1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai tin futures market may enter a period of consolidation in the short - term as the upward momentum has weakened after continuous price increases, but the spot - futures discount pattern provides some support [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract of Shanghai tin (SN.SHF) showed a volatile consolidation trend today. The opening price was 399,930 yuan/ton, the highest was 401,080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 387,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 391,320 yuan/ton, up 0.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest decreased, indicating that some funds started to take profits and leave the market [2] 3.2 Spot Market Basis Analysis - On February 12, 2026, the average price of domestic spot tin (Grade 1) was 394,110 yuan/ton, higher than the closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract, resulting in a futures discount of about 2,790 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - A wholly - owned subsidiary of Xingye Yinxing successfully issued a $200 million overseas sustainable development bond with a 3 - year term and a coupon rate of 7.40%. The funds will be used for project construction and working capital supplementation. This move helps the company expand overseas financing channels and has a positive demonstration effect on industry capital operation. Most of the A - share tin - related assets rose today, showing strong market confidence and indirectly supporting the Shanghai tin price [4][5] 3.4 Market Outlook - Technically, the upward momentum of the main Shanghai tin contract has weakened, and fundamentally, the spot - futures discount pattern supports the futures price. Considering the recent large price increase and the decrease in open interest, it may enter a period of volatile consolidation in the short - term [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

锡价持续走强的核心逻辑，根植于"供应刚性"与"需求爆发"的结构性矛盾。供应端，全球锡资源稀缺性 凸显，储采比远低于其他金属，而刚果（金）地缘冲突、缅甸复产迟缓、印尼政策收紧三大主产国扰动 叠加，严重制约了产量释放，再生锡亦难补缺口，供应紧平衡格局已成为长期现实。需求端，传统领域 需求稳健，而AI算力与半导体产业已成为爆炸性增长引擎，AI服务器与先进封装技术对高纯度锡需求 激增，叠加光伏、新能源汽车的绿色转型支撑，共同构筑了强劲而持续的需求面。在此背景下，产业链 利润分配显著分化：上游矿山凭借资源垄断享有极高定价权与利润；中游冶炼则受原料短缺与成本挤压 之苦；下游加工企业，尤其是中小企业，面临高价原料与经营压力的双重挑战，但大型企业的刚性采购 为市场提供了关键支撑。整体而言，锡正从传统工业金属向稀缺的"算力金属"转变，其价值重估进程正 在供需矛盾中不断深化。 龙头企业：业绩与市值齐飞，共享行业红利 行业龙头企业在本轮周期中充分受益，实现了业绩与市值的同步跃升。锡业股份作为全球精锡龙头， 2025年市值翻倍，归母净利润同比大增约36%，并连续第二年于春节前派发现金红利，与股东共享发展 成果。兴业银锡依托银锡双主业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin metal market is experiencing a significant price surge, continuing the upward trend from 2025, with prices reaching historical highs due to a combination of geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, and long-term demand expectations [1][4]. Price Trends - On January 26, the main contract for tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose over 10% to approximately 462,700 CNY per ton, closing at 425,300 CNY per ton, a 1.37% increase from the previous trading day and over 25% for the month [1]. - The LME three-month tin price hit a record high of about 55,400 USD (approximately 358,200 CNY) per ton on January 23, up 6.5% from the previous day [1]. Supply Constraints - The current geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has escalated, increasing safety risks in major production areas, compounded by slow recovery in Myanmar and policy uncertainties in Indonesia, creating a "triple constraint" on supply [4]. - Global tin inventories are at historical lows, with LME tin stocks at 7,195 tons, a 21.23% increase month-on-month, while domestic social inventories have accumulated to 9,700 tons, up 0.18% [4]. Demand Dynamics - There is a clear distinction between short-term demand pressure and long-term growth potential, with traditional seasonal demand being subdued before the Spring Festival, while long-term growth driven by AI computing, photovoltaic new energy, and electric vehicles is expected to significantly outpace traditional sectors [3][5]. Industry Challenges - The tin industry is currently facing intensified competition between upstream and downstream sectors, with upstream players holding significant power due to resource scarcity [6][7]. - Domestic smelting enterprises are struggling with high procurement costs for imported ore, leading to historically low processing fees and overall industry losses [12]. Resource Dependency - China, despite being the largest tin resource holder and producer, has seen its reliance on imported tin ore exceed 60%, with some years approaching 70%, indicating a severe constraint on raw material supply [7][9]. - The annual production of tin ore in China has declined from 120,000 tons in 2010 to approximately 95,000 tons in 2022, while consumption has increased from 154,000 tons to 195,000 tons, widening the supply gap [11]. Future Price Outlook - Short-term factors supporting high tin prices include a weak dollar environment, supply concerns due to geopolitical tensions, and positive market sentiment [15]. - Analysts predict that while demand growth expectations exist, the anticipated impact of AI on tin consumption may be overstated, with AI-related consumption accounting for only 1%-2% of total tin consumption [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply side constraints remain, the demand in emerging fields is optimistic in the long - term, but the demand side is restricted by high prices in the short - term, and the inventory has increased significantly. The tin price may show a high - level wide - range oscillating trend. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the domestic supply - demand situation [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the Burmese mines is slow, and it is expected that the import volume in January will remain stable. The short - term domestic tin ore supply shortage continues, and the domestic tin ore processing fees remain low. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 10,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2] Supply - In December 2025, the domestic refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.79%. The raw material shortage pattern remains unsolved, and the release space of refined tin supply is limited. In Yunnan, the smelter operating rate remains at a high level of about 87%, and production is basically normal. In Jiangxi, affected by the shortage of scrap tin raw materials, the refined tin production is still low, and the operating rate of some enterprises is insufficient. It is expected that the production in January will remain unchanged month - on - month. In December, China's refined tin imports were 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin in December, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur increasing losses. In December, Indonesia's tin ingot exports were 5,002.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.93%, 1.87% higher than the average level in the past four years. The 2026 quota is about 60,000 tons, slightly higher than that in 2025, but policy control is strict, and the actual export rhythm is affected by the approval process [3] Consumption - High prices suppress downstream demand. Except for rigid demand, the willingness for active inventory replenishment has dropped to zero. Since late January, some solder and electronic manufacturing enterprises have entered the holiday mode, and the downstream's ability to accept orders has declined significantly. Usually, there is inventory replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, but this year, affected by high prices, the inventory replenishment volume is significantly lower than in previous years [3][5] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of January 26, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 171 tons to 9,720 tons. As of January 23, the total social inventory of SMM ingots in three places was 10,678 tons, an increase of 542 tons from last week's inventory data. The average spot price of tin in the Yangtze River was 423,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9,100 yuan, a rise of 2.19%. The basis of the Yangtze River spot for the tin main contract fluctuated between premium and discount. Last Friday, the basis was a premium of 4,130 yuan, with large basis fluctuations [4] LME Spot and Inventory - As of January 26, the LME tin weekly inventory continued to increase by 1,260 tons to 7,195 tons, at a relatively high level in the past five years. The LME tin spot discount widened, and the discount was $245 last weekend [4]

再推【锡】：供应紧缩兑现，期待更高的高峰 20260122 摘要 缅甸锡矿复产受政府高额保证金和实物税限制，预计 2026 年供应量增 加 1.5 万吨，但将被印尼减产对冲，实际增量有限。 印尼自 2025 年 9 月起加强对非法矿的打击，10-12 月锡锭出口量同比 下降 7%。2025 年 12 月出口环比下滑 33%，同比增加 9%。 印尼配额审批制度变化及趋严，可能导致 2026 年第一季度供应真空期， 交易所交易量显著下降。 综合缅甸和印尼供应不确定性，预计 2026 年全球锡供应增长仅约 5,000 吨，增速约 2%，低于 3%以上的需求增速，供需缺口将支撑锡 价。 当前全球锡显性库存约 16,500 吨，虽高于历史低点，但考虑到过去两 年隐形库存消耗，总体处于历史中位水平，无需过度担忧库存压力。 预计 2026 年全球锡需求增速超 3%，供给增速约 2%，供需缺口将支撑 锡价上涨。铜价上涨预期也将推动锡价上涨。 基于供需分析，新金路、锡业股份、华锡有色及锌业股份等公司值得关 注，股价有 30%-40%上涨空间，部分个股或达 50%-100%涨幅。 Q&A 缅甸和印尼的锡矿供应情况如何，未来可能会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical issues, and strong industrial demand, leading to a structural supply-demand imbalance in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2603 experienced a significant increase, closing at 429,570 yuan/ton, up 19,310 yuan, or 4.71% [1]. - The trading volume for the main contract reached 378,618 lots, with an open interest of 56,254 lots, an increase of 7,129 lots from the previous day [1]. - The average price for 1 tin in the Changjiang market rose by 20,000 yuan, reaching 423,300 yuan/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current tin price increase is attributed to simultaneous structural tensions on both the supply and demand sides [2]. - Supply constraints are exacerbated by natural disasters and policy issues in major producing regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, and Indonesia, alongside a long-term bottleneck with only 16 years of static resource reserves left [2]. - Demand for tin is surging due to its critical role in AI and renewable energy sectors, leading to a significant increase in high-end demand [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Behavior - The tin market is currently characterized by a deep interplay of industry structure, market sentiment, and financial behavior, moving beyond simple price speculation [3]. - Leading companies in the industry, such as Yunxi Co. and Shengtun Mining, are positioned to benefit significantly from the high-price cycle due to their resource advantages and strategic market positioning [3]. - There is a notable divergence in the spot market, with high-end tin experiencing tight supply and limited negotiation space, while ordinary tin materials see weaker demand and trading activity [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests a continuation of high price volatility, supported by ongoing supply disruptions and pre-holiday stocking demands [4]. - However, there are accumulating risks in the market, including potential regulatory responses to rapid price increases and the possibility of reduced speculative activity if short-term favorable conditions change [4].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年开年以来，锡金属价格大幅上涨，伦敦和上海市场的锡价均一度飙升至历史最高位。 1月22日，锡金属价格在高位稍有回落。LME锡三月期货合约价格盘中最高触及51500美元/吨，截至北京时间19点，报51050美元/吨，月内上 涨26.1%；国内市场方面，截至1月22日收盘，沪锡主力合约报收409010元/吨，月内上涨25.32%。 随着锡价急速拉升，锡已然成为开年工业金属市场的领涨品种。这轮涨价潮始于去年一季度，受去年一季度刚果（金）Bisie锡矿的停产、缅 甸地震等突发消息扰动影响，市场对锡供应紧缺的担忧日益上升，锡价不断攀升。今年以来，锡供应端的扰动未止，叠加市场资金投资、半导 体产业需求增加等因素的影响，锡价一度刷新2022年创下的纪录。 但有观点认为，当前的锡价表现是"非理性的繁荣"，在很大程度上源于投机的泡沫。其实，早在去年12月，中国有色金属工业协会锡业分会就 曾发布倡议书指出，当前锡价的急速拉升，已完全背离产业基本面。此轮涨势"不合常理"，并警告各方"避免盲目跟风"。 虽然接下来锡价如何走向仍是未知数，但本轮上涨无疑已对产业链 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **View**: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - **Strategy**: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of the tin industry is neutral, with a price range of 365,000 - 395,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, tin prices soared to a record high of 443,380 yuan/ton driven by inventory depletion. The overall fundamentals were strong, with tight supply at the mine end and relatively insensitive terminal demand. However, this week, the fundamentals have loosened, with significant inventory accumulation. Considering the impact of Sino-US strategic stockpiling policies, tin prices may fluctuate widely next week [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was -$68/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 150 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums showed a rebound [9][10][15] - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from C structure to B structure [18][19] - **Inventory**: This week, domestic social inventory increased by 2,647 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,033 tons. LME inventory also increased, and the canceled warrant ratio rebounded to 3.54% [24][27][32] - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the precipitated funds for Shanghai tin were 4,681,950,000 yuan, and the fund flow in the past 10 days was in the inflow direction [36] - **Transaction and Position**: This week, Shanghai tin trading volume and open interest decreased. LME tin trading volume rebounded, and open interest increased. The Shanghai tin position - to - inventory ratio declined [38][44][49] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In October 2025, tin concentrate production was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In November 2025, imports were 15,099 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.41%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan rose to 8,000 yuan/ton. The tin ore import profit - and - loss level rebounded [53][54] - **Smelting**: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot production was 15,960 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.38%, a slight rebound from last week [59][61] - **Import**: In November 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,195 tons, exports were 1,048 tons, and the net export was 753 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 6,187 yuan/ton [63][65] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - **Consumption Volume**: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 15,207 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,066 tons [73] - **Tin Materials**: This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August rebounded slightly [75] - **End - User Consumption**: In November 2025, the end - user production performance was good, with the monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all rebounding. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also rebounded month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in sync with the performance of tin prices [82][84][89]