6月末以来，沪锡价格处于26万元/吨至27万元/吨之间波动，走势非常僵持，成交量也持续收缩，市场 关注度降低，沪锡期权波动率VIX指数也降至近一年低点水平。那么，是什么因素导致沪锡振幅明显收 窄？后市有哪些关注焦点？ 锡下游订单水平维持下滑态势，且三季度为下游消费水平淡季，锡相关消费较往年皆有下滑，家电排产 订单不足。锡现货市场维持供需双弱态势，贸易商随行就市，以升水较小的品牌出货较好，冶炼厂多持 挺价情绪，下游逢低入市接货。半导体方面，据美国半导体行业协会（SIA）数据显示，2025年6月， 数据来源：海关总署 数据来源：海关总署 全球销售额达599亿美元，同比增长19.6%，环比增长1.5%。展望全年，世界半导体贸易组织（WSTS） 预测2025年全球半导体市场规模将达到7009亿美元，同比增长11.2%。WSTS认为，今年的半导体市场 规模攀升将由逻辑和存储器的增长引领；这两大市场均受到AI、云基础设施、先进消费电子产品等领 域持续需求的推动。WSTS同时指出，尽管整体市场正在扩张，但预计部分产品细分市场将继续萎缩。 例如，分立半导体、光电子器件和微型集成电路预计将出现较低个位数的下滑。这些下滑主要归因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor market is expected to recover by 2025, driven by demand in AI, cloud infrastructure, and advanced consumer electronics, despite Europe lagging behind the US and Asia in the AI boom [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In April 2023, global semiconductor sales reached $57 billion, a month-over-month increase of 2.5% and a year-over-year increase of 22.7% compared to April 2024's $46.4 billion [1]. - By April 2025, the Americas are projected to see a year-over-year increase of 44.4%, while Asia Pacific and China are expected to grow by 23.1% and 14.4%, respectively [1]. - The total semiconductor market size for 2023 is estimated at $700.8 billion, reflecting an 11.2% year-over-year growth, which is lower than the 19.7% growth anticipated for 2024 [2]. Group 2: Regional Insights - The Americas and Asia Pacific are expected to lead growth in 2025 with projected increases of 18.0% and 9.8%, respectively, while Europe is forecasted to grow by only 6.1% due to a focus on industrial and automotive markets [3]. - Japan's semiconductor market is expected to see a modest year-over-year increase of 5.8% in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Product Segmentation - The growth in the semiconductor market is primarily driven by logic and memory segments, which are expected to achieve strong double-digit growth [4]. - Discrete semiconductors, optoelectronics, and micro ICs are projected to experience declines, attributed to ongoing trade tensions and negative economic developments affecting supply chains [5]. - The forecast for the semiconductor market in 2026 anticipates an 8.5% year-over-year growth, with memory again leading the growth, while the overall market may not exceed $1 trillion until 2032 [6].