投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-10-09 股市⾛势积极，债市短期震荡 风险因子：1）增量资金不足；2）期权流动性不及预期；3）增量政 策超预期；4）股市上涨超预期；5）货币不及预期。 股指期货：节后⾛势积极 股指期权：做空波动率策略可适当进场 国债期货：短期债市震荡偏谨慎 股指期货方面，节后走势积极。 假日期间，离岸香港市场先扬后 抑，整体收平为主，其中半导体、电气设备、涨价链领涨，映射至A股市 场，对于反内卷及双创风格有利。其中后半周恒指转弱，猜测与美元指数 走势有关，伴随日本新任首相确认，日元贬值推动美元表现，并压制港股 市场，而后续美元定价权预计回归至非农就业数据，弱美元的基准假设不 变，故不会对风险资产产生持续影响。展望节后走势，预计偏向积极，其 中逻辑如下，其一，十五五预期偏向正面，提供看涨期权，其二，大型科 技股持续跑赢市场，隐含机构资金积极布局态度，其三，节前休息资金有 望再度加仓。在内资机构主导的背景下，双创预计占优，中证1000、中证 2000表现次之。 股指期权方面，做空波动率策略可适当进场。回顾节前期权策略方 面，如有权益持仓 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 整体来看，权益市场在国庆假期前后通常有较强的日历效应，节前以谨慎 离场为主，节后通常补涨。 债市资金面节前通常波动较大、节后季节性明显回落；但国债利率本身日 历效应并不明显。复盘 2019 年以来表现来看，国庆前后利率多以上行为 主，主要关注因素在于基本面和财政政策。可分类为三种情况： 1）2019、2020、2021 年，节后利率延续节前的上行态势，行情主线分别 是中美贸易谈判推进、基本面数据表现偏强、通胀担忧升温。 2）2022、2024 年，利率由节前的上行态势扭转为节后下行态势。前者主 因节前地产积极政策出台、宽信用预期升温，而节后坚决防疫政策信号加 强；后者主因节后股市涨幅放缓，债市迎来大跌之后的修复。 3）2023 年，国庆前后债市延续震荡略偏空的格局。主要逻辑在于资金面 偏紧，叠加特殊再融资债开始发行。 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 长假前后，债市表现如何？ 1、本周债市行情回顾：做空惯性中，期待维稳力量入场 本周，债市"远忧近虑"并存，做空惯性仍在，但大行买债和央行操作也 及时起到维稳效果，利率在连续"上台阶"之后有所修复。但综合来看， 做空惯性仍有待更积极、更确定的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Important news: Ant Fund released data on the profitability of its fund investors; the scale of newly issued funds in a single week reached a new high in nearly three years, with science and technology innovation bond ETFs becoming the absolute main force; multiple bond funds announced adjustments to net value precision [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Important News 1.1 Market Dynamics - The reform of fund fees may affect short - term bond funds, and wealth management companies are considering three alternative paths. The CSRC's proposed regulations on redemption fees may increase the cost of short - term redemptions, affecting the investment value of short - term bond funds. Wealth management companies are considering direct bond trading, bond allocation through dedicated accounts, and investing in bond ETFs and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds [8]. - Ant Fund released data on the profitability of its fund investors. With the rise of the A - share market, the overall returns of active equity funds have recovered, and 90% of fund net values have exceeded last year's high. As of September 19, 215 million fund investors on the Ant Fund platform have achieved cumulative profits [8]. - Tibet Dongcai Fund officially changed its name to Dongcai Fund. The company completed the industrial and commercial change registration on September 15 and will subsequently change the names of its public fund products [9]. - The Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) released the public fund sales ranking for the first half of 2025, and securities firms are on the "fast - track" of index investment. In the first half of 2025, the overall public fund sales and custody scale of various institutions increased, and securities firms performed well in the field of index fund sales. The top ten institutions in the equity fund custody scale remained the same as at the end of 2024, while there were some changes in the non - monetary market fund and stock index fund custody scales [9]. 1.2 Product Highlights - The subscribers of the second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs were announced, mostly institutional investors. The second batch of 14 science and technology innovation bond ETFs will be listed on September 24, and most of the funds are held by institutional investors, with the proportion of institutional holdings in some funds exceeding 90% [10]. - The scale of newly issued funds in a single week reached a new high in nearly three years, with science and technology innovation bond ETFs becoming the absolute main force. From September 15 to 21, 56 new funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 76.715 billion yuan. Bond funds were particularly prominent, with 21 new bond funds established and a total issuance scale of 48.621 billion yuan, accounting for 63% of the total [12]. - Multiple bond funds announced adjustments to net value precision. Since July, more than 20 bond funds have announced adjustments to net value precision, mainly to avoid the adverse impact of large - scale redemptions on the interests of fund holders [14]. 1.3 Overseas Market - The acceleration of the "going - global" strategy of public funds is expected to bring a second growth curve. Recently, Huatai - Peregrine Asset Management (International) Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Huatai - Peregrine Fund in Hong Kong, obtained relevant licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Many public funds have established overseas subsidiaries in recent years, which is expected to enhance the influence of China's capital market and introduce more funds [14]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 4.00% - 4.25%, restarting the interest - rate cut process suspended since December last year [15]. 2. Market Review - Last week (from September 15 to 19, 2025), most of the A - share market's major broad - based indices showed a downward trend, while most overseas indices showed an upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 1.30%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4501.92, down 0.44%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7170.35, up 0.32%; the CSI 800 Index closed at 4951.69, down 0.24%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7438.19, up 0.21%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3091.00, up 2.34%. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.09%, the China Internet 30 Index rose 3.34%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.21% [3]. - The power equipment and new energy, and coal industries led the gains last week. The top five industries in the CSI primary industry index in terms of gains and losses were power equipment and new energy (3.61%), coal (3.59%), consumer services (3.52%), automobiles (3.43%), and electronics (2.75%). The bottom five industries were comprehensive (-4.09%), banking (-4.09%), non - ferrous metals (-3.93%), non - bank finance (-3.80%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-2.77%) [19]. 3. Fund Market Review 3.1 Active Equity Fund Performance - In the short - term performance of active equity funds, manufacturing and technology theme funds performed outstandingly. In the past week, the average interval returns of manufacturing and technology theme funds were 2.67% and 2.26% respectively; in the past three months, they were 30.99% and 44.66% respectively; in the past year, the technology and pharmaceutical theme funds performed prominently, with average interval returns of 96.18% and 59.78% respectively [20]. - Half of the active equity funds achieved positive returns last week, and the median interval return of active equity funds was 0.35%. Among different sectors, manufacturing and technology theme funds had the most prominent performance, with median interval returns of 2.56% and 1.95% respectively [23]. 3.2 Top - Performing Fund Performance Statistics - The top - performing active equity fund last week was Jinxin Steady Strategy A (007872.OF), a technology - themed fund, with an interval return of 15.24% [25]. - The report also listed the top five industry - themed funds in terms of interval returns last week, including their basic information and performance [26]. 4. ETF Fund Statistics 4.1 ETF Fund Performance - In terms of the average interval return last week, the top three ETF categories were technology (2.34%), manufacturing (1.78%), and international broad - based (0.84%) theme ETFs. In the past month, the top three were technology (15.57%), manufacturing (12.69%), and A - share broad - based (10.30%) theme ETFs [27]. 4.2 ETF Fund Capital Flow Statistics - In terms of capital inflows last week, the top categories were financial real estate (134.94 billion yuan), technology (87.83 billion yuan), and manufacturing (66.85 billion yuan) theme ETFs. The top categories in terms of capital outflows were A - share broad - based (148.82 billion yuan), bond (40.96 billion yuan), and commodity futures (16.30 billion yuan) theme ETFs [3]. - There were 448 ETFs with net capital inflows and 592 ETFs with net capital outflows last week. The top three ETFs in terms of capital inflows were Cathay CSI All - Share Securities Company ETF, Fullgoal CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, and E Fund China Securities Robot Industry ETF. The top three in terms of capital outflows were Huaxia SSE STAR Market 50 ETF, Bosera CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF, and Huatai - Peregrine SSE 300 ETF [34]. 4.3 ETF Fund Premium and Discount Statistics - As of September 19, 2025, the top three ETFs in terms of premium rate were Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF (2.87%), Bank of Communications 180 Governance ETF (1.87%), and Cathay CSI Consumer Electronics Theme ETF (1.06%). The top three in terms of discount rate were Huatai - Peregrine CSI A100 ETF (0.58%), Huaxia ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (0.51%), and ICBC Daiwa Nikkei 225 ETF (0.49%) [36]. 5. Fund Market Dynamics 5.1 Fund Manager Changes - Last week, 47 public funds had new fund managers, involving 39 fund managers from 24 fund management companies. The fund management companies with the largest number of public funds with new fund managers were BOC Fund, Morgan Fund, CCB Fund, E Fund, and Invesco Great Wall Fund [38]. - Last week, 46 public funds had fund manager departures, involving 29 fund managers from 23 fund management companies. The fund management companies with the largest number of public funds with departing fund managers were Zheshang Fund, BOC Fund, and Morgan Fund [41]. 5.2 Newly Established Funds Last Week - A total of 63 public funds were newly established last week, with a combined issuance share of 74.828 billion. The fund type with the largest number of new funds was passive index funds, with 16 newly established and a combined issuance share of 9.095 billion. The fund type with the largest combined issuance share was passive index bond funds, with 15 newly established and a combined issuance share of 44.943 billion [44]. - The fund management company with the largest combined issuance share was Tianhong Fund, with newly established public funds including Tianhong CSI A500 Index Enhanced A, Tianhong China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index A, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong, with a combined issuance share of 6.408 billion [44].

1. 商务部等九部门发布扩大服务消费19条举措。 商务部等九部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方 面19条举措，其中8项与"高品质服务供给"有关。文件提出，开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动；支持优质消费资源与知 名IP跨界合作；扩大电信、医疗、教育等领域开放试点；有序扩大单方面免签国家范围；优化学生假期安排，完善配套政 策等。文件还首次提出开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设。 2. 中国8月70城房价出炉，一线城市新房价格环比降幅收窄。 中国8月70城房价数据显示，一线城市新房价格环比下降0.1%，二线城市 新房环比下降0.3%，降幅均较上月收窄0.1个百分点。二手房方面，一线城市二手房价格环比降幅持平于1%，二线城市降幅扩大0.1个 百分点至0.6%，当月仅有长春1城房价环比上涨。这表明房地产市场仍处于调整阶段，但部分指标出现边际改善迹象。 3. 地方国资并购基金"潮涌"，加速赋能产业升级。 在政策暖风的吹拂下，地方国资并购基金设立呈现"潮涌"之势。今年以来，已有上 海、深圳、福建、浙江等地纷纷宣布拟设或已设国资并购基金。地方国资并购基金的兴起，契合国家战略导向。随着"并购六条"等政 策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a draft for public consultation regarding the management of sales expenses for publicly offered securities investment funds, marking a significant reform aimed at adjusting various fees and enhancing long-term investment incentives [1][3]. Key Data Overview - The draft proposes a reduction in subscription and application fees for different fund types: approximately 33% and 47% for equity funds, 58% and 67% for mixed funds, and 50% and 63% for bond funds [2]. - The redemption fee threshold has been raised, with a minimum of 0.5% for holdings under six months and a potential 1.5% penalty for holdings under seven days [2]. - As of the end of Q2, there are 8,370 active equity funds with a total scale of nearly 2.15 trillion yuan, while the total scale of public funds is approximately 7.65 trillion yuan [2]. Regulatory Signals - The regulation aims to encourage long-term investment and suppress short-term speculation by increasing the cost of short-term redemptions [3]. - It also seeks to promote market-oriented fee structures and improve service quality, pushing sales channels to focus more on product and service enhancement [3]. Impact Analysis - For equity funds, the reduction in fees and increased redemption thresholds are favorable for long-term holders, particularly passive index funds and ETFs [4]. - Bond funds may face significant challenges as many previously relied on short-term trading strategies, leading to potential capital withdrawals and volatility in fund sizes [4]. - Sales channels dependent on trailing commissions will experience income pressure, prompting a shift towards investment advisory services and scalable management [4]. Practical Recommendations - Individual investors should reassess their holding periods and liquidity needs, favoring money market funds or short-term bond ETFs for short-term liquidity, while opting for passive index or low-fee active funds for long-term investments [6]. - Institutional investors are advised to re-evaluate fund outsourcing and liquidity management strategies, considering direct bond allocations and extending durations to mitigate redemption cost impacts [7]. - Fund managers and distribution agencies should reduce reliance on trailing commissions, enhance research and advisory capabilities, and diversify product offerings to improve customer experience [7].

征求意见稿针对不同持有期限设置了基金赎回费率下限：对持续持有期少于七日的投资者，收取不低于 赎回金额1.5%的赎回费；对持续持有期满七日、少于三十日的投资者，收取不低于赎回金额1%的赎回 费；对持续持有期满三十日、少于六个月的投资者，收取不低于赎回金额0.5%的赎回费。 业内人士认为，征求意见稿意在引导投资者进行长期投资，但对于部分将债券基金作为流动性管理工具 或交易工具的投资者而言，赎回成本或增加，进而压缩投资者实际的持有收益。 换言之，以短债基金为代表的高流动性产品，其投资价值恐将受到影响。中信证券首席经济学家明明认 为，短债基金的底层资产以短期债券为主。在低利率环境下，票息收益本就有限。根据征求意见稿，基 金赎回费率或上调，这将增加投资者的短期持有成本，进而削弱该类产品在流动性管理和交易工具方面 的价值。 近日，证监会就《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，拟针对不 同持有期限设置基金赎回费率下限。业内人士认为，此举或提高短期持有基金的赎回成本，进而影响短 债基金等高流动性产品的投资价值。 作为短债基金的重要机构投资者，理财公司正积极寻求应对之策。中国证券报记者从业内获悉， ...

● 李静 李蕴奇 近日，证监会就《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，拟针对不 同持有期限设置基金赎回费率下限。业内人士认为，此举或提高短期持有基金的赎回成本，进而影响短 债基金等高流动性产品的投资价值。 作为短债基金的重要机构投资者，理财公司正积极寻求应对之策。中国证券报记者从业内获悉，理财公 司主要考虑三条替代路径：直接进行债券交易、通过专户配置债券、投资债券ETF及同业存单指数基 金。 短债基金持有成本或提升 征求意见稿针对不同持有期限设置了基金赎回费率下限：对持续持有期少于七日的投资者，收取不低于 赎回金额1.5%的赎回费；对持续持有期满七日、少于三十日的投资者，收取不低于赎回金额1%的赎回 费；对持续持有期满三十日、少于六个月的投资者，收取不低于赎回金额0.5%的赎回费。 业内人士认为，征求意见稿意在引导投资者进行长期投资，但对于部分将债券基金作为流动性管理工具 或交易工具的投资者而言，赎回成本或增加，进而压缩投资者实际的持有收益。 换言之，以短债基金为代表的高流动性产品，其投资价值恐将受到影响。中信证券首席经济学家明明认 为，短债基金的底层资产以短期债券为主。在低利率 ...

Group 1 - The public fund distribution landscape is undergoing changes, with 57 brokerage firms making it to the top 100 list, indicating a competitive environment in fund sales [1][2] - The total sales scale of non-money market funds by the top 100 institutions has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, reflecting a nearly 7% increase compared to the previous period [2] - The sales scale of equity funds reached 5.14 trillion yuan, with a 6% increase, while the sales scale of stock index funds grew by 15% to 1.95 trillion yuan [2][3] Group 2 - Among the top 10 institutions for equity fund sales, Ant Group leads with a scale of 822.9 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Bank and Tiantian Fund, with only two brokerages, CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, making the list [2] - In the top 10 for non-money market fund sales, no brokerages were present, contrasting with the stock index fund sales where brokerages occupied 7 out of 10 positions [2][3] Group 3 - The significant increase in stock index funds is evident, with the total net asset value of 3,209 stock funds reaching 5 trillion yuan, up from 4.07 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year [3][4] - 23 brokerages have a stock index fund sales scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, with six brokerages surpassing 50 billion yuan, led by CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4] Group 4 - The ongoing fee reduction in public funds is expected to reach 30 billion yuan, which may reshape the fund distribution landscape [5][6] - The new regulations aim to lower subscription fees and optimize redemption arrangements, potentially impacting the revenue sources for sales institutions [5][6] - The overall impact of the fee reform on brokerages is considered limited, as their income from fund distribution constitutes a small percentage of total revenue [6]

（原标题：重磅来了，见证历史） 【导读】公募基金销售费率改革方案正式推出：重塑公募基金销售生态，推动行业高质量发展 重塑公募基金销售生态 推动行业高质量发展 中国基金报记者 李树超 方丽 曹雯璟 9月5日，证监会修订发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《规 定》），公募基金销售费率改革方案正式推出。 业内人士表示，此次公募基金销售费率改革将直接降低投资者成本，促进基金行业能力提升，重塑公募 基金销售生态，推动行业高质量发展，构建健康可持续的财富管理生态。 调降认申购费率、销售服务费率 推动行业商业模式重构与生态优化 《规定》明确，降低认申购费率，将股票型基金、混合型基金、债券型基金的认申购费率上限分别调降 至0.8%、0.5%、0.3%；规范销售服务费，将股票型基金和混合型基金、指数型基金和债券型基金、货 币市场基金的销售服务费率上限分别调降至0.4%/年、0.2%/年、0.15%/年。 业内人士表示，此次改革是一次深刻的行业生态重塑，短期阵痛不可避免，依赖传统收费模式和机构业 务的销售机构，以及缺乏核心竞争力的中小基金公司会面临较大转型压力。但长期有助于推动行业商业 模式的重 ...

Group 1 - Yi Huiman, Vice Chairman of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting to support the decision of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission regarding Yi Huiman [2] Group 2 - The CSRC announced a revision to the regulations on public offering securities investment fund sales fees, marking a significant step in the fee rate reform process [3] - The new regulations aim to lower costs for investors by reducing subscription and sales service fees, optimizing redemption arrangements, and encouraging long-term holding of funds [3] - It is expected that the reforms will result in annual savings of over 50 billion yuan for investors [3] Group 3 - As of August 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 74.02 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 10 months [4] - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to 33,222 billion USD, an increase of 29.9 billion USD from the previous month [4] Group 4 - The STAR Market Index will undergo a quarterly adjustment, with new companies being added to the STAR 50 and STAR 100 indices [5] - The total market capitalization of the STAR 50 Index will be 3.1 trillion yuan, covering 38.9% of the market [5] Group 5 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rose to 16%, with a 71% chance of three rate cuts by the end of the year [7] Group 6 - The CSRC approved the IPO registration of Suzhou Fengbei Biotechnology Co., Ltd. for its initial public offering on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [11] - Three new stocks are set to be issued this week, including Shichang Co., Ltd. and You Sheng Co., Ltd. [12] Group 7 - A total of 47 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked this week, with a total market value of 95.634 billion yuan [14] - The companies with the highest unlock values include Times Electric (27.823 billion yuan) and Nanwang Energy (23.081 billion yuan) [14][15]