Group 1 - The global economic growth forecast has been cautiously optimistic, with the International Monetary Fund adjusting its growth prediction from an average tariff rate of 24% to 17% for the U.S., indicating the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on global growth in 2025 and 2026 [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policies includes potential legal challenges and the possibility of additional tariffs on specific industries such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which could significantly impact regions like Singapore and Taiwan if tariffs reach 25% [2] - The imposition of a 40% tariff on goods exported to the U.S. via Vietnam by former President Trump introduces further uncertainty for Chinese companies' international strategies [2] Group 2 - The unpredictability of U.S. policies, including immigration, tariffs, and monetary policy, poses significant risks to the economy, with potential inflation and stagnation concerns arising from labor shortages and rising domestic product prices [3] - The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates may reduce the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets due to decreasing real yields, prompting investors to diversify their global asset allocations [3] - The potential for asset bubbles is a major concern for investors, although it is premature to declare that assets are fully inflated, as companies like Nvidia and Apple continue to show accelerating profit growth and substantial cash flow [4] Group 3 - Chinese technology companies have seen their valuations decrease as their profit growth has outpaced stock price increases, leading to lower valuations compared to earlier in the year [4] - The ongoing transition between old and new technologies is expected to create new investment expectations, with a high probability of asset bubble formation in a liquidity-rich environment [4] - Investors are encouraged to seize current investment opportunities amidst these dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is currently facing three major uncertainties that are primarily pressuring steel prices [1] Group 1: Market Pressures - The first uncertainty is the trajectory of the US-China "tariff war," with US tariffs on Chinese steel and related products reaching unprecedented levels, including a recent increase to 50% on steel and aluminum imports [2] - The second uncertainty is the global economic growth outlook, which has been negatively impacted by US tariff policies, leading to a pessimistic view of both US and global economic growth [3] - The third uncertainty involves China's steel production release, where despite government policies to control production, there remains a strong incentive for companies to increase output when prices rise, leading to a persistent oversupply situation [4] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite the ongoing impact of the US-China "tariff war," recent negotiations suggest that the situation may be stabilizing, with positive effects from China's counter-cyclical policies, particularly in the real estate market [5] - Industrial value-added output in China grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months of the year, with manufacturing output increasing by 6.9%, indicating resilience in steel consumption [6] - Fixed asset investment in China also showed a year-on-year growth of 4%, suggesting that steel consumption in this sector remains robust despite challenges in the real estate market [6]