000元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8635 | 245 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 283578 | 3710 -12 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -77137 | 14988 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50613 | | | | 9-10月工业硅价差 | -40 | -10 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9250 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon has started to decline because downstream demand is insufficient to support the upward movement of the futures market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. However, some funds have started to make early arrangements. If the decline in polysilicon eases later, short - term long positions can be considered on dips. Operationally, if the price later drops below 8000 yuan, medium - to long - term long positions can be considered on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8675 yuan/ton, a increase of 75 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,035 lots, a decrease of 5465 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,101 lots, an increase of 2466 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,693 lots, a decrease of 8 lots; the price spread between September and October industrial silicon was - 5 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On August 13, it was reported that in Jiangxi, non - fossil energy has developed rapidly, with the new - energy installed capacity increasing by 1.6 times compared to the end of 2020. Wind and photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded thermal power and become one of the main power sources in Jiangxi. The number of county - level regions connected to long - distance natural gas pipelines has increased by 42 compared to 2020, basically achieving full coverage of 100 counties (cities, districts). In the industrial silicon sector, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity - price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to rise, and it is expected that the output in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low profit margins due to the previous low prices, and their enthusiasm for resuming production is not high, so the overall output remains relatively stable [2] Viewpoint Summary - In the organic silicon segment, the market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, the operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid - demand support for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy segment, enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed, the inventory continues to grow, the price is declining, and it is in a passive de - stocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. It is recommended to consider medium - to - long - term long positions on dips if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [3][4]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the position of the main contract is 284,500 lots, an increase of 5,640 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 94,567 lots, a decrease of 4,841 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,658 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [3]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industrial security, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Southwest China, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to increase, and the output in Southwest China is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [3]. - **Demand Side**: - **Organic Silicon**: The market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, which drives the demand for industrial silicon to some extent [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, which strongly supports the rigid demand for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory continues to increase, the price drops, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The lithium price is expected to rise in the short term due to the suspension of operations at the Jiangxia lithium mine, along with supply disruptions from other mines [4] - The report highlights the price trends of various materials, including a decrease in cobalt prices and an increase in lithium concentrate prices [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Military New Materials - Electrolytic cobalt price is 260,000 CNY/ton, down 1.9% week-on-week, with a price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder at 0.89, down 6.9% [1][10] - Carbon fiber price remains stable at 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit of -8.64 CNY/kg [1][21] New Energy Vehicle Materials - Lithium concentrate price is 669 USD/ton, up 4.69% week-on-week [1][8] - Prices for battery-grade lithium hydroxide and other lithium products show mixed trends, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide at 65,600 CNY/ton, up 0.6% [1][28] - Phosphate lithium price is 327,000 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week [1][40] Photovoltaic New Materials - Photovoltaic-grade polysilicon price is stable at 4.94 USD/kg [2] - EVA price remains at 10,100 CNY/ton, at a low level since 2013 [2] Nuclear Power New Materials - Uranium price is 59.58 USD/pound, up 4.0% [2] Other Materials - Rhodium price increased by 2.4% to 1,910 CNY/gram [3][18] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential in the lithium sector, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. Industrial silicon rose due to the increase in coking coal today, but the spot price did not perform well. It is expected that the spot will drag down the upward movement of futures. In terms of operation, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 208,736 lots, a week - on - week increase of 56,958 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 66,326 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 9,647 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,806 lots, a week - on - week increase of 494 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the Si main contract was 550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,750 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output was 305,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume was 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 70.08%, a week - on - week increase of 4.97%; the monthly aluminum alloy output was 1.669 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume was 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 1st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Special Energy - Saving Supervision Tasks for the Polysilicon Industry in 2025, involving 41 enterprises. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. The resumption of production in the south - western production areas during the wet season is accelerating, and many enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have started furnaces. New production capacity is expected to be released next week, mainly from small and medium - sized enterprises, which will challenge the current price. Meanwhile, the production cut in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the north - western and south - western regions will gradually appear. There is also a large potential for production capacity release [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the demand side, in the organic silicon sector, the spot price of organic silicon has risen, the production profit of enterprises has slightly declined, the operating rate of enterprises has increased, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are currently reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and the downstream photovoltaic industry is "anti - involution", with a significant decline in demand. Although the output increased slightly last week, the increase is limited. It is expected that the merger and reorganization of production capacity will intensify, and the potential production capacity will be gradually released in August, with a slight increase in the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices are falling, and they are in a passive de - stocking state, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to slow down [2]

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt has increased to 265,000 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.9% [3] - The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.95, up by 4.5% week-on-week; the price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt sulfate is 5.15, up by 6.2% [3] - Carbon fiber price remains at 83.8 CNY/kg with a gross profit of -8.24 CNY/kg [3] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The CIF price of Li2O 5% lithium concentrate is 677 USD/ton, down by 4.51% week-on-week [4] - Prices for battery-grade lithium hydroxide, industrial-grade lithium carbonate, and battery-grade lithium carbonate are 73,200 CNY/ton, 70,200 CNY/ton, and 65,200 CNY/ton, with week-on-week increases of 7.9%, 6.95%, and 8.2% respectively [4] - The price of cobalt sulfate is 50,800 CNY/ton, up by 2.01% week-on-week [4] - Prices for lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 32,700 CNY/ton and 111,000 CNY/ton, remaining stable with slight increases of 0% and 0.4% respectively [4] - The price of neodymium oxide is 531.15 CNY/kg, up by 3.5% week-on-week [4] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 4.94 USD/kg, remaining stable [5] - EVA price is 10,100 CNY/ton, down by 0.5%, at a low level since 2013 [5] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating remains at 24.0 CNY/sqm [5] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - Prices for zirconium-related materials are stable, with prices for zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand at 14,750 CNY/ton, 150 CNY/kg, 9,000 CNY/kg, 13,950 CNY/ton, and 14,012.5 CNY/ton respectively [6] - The uranium price is projected to be 59.58 USD/lb in June 2025, up by 4.0% [6] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt tetroxide is 207,500 CNY/ton, up by 2.47% week-on-week [7] - The price of lithium cobalt oxide is stable at 175.0 CNY/kg [7] - The price of silicon carbide remains at 5,400.00 CNY/ton [7] - Prices for high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 1,755.00 CNY/kg, 2,575.00 CNY/kg, and 2,675.00 CNY/kg, with changes of -1.7%, 0%, and 0% respectively [7] - The price of germanium dioxide is stable at 9,800 CNY/kg, with 50% used for optical fibers and 15% for electronics and solar devices [7] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices for platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 312.00 CNY/g, 1,865.00 CNY/g, and 1,305.00 CNY/g, with changes of -6.3%, +9.4%, and +5.7% respectively [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowing trend. Short - term investment should be on hold, and a high - short strategy is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,760 yuan/ton, down 525 yuan; the main contract position is 212,932 lots, down 29,745 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 66,694 lots, up 7,394 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 49,846 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 5 yuan, up 40 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 1,040 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - Starting from the trading time on August 1, 2025, the trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted. Non - futures company members or customers are limited to a maximum of 500 lots of daily opening positions on the industrial silicon futures SI2509 contract, and 2,000 lots on the SI2510, SI2511, SI2512, and SI2601 contracts [2]. - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1, with a 50% tariff on imported copper. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. In the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain their current production rhythm. In the southwest region, enterprises in Baoshan are actively resuming production, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers rely on self - owned power plants, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - The supply side may see a potential increase in overall output due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions. On the demand side, in the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen due to a monomer plant fire, supporting industrial silicon; in the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, and downstream demand has declined significantly; in the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, and demand is difficult to boost [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of industrial silicon has a potential increasing trend due to the resumption of production in some southwestern regions, while the total demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the main contract position is 242,677 lots, down 34,057 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 74,088 lots, up 5,853 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,113 lots; the industrial silicon price spread from August to September is - 45 yuan, up 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 10,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 10,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 715 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 65.11%, down 6.27 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification announcement stating that some self - media reports about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, are seriously inconsistent with the actual situation. The clarification may be related to the rumored acquisition and storage event in the polysilicon industry. Trump announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper starting from August 1 [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, in the northwest Ili region, large - scale production enterprises maintain the existing production rhythm; in the southwest region, some areas are resuming production, and overall output has a potential increasing trend. On the demand side, the demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon is slowing down [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to slow. The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise today. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a high - short strategy in the medium - to long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the main contract position was 336,274 lots, up 1,498 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 68,472 lots, down 18,540 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,106 lots, up 53 lots; the spread between August and September industrial silicon was - 20 yuan, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 10,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 410 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - At the Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Datong) Seminar, it was proposed to revise the comprehensive energy consumption standards for polysilicon products to promote the elimination of backward production capacity. In the industrial silicon supply side, the fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable, large enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns, the production cost in the Southwest has decreased, the resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but that in Nujiang and Dehong is below expectations, and the overall operating rate in Sichuan has not increased significantly [2] 3.7 Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased significantly, and the operating rate has increased, supporting industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is in a state of reduced load operation, downstream demand has declined significantly, and it is expected that production will be difficult to increase, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and demand for industrial silicon is difficult to boost [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. Today, industrial silicon hit the daily limit, mainly due to the increase in coal and energy prices. The spot price has not risen yet, and the current overall spot profit is substantial with high market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,655 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan; the position of the main contract is 380,961 lots, down 2,335 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 49,932 lots, up 20,525 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,141 lots, down 252 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,950 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, up 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.38%, up 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The deputy director of the National Data Bureau stated that the bureau will promote the market - oriented reform of data elements and the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. The National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal production verification [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. In the Southwest, production costs have decreased, with varying progress in enterprise resumption. On the demand side, in the organic silicon field, the spot price has increased, the production profit has declined, the cost has risen, and the operating rate has increased, supporting industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and the demand for industrial silicon has declined. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2]. 3.8 Key Focus - There is no news today [2].