他还说："失业率和其他劳动力市场指标的稳定性，使我们在考虑政策调整时能够谨慎行事。" 鲍威尔"放鸽" 鲍威尔为9月16日-17日会议降息留了余地，他表示："基线展望以及风险平衡的变化可能需要我们调整政策立场。" 在谈及劳动力市场时，鲍威尔指出，"虽然表面上处于平衡，但这是一种奇特的平衡，源于劳动力供给和需求的双双显著放缓。这种异常情况表明就业面 临的下行风险正在上升。" 他表示，一个"合理的基本情境"是关税带来一次性的物价水平上升，但这些影响需要时间才能完全传导到经济中。 鲍威尔称："短期内，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行——这是一个具有挑战性的局面。" 鲍威尔还表示，美联储已经采用了新的政策框架，删除了"央行追求通胀在一段时间内平均达到2%"的表述，以及"基于就业未达最大化水平来作出决 策"的表述。 市场反应 鲍威尔讲话之后，市场的初步反应明显偏鸽。美元指数跳水至日内低点，跌约 0.5% 。美债全线反弹，两年期国债收益率大跌 9个基点 至 3.70% 。 几乎所有人原本都预期鲍威尔不会释放任何将9月降息摆上台面的信号。而过去一两天，包括波士顿联储主席Collins在内的官员表态似乎也强化了这种预 期，结 ...

Report Overview - Date: August 4, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products 1. Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Wait for low - level long - position building as the influence of macro and crude oil wanes [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Mainly in a shock - adjustment phase, with attention on the China - US trade agreement [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, while Dalian soybean meal oscillated relatively strongly [2]. - **Soybean No.1**: Rebound and oscillate [2]. - **Corn**: Oscillate [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the crushing progress in Brazil [2]. - **Cotton**: Be aware of the impact of external markets [2]. - **Eggs**: Run weakly [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot performance is below expectations, and the near - end is weak [2]. - **Peanuts**: Focus on the weather in the producing areas [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price had a 0.11% increase, and the night - session had a - 1.41% decrease; soybean oil's daily - session closing price rose 1.00%, and the night - session fell - 0.58%. The trading volume and open interest of both had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US July non - farm employment growth was lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly. OPEC + is expected to approve a new round of production increase plans, and the Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2509 had a 0.13% increase in the daily - session and a 0.63% increase in the night - session; DCE soybean No.1 2509 decreased by 0.36% in the daily - session and increased by 0.17% in the night - session. Spot prices in different regions also had changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US soybean futures fell for the second consecutive week due to factors such as good weather in the US soybean - producing areas, weak demand from China, and potential uncertainties in China - US trade. The market is waiting for the USDA's new global supply - demand report on August 12 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of + 1, and soybean No.1 has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot markets such as Northeast China, Jinzhou, and Guangdong had corresponding changes. Futures prices of different contracts also fluctuated, and trading volume, open interest, and basis had their own values [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port prices of northern corn were stable, the price of Guangdong Shekou increased, and the prices of corn in Northeast and North China had different trends. The prices of substitute products such as sorghum and barley were also provided [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures had year - on - year changes, and the spreads also had corresponding changes [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's central - southern crushing progress accelerated, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and the import and production data of different countries and regions in different seasons were reported [17][18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts such as CF2509 and CY2509 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and the prices of related products also fluctuated. Spreads also had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was good, the price of pure - cotton yarn followed the decline of cotton, and the domestic cotton - textile market was weak. ICE cotton futures fell last Friday [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts such as eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and related feed and livestock prices also had corresponding values [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, futures prices of different contracts, trading volume, open interest, and spreads all had corresponding values [32]. - **Market Logic**: The market's expected price increase from late July to early August did not meet expectations, and the market pressure is large. The 9 - month contract is expected to run weakly, and the spread structure has changed to a reverse spread [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning and Henan were stable, futures prices of different contracts had slight declines, and trading volume, open interest, and spreads had their own values [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: The spot markets in different regions such as Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong had different trading situations [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [38].

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll report is deemed "disappointing," but it does not imply that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Employment Data - The July employment data was weaker than expected, indicating potential concerns in the labor market [1] - Despite the disappointing report, the labor market is considered to be fundamentally balanced [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - Confidence remains in the decisions made earlier in the week, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - Monitoring labor conditions is crucial, especially in the context of persistently high inflation [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July is expected to show an increase of 104,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in June, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.2%, slightly worse than the previous 4.1%, but still below the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast of 4.5% [1] - Average hourly earnings are expected to grow by 0.3% month-over-month, while average work hours are anticipated to remain stable at 34.2 hours [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, down from 246,000, indicating a potential improvement in the job market [2] - The Challenger job cuts report showed an increase of 62,000 layoffs in July, up from 48,000 in June, suggesting some stress in the labor market [2] - The labor market gap reported by the Conference Board fell to a cycle low of 11.3 percentage points, significantly below the 33.2 percentage points average in 2019 [2] Group 3 - Bank of America predicts a net job addition of 60,000 in July, primarily due to a decline in government employment, which is expected to decrease by 25,000 [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a total job increase of 100,000, with private sector jobs expected to grow by 100,000 and government jobs remaining flat [3] - Analysts note that tariff policies may negatively impact manufacturing employment, which has been declining at an average of 5,000 jobs per month in Q2 [3] Group 4 - Bank of America suggests that it may be too early to see the substantial effects of immigration restrictions on the job market, although negative impacts are anticipated in sectors like leisure and hospitality [4] Group 5 - The market is looking for a "soft but not terrible" jobs report to maintain interest rate cut expectations, with a balanced labor market being the goal for the Federal Reserve [5] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have differing views on market reactions to job data, with Goldman being more conservative and JPMorgan predicting positive market responses to job additions above 100,000 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market remains balanced from various perspectives according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of stability, indicating a healthy economic environment [1]

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that core inflation in the second quarter may not have slowed as initially expected [1] - June data suggests that the labor market is moving further towards a balanced state [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report indicates a significant reduction in immigration since mid-2024, leading to a slowdown in labor supply growth, which helps maintain balance in the labor market as job growth cools down [1] - Despite the slowdown, the current U.S. job market is described as "robust," with moderate job growth and low unemployment rates, indicating a return to balance in the labor market compared to pre-pandemic levels [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains flexibility in its current monetary policy, keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% while awaiting clearer economic signals before making further decisions [1] Group 2 - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate direction were expressed, with some favoring a rate cut in the fall while others suggest a more aggressive approach as early as July [2] - Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that there is no urgent need for a rate cut, citing the resilience of the job market and consumer spending, while also being cautious about inflation remaining above target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariffs and their potential impact on consumer prices, business confidence, and supply chain stability was highlighted, indicating challenges for the Federal Reserve in assessing policy outcomes [3]

Labor Market - The U.S. unemployment rate in May was 4.2%, remaining stable and at historical lows since mid-last year [2] - Average monthly job additions in the first five months of the year were 124,000, down from 168,000 last year [2] - The employment cost index for private sector workers showed a 12-month increase of 3.4% as of March, down from a peak of 5.5% in mid-2022 [2] - Labor supply growth has slowed compared to previous years, with a notable decrease in immigration since mid-last year [2] Inflation Analysis - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.1% year-over-year in April, down from 2.6% at the end of last year [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5% year-over-year in April, down from 2.9% at the end of last year [3] - Short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly this year, primarily due to tariff concerns, while most long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the Fed's 2% target [3] Economic Activity - U.S. economic activity paused in the first quarter, with a real GDP annualized growth rate of -0.2%, largely due to a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases [4] - Consumer spending growth has slowed this year, with a real growth rate of approximately 1% in the first quarter, compared to robust growth rates of around 3% expected for 2023 and 2024 [5] Financial Market Conditions - Short- and medium-term nominal Treasury yields have moderately declined this year, reflecting a significant drop in real yields [6] - The market anticipates that the federal funds rate will decrease by over 100 basis points to 3.3% by the end of 2026 [6] - The overall financial system remains resilient despite significant volatility in April, with total debt of households and non-financial corporations continuing to decline as a percentage of GDP, now at the lowest level in 20 years [6] International Situation - Foreign economic activity is expected to moderately expand in the first quarter of 2025, supported by increased demand from U.S. importers ahead of anticipated tariff hikes [7] - Recent indicators show a slowdown in foreign growth, with many foreign economies experiencing significant declines in business conditions and confidence this year [7] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities while slowing the pace of reductions to facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserve balances [9] - The Fed is committed to supporting full employment and returning inflation to the 2% target, carefully evaluating upcoming data and evolving risks when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate [9] - The report indicates a cautious monetary policy stance by the Fed, balancing inflation pressures with the need to maintain labor market stability while monitoring uncertainties in domestic and international economic developments [9]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Projections - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts in June, aligning with market expectations[1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 was lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%, indicating a potential rise in stagflation risk[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 was raised to 4.5%, while the core PCE inflation rate expectation was increased to 3.1%[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The number of Federal Reserve members predicting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7, indicating growing internal disagreement on rate cuts[3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a 50 basis point cut forecast for this year, with potential adjustments in future meetings[3] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become evident in the inflation data from July-August[3] Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Economic Implications - Following the June talks, the U.S. plans to maintain an average tariff of 55% on Chinese goods, while China will ease rare earth export controls[4] - There is uncertainty regarding the permanence of these trade commitments, as no clear trade agreement has been established[4] - The potential for a comprehensive implementation of personalized tariffs poses a downside risk to the U.S. economy[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the labor market is fundamentally in a balanced state [1] Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of balance, indicating stability in employment levels [1] - This balance suggests that there may not be immediate pressures for significant changes in monetary policy [1]