美联储哈马克：劳动力市场总体上处于平衡状态。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 231,000, marking the largest weekly decline in nearly four years, down from 264,000 the previous week [1] - Despite the decrease in initial claims indicating no large-scale layoffs, the number of continuing claims remains above 1.9 million, indicating persistent concerns in the labor market [1] - The average duration of unemployment rose to 24.5 weeks in August, the longest since April 2022, suggesting increased difficulty for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [1] Group 2 - The labor market is described as a "strange balance" by the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with both labor supply and demand weakening [1] - Job creation has significantly slowed, with an average monthly increase of only 29,000 jobs over the past three months, and non-farm payrolls in August only growing by 22,000, far below expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve recently announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating that concerns over employment have surpassed inflation risks [1] Group 3 - The current economic situation is complex, with retail sales growth driven primarily by high-income households, while middle and low-income groups face significant inflationary pressures [2] - The widening wealth gap may lead to decreased sensitivity of consumption to policy changes, introducing new uncertainties in economic growth [2] - Structural contradictions in the labor market and inflation pressures present multiple challenges for the U.S. economy, requiring policymakers to find a difficult balance between a weak labor market and ongoing inflationary pressures [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated potential for interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting, citing changes in baseline outlook and risk balance as reasons for policy adjustments [3][4][5] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy changes, with the labor market remaining close to maximum employment and inflation having decreased from pandemic highs [9] - Recent economic challenges include increased tariffs reshaping global trade, tighter immigration policies slowing labor force growth, and long-term changes in tax and regulatory policies impacting economic growth and productivity [10] Labor Market Insights - The July employment report revealed a significant slowdown in job creation, with an average of only 35,000 new jobs added over the past three months, far below the projected 168,000 for 2024 [10][11] - Despite the slowdown, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, and other labor market indicators show only slight weakening, suggesting a peculiar balance in the labor market that poses rising downside risks for employment [10][11] Inflation Dynamics - Inflation risks are currently tilted upward, while employment risks are leaning downward, creating a challenging scenario for policymakers [4][13] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, with tariffs contributing to rising consumer prices, although these effects are expected to be one-time shocks rather than sustained inflation [11][12] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, market reactions were notably dovish, with the dollar index dropping approximately 0.5% and U.S. Treasury yields falling sharply, particularly the two-year yield which decreased by 9 basis points to 3.70% [4][5] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to about 90% from 75% prior to Powell's speech, with significant gains observed in major U.S. stock indices, including a rise of over 700 points in the Dow Jones [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on China's pension system due to demographic changes, including a declining young labor force and a rising number of retirees, leading to a potential imbalance in the labor market and pension funding [2][10]. Labor Market Dynamics - By 2040, there will be a significant decline in the young labor force, with millions fewer entering the job market each year due to the two-child policy initiated in 2017 [2]. - The annual exit of older workers from the labor market is projected to be between 27 million to 29 million, primarily from the baby boom generation born in 1962 and 1963 [2]. - The net difference between the number of workers exiting and entering the labor market is approximately 10 million annually, suggesting a supply-demand imbalance that could lead to wage increases [2]. Pension System Overview - In 2024, China's total pension expenditure is projected to exceed 7 trillion yuan, with 310 million individuals aged 60 and above, resulting in an aging rate of 22% [3]. - The average monthly pension for rural residents is approximately 246 yuan, while enterprise employees receive around 3,200 yuan, and civil servants receive about 7,256 yuan [3][4]. Pension Disparities - The pension system shows significant disparities, with rural retirees receiving an average of 1153.97 yuan, while civil servants receive around 3461.91 yuan [4]. - The article highlights that the pension system was established in 1991 for enterprises and in 2014 for civil servants, leading to unequal contributions and benefits [4][5]. Social Security Fund Dynamics - The social security fund's income has increased significantly, from 39.2 billion yuan in 2014 to an estimated 118.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 203% growth [9]. - The fund's expenditure has also risen, with a projected 106.1 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 215% increase since 2014 [9]. - The balance of the social security fund is sufficient to cover approximately 1 year and 3 months of expenditures, indicating a growing financial pressure on the system [9]. Future Projections - By 2034, the number of individuals aged 60 and above is expected to reach 420 million, with an annual increase of 12 million retirees, further straining the pension system [10]. - The article emphasizes the necessity of mandatory social security contributions to ensure the sustainability of the pension system amid rising life expectancy and demographic shifts [10].

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July's non-farm payrolls increased by significantly less than expected, marking the lowest figure in nine months [1] - The revisions for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, with the new figures for those months being only 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, indicating a near standstill in job growth [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in July, suggesting that despite low job additions, the labor market is still balanced [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the end of July, but for the first time in 32 years, two board members voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2] - The internal division within the Fed was highlighted after the release of the July employment data, with some officials describing the job market as still robust despite the recent weak data [2][3] - The Fed's decision-making process is complicated by differing interpretations of the current economic conditions, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis of the labor market [2] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The current balance in the U.S. labor market is characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, primarily due to a decline in labor force participation rates [4] - Labor force participation has been decreasing since May, with a total decline of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year by July, reaching the lowest level since November 2022 [4] - The number of long-term unemployed individuals has risen to 1.83 million, the highest level since 2017, indicating a growing concern about job quality and market dynamics [4][5] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Inflation - The second quarter saw a decline in the growth rate of final domestic purchases to 1.2%, the weakest level since the end of 2022, raising concerns about future employment stability [5] - The PCE price index showed a rebound in inflation, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% in Q2, compared to 3.7% in Q1, indicating that inflationary pressures are still present [5] - There are indications that inflation may decrease again due to weak employment and reduced consumer demand, suggesting that timely interest rate cuts by the Fed could help stabilize the economy [5]

Report Overview - Date: August 4, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products 1. Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Wait for low - level long - position building as the influence of macro and crude oil wanes [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: Mainly in a shock - adjustment phase, with attention on the China - US trade agreement [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, while Dalian soybean meal oscillated relatively strongly [2]. - **Soybean No.1**: Rebound and oscillate [2]. - **Corn**: Oscillate [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the crushing progress in Brazil [2]. - **Cotton**: Be aware of the impact of external markets [2]. - **Eggs**: Run weakly [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot performance is below expectations, and the near - end is weak [2]. - **Peanuts**: Focus on the weather in the producing areas [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price had a 0.11% increase, and the night - session had a - 1.41% decrease; soybean oil's daily - session closing price rose 1.00%, and the night - session fell - 0.58%. The trading volume and open interest of both had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US July non - farm employment growth was lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly. OPEC + is expected to approve a new round of production increase plans, and the Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2509 had a 0.13% increase in the daily - session and a 0.63% increase in the night - session; DCE soybean No.1 2509 decreased by 0.36% in the daily - session and increased by 0.17% in the night - session. Spot prices in different regions also had changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US soybean futures fell for the second consecutive week due to factors such as good weather in the US soybean - producing areas, weak demand from China, and potential uncertainties in China - US trade. The market is waiting for the USDA's new global supply - demand report on August 12 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal has a trend intensity of + 1, and soybean No.1 has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of important spot markets such as Northeast China, Jinzhou, and Guangdong had corresponding changes. Futures prices of different contracts also fluctuated, and trading volume, open interest, and basis had their own values [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The port prices of northern corn were stable, the price of Guangdong Shekou increased, and the prices of corn in Northeast and North China had different trends. The prices of substitute products such as sorghum and barley were also provided [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of raw sugar, mainstream spot, and futures had year - on - year changes, and the spreads also had corresponding changes [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's central - southern crushing progress accelerated, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and the import and production data of different countries and regions in different seasons were reported [17][18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts such as CF2509 and CY2509 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and the prices of related products also fluctuated. Spreads also had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was good, the price of pure - cotton yarn followed the decline of cotton, and the domestic cotton - textile market was weak. ICE cotton futures fell last Friday [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts such as eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 had changes, and spot prices in different regions and related feed and livestock prices also had corresponding values [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong, futures prices of different contracts, trading volume, open interest, and spreads all had corresponding values [32]. - **Market Logic**: The market's expected price increase from late July to early August did not meet expectations, and the market pressure is large. The 9 - month contract is expected to run weakly, and the spread structure has changed to a reverse spread [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices in different regions such as Liaoning and Henan were stable, futures prices of different contracts had slight declines, and trading volume, open interest, and spreads had their own values [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: The spot markets in different regions such as Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong had different trading situations [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [38].

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll report is deemed "disappointing," but it does not imply that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Employment Data - The July employment data was weaker than expected, indicating potential concerns in the labor market [1] - Despite the disappointing report, the labor market is considered to be fundamentally balanced [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - Confidence remains in the decisions made earlier in the week, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - Monitoring labor conditions is crucial, especially in the context of persistently high inflation [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July is expected to show an increase of 104,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in June, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.2%, slightly worse than the previous 4.1%, but still below the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast of 4.5% [1] - Average hourly earnings are expected to grow by 0.3% month-over-month, while average work hours are anticipated to remain stable at 34.2 hours [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, down from 246,000, indicating a potential improvement in the job market [2] - The Challenger job cuts report showed an increase of 62,000 layoffs in July, up from 48,000 in June, suggesting some stress in the labor market [2] - The labor market gap reported by the Conference Board fell to a cycle low of 11.3 percentage points, significantly below the 33.2 percentage points average in 2019 [2] Group 3 - Bank of America predicts a net job addition of 60,000 in July, primarily due to a decline in government employment, which is expected to decrease by 25,000 [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a total job increase of 100,000, with private sector jobs expected to grow by 100,000 and government jobs remaining flat [3] - Analysts note that tariff policies may negatively impact manufacturing employment, which has been declining at an average of 5,000 jobs per month in Q2 [3] Group 4 - Bank of America suggests that it may be too early to see the substantial effects of immigration restrictions on the job market, although negative impacts are anticipated in sectors like leisure and hospitality [4] Group 5 - The market is looking for a "soft but not terrible" jobs report to maintain interest rate cut expectations, with a balanced labor market being the goal for the Federal Reserve [5] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have differing views on market reactions to job data, with Goldman being more conservative and JPMorgan predicting positive market responses to job additions above 100,000 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market remains balanced from various perspectives according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1 - The labor market is showing signs of stability, indicating a healthy economic environment [1]

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that core inflation in the second quarter may not have slowed as initially expected [1] - June data suggests that the labor market is moving further towards a balanced state [1]