Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8045 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 384,707 lots, the net position of the top 20 is - 5935 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 51,701 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon price difference is 5 [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9050 yuan/ton, the Si main contract basis is - 65 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,560 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1690 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons, the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, the weekly organic silicon DMC operating rate is 68.24%, the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.645 million tons, and the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons [2]. Industry News - The US Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) states that the federal photovoltaic tax credit costs $25 billion annually but saves residents $51 billion in electricity bills and brings $15 billion in tax revenue. Canceling the subsidy would increase electricity bills, affect over 300,000 jobs, and thousands of billions in investments. Trump signed a spending bill that restricts many new energy sources and affects the demand of the new energy industry [2]. Viewpoint Summary - From the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. The electricity price in the southwest region has decreased, and large factories have plans to start production. In July, the electricity price in the southwest will further decrease, and small and medium - sized enterprises also have复产 plans. However, due to an anti - involution meeting, the probability of small factories starting furnaces is low. In the Xinjiang Yili region in the northwest, the government will continue to subsidize production enterprises with electricity price subsidies, and the supply will remain loose. From the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. The demand from these three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives imposes harsher cuts to tax credits for the clean energy sector than anticipated, leading to a significant decline in the stock prices of renewable energy companies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Renewable Energy Companies - NextEra Energy, the largest renewable energy developer in the U.S., saw its stock price drop by 6.4% following the announcement of the tax bill [1]. - Enphase Energy, which produces solar systems and battery technologies, experienced a stock loss of 19.6% [1]. - SolarEdge, an inverter and battery supplier, saw its stock shrink by approximately 25% [1]. - Sunrun, a residential solar company, faced a dramatic stock decline of 37% [1]. Group 2: Changes to Tax Credits - The new bill significantly reduces tax incentives for clean energy compared to the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, with residential solar tax credits set to be eliminated by the end of 2025 and commercial solar tax credits gradually decreasing starting in 2029 [3][4]. - The residential solar tax credit, which currently offers a 30% federal tax credit, will be fully phased out by 2032, while commercial tax credits will drop to 80% in 2029, 60% in 2030, 40% in 2031, and be eliminated by 2032 [3][4]. Group 3: Implications for Solar Leasing - A critical new provision in the bill prohibits solar leasing companies from applying for commercial investment tax credits (ITC), which could have catastrophic effects on the rooftop solar industry, where approximately 70% of installations use leasing models [4]. - Analysts have indicated that this change could signify the end of the residential solar business in the U.S. [4]. Group 4: Changes in Project Qualification Standards - The qualification criteria for commercial project tax credits have shifted from a "construction begins" standard with a four-year safe harbor to a "placed in service" standard, eliminating the grace period [5]. - This adjustment particularly impacts utility-scale projects, which require longer construction timelines, leading to declines in related solar stocks [5]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The Invesco Solar ETF, which tracks U.S. solar companies, saw a net asset value decline of 7.45% following the announcement [5]. - Analysts have warned that green energy stocks may continue to decline as the implications of the tax bill unfold [5]. - The overall sentiment among analysts is that there is currently no compelling reason to hold U.S. solar company stocks due to the government's focus on eliminating green subsidies [6].