锂电材料：告别过剩思想，拥抱短缺周期 20251224 摘要 预计 2026 年电芯需求将达 2,600GWh，2027 年或达 3,000GWh， 储能高增长是关键驱动力。产业链各环节供需紧张程度将递进，需关注 六氟磷酸锂、正极材料和隔膜等环节的短期供需错配风险。 材料企业资本开支不足，长期或面临短缺风险。为刺激扩产，价格上调 或不可避免。提前备库行为推动碳酸锂和六氟磷酸锂价格短期上涨，需 警惕价格波动风险。 2026 年需求增量预计在 550-600GWh，储能占比超 50%，海外动力 电池和国内商用车市场亦有贡献。新能源车增速即使放缓，装机端仍有 增长空间，整体需求确定性强。 中游材料企业面临扩产压力，需快速回收资本开支。当前盈利变化呈非 线性，企业需抓住机会扩产，应对未来下行压力，并基于终端需求和客 户配套情况谨慎扩产。 材料成本上涨对储能项目 IRR 影响尚可接受，民营资本参与有助于成本 传导。碳酸锂价格上涨导致采购与终端需求脱节，相关标的及铁锂环节 值得关注。 Q&A 当前锂电池材料市场的供需格局如何，以及未来几年内的需求预期是什么？ 从动力电池角度来看，目前市场处于淡季不淡的状态。即使按照较为悲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yongzhen Co., Ltd. (603381.SH), is strategically expanding its business from a single focus on photovoltaic frame manufacturing to a dual focus on "photovoltaics + energy storage," aiming to capture new growth opportunities in the renewable energy industry. Group 1: Energy Storage Business Development - In June, the company announced an investment of 1.31 billion yuan to build a 1.8GWh energy storage power station in Baotou, marking its entry into the energy storage sector [1] - As of September 28, the Baotou energy storage project has completed the necessary regulatory filings and is progressing according to plan, with construction and equipment procurement phases upcoming [2] - The project benefits from grid-side attributes, allowing it to participate in peak shaving services and enjoy a 10-year subsidy for grid-connected independent energy storage projects completed by the end of 2025, enhancing its revenue stability [2][3] Group 2: Industry Context and Growth Potential - The timing of the company's energy storage expansion aligns with a global growth cycle in the energy storage industry, with a target of 180 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027 set by the National Development and Reform Commission [3] - The projected annual addition of over 35.4GW of new energy storage capacity from 2025 to 2027 indicates a sustained high compound growth rate for the industry, positioning the company to benefit from these trends [3] Group 3: Photovoltaic Frame Manufacturing - The photovoltaic frame manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery due to a trend of "anti-involution," which is leading to improved industry conditions and market share concentration among leading companies [4] - The company is capitalizing on the exit of weaker competitors in the frame manufacturing space, allowing it to capture additional market share and strengthen its position as an industry leader [4][5] Group 4: International Expansion and Profitability - The company's factory in Vietnam is demonstrating significant profitability advantages, with higher processing fees and profit margins compared to domestic operations, contributing to overall revenue growth [6][8] - The Vietnam facility is strategically positioned to meet the increasing demand for photovoltaic frames in Southeast Asia, providing a competitive edge in the international market [7][8] Group 5: Strategic Synergies and Future Outlook - The acquisition of Zhejiang Jienow Automotive Lightweight Technology Co., Ltd. enhances the company's capabilities in liquid cooling technology, which will support the energy storage project in Baotou [8] - The dual focus on energy storage and photovoltaic manufacturing, along with the advantages of the Vietnam factory, positions the company for high-quality growth and long-term value creation for shareholders [9]