Core Points - The article discusses the recent increase in tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on 66 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 50%, marking a significant rise from historical averages [1][3] - The average tariff level has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy and its implications for global economics [3][7] - The article raises questions about the long-term effects of these tariffs on the global economy and the potential for a new multipolar world order [1][7] Tariff as a Fiscal Tool - Tariffs are being used as a fiscal tool, with the government expecting $87 billion in tariff revenue for the first half of 2025, significantly impacting low-income households [3][4] - The burden of tariffs is primarily falling on consumers, particularly low-income groups, exacerbating wealth inequality [3][4] Tariff as an Industrial Protection Measure - The article highlights the decline of U.S. manufacturing since the 1950s and suggests that tariffs are a misguided approach to revitalize the sector without structural reforms [4][5] - The lack of investment in infrastructure and human capital is noted as a critical issue that tariffs alone cannot address [4] Tariff as a Negotiation Tool - Tariffs are being used as leverage in trade negotiations, with claims of significant investment commitments from other countries often being overstated [3][5] - The article points out that without improving productivity, the U.S. risks reducing consumer purchasing power [5] Tariff as a Geopolitical Weapon - The differential tariff rates reveal political motivations, with certain countries receiving preferential treatment while others face punitive rates [5] - The article suggests that this approach may lead to a reconfiguration of global trade alliances and a move towards de-dollarization [5] Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Recent economic indicators show a decline in consumer spending growth and employment, raising concerns about the sustainability of the tariff policy [7] - The potential for Trump to reverse some tariffs in response to economic pressures is discussed, but the damage to U.S. credibility in international trade may be lasting [7]

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The World Bank's report indicates a general decline in commodity prices, predicting a 12% drop by 2025 and an additional 5% drop in 2026 [1] - Energy prices, particularly oil, are the main drivers of this decline, with Brent crude oil expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024 [1] - Coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025 due to weakened demand and high inventory levels [1] Group 2: Metal and Mineral Prices - Metal and mineral prices are also on a downward trend, with copper prices expected to drop by 10% to approximately $8,200 per ton by 2025 [2] - Basic metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel are forecasted to decline by 10% to 13% [2] - The decrease in metal prices may lower manufacturing costs but is unlikely to stimulate consumer demand [2] Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - Agricultural commodity prices are generally declining, with wheat, corn, and rice expected to drop by 10.5% in 2025 due to ample supply and slowing demand [2] - Oilseed and edible oil prices are projected to decrease by 3% to 6% due to increased production and improved global inventories [2] - Prices for agricultural raw materials like cotton, rubber, and tobacco are anticipated to fall by 2% to 10% due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [2] Group 4: Economic Impacts of Commodity Price Declines - The decline in commodity prices will have varying impacts on different countries, helping to curb inflation and stabilize consumption in importing countries [3] - Energy and food price reductions are expected to lower the consumer price index (CPI) globally, particularly benefiting developed economies [3] - Resource-dependent economies, particularly those reliant on oil, gas, metals, and agricultural exports, will face challenges such as declining fiscal revenues and economic growth [3]