Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of China's export growth despite concerns over declining demand from the U.S. market, attributing this to China's diversified export strategy and strong demand from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) [1][2]. Group 1: Export Diversification - China's export structure is diversifying, reducing reliance on the U.S. market, with the share of U.S. imports from China dropping to the lowest level since 2017, at only 9.4% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The share of exports to BRI countries is increasing, with the second quarter of 2025 seeing a historical high of 16.1% in export share, indicating a structural shift in China's export dynamics [2][4]. Group 2: Global Demand and Investment - Non-U.S. countries are expected to maintain strong import demand, driven by their own industrialization and infrastructure needs, which supports China's export growth [3][4]. - The "Tariff 2.0" policy has catalyzed a new wave of global industrial migration, with Chinese capital goods exports increasing significantly to BRI regions, reflecting robust investment demand [3][5]. Group 3: Resilience Against U.S. Market Fluctuations - Historical patterns show that non-U.S. countries can experience independent import growth, even when U.S. demand is weak, as seen in 2017-2018, providing a stable foundation for China's exports [4]. - The ongoing industrial investments in BRI countries are not affected by U.S. consumer market fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of China's export performance [4][8]. Group 4: Consumer Market Growth - China's manufacturing sector is gaining traction in consumer markets of BRI countries, with exports to Africa showing significant growth, such as a 54.8% increase in motor vehicle exports by September 2025 [5]. - The shift from a focus on cost advantages to technological advantages in Chinese manufacturing is aligning with the upgrading consumer demands in BRI countries, fostering a dual-driven export model of capital and consumer goods [5][6]. Group 5: Long-term Strategic Outlook - China's long-term commitment to the BRI has strengthened its ties with global supply chains, making it less vulnerable to U.S. trade policies and enhancing its export resilience [6][7]. - The gradual easing of global trade uncertainties is expected to further boost investment demand in BRI countries, solidifying China's export growth momentum [8].

Trade Relations - Recent escalation in China-U.S. trade tensions, with the U.S. imposing 232 tariffs on wooden products and additional fees on Chinese vessels[6] - China has responded with countermeasures, including export controls on critical industries and technologies, particularly rare earth materials[6] - The U.S. plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on key software starting November 1, indicating a strategy to negotiate with China[6] Market Impact - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remains historically high, with WTO data showing resilience even during peak trade friction[6] - China's rare earth exports to countries like Japan and South Korea have resumed, excluding the U.S., complicating the situation for American industries reliant on these materials[6] Agricultural Dynamics - China, as the largest importer of U.S. soybeans (60% of global imports), has not booked any U.S. soybean shipments for Q4, raising concerns for U.S. agricultural states[6] - The U.S. soybean harvest season typically begins in September, and the lack of Chinese orders has led to fluctuating support rates for Trump in key agricultural states[6] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the current trade tensions are a short-term issue, with expectations for continued negotiations by the end of October[6] - The potential for U.S. soybean exports to China remains, as China's remaining import needs are comparable to last year's U.S. exports[6] - The report anticipates that global trade policy uncertainty will stabilize, allowing capital goods related to global industry migration to remain strong in exports[6]