点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 事件： 2025年11月14日，国家统计局公布2025年10月经济数据：1）10月规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，前值为 6.5%；2）1-10月固定资产投资累计同比下降1.7%，前值为下降0.5%；3）10月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，前值为3.0%。 点评： 工业生产环比增速创年内最低值 10月规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，涨幅较9月下降1.6个百分点。从环比看，2025年10月份规模以上工业 增加值环比增速为+0.17%，是年内最低值。2023年、2024年同期，10月规模以上工业增加值环比增速分别为 +0.42%和+0.48%，今年10月的环比增速低于这两年水平。 年内固定资产投资累计同比增速仍在回落 1-10月固定资产投资累计同比增速为-1.7%，延续回落态势。从环比增速来观察，10月固定资产投资环比增速 为-1.62%，环比降幅扩大。年内固定资产累计同比增速持续回落，10月延续了这一态势；从结构上来说，房地 产投资持续偏弱，制造业和基建投资则从年初的高位走弱。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者 ...

Core Viewpoints - The challenges lie in the overspending of consumer demand and the impact of clearing accounts on investment, while the highlights are the recovery of service consumption and the alleviation of debt issues [2][66] Production - The reduction in working days and high inventory from previous periods have constrained production, leading to a significant decline in industrial value-added growth, which fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.9% in October [9][33] - The manufacturing sector experienced a notable decline in production growth, with a marginal drop of 2.4 percentage points to 4.9% in October [33][66] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth in October was slightly down to 2.9%, primarily due to a decline in goods retail, which fell by 0.5 percentage points [6][52] - The "old-for-new" consumption model saw significant declines in categories such as automobiles (-8.2 percentage points to -6.6%) and home appliances (-17.9 percentage points to -14.6%) [17][66] - Service consumption remained resilient, with restaurant income improving by 2.9 percentage points to 3.8% [17][66] Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a substantial decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.6 percentage points to -10.7% in October [19][67] - The impact of land acquisition costs and corporate account clearing has significantly affected investment, with other expenses dropping by 18.8 percentage points to -14.3% [19][67] - Manufacturing and service sector investments have also seen considerable declines, indicating ongoing effects from corporate account clearing and anti-involution policies [19][67] Real Estate - Demand-side sales and housing prices remain weak, with new housing sales area and sales amount dropping significantly by 15.1 percentage points and 17.1 percentage points, respectively [24][67] - The supply side shows a continued decline in credit financing for real estate companies, with new starts and completions also experiencing significant drops [24][67] Summary - Short-term factors are disrupting the economy, but their impact is weakening at the margins; policies are actively countering these effects, and the economy is expected to maintain resilience in the fourth quarter [31][68] - Potential risks include overspending in consumer demand and the impact of account clearing on investment, alongside structural highlights such as the alleviation of debt effects on investment [31][68]

债 券 研 究 债 券 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 21 日 新旧动能切换，债市依然承压 ——9 月经济数据点评 ⚫ 风险提示：货币政策和财政政策超预期，海外环境变化超预期 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - 图 1：2025Q3 我国 GDP 当季同比增速相比二季度 回落 0.4pcts 至 4.8%，GDP 平减指数同比连续 10 个季度为负 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 图 3：2025 年 9 月工业增加值累计同比增速 6.2%持 平上月 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研究 资料来源：iFind，申万宏源研 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy continues to slow down in August, with a mix of resilience in production and pressure on demand, highlighting the need for policy support to boost consumption and investment [1] Production Sector - Industrial added value growth has slowed year-on-year but remains at a relatively high level, with policy-related and energy supply industries maintaining vitality [1] - External demand is under pressure, leading to a negative growth rate in export delivery value [1] - There is a divergence within the service sector, with strong performance in technology and finance but weakness in business services [1] Consumption Sector - Retail sales growth has declined year-on-year, although summer economic activities and policy support have bolstered some upgrades and durable goods consumption [1] - Essential consumption and real estate-related consumption are under pressure, indicating insufficient internal recovery momentum [1] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment growth rates, both cumulative and monthly, are declining across various components, necessitating increased policy measures to stimulate investment [1] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain a slow but stable trajectory with structural optimization, although demand recovery will take time [1] - There is a need for policies to focus on boosting demand, enhancing consumption willingness, optimizing investment structure, and mitigating risks in key areas to ensure stable economic operation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of the economy driven by policy support and export growth, while also highlighting the weakening trends in real estate and manufacturing sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Stability - The investment sector shows strong performance, with equipment purchases contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth from January to April, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [5][11]. - Consumer demand for durable goods remains robust, with retail sales of home appliances and related categories contributing 27.4% to total retail sales in April, reflecting a growth rate of 10.6% for durable goods [5][11]. - The trade sector continues to perform well, with a trade surplus growth rate of 33.6% in April, supported by an 8.1% year-on-year increase in exports [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Changes - The real estate market shows signs of weakening, particularly in the "strong five cities" (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu), where the average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.2% in April, compared to a 0.46% increase in March [6][13]. - Manufacturing investment growth is slowing, particularly in the raw materials sector, which saw a significant decline in investment growth to 2.7% from January to April, down from previous levels [7][17]. Group 3: April Economic Data Overview - In April, industrial production growth was recorded at 6.1%, while service sector production index grew by 6.0%. Retail sales growth was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March [21][22]. - The real estate sector experienced a decline in sales area by 2.1% year-on-year in April, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 3.5% [21][30]. - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight deflation at -0.1%, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% [21][22]. Group 4: Employment and Investment Trends - The urban unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in April, indicating a slight improvement in the job market [23]. - Fixed asset investment growth was recorded at 3.6% in April, with manufacturing investment showing a cumulative growth of 8.8% from January to April [37].