点击注册小程序 （1）本周碳酸锂和氢氧化锂价格分别为17.19 、16.26 万元/吨，环比+19.6%、+12.4%。（2）本周硫酸钴 价格9.53 万元/吨，环比+0%。（3）本周磷酸铁锂、523型正极材料价格分别为5.24 、19.38 万元/吨，环比 +0%、+3.4%。（4）本周氧化镨钕价格890.57 元/公斤，环比+4.8%。 光伏新材料：多晶硅价格下跌 （1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格6.16 美元/千克，环比 -0.5%。（2）本周EVA价格9,650元/吨，环比+0%，处 于2013年来较低位置。（3）本周3.2mm光伏玻璃镀膜价格24.0 元/平米，环比+0%。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 军工新材料：电解钴价格上涨 （1）本周电解钴价格43.60 万元 ...

有色金属 2026 年 2 月 26 日 氧化镨钕价格已至 85 万元/吨，近一个月涨 26%、近三个月涨 56% ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20260209-20260215） 要点 军工新材料：电解钴价格上涨。（1）本周电解钴价格 42.30 万元/吨，环比 +0.7%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.74 ，环比+0.7%；电解钴和硫酸钴价 格比值为 4.31 ，环比+0.7%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比 +0%。毛利-9.19 元/千克。 新能源车新材料：氢氧化锂价格上涨。（1）本周碳酸锂和氢氧化锂价格分别 为 14.38 、13.76 万元/吨，环比+6.9%、+3.9%。（2）本周硫酸钴价格 9.53 万元/吨，环比+0%。（3）本周磷酸铁锂、523 型正极材料价格分别为 5.24 、18.73 万元/吨，环比+0%、+4.1%。（4）本周氧化镨钕价格 849.82 元/公斤，环比+12.2%。 光伏新材料：价格持平。（1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格 6.19 美元/千克，环比 +0%。（2）本周 EVA 价格 9,650 元/吨，环比+0%，处于 2013 年来较低位 置。（3）本 ...

策略配置研究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 中观行业比较月报（2026 年 1 月） 轮动中把握景气线索，关注涨价与科技 证券分析师 平安观点： 1. 上游周期：地缘风险、流动性偏宽等多重驱动下，1 月商品走强波动加大。 有色涨幅最为显著，月末价格回落、波动加大，多数品种已升至近两年 90% 以上高分位区间；石油、化工品接力上涨，但价格水平多数仍处于历史中枢以 下，化工品内部分化明显；煤炭价格波动向上，钢铁、建材表现平淡。 2. 中游制造：新能源产业链材料涨价，出口支撑部分行业量的景气。1 月新 能源光伏、电池产业链材料价格普遍上涨，多数品种已处近两年 80%以上分 位，但仍远低于 2022 年高点；12 月电池出口有支撑；电网设备迎"十五五" 政策支持。机械制造的近一年价格指数相对平稳，12 月通用机械、挖掘机出 口维持高增，机器人产量延续高增。汽车内销偏弱出口韧性，12 月乘用车、 新能源车销量环比负增，但出口相对韧性；商用车内销、出口环比同步增长。 3. TMT：存储引领半导体涨价周期，AI 软硬件需求延续向好。1 月存储 DXI 指数环比上涨 28.3%，同比涨幅超 10 倍，智能设备销售均价同步上涨 ...

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt this week is 435,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous week. The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.76, down 4.5% [3] - The price of carbon fiber this week is 83.8 CNY/kg, remaining unchanged, with a gross profit of -9.19 CNY/kg [3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are 171,100 CNY/ton and 161,100 CNY/ton, respectively, with increases of 8.4% and 8.2% [4] - The price of cobalt sulfate this week is 95,300 CNY/ton, up by 0.21% [4] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 52,400 CNY/ton and 200,200 CNY/ton, with changes of 0% and +4.6%, respectively [4] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 672.66 CNY/kg, down by 0.3% [4] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 7.88 USD/kg, unchanged from the previous week [5] - The price of EVA is 9,650 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.8%, remaining at a low level since 2013 [5] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 24.0 CNY/sqm, unchanged [5] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - The prices of zirconium-related materials are stable, with prices for zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand remaining unchanged [6] - The uranium price for December 2025 is projected to be 63.51 USD/lb, reflecting a 2.0% increase [6] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt tetroxide is 363,000 CNY/ton, unchanged, while lithium cobalt oxide is priced at 402.0 CNY/kg, up by 0.5% [7] - The price of silicon carbide is 5,600.00 CNY/ton, with a significant increase of 9.8% [7] - The prices of high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 1,840.00 CNY/kg, 3,450.00 CNY/kg, and 3,550.00 CNY/kg, with changes of +1.4%, -4.2%, and -4.1%, respectively [7] - The price of germanium dioxide is 8,950 CNY/kg, unchanged [7] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices of platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 672.50 CNY/g, 2,715.00 CNY/g, and 1,675.00 CNY/g, with increases of 11.5%, 5.0%, and 1.8%, respectively [8]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Evergreen has assigned a "2" issuer rating to GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (GCL-Poly), reflecting the company's environmental benefits in the solar materials sector, while noting an increase in absolute environmental metrics due to capacity expansion [2][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - GCL-Poly is a photovoltaic materials manufacturer operating 13 production bases in China and is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company primarily produces photovoltaic-grade polysilicon and wafers for downstream solar cell manufacturers. GCL-Poly's market share is projected to be 24% in the first half of 2025 [2][8]. Group 2: Environmental Impact - Fitch Evergreen believes that GCL-Poly's core business supports the expansion of solar power generation capacity, contributing to climate change mitigation. The company uses Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) technology to produce granular polysilicon, which has a lower "cradle-to-gate" carbon footprint compared to polysilicon produced by the Siemens process, thereby reducing the implicit carbon emissions of downstream solar components [2][8]. - GCL-Poly has established an environmental policy covering climate change and natural resource management at the group level, with all subsidiaries certified under ISO 14001:2015. The company discloses Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions and reports carbon intensity metrics for its main business lines. Despite an increase in absolute energy use and waste generation due to capacity expansion, carbon intensity has decreased year-on-year. The company aims to achieve Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon neutrality by 2040 and value chain carbon neutrality by 2050 [2][8]. Group 3: Social and Governance Aspects - The social status of GCL-Poly is viewed neutrally. The company has established human rights and labor rights policies, along with an externally certified occupational safety management system, and has not reported any serious incidents in recent years. Customer satisfaction remains high. However, the gender ratio among employees and senior management is imbalanced, and the company has not disclosed gender pay gap metrics [3][9]. - The governance status of GCL-Poly is viewed positively. The company's financial statements have received unqualified audit opinions for the past three years. Risk management and internal audit functions are institutionalized. The overall independence and diversity of the board align with local listing company practices, though there remains a gap compared to international best practices [3][9].

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt is 400,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.8%. The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.77, up by 1.1% week-on-week, while the price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to sulfuric cobalt is 4.39, up by 1.4% [4] - Carbon fiber price remains at 83.8 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week, resulting in a gross profit of -9.53 CNY/kg [4] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle New Materials - The prices of electric carbon, industrial carbon, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide are 92,100 CNY/ton, 89,300 CNY/ton, and 81,500 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 4.3%, 4.07%, and 2.9%. The price gap between electric carbon and industrial carbon is at its lowest since November 2024, indicating a potential weakening in lithium battery market conditions compared to the industrial sector [5] - The price of sulfuric cobalt is 88,400 CNY/ton, with no change week-on-week [5] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 39,100 CNY/ton and 156,800 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +2.62% and -1.5% [5] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 566.92 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 3.4% [5] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 6.50 USD/kg, with no change week-on-week [6] - The price of EVA is 10,100 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged and at a low level since 2013 [6] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 24.0 CNY/square meter, with no change week-on-week [6] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - The prices of zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand are 13,750 CNY/ton, 145 CNY/kg, 9,000 CNY/kg, 13,450 CNY/ton, and 14,012.5 CNY/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged week-on-week. The uranium price for October 2025 is 63.96 USD/pound, with a week-on-week increase of 1.7% [7] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt oxide is 344,800 CNY/ton, with no change week-on-week. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 3,810 CNY/kg, also unchanged [8] - The price of silicon carbide is 5,800 CNY/ton, with no change week-on-week. The prices of high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 1,805 CNY/kg, 2,405 CNY/kg, and 2,505 CNY/kg respectively, all remaining unchanged [9] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices of platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 412.00 CNY/g, 2,065.00 CNY/g, and 1,100.00 CNY/g respectively, with week-on-week changes of +4.6%, -3.3%, and 0% [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon supply will contract next week as Sichuan, Yunnan and other regions enter the dry season, with increased production cuts and some enterprises halting production due to rising electricity prices, despite expected restarts in the Northwest [2] - On the demand side, organic silicon maintains a rigid demand for industrial silicon but consumption growth is limited; polysilicon currently supports industrial silicon procurement but may reduce demand due to rising costs and potential production cuts; aluminum alloy has stable demand for industrial silicon but limited price - pulling ability [2] - Although industrial silicon showed little movement today, the volume and price of downstream organic silicon are rising, which is expected to drive industrial silicon up, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,145 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the position of the main contract is 267,758 lots, up 5,622 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,574 lots, down 473 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 45,387 lots, down 549 lots; the basis between the December and January industrial silicon contracts is 10 yuan, up 10 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 355 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 2,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,939.85 tons, an increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 21,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.26%, an increase of 0.7%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.776 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - China's cumulative installed capacity of operational power energy storage projects is 137.9 GW, accounting for 37.1% of the global market, with a year - on - year increase of 59.9%; the cumulative installed capacity of new - type energy storage is 78.3 GW, accounting for 47% of the global market, and lithium - ion batteries dominate, accounting for 97.1% of the cumulative installed capacity of new - type energy storage [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon will shrink next week as the dry - season production cuts in Southwest China are more significant, despite the复产 expectations in Northwest China [2] - The downstream demand for industrial silicon is diverse. Organic silicon maintains a rigid - demand state but has limited consumption upside due to the sluggish terminal market. The short - term weekly production of polysilicon is still high, but there are expectations of production cuts, which may reduce the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the aluminum alloy industry is stable but has limited marginal impact on prices [2] - Industrial silicon follows the polysilicon trend and remains stable. It is expected to have a higher probability of oscillating upward in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,195 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main contract position is 262,136 hands, down 8,823 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,101 hands, up 1,755 hands; the GZEE warehouse receipts are 45,936 hands, down 143 hands; the basis between the December and January industrial silicon contracts is 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) are 410 yuan/ton, 2,410 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 70,232.72 tons, an increase of 1,939.85 tons; the monthly export volume is 602.27 tons, a decrease of 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.26%, an increase of 0.7%; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1,776,000 tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 11, 2025, Hesheng Silicon Industry announced that Fuda Industrial plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 27.0705 million shares (2.29% of the total share capital) in the next three months for its own capital needs [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, with the arrival of the dry season, the industrial silicon market further reduced production. The demand for polysilicon was highly uncertain, while the demand for silicone and aluminum alloy was relatively stable. Cost provided support for the price floor, but high inventory restricted the upward price movement. Today, industrial silicon bottomed out and rebounded but still closed lower. Overall, the bottom support strengthened, and it is expected to continue oscillating. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips and pay attention to operational risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the position of the main contract was 228,268 lots, down 297 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -56,668 lots, up 770 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 46,161 lots, down 1,092 lots; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was -430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was -430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 310 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,800 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 68.56%, down 1.49 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260.SH) released its Q3 2025 report, with operating income of 5.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 75.6675 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 84.12%. Although still showing negative year - on - year growth, the single - quarter profit index turned positive compared to the loss in the first half of the year. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agreed to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, as Sichuan and Yunnan transition from the wet season to the dry season in October, production costs for manufacturers increased, and some enterprises with exhausted raw materials stopped production. As November approached, the scale of production cuts in the dry season expanded further. In Xinjiang, with stable and low - cost power supply, some manufacturers actively increased production, with an increase in the number of open furnaces and continuous release of production capacity. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in silicone, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. For silicone, inventory was lower than the historical average, production profit was flat, and it provided certain rigid - demand procurement support for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, inventory reached 282,600 tons, higher than the historical average. Rising silicon wafer prices were beneficial for polysilicon demand, but production cuts in the dry season were expected to have a negative impact on industrial silicon demand. For aluminum alloy, the operating rate of enterprises remained stable, the demand for industrial silicon remained high, and the demand performance was relatively stable, but its marginal impact on the price of industrial silicon was limited [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Next week, in the industrial silicon market, production cuts in the southwest and increased production in the northwest will occur simultaneously; there is high uncertainty in the demand for polysilicon, while the demand for organosilicon and aluminum alloy is relatively stable; costs provide support for prices at the lower end, but high inventories limit the upside potential of prices. Industrial silicon continued to fluctuate at the bottom today. If production capacity continues to decline, industrial silicon prices are expected to find support. However, the short - term main contract is near the high - price level, so it is recommended to short on rallies [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 211,670 hands, up 10,152 hands; the net position of the top 20 was - 55,846 hands, down 7,555 hands; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 48,044 hands, down 141 hands; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was - 375 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was - 375 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2030 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly industrial silicon exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organosilicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organosilicon DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy production was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation installed capacity exceeded that of thermal power for the first time, marking that the energy revolution has entered a critical stage. The large - scale construction and grid - connection of new energy power stations represented by wind and solar energy have become the key forces in achieving the "dual - carbon" goal. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, leading to an increase in manufacturers' production costs. Some enterprises with exhausted raw materials have chosen to stop production. As November approaches, the scale of production cuts during the dry season is expected to further expand. In Xinjiang, with stable and low - cost power supply, some manufacturers are actively increasing production, with an increase in the number of furnaces in operation and continuous release of production capacity [2] 3.7 Demand Analysis - In the organosilicon segment, inventories are lower than the historical average. The production profit of organosilicon has slightly rebounded but remains in the loss range, providing some rigid - demand procurement support for industrial silicon. Most organosilicon manufacturers still have some pre - sold orders, and many are in maintenance or plan to enter maintenance, which maintains the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, inventories are as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average. The prices of silicon wafers are flat, and the prices of solar cells are falling, with poor downstream transmission. Leading enterprises have maintenance plans, and there is a risk of weakening demand support for industrial silicon in the future. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable, with high demand for industrial silicon, showing relatively stable demand, but the marginal effect on industrial silicon prices is limited [2]