2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 主要指标进一步回落 要点 事件： 2025 年 12 月 15 日，国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月经济数据：1）11 月规模以 上工业增加值同比增长 4.8%，前值为增长 4.9%；2）1-11 月固定资产投资累计 同比下降 2.6%，前值为下降 1.7%；3）11 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 1.3%， 前值为增长 2.9%。 点评： 规模以上工业生产同比增速下降但环比增速上升。11 月规模以上工业增加值同 比增长 4.8%，涨幅较 10 月下降 0.1 个百分点。从环比看，2025 年 11 月份规 模以上工业增加值环比增速为+0.44%，较 10 月有所上升。从结构来看，三大门 类中，相对于上月，2025 年 11 月采矿业增加值同比增速上升，但制造业，电力、 热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比增速则下降。 1-11 月固定资产投资累计同比降幅扩大，但 11 月环比降幅收窄。2025 年 1-11 月固定资产投资累计同比增速为-2.6%，降幅扩大。从环比增速来观察，11 月固 定资产投资环比增速为-1.03%，环比降幅收窄。从结构上来说，11 月房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October 2025 indicates a slowdown in industrial production, a continued decline in fixed asset investment, and a slight decrease in retail sales growth, reflecting ongoing economic challenges in the country [3][4][5][6]. Industrial Production - In October 2025, the industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September. The month-on-month growth rate was +0.17%, marking the lowest level of the year [4]. - The month-on-month growth rate for October 2023 and 2024 was higher at +0.42% and +0.48%, respectively, indicating a significant decline in industrial production compared to previous years [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -1.7%, continuing a downward trend. The month-on-month growth rate for October was -1.62%, indicating an expanded decline [5]. - The real estate investment remains weak, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments have also weakened from their high levels at the beginning of the year [5]. Retail Sales - The year-on-year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in October was 2.9%, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month. However, the month-on-month growth rate turned positive at 0.16%, although it was weaker than seasonal expectations [6]. Bond Market Insights - Since August 2025, the yield on government bonds has shown a clear divergence, with short-term yields remaining stable while long-term yields experienced a rise followed by a decline. As of November 13, 2025, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 9 basis points and 13 basis points, respectively, from their highest points in 2025 [7]. - The convertible bond market has seen a year-to-date increase of +19.3% as of November 13, 2025, which is lower than the +25.2% increase in the broader equity market. However, the convertible bond market has started to gain momentum alongside the equity market's recovery [7].