瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪锡市场周报 供需两弱交投平淡 预计锡价震荡调整 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 研究员： 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锡主力震荡下跌，周线涨跌幅为-0.33%，振幅1.72%。截止本周主力合约收盘报 价265930元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国8月制造业PMI初值53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力加剧。工信部等部 门：进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序，遏制低价无序竞争。基本面，缅甸佤邦虽重启采矿证审批，但 实际出矿需至四季度；刚果Bisie矿山计划分阶段恢复生产，目前锡矿加工费维持历史低位。冶炼 端，7月产量回升主要受部分企业复产、清理中间品等多重因素影响；不过云南产区原料短缺依旧 严峻；江西产区废料回收体系承压，开工率保持在较低水平。需求端，下游加工企业由于传统淡季， 大部分企业生产接货仅维持刚需，订单差强人意。近期锡价震荡，下游多数企业逢低刚需采买，部 分后点价订单。现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, the tin price fluctuated. Supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter as mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has resumed operation. However, the waste - tin recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, limiting refined output growth. Demand remains weak during the domestic off - season, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power is strong. Inventory increased slightly in July. Overall, there is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly in August, with the domestic price ranging from 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and the LME price from 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost end**: Mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved, and tin ore supply is expected to recover significantly in Q4. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a 11.44% month - on - month and 7.08% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total imports were 62,130 tons, a 32.41% year - on - year decrease [12] - **Supply end**: Domestic tin ore imports have increased, relieving the raw material shortage in Yunnan and slightly increasing the operating rate. In Jiangxi, the waste - tin recycling system is under pressure, with secondary material circulation down over 30%, limiting refined output growth. In July 2025, refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a 15.42% month - on - month increase and 0.09% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative output was 87,200 tons, a 1.95% year - on - year decrease [12] - **Demand end**: Domestic off - season consumption is poor, with low downstream orders and cautious restocking. After the photovoltaic rush - installation ended, orders in East China decreased, and some producers' operating rates declined. In July, the combined production schedule of household appliances decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Orders in consumer electronics and automotive electronics are weak, while demand from tin - plated sheets and chemicals is stable [12] - **Conclusion**: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak. Due to the ongoing resumption in Myanmar, the tin price may fluctuate weakly in August, with the domestic price range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and the LME price range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [12][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented [19][20] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, and processing fees remain low [27] 3.4 Supply End - Domestic refined tin production and its year - on - year changes are presented through figures. The waste - tin recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the secondary material circulation has decreased by over 30%, affecting refined output [31][33] 3.5 Demand End - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales growth rate has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales maintain high growth [46] - **PC and smartphone**: In Q2 2025, global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year, the largest increase since 2022. Mobile phone consumption remains sluggish, with global smartphone shipments expected to increase by 0.6% in 2025 to 1.24 billion units [49] - **Consumer electronics**: The "trade - in" subsidy policy has stimulated some growth, but the demand recovery is limited [52] - **Automobile**: In H1 2025, new - energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year [55] - **Household appliances**: The production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs shows different trends, but overall, the demand is not strong [57][59] - **Photovoltaic**: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation growth rate close to 100% year - on - year, but the actual impact is less than expected [62] - **Other fields**: Tin consumption in the tin - plated sheet (tinplate) field is declining, while PVC production increased slightly in H1 [65] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance sheet shows data on refined tin production, exports, imports, social inventory, inventory changes, and apparent consumption from January 2023 to June 2025 [70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the decline in global tin ore grades and limited supply increments, coupled with rising costs, the tin price is expected to increase due to tight supply and high demand driven by AI development and a recovery in consumer electronics [1][2] - The report recommends specific stocks: Xiyes Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Silver Tin (000426.SZ), and mentions related stocks such as Huaxi Nonferrous (600301.SH) [1] Group 2 - Supply disturbances are ongoing, with limited incremental production from mines; the complete cost of tin mining is projected to rise from approximately $25,581 per ton in 2022 to $33,800 per ton by 2027 [2] - The global tin production is expected to reach 300,000 tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] Group 3 - The downstream industry is experiencing high demand, particularly in soldering materials, which account for about 56% of tin consumption; the stabilization of the semiconductor cycle is expected to drive rapid demand for solder [3] - A projected supply gap of 8,300 tons in global refined tin by 2025 highlights the supply-demand imbalance [3] Group 4 - The global monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could positively impact asset prices and upstream raw material prices [4] - The inflation rate in the U.S. is gradually approaching the target of 2%, indicating a shift in market expectations for demand [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased significantly. Fundamentally, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain, and Thailand has restricted the import of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, raw material shortages and cost pressures coexist in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry, the operating rate of some producers has decreased, and the electronics industry has entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have increased slightly, but overseas inventories continue to decline [4]. - Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark, with the 10 - day moving average providing support [4]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly this week, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include strong US employment data and a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamental factors involve supply uncertainties from Myanmar and Congo, and weak demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries. Technically, positions are stable, and attention should be paid to the 270,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Premium**: This week, the futures price fluctuated, and the spot premium was lowered. As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 266,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,560 yuan/ton or 0.58% from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,805 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton or 0.01% from June 27 [7]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.19, an increase of 0.05 from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.94, an increase of 0.03 from June 26 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 55,224 lots, a decrease of 4,270 lots or 7.18% from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -1,309 lots, a decrease of 5,196 lots from June 23 [15][16]. 3.3 Industry Chain 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin production was -0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of -0.01%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative refined tin production was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [21][22]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On July 4, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 13.33% from June 27. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 8.7% from June 27 [25]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of July 4, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was -6,588 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,725.45 yuan/ton from June 27. In May 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of July 3, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,165 tons, an increase of 50 tons or 2.36% from June 26. As of July 4, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons or 3.49% from last week. As of July 4, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 6,807 tons, an increase of 256 tons or 3.91% from June 27 [38]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: From January to May 2025, the integrated circuit production was 193.46 billion pieces, an increase of 23.18 billion pieces or 13.61% compared with the same period last year [41]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. As of May 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the critical role of tin in the semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced packaging technologies, driven by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and computing power [2][3][4] - Tin-based solder is essential for semiconductor packaging processes, with the global advanced semiconductor packaging market projected to grow from $37.05 billion in 2024 to $87.23 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 10.20% [3] - The demand for tin resources is highly sensitive to AI computing architectures, with an elasticity coefficient of 1.35 for training AI architectures, indicating a significant increase in tin usage with performance improvements [5][6] Group 2 - Global tin resources are unevenly distributed, with a total reserve of approximately 4.3 million tons in 2023, a decrease of 6.52% year-on-year, marking the lowest level in nearly 20 years [7][8] - The global tin production in 2023 was 312,000 tons, a decline of 2.35% year-on-year, with Indonesia, China, and Myanmar being the top producers [7] - The sustainability of global tin resources is challenged by the depletion of high-grade deposits, increasing mining costs, and environmental pressures [9][10] Group 3 - China's tin resources are concentrated in regions like Yunnan, which holds about 60% of the national total, but the country faces a mismatch in supply and demand due to regional disparities [13] - China's dependence on tin imports has increased, with imports reaching 249,000 tons in 2024, a 39.67% increase since 2019 [13][14] - The establishment of a national strategic reserve for tin resources is becoming increasingly important due to rising external uncertainties in supply [15] Group 4 - Various countries have developed strategic reserve systems for tin due to its strategic significance and supply volatility, with Japan implementing measures to diversify supply sources and establish reserves [16][17] - The U.S. and EU have also created frameworks for critical metal reserves, including tin, to enhance supply chain resilience [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the price of tin will fluctuate with a bias towards strength. Tin ore supply remains tight, though long - term supply recovery is clear. Demand is mixed, with some sectors like photovoltaic showing weakness, while new energy vehicle consumption is strong. [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - US initial jobless claims decreased, and continuing claims reached the highest level in years. The US Q3 GDP had a quarterly contraction greater than expected, and consumer spending also declined. The conflict between Israel and Iran eased, reducing supply concerns. Market confidence in economic growth was insufficient, and the metal index fell. Tin ore supply remained tight, and the复产 rhythm of Burmese mines might slow. Supply recovery was clear in the long - term but uncertain in the short - term. On the demand side, photovoltaic tin strip orders declined, and overall demand was lackluster. [5] 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Tin ore and scrap supply remained tight, inventory decreased, and the US dollar index dropped significantly. [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Consumption in electronics and automotive electronics was sluggish, and photovoltaic module production declined significantly. [7] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: In April 2025, global refined tin production was 29,800 tons, consumption was 30,400 tons, with a supply shortage of 600 tons. From January - April 2025, production was 119,400 tons, consumption was 111,700 tons, with a supply surplus of 7,700 tons. In April 2025, global tin ore production was 27,600 tons, and from January - April, it was 103,700 tons. [9] - **Price and Basis**: This week, tin futures prices strengthened. The basis of Shanghai tin was 1,340 yuan/ton, and the premium increased. The LME tin premium was 96 US dollars/ton, and the discount strengthened. [12] - **Smelter Operating Rate**: As of last Friday, the combined operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped to 47.05%. Yunnan had some plants for maintenance and reduction, and Jiangxi's rate declined significantly, about 35 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. Future operating rates might remain low or decline. [15] - **Import Data**: In May 2025, China's tin ore imports were 13,400 tons (about 6,518 metal tons), a 36.39% month - on - month and 59.84% year - on - year increase. From January - May, cumulative imports were 50,200 tons, a 36.51% year - on - year decrease. The increase in May was mainly due to Africa. [18] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, domestic refined tin production was 14,670 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month and 8.34% year - on - year decrease. From January - May, cumulative production was 72,900 tons, a 0.75% year - on - year decrease. In June, production is expected to be around 13,800 tons. [21] - **Import and Export Data**: In May, China's tin ingot imports were 2,076 tons, an 84.04% month - on - month and 225.9% year - on - year increase. Exports were 1,770 tons, an 8.19% month - on - month increase. Cumulative imports and exports from January - May were 9,584 tons, with a 38.48% year - on - year increase. [24] - **New Energy Vehicle Data**: In May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a 35% and 36.9% year - on - year increase. From January - May, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a 45.2% and 44% year - on - year increase. [28] - **Solder Operating Rate**: In April, the solder operating rate was 76.7%, a 0.89% month - on - month increase and 2.7% year - on - year decrease. Large and medium - sized solder plants had an upward trend, while small ones were weak. [30] - **Inventory Data**: The latest LME tin inventory was 2,115 tons, the lowest in two years. As of the week of June 20, Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1.99% to 6,965 tons, the lowest in three months. [34] 3.4后市研判 - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with a bias towards strength. [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall tin market is in a pattern of tight current situation and weak future expectations. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, while the demand shows a marginal weakening trend. The supply - demand balance will shift from a gap to a tight balance [2][3][90][91][92]. - In the second half of the year, the US dollar index is still expected to be weak, but the decline may slow down. The main driving factors will shift from valuation regression to the convergence of the growth rate gap between the US dollar and non - US currencies and the increasing hedging demand for US dollar assets [2][15][90]. - It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high in the second half of the year, with around 270,000 yuan having a certain cost - effectiveness. Option strategies such as buying put options or selling call options are recommended, and attention should also be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage strategies and inter - monthly positive arbitrage strategies [3][92]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 Tin Price Trend Review - In H1 2025, the central price of Shanghai tin slightly increased. In March, the price soared rapidly, reaching a recent high of 299,990 yuan on April 2, and then returned to around 260,000 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the increase of Shanghai tin was 8.46%, and LME tin increased by 13.27%. The large price fluctuations led to the non - commercial net long positions of LME tin breaking historical records again in March [7]. - The price fluctuations in H1 2025 can be divided into three stages: from New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, the price fluctuated narrowly between 242,000 and 254,000 yuan; from after the Spring Festival to before Tomb - sweeping Festival, the price fluctuated and rose to a historical high of 299,900 yuan under the influence of supply - side disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar; from after Tomb - sweeping Festival to now, the price returned to around 260,000 yuan, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) [10][11][12]. 3.2 2025 H2 Tin Fundamental Market Outlook 3.2.1 US Dollar Index - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the US GDP will slow down marginally in 2025, with the actual GDP year - on - year growth rate expected to be 1.7% in Q2, 0.9% in Q3, and 0.6% in Q4. The year - on - year growth rate may reach a low point in Q4, and the US economy is expected to rebound marginally in 2026, with an annual real GDP growth rate of 1.5%, which may be stronger than the 1.3% in 2025 [14]. - The year - on - year growth rate of the US CPI is expected to rebound in Q3, reaching around 2.9%, and then decline from Q4 to early 2026. The US dollar index will still be weak in the second half of the year, but the decline may slow down. The main driving factors will shift from valuation regression to the convergence of the growth rate gap between the US dollar and non - US currencies and the increasing hedging demand for US dollar assets [15]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - **Myanmar**: As of now, the resumption of production in Myanmar is still uncertain. In an optimistic scenario, some mines may start exporting in August, and the import volume of tin from Myanmar to China in the second half of the year is estimated to increase by about 3,075 tons compared with the first half. In a pessimistic scenario, the incremental supply may be less than 1,000 tons [31][32]. - **Congo (Kinshasa)**: The production in Congo (Kinshasa) is recovering. It is expected that the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) to China will increase by 3,000 - 4,000 metal tons in the second half of the year compared with the first half [36]. - **Other countries**: The production of other countries also shows an obvious increase. The import volume from other countries (excluding Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar) in the first half of the year still made a positive contribution of 2,611 tons [37]. - **New projects**: The new tin - mining projects planned to be put into production in 2025 have not been progressing smoothly. It is estimated that the new production capacity in 2025 will be 2,620 tons (in an optimistic scenario), and the production capacity will continue to be released from 2026 - 2027, with a total potential new supply of 38,480 tons [52][57]. 3.2.3 Demand Side - **Consumer electronics**: The global consumer electronics market is weak in 2025. The growth of global smartphone shipments is sluggish, with an expected year - on - year growth of 0.6% to reach 1.24 billion units in 2025. The ideal replacement cycle has been extended to 31.1 months. The global PC market is also not optimistic, but the emerging fields such as AI - related wearables and semiconductors are rising, partially offsetting the weakness of traditional consumer electronics [59][60][68]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the photovoltaic field, due to policy changes, there were "430" and "531" rush - installation effects in the first half of 2025, which advanced the installation demand in the third quarter. It is expected that the new domestic installation in the third quarter will be about 30GW, a year - on - year decrease of 49%. The annual new domestic photovoltaic installation is expected to be about 240 - 250GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of around - 10%. The new overseas photovoltaic installation is expected to be about 270GW, with a year - on - year growth rate slowing down to only about 1% [81][82][83]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2025, the global tin supply is estimated to be 374,000 tons, and the total global demand is 381,000 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8%. There is a small supply - demand gap of 7,000 tons globally. In China, the supply is about 186,000 tons, and the demand is about 189,000 tons, with a potential supply - demand gap of 3,000 tons. The fundamentals will weaken in the second half of the year compared with the first half, with supply increasing by 2.6% and demand decreasing by 4.1%, and the supply - demand balance will shift from a gap to a tight balance [3][92]. - Investment strategies include short - selling when the price is high in the second half of the year, with around 270,000 yuan having a certain cost - effectiveness. Option strategies such as buying put options or selling call options are recommended, and attention should also be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage strategies and inter - monthly positive arbitrage strategies [3][92].

Audit Opinion - The audit report states that the financial statements of Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory Co., Ltd. fairly reflect its financial position and operating results as of December 31, 2024, in accordance with accounting standards [1][2][3]. Management and Governance Responsibilities - The management is responsible for preparing the financial statements in accordance with accounting standards and maintaining internal controls to prevent material misstatements due to fraud or error [2][3]. - The governance body oversees the financial reporting process [2]. Auditor's Responsibilities - The auditor's goal is to obtain reasonable assurance that the financial statements are free from material misstatement, whether due to fraud or error [3][4]. - The auditor assesses risks of material misstatement and designs audit procedures to address these risks [3][4]. Company Overview - Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory Co., Ltd. was established on August 24, 2016, and renamed on June 18, 2024, with a registered capital of 130 million RMB [5]. - The company operates in mineral resource research, technology development, and related services [5]. Financial Reporting Basis - The financial statements are prepared on a going concern basis, following the accounting standards issued by the Ministry of Finance [5]. - The company adheres to the accounting policies and estimates outlined in the financial statement notes [5]. Important Accounting Policies - The accounting period is based on the calendar year, from January 1 to December 31 [5]. - The company uses the historical cost principle for accounting, except for certain financial assets measured at fair value [5][6]. Consolidation Method - The consolidation scope is determined based on control, including the company and all subsidiaries [7][8]. - The financial results of subsidiaries are included in the consolidated financial statements from the date control is obtained [8][9]. Financial Instruments - Financial assets are classified based on the business model and cash flow characteristics, including those measured at amortized cost and fair value [13][14]. - The company recognizes expected credit losses based on credit risk assessments [17][23].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company Limited maintains a stable credit rating of AA+ due to its leading position in the tin industry, significant resource reserves, and strong financial performance, despite facing challenges from industry cyclicality and declining resource grades [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Yunnan Tin Company is recognized as a global leader in the tin industry, with substantial resource reserves and production capacity [1][7]. - The company has a strong market share, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% for tin products in 2024 [12][13]. Financial Performance - The total assets of the company were reported at 366.43 billion yuan as of March 2025, with total liabilities at 148.03 billion yuan [3][26]. - The company achieved a net profit of 15.70 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 40.51% compared to the previous year [23][26]. - Operating revenue for 2024 was 519.98 billion yuan, with a slight decrease attributed to a reduction in trade business scale [23][26]. Industry Context - The tin market is experiencing price fluctuations, with prices rising from 230,000 yuan/ton to 280,000 yuan/ton, influenced by tightening global supply and recovering demand [6][7]. - The overall economic environment in China is expected to support continued growth, although external uncertainties may pose risks [5][6]. Resource Management - The company has significant mining resources concentrated in the Honghe and Wenshan regions, with proven reserves of tin, copper, zinc, and indium [10][11]. - Resource reserves for tin have decreased from 66.70 million tons in 2022 to 62.62 million tons in 2024, indicating a need for ongoing exploration and resource management [11][12]. Risk Factors - The company faces risks from the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals industry, which can impact profitability due to price volatility [6][7]. - Declining grades of resources and lower processing fees are also potential challenges that could affect the company's financial performance [1][12]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency expects Yunnan Tin Company to maintain its credit rating over the next 12 to 18 months, provided it can enhance its capital structure and sustain profitability [1][2]. - The company is focused on strategic initiatives to enhance resource exploration and modernize mining operations, aiming to solidify its position as a key supplier of non-ferrous metals [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the relaxation of US restrictions on chip exports to Gulf countries are offset by the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State. This may cause the Shanghai tin price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price was 257,000 yuan, down 7,690 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 96,332 lots, an increase of 64,437 lots; the open interest was 28,221 lots, an increase of 15,738 lots; the inventory was 7,984 tons, a decrease of 14 tons. The basis between spot and futures was 7,900 yuan, an increase of 7,790 yuan [1]. - **London Tin Futures**: On May 28, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) was $31,495, down $915 from the previous day. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -$55, an increase of $56; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $27, an increase of $7. The global inventory was 2,680 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Price Ratio**: The Shanghai - London tin price ratio was 8.17 on May 28, 2025, down 0.01 from the previous day [1]. Company News - Inner Mongolia Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd. plans to have its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) Mining Co., Ltd., acquire all the issued shares of Atlantic Tin Limited at a price of A$0.24 per share through an off - market conditional offer. The acquisition is subject to relevant regulatory approvals in Australia [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Myanmar, the Manxiang mine in Wa State has adjusted its fee standards, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产. Domestic tin concentrate processing fees are oscillating downward, indicating a tightening supply of tin ore. The expected increase in scrap tin supply is difficult to change the tight situation. The operating rates of refined tin production in Yunnan and Jiangxi have decreased. Malaysia's MSC has suspended tin production, and Indonesia has adjusted its export policies. The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased, while the social inventory in China has increased [1]. - **Demand Side**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic welding strips has decreased, which may lead to a decline in the operating rate and inventory of tin solder in May in China. The import and export volume of welding strips may change accordingly. The production volume of tin - plated sheets in May may increase, while the import and export volumes may decrease. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries in China has remained flat [1].