Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai Tin (SHFE Tin) showed an overall oscillatory trend. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation in futures prices and basis during the period [11]. - Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August totaled 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, remaining stable. The resumption of mining production in Myanmar has repeatedly affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in October, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the interference of the ore end [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. generally maintains an upward trend. Overseas uncertainties are still high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The ore end situation is unstable. In terms of operation, those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions, and conduct light - position long - biased trading, with the weekly support level around 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE Tin oscillated last week. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little change in futures prices and basis [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year, expected to recover in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August was 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of mining in Myanmar affected price points [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will be adjusted. The tariff adjustment on US - originated goods and the decline in China's October PMI are also factors [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are declining, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to supply shortages, domestic economic resilience, and overseas uncertainties, heavy - position holders can reduce positions, conduct light - position long - biased trading with a support level of 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mining disturbances, Indonesian export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors Analysis**: Production has a neutral impact as the ore supply is expected to ease; downstream demand is bullish as the industry demand outlook is positive; inventory is bullish due to inventory depletion; imports and exports are neutral with stable net exports; market sentiment is bearish; cost and profit are neutral with low processing fees; and the macro - environment is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no specific analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,865 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week. As of November 5, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,975 tons, also increasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 31, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 7,698 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of November 6, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan's refined ore was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton, continuing to be weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin production was 9,770 tons, significantly decreasing month - on - month due to major factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal supply in October. Domestic tin ore production in August was 6,854.21 tons, increasing slightly month - on - month [40]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [47]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer production was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [51]. - In October 2025, China's PVC production was 2.1281 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [54]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In September 2025, China's refrigerator production was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [58]. - In September 2025, China's washing - machine production was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, China's color TV production was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [62]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy production was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In September 2025, China's integrated circuit production was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [66]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [71]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing China's and overseas production, global supply, China's and overseas demand, and global supply - demand balance. For example, in 2025E, China's production is expected to be 184,500 tons, overseas production 185,000 tons, global supply 369,500 tons, China's demand 193,000 tons, overseas demand 186,000 tons, and the global supply - demand balance is - 9,500 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, with slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. Although the mining permits have been approved, the export volume of tin ore is still far below the normal level, and the supply gap cannot be effectively filled. The long - term demand expectations from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support the tin price. It is expected that the tin price will remain stable or have a slight rebound [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved, but the resumption of production is slow. It is expected that the supply of tin ore will significantly recover in the fourth quarter. In September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 8714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. The import volume from countries like Congo (Kinshasa) decreased due to shipping, but it is at a normal level. The import volume from Myanmar is increasing, and short - term supply shows improvement [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State is slow and difficult to increase production before November. The raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises persists, and the tin concentrate processing fee (TC) in Yunnan remains low. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin is insufficient due to a significant reduction in scrap, and the refined tin output remains low. The raw material inventory of domestic smelters is generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance in September, with capacity utilization likely to remain low [12]. - Demand side: Traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate show weak consumption, but emerging fields like new energy vehicles and AI servers provide long - term demand support for the tin price. In the peak season of October, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. As of the end of October, the total social inventory of major tin ingots in China was 7698 tons, a decrease of 654 tons from September [12]. - Conclusion: In October, the tin price fluctuated mainly following the non - ferrous metal sector. The supply tension supports the tin price, and it is expected to remain stable or have a slight rebound [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19] 3.3 Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fee remains low [26]. 3.4 Supply Side - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export are presented [30][32][35] 3.5 Demand Side - Semiconductor sales: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [44]. - Consumer electronics: The production of domestic computers and smartphones is presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [46]. - Household appliances: The production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs is presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [48][50]. - Photovoltaic: The production of photovoltaic cells and cumulative photovoltaic installation in China are presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [52]. - Other fields: Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. PVC production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [55]. - Downstream enterprises: The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises and domestic apparent tin consumption are presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as China's social inventory and LME inventory are presented [61]

Core Insights - Tin prices in China have seen a significant increase, with the average price for 1 tin reported at 278,100 CNY per ton, up by 7,000 CNY from the previous day [1][2] - The futures market for tin also reflects this upward trend, with the main contract closing at 275,070 CNY per ton, marking a 0.94% increase [2] Price Overview - The current market prices for various specifications of tin in China are as follows: - Sn99.90 from Yunnan Tin Company at 278,000 CNY per ton in Shanghai [2] - Sn99.90 from Yunnan Tin Company at 279,000 CNY per ton in Shanghai [2] - 1 tin ingot at 277,250 CNY per ton in Shanghai [2] - 1 tin ingot at 279,000 CNY per ton in Shanghai [2] - 1 tin ingot at 277,200 CNY per ton in Guangdong [2] Market Dynamics - Indonesia's President has ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka-Belitung province and is taking measures to block smuggling routes [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a tin registered warehouse stock of 2,300 tons, with an increase of 80 tons in total inventory [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to a report from Wenguang Futures, the short-term supply and demand for tin is in a tight balance, with the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State still uncertain, while seasonal demand is expected to recover [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report highlights the tightening supply expectations for nickel due to the Indonesian government's suspension of 39 nickel mining companies, which may lead to increased market prices [24][26] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further as the Democratic Republic of Congo extends its export ban and shifts to a quota system starting October 16, which is likely to support cobalt prices [31][30] - The report indicates a long-term tight supply situation for antimony, which is expected to support prices, especially as domestic prices remain lower than international levels [36][34] - Lithium market shows signs of supply tightness, with domestic prices slightly down but still supported by overall demand growth [16][8] - The rare earth sector is experiencing strong export demand, and stricter controls may support future prices [9][16] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness, particularly in the Yunnan region, with limited recovery in Indonesian exports [17][10] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to resilient demand in hard alloys and special steels, despite recent price declines [12][18] - The uranium market is facing a tightening supply outlook, which is likely to support prices in the medium to long term [13][18] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt - Indonesian government has suspended 39 nickel mining companies, impacting supply expectations [24] - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [31][30] Antimony - Long-term supply tightness is expected to support antimony prices, with domestic prices lagging behind international levels [36][34] Lithium - The lithium market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices slightly down but supported by demand growth [16][8] Rare Earths - Strong export demand and stricter controls are expected to support rare earth prices [9][16] Tin - Tin prices are supported by supply tightness, particularly in Yunnan, with limited recovery in Indonesian exports [17][10] Tungsten - Resilient demand in hard alloys and special steels is expected to support tungsten prices despite recent declines [12][18] Uranium - The uranium market is facing a tightening supply outlook, likely supporting prices in the medium to long term [13][18]

Summary of the Conference Call on Tin Sector Industry Overview - The tin market has experienced fluctuations in prices, with a peak of 300,000 CNY on April 2, 2025, driven by delays in the resumption of production in Myanmar and the suspension of operations at the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] - Tin resources are scarce, with a global reserve-to-production ratio of only 14 years, the lowest among major metals, and a declining trend [2][7] - China holds 23% of global tin reserves, with major production coming from China, Myanmar, and Indonesia [2][8] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Tin prices rose until April 2, 2025, due to supply disruptions, but faced a decline after the announcement of U.S. tariffs. Prices have recently shown signs of recovery [2][5][6] - **Cost Projections**: By 2027, the global 90th percentile production cost is expected to rise to $33,800 per ton, a 32% increase from $25,600 per ton in 2022, providing strong support for tin prices [2][7] - **Supply Dynamics**: The processing fees for tin concentrate have reached a four-year low, indicating supply tightness. Domestic and international inventories have started to decrease, particularly due to low overseas supply [2][9] - **Demand Drivers**: China is the largest consumer of tin, accounting for 48% of global consumption. Key demand sectors include solder (50%), semiconductors (40%), and photovoltaics (11%). The semiconductor sector is expected to drive demand growth, especially during the traditional consumption peak in September [2][10] Additional Insights - **Emerging Applications**: New technologies in AI and robotics are expected to increase tin demand through applications in AI computing chips, conductive coatings, and 3D printing materials [5][10] - **Company Performance**: Leading companies like Tin Industry Co. have exceeded performance expectations in the first half of 2025, with future growth anticipated from tailings projects and expansions in production capacity [5][13] - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment remains optimistic regarding tin prices due to tight supply conditions and macroeconomic factors such as potential U.S. interest rate cuts [4][15][16] Conclusion - The tin sector is poised for a positive outlook, supported by fundamental supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions that favor price increases in the near term [4][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut in September and the time needed for the full resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, along with weak downstream demand in sectors like home appliances and solders, may cause Shanghai tin prices to weaken first and then strengthen. Investors are advised to buy on price dips, with attention on support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to weak domestic demand in sectors such as home appliances and solder materials. Given the expected Fed rate cut in September, partial production suspension for maintenance of domestic refined tin capacity, and the decline in domestic refined tin social inventory, investors are recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position arbitrage opportunities by going long on the Shanghai tin basis at low prices [6]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, along with the Shanghai - London tin price ratio slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years, are due to the expected Fed rate cut in September and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is suggested to temporarily watch the arbitrage opportunities of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side - **Tin Ore**: Namibia's Uis mine's second concentrator started commissioning in late August with a maximum monthly ore - processing capacity of 40,000 tons. In Myanmar's Wa State, the first batch of 40 - 50 mines will resume production after paying fees, with an initial increment of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [2][20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in September may decrease month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin production and an increase in inventory in September. Indonesia's export volume in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports and a decrease in exports [2][27][31]. Demand - side - **Tin Solder**: China's tin solder capacity utilization rate in September may increase month - on - month, while inventory may decrease [35][37]. - **Photovoltaic Welding Tape**: China's photovoltaic welding tape imports in September may decrease month - on - month, and exports may increase [39][41]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in September may all decrease month - on - month [43][45]. - **Integrated Circuits and Smartphones**: China's integrated circuit and smartphone production in September may increase month - on - month [47][50]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: China's lead - acid battery capacity utilization rate has decreased compared to last week [53][56]. Inventory - The inventory of refined tin in the SHFE has increased compared to last week; China's tin ingot social inventory has decreased; the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased; the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory has increased [12]. Price and Spread - China's tin concentrate price has increased compared to last week, and tin concentrate imports are still profitable. The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has decreased, indicating a tight supply expectation [16]. - The basis of Shanghai tin is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread of (3 - 15) contract is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

Group 1 - LME prices continue to rise, closing at 34,510, an increase of 1.11% from the previous trading day, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The strong performance of tin prices is supported by low global tin inventory and tight supply, with macroeconomic sentiment improving [1][2] - Supply tightness from mining remains a crucial factor for supporting tin prices, with July imports of tin ore in China slightly decreasing compared to June, primarily due to a significant drop in imports from Myanmar [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports are limited, mainly due to profit margins affecting imports, with the current spot import window for refined tin remaining largely closed [2] - The global tin supply recovery is slow, with Indonesian refined tin exports facing challenges, while demand remains relatively stable [2] - Domestic inventory levels are high despite a slight decrease, and weak consumption is unlikely to provide support for prices in the short term [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The weekly closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin was 265,930 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.33% and an amplitude of 1.72% [7] - Macroscopically, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a new high in more than three years, intensifying inflationary pressures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [7] - Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the approval of mining licenses, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [7] - In the smelting sector, the increase in production in July was mainly due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area remains severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level [7] - On the demand side, due to the traditional off - season, most downstream processing enterprises only maintain rigid demand for production and procurement, and orders are mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, and most downstream enterprises make rigid - demand purchases at low prices, with some post - pricing orders [7] - Technically, with low positions and caution from both long and short sides, and support at the lower edge of the range, it is expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust [7] - The recommended strategy is to temporarily wait and see or go long lightly at low prices, focusing on the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton range [7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 265,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from August 15, a decline of 0.11%. As of August 21, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,475 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton from August 15, a rise of 0.12%. The spot premium remained stable at 400 yuan/ton [7][12] - As of August 22, 2025, the current ratio of tin to nickel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.23, an increase of 0.02 from August 15. As of August 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME tin ratio was 7.96, a decrease of 0.03 from August 14 [16] - As of August 22, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Tin was 48,043 lots, a decrease of 1,832 lots from August 15, a decline of 3.67%. The net position of the top 20 was - 3,051 lots, a decrease of 1,349 lots from August 18 [22][23] Group 3: Industrial Chain - Supply Side - In July 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 10,277.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.58%. From January to July this year, the imported tin ore concentrates totaled 72,406.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.15% [28] - In July 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,448 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%. From January to July, the cumulative output of refined tin was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.34% [29] - On August 22, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates was 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from August 15; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrates was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from August 15 [34] - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of 40% tin concentrates was 254,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from August 15; the average price of 60% tin concentrates was 258,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged from August 15 [34] - As of August 22, 2025, the import loss of tin was 6,131.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,314.3 yuan/ton from August 15 [39] - In July 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,166.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.34% and a year - on - year increase of 157.87%. From January to July, the cumulative import of refined tin was 15,110.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.88%. In July 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,672.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. From January to July, the cumulative export of refined tin was 13,463.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.99% [40] - As of August 21, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 1,740 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from August 14, a decline of 4.92%. As of August 22, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,491 tons, a decrease of 301 tons from the previous week, a decline of 3.86%. The tin futures inventory was 7,053 tons, a decrease of 373 tons from August 15, a decline of 5.02% [45] Group 4: Industrial Chain - Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,603.26, a decrease of 282.23 from August 14, a decline of 4.8%. From January to July 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 29,454,570.7 million pieces, an increase of 5,009,313.4 million pieces compared with the same period last year, an increase of 20.49% [48] - As of June 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from May 2025, a rise of 10%. As of July 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 206,020.05 tons, an increase of 73,104.23 tons from June, an increase of 55% [51]

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the end of June, the price of tin in Shanghai has fluctuated between 260,000 and 270,000 CNY per ton, with a significant reduction in trading volume and market attention [1] - The volatility index (VIX) for Shanghai tin options has dropped to its lowest level in nearly a year, indicating a lack of market movement [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - The recovery of tin mining in Myanmar is progressing slowly, with actual output expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter due to seasonal rains and other logistical challenges [1] - Tin ore imports in China remain low, with a total of approximately 62,100 tons imported in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.04% [2] - Imports from Africa have increased, compensating for some of the supply gaps from Myanmar, particularly after Alphamin Resources resumed production in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2] Group 3: Smelting and Production Challenges - Smelting enterprises are operating at low capacity due to tight raw material supplies, with the operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces at 59.23% as of August 15 [4] - The shortage of tin ore and rising costs have led some smelting companies to consider temporary shutdowns to manage production levels [4] - The recycling of tin scrap has been disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in the supply of secondary materials, which is further constraining refined tin production [4] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - Downstream demand for tin is currently weak, with a decline in orders, particularly in the home appliance sector, as the third quarter is typically a low season for consumption [5] - The semiconductor market is experiencing mixed signals, with overall growth but specific segments facing declines due to trade tensions and economic conditions [8][10] - The photovoltaic sector has seen a significant drop in new installations in June, impacting the demand for tin solder used in solar panels [9] Group 5: Price Outlook - The overall market is characterized by weak supply and demand fundamentals, with tin prices expected to continue fluctuating within a limited range [13] - The low inventory levels in the London Metal Exchange (LME) could lead to increased price volatility, necessitating caution against speculative trading [10][13] - In the medium to long term, as Myanmar's tin supply gradually recovers, the tight supply-demand balance may ease, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in tin prices [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, the tin price fluctuated. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter as mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has resumed operation. However, the waste - tin recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, limiting refined output growth. Demand remains weak during the domestic off - season, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power is strong. Inventory increased slightly in July. Overall, there is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly in August, with the domestic price ranging from 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and the LME price from 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost end**: Mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved, and tin ore supply is expected to recover significantly in Q4. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a 11.44% month - on - month and 7.08% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total imports were 62,130 tons, a 32.41% year - on - year decrease [12] - **Supply end**: Domestic tin ore imports have increased, relieving the raw material shortage in Yunnan and slightly increasing the operating rate. In Jiangxi, the waste - tin recycling system is under pressure, with secondary material circulation down over 30%, limiting refined output growth. In July 2025, refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a 15.42% month - on - month increase and 0.09% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative output was 87,200 tons, a 1.95% year - on - year decrease [12] - **Demand end**: Domestic off - season consumption is poor, with low downstream orders and cautious restocking. After the photovoltaic rush - installation ended, orders in East China decreased, and some producers' operating rates declined. In July, the combined production schedule of household appliances decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Orders in consumer electronics and automotive electronics are weak, while demand from tin - plated sheets and chemicals is stable [12] - **Conclusion**: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak. Due to the ongoing resumption in Myanmar, the tin price may fluctuate weakly in August, with the domestic price range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and the LME price range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [12][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented [19][20] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, and processing fees remain low [27] 3.4 Supply End - Domestic refined tin production and its year - on - year changes are presented through figures. The waste - tin recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the secondary material circulation has decreased by over 30%, affecting refined output [31][33] 3.5 Demand End - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales growth rate has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales maintain high growth [46] - **PC and smartphone**: In Q2 2025, global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year, the largest increase since 2022. Mobile phone consumption remains sluggish, with global smartphone shipments expected to increase by 0.6% in 2025 to 1.24 billion units [49] - **Consumer electronics**: The "trade - in" subsidy policy has stimulated some growth, but the demand recovery is limited [52] - **Automobile**: In H1 2025, new - energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year [55] - **Household appliances**: The production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs shows different trends, but overall, the demand is not strong [57][59] - **Photovoltaic**: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation growth rate close to 100% year - on - year, but the actual impact is less than expected [62] - **Other fields**: Tin consumption in the tin - plated sheet (tinplate) field is declining, while PVC production increased slightly in H1 [65] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance sheet shows data on refined tin production, exports, imports, social inventory, inventory changes, and apparent consumption from January 2023 to June 2025 [70]