2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 主要指标进一步回落 要点 事件： 2025 年 12 月 15 日，国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月经济数据：1）11 月规模以 上工业增加值同比增长 4.8%，前值为增长 4.9%；2）1-11 月固定资产投资累计 同比下降 2.6%，前值为下降 1.7%；3）11 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 1.3%， 前值为增长 2.9%。 点评： 规模以上工业生产同比增速下降但环比增速上升。11 月规模以上工业增加值同 比增长 4.8%，涨幅较 10 月下降 0.1 个百分点。从环比看，2025 年 11 月份规 模以上工业增加值环比增速为+0.44%，较 10 月有所上升。从结构来看，三大门 类中，相对于上月，2025 年 11 月采矿业增加值同比增速上升，但制造业，电力、 热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增加值同比增速则下降。 1-11 月固定资产投资累计同比降幅扩大，但 11 月环比降幅收窄。2025 年 1-11 月固定资产投资累计同比增速为-2.6%，降幅扩大。从环比增速来观察，11 月固 定资产投资环比增速为-1.03%，环比降幅收窄。从结构上来说，11 月房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for October 2025 indicates a slowdown in industrial production, a continued decline in fixed asset investment, and a slight decrease in retail sales growth, reflecting ongoing economic challenges in the country [3][4][5][6]. Industrial Production - In October 2025, the industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September. The month-on-month growth rate was +0.17%, marking the lowest level of the year [4]. - The month-on-month growth rate for October 2023 and 2024 was higher at +0.42% and +0.48%, respectively, indicating a significant decline in industrial production compared to previous years [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -1.7%, continuing a downward trend. The month-on-month growth rate for October was -1.62%, indicating an expanded decline [5]. - The real estate investment remains weak, while manufacturing and infrastructure investments have also weakened from their high levels at the beginning of the year [5]. Retail Sales - The year-on-year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in October was 2.9%, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month. However, the month-on-month growth rate turned positive at 0.16%, although it was weaker than seasonal expectations [6]. Bond Market Insights - Since August 2025, the yield on government bonds has shown a clear divergence, with short-term yields remaining stable while long-term yields experienced a rise followed by a decline. As of November 13, 2025, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 9 basis points and 13 basis points, respectively, from their highest points in 2025 [7]. - The convertible bond market has seen a year-to-date increase of +19.3% as of November 13, 2025, which is lower than the +25.2% increase in the broader equity market. However, the convertible bond market has started to gain momentum alongside the equity market's recovery [7].

Core Viewpoints - The challenges lie in the overspending of consumer demand and the impact of clearing accounts on investment, while the highlights are the recovery of service consumption and the alleviation of debt issues [2][66] Production - The reduction in working days and high inventory from previous periods have constrained production, leading to a significant decline in industrial value-added growth, which fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% in October [9][33] - The manufacturing sector experienced a notable decline in production growth, with a marginal drop of 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% in October [33][66] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth in October was slightly down to 2.9%, primarily due to a decline in goods retail, which fell by 0.5 percentage points [6][52] - The "old-for-new" consumption model saw significant declines in categories such as automobiles (-8.2 percentage points to -6.6%) and home appliances (-17.9 percentage points to -14.6%) [17][66] - Service consumption remained resilient, with restaurant income improving by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8% [17][66] Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a substantial decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6 percentage points to -10.7% in October [19][67] - The impact of land acquisition costs and corporate account clearing has significantly affected investment, with other expenses dropping by 18.8 percentage points to -14.3% [19][67] - Manufacturing and service sector investments have also seen considerable declines, indicating ongoing effects from corporate account clearing and anti-involution policies [19][67] Real Estate - Demand-side sales and housing prices remain weak, with new housing sales area and sales amount dropping significantly by 15.1 percentage points and 17.1 percentage points, respectively [24][67] - The supply side shows a continued decline in credit financing for real estate companies, with new starts and completions also experiencing significant drops [24][67] Summary - Short-term factors are disrupting the economy, but their impact is weakening at the margins; policies are actively countering these effects, and the economy is expected to maintain resilience in the fourth quarter [31][68] - Potential risks include overspending in consumer demand and the impact of account clearing on investment, alongside structural highlights such as the alleviation of debt effects on investment [31][68]

Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in economic momentum, with China's GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 declining to 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2's 5.2%. However, the cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters remains at 5.2%, indicating that the annual target of 5.0% is likely achievable [3][4][6] - The report notes that while fixed asset investment has been a major drag on growth, new economic drivers are beginning to show effects, particularly through policies aimed at boosting consumption and production [3][6] - Consumer spending has continued to decline, with retail sales growth for January to September 2025 at 4.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The report suggests that ongoing policy support is necessary to stimulate consumer demand [3][29] Economic Data Summary - In September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained steady at 6.2%, with significant differentiation between real estate-related and non-real estate-related industries [3][6][12] - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising slightly to 0.1% month-on-month, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.3%. Core CPI has increased for five consecutive months, reaching 1.0% [3][9] - Fixed asset investment has entered negative territory for the first time since 2021, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -0.5% in September 2025. Real estate investment has seen a significant decline of -13.9% [3][12][20] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the bond market remains under pressure, with short-term fluctuations driven by U.S.-China trade news. The lack of strong interest rate cuts makes it difficult for the bond market to return to a "fundamentals + liquidity" pricing model [3][19] - The report suggests that while liquidity remains loose, the long-term and ultra-long-term bonds are experiencing increased volatility, recommending a reduction in duration exposure [3][19]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy continues to slow down in August, with a mix of resilience in production and pressure on demand, highlighting the need for policy support to boost consumption and investment [1] Production Sector - Industrial added value growth has slowed year-on-year but remains at a relatively high level, with policy-related and energy supply industries maintaining vitality [1] - External demand is under pressure, leading to a negative growth rate in export delivery value [1] - There is a divergence within the service sector, with strong performance in technology and finance but weakness in business services [1] Consumption Sector - Retail sales growth has declined year-on-year, although summer economic activities and policy support have bolstered some upgrades and durable goods consumption [1] - Essential consumption and real estate-related consumption are under pressure, indicating insufficient internal recovery momentum [1] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment growth rates, both cumulative and monthly, are declining across various components, necessitating increased policy measures to stimulate investment [1] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain a slow but stable trajectory with structural optimization, although demand recovery will take time [1] - There is a need for policies to focus on boosting demand, enhancing consumption willingness, optimizing investment structure, and mitigating risks in key areas to ensure stable economic operation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of the economy driven by policy support and export growth, while also highlighting the weakening trends in real estate and manufacturing sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Stability - The investment sector shows strong performance, with equipment purchases contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth from January to April, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [5][11]. - Consumer demand for durable goods remains robust, with retail sales of home appliances and related categories contributing 27.4% to total retail sales in April, reflecting a growth rate of 10.6% for durable goods [5][11]. - The trade sector continues to perform well, with a trade surplus growth rate of 33.6% in April, supported by an 8.1% year-on-year increase in exports [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Changes - The real estate market shows signs of weakening, particularly in the "strong five cities" (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu), where the average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.2% in April, compared to a 0.46% increase in March [6][13]. - Manufacturing investment growth is slowing, particularly in the raw materials sector, which saw a significant decline in investment growth to 2.7% from January to April, down from previous levels [7][17]. Group 3: April Economic Data Overview - In April, industrial production growth was recorded at 6.1%, while service sector production index grew by 6.0%. Retail sales growth was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March [21][22]. - The real estate sector experienced a decline in sales area by 2.1% year-on-year in April, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 3.5% [21][30]. - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight deflation at -0.1%, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% [21][22]. Group 4: Employment and Investment Trends - The urban unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in April, indicating a slight improvement in the job market [23]. - Fixed asset investment growth was recorded at 3.6% in April, with manufacturing investment showing a cumulative growth of 8.8% from January to April [37].