Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global supply is ample, with favorable weather in US soybean - growing areas and weak Chinese demand, causing soybean futures to decline for the second consecutive week. The good weather in August, the key period for soybean yield formation, has hit the confidence of bulls. The "global double - harvest" pattern of Brazil and the US will suppress soybean prices until the end of the year. [4] - The Sino - US trade issue is a potential uncertainty. Although the US Treasury Secretary said that an agreement is "almost reached", the market remains cautious. Chinese buyers are turning to South American supplies, and they ordered 3000 tons of Argentine soybean meal this week. [4] - The market is waiting for the new global supply - demand report from the US Department of Agriculture on August 12. Without unexpected positive news, soybean prices are unlikely to rebound quickly. [4] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the daytime session on the reporting day). [4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4122 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.36%), and 4133 yuan/ton at night, up 7 yuan (+0.17%). [1] - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3010 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 yuan (+0.13%), and 3023 yuan/ton at night, up 19 yuan (+0.63%). [1] - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 988 cents/bu, down 1.25 cents (-0.13%). [1] - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 280.4 dollars/short ton, up 4.4 dollars (+1.59%). [1] - **Spot Data**: - In East China, the price of soybean meal in Lianyungang was 2960 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The price in Zhangjiagang Dafu remained unchanged. [1] - In Shandong, some prices remained unchanged, and some had slight increases or decreases. For example, the price in some regions was 2920 - 2950 yuan/ton, flat to up 20 yuan from the previous day. [1] - In South China, the price was 2930 - 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 - 40 yuan from the previous day. [1] - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 15.5 million tons per day, and the previous trading volume was 41.5 million tons per day. [1] - The inventory data of the previous week was not available (na), and the inventory of the week before was 96.1 million tons. [1] b. Macro and Industry News - On August 1, the CBOT soybean market closed lower for the second consecutive week due to the prospects of a bumper harvest and weak demand. [2][4] - The US Department of Agriculture will release a new global supply - demand report on August 12, and the market is looking forward to more information on production forecasts and export prospects. [4]

Report Overview - Date: August 4, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products 1. Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Wait for low - level long - position building as the influence of macro and crude oil wanes [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Mainly in a shock - adjustment phase, with attention on the China - US trade agreement [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, while Dalian soybean meal oscillated relatively strongly [2]. - **Soybean No.1**: Rebound and oscillate [2]. - **Corn**: Oscillate [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the crushing progress in Brazil [2]. - **Cotton**: Be aware of the impact of external markets [2]. - **Eggs**: Run weakly [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot performance is below expectations, and the near - end is weak [2]. - **Peanuts**: Focus on the weather in the producing areas [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price had a 0.11% increase, and the night - session had a - 1.41% decrease; soybean oil's daily - session closing price rose 1.00%, and the night - session fell - 0.58%. The trading volume and open interest of both had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US July non - farm employment growth was lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly. OPEC + is expected to approve a new round of production increase plans, and the Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2509 had a 0.13% increase in the daily - session and a 0.63% increase in the night - session; DCE soybean No.1 2509 decreased by 0.36% in the daily - session and increased by 0.17% in the night - session. Spot prices in different regions also had changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US soybean futures fell for the second consecutive week due to factors such as good weather in the US soybean - producing areas, weak demand from China, and potential uncertainties in China - US trade. The market is waiting for the USDA's new global supply - demand report on August 12 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of + 1, and soybean No.1 has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot markets such as Northeast China, Jinzhou, and Guangdong had corresponding changes. Futures prices of different contracts also fluctuated, and trading volume, open interest, and basis had their own values [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port prices of northern corn were stable, the price of Guangdong Shekou increased, and the prices of corn in Northeast and North China had different trends. The prices of substitute products such as sorghum and barley were also provided [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures had year - on - year changes, and the spreads also had corresponding changes [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's central - southern crushing progress accelerated, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and the import and production data of different countries and regions in different seasons were reported [17][18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts such as CF2509 and CY2509 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and the prices of related products also fluctuated. Spreads also had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was good, the price of pure - cotton yarn followed the decline of cotton, and the domestic cotton - textile market was weak. ICE cotton futures fell last Friday [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts such as eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and related feed and livestock prices also had corresponding values [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, futures prices of different contracts, trading volume, open interest, and spreads all had corresponding values [32]. - **Market Logic**: The market's expected price increase from late July to early August did not meet expectations, and the market pressure is large. The 9 - month contract is expected to run weakly, and the spread structure has changed to a reverse spread [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning and Henan were stable, futures prices of different contracts had slight declines, and trading volume, open interest, and spreads had their own values [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: The spot markets in different regions such as Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong had different trading situations [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [38].