of core institutions in the non - banking system remained basically stable, and the net financing scale of funds, securities firms, insurance companies, and other products was 5.54 trillion yuan, slightly higher than that on 9/19. The net financing scale of core net - financing providers in the non - banking system (money - market funds, wealth - management products, and other institutions) decreased slightly. In terms of different maturities, large - scale banks' net financing is mainly overnight; funds and securities firms' net financing is mainly R001; insurance companies and other products have longer financing maturities, mainly R007; money - market funds have a small amount of net financing in R001 and a large amount of net financing in R007 and R014 [46]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Continuous Net Repayment, and the Long - term Liability Pressure of Banks May Be Controllable - **Issuance situation**: In the past week, the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 673.6 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 308.6 billion yuan. As of 9/26, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was about 574 billion yuan. In terms of different issuers, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the past week was in the order of state - owned banks (313 billion yuan)> city commercial banks (236.1 billion yuan)> joint - stock banks (201.5 billion yuan)> rural commercial banks (36.1 billion yuan). In terms of different maturities, the weighted issuance term of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly in the past week, and the weighted issuance term of state - owned, joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks was 0.43 years [53]. - **Primary and secondary market prices**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of different maturities for state - owned and joint - stock banks remained basically stable. The average issuance interest rates of state - owned banks for 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y in the week were 1.59%, 1.58%, 1.65%, 1.68%, and 1.69% respectively. The secondary - market yield of certificates of deposit increased slightly. On 9/26, the 1Y AAA certificate of deposit's maturity yield was 1.69%, up 1BP from 9/19 [58].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the liquidity tightened, mainly due to tax payments, concentrated government bond issuances, and increased capital demand from new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The capital interest rates rose significantly to a relatively high level since the second quarter, with increased volatility. The willingness of large - state - owned banks to lend in the inter - bank market needs further restoration, and the central bank maintained net injections, with relatively restrained injections in the first half - week [1][11]. - When approaching the quarter - end, in addition to seasonal disturbances, non - seasonal factors such as more prominent credit expansion at the end of the quarter and the relatively weak "resilience" of large - state - owned banks' lending willingness may amplify the volatility of quarter - end capital interest rates. However, factors such as accelerated fiscal spending and the central bank's support, along with the reform of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method, may form positive factors. Overall, the cross - quarter capital situation may present a pattern of "stable with concerns", with controllable pressure but potentially enlarged fluctuations [2][21]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1. How to Assess the Cross - Quarter Liquidity Pressure? - **This Week's Liquidity Tightening**: This week, the liquidity tightened due to tax payments, government bond issuances, and new stock subscriptions. The capital interest rates rose significantly, and the central bank maintained net injections. The pressure eased towards the end of the week [11]. - **Differences in This Quarter - End**: Compared with previous years, this quarter - end may see more prominent credit expansion. The lending willingness of large - state - owned banks has shown weaker "resilience", which may increase the volatility of quarter - end capital interest rates. However, fiscal spending and the central bank's support, as well as the reform of the 14 - day reverse repurchase tender method, may have a positive impact [21]. 3.2. Open Market: Over 2 Trillion Yuan to Mature Next Week - **This Week's Operations**: During the tax - payment period this week, the central bank maintained net injections of reverse repurchases, with relatively restrained injections in the first half - week and increased injections in the second half. As of September 19, the balance of reverse repurchases was 182.68 billion yuan, an increase of 56.23 billion yuan compared to September 12 [33][34]. - **Next Week's Maturities**: From September 22 - 26, the open - market maturities will exceed 2 trillion yuan, including 182.68 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 30 billion yuan of MLF [3][33]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Issuance Scale to Decline Next Week - **This Week's Situation**: This week, the net payment of government bonds was 40.3 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of national debt this year reached 5.5435 trillion yuan, with a progress of 90%, and the cumulative issuance of new local bonds was 4.2292 trillion yuan, with a progress of 81% [43][44]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 41.31 billion yuan, a decline from this week. The net payment of national debt will be - 8.97 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 15.05 billion yuan [4][43]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - **Forecast Results**: It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in September 2025 will be about 1.73%, a month - on - month increase of about 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points [46]. 3.5. Money Market: Net Lending of Large - State - Owned Banks Declined - **Interest Rate Changes**: As of September 19, compared with September 12, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 all increased. The overnight and 7 - day SHIBOR and CNH HIBOR also changed to varying degrees. The interest rates of interest rate swaps and bill discounts also had corresponding changes [5][49]. - **Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, while that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged repurchase of national debt increased [61]. - **Net Lending**: This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 2.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 377.2 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the average net lending of large - state - owned banks was 3.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 264.6 billion yuan [67]. 3.6. Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Issuance Scale Increased - **Overall Situation**: This week, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 98.35 billion yuan, with a net financing of 896 million yuan, an increase compared with last week [74]. - **By Issuer**: State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. The issuance proportions of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed compared with last week [74]. - **By Maturity**: 3 - month certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale, and 6 - month certificates of deposit had the highest net financing. The issuance proportions of different maturities also changed [74]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Rose - **By Maturity**: The yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit with different maturities all increased [98]. - **By Credit Rating**: The yields of 1 - year certificates of deposit with different credit ratings all increased [98][99][100].

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in equity market performance, driven by the participation of stabilizing funds and a growing fear of missing out among investors [2][6][15] - The report highlights a notable rise in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increasing by 1.04% and 1.44% respectively, while the technology sector showed strong performance [2][6] - The report discusses the volatility in oil and gold prices, with oil prices experiencing a sharp decline followed by a slight rebound, reflecting market stabilization [3][4] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3455.97, up by 1.04%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.44% to 3960.07 [1] - The report notes that the technology sector, particularly the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50, saw significant gains of 3.11% and 1.73% respectively [2] - The bond market showed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds underperforming compared to short-term bonds, as indicated by the slight increase in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds [2][6] Market Sentiment and Trends - Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a shift towards observing price movements in oil and gold after significant fluctuations [3] - The report mentions that the recent influx of funds into stock ETFs indicates a growing bullish sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the increase in options trading volume [8][9] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market rally is reminiscent of previous periods where stabilizing funds led to significant upward movements in stock prices [12][14][15] Sector Analysis - The report identifies potential investment opportunities across various sectors, including consumer goods, technology, and military industries, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [14][15] - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment approach, particularly in light of the current market conditions and the potential for volatility [15]