Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Lido Factors**: Strong macro - sentiment support with an increased expectation of Fed rate cuts leading to a general rise in the non - ferrous market; marginal improvement in stainless steel demand, continuous decline in inventory, and increased production scheduling supporting demand [3] - **Negative Factors**: Significant inventory accumulation with LME and Shanghai nickel inventories reaching new highs, prominent supply - surplus pressure; strong expectation of loose nickel ore supply, weakening cost support, and increased downward pressure on prices [3] - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: Suggest short - term range trading and pay attention to changes in the ore end and demand [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,850 yuan/ton, up 1,220 yuan or 1.01% week - on - week; SHFE nickel continuous contract 1 is 121,070 yuan/ton, up 1,240 yuan or 1.03%; SHFE nickel continuous contract 2 is 121,170 yuan/ton, up 1,170 yuan or 0.98%; SHFE nickel continuous contract 3 is 121,330 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan or 0.98%; LME nickel 3M is 15,130 dollars/ton, up 180 dollars or 0.92%. The trading volume is 96,611 lots, down 23,911 lots or 19.84% week - on - week; the open interest is 81,103 lots, down 14,364 lots or 15.1%; the warehouse receipt quantity is 20,687 tons, down 687 tons or 3.21%; the basis of the main contract is - 1,590 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan or 33.61% [4] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The closing price of stainless steel main contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 1% week - on - week; stainless steel continuous contract 1 is 12,935 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan or 1.02%; stainless steel continuous contract 2 is 12,995 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan or 1.09%; stainless steel continuous contract 3 is 13,080 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan or 1.08%. The trading volume is 85,499 lots, down 36,750 lots or 30.06% week - on - week; the open interest is 81,584 lots, down 5,891 lots or 6.73%; the warehouse receipt quantity is 103,226 tons, up 240 tons or 0.23%; the basis of the main contract is 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 3.03% [4] - **Nickel Spot**: The price of Jinchuan nickel is 123,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; imported nickel is 121,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; 1 electrolytic nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; nickel beans are 123,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04%; electrowon nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.04% [4] - **Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,486 tons, down 795 tons; LME nickel inventory is 211,212 tons, down 240 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 thousand tons, down 1.2 thousand tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, up 182 tons [4][6] Graphical Information - **Nickel Futures**: Graphs show the closing prices of SHFE nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading contract from February 2024 to June 2025 [7][8] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: A graph shows the closing price of stainless steel futures main contract from February 2024 to June 2025 [9][10] - **Nickel Spot**: A graph shows the average prices of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel from February 2024 to June 2025 [11][12] - **Supply and Inventory**: Graphs show China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel including imports, domestic social nickel inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans), LME nickel inventory, price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price, Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (duty - paid at port) price, China's and Indonesia's nickel - iron monthly production from different time periods [13][14][15] - **Downstream Products**: Graphs show the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally - purchased nickel sulfate in China, China's monthly production of nickel sulfate, the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors, the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory from different time periods [22][23][26]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank's report on commodity cycles post-COVID-19 indicates a significant shift in the frequency and volatility of commodity price cycles, suggesting a new era in commodity market dynamics [1][42]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Over the past 55 years, 27 types of commodities have experienced an average of 14 turning points, approximately every four years [37]. - The average duration of booms is 38 months, while recessions last an average of 52 months, indicating that recessions tend to last longer than booms [29][37]. - The average amplitude of price changes during booms and recessions is roughly similar, suggesting symmetrical price volatility [29][37]. Group 2: Historical Price Fluctuations - The study identifies three distinct periods of commodity price fluctuations: 1970-1985, 1986-2001, and 2002-2024, each characterized by different dynamics and influencing factors [8][12][41]. - The first period (1970-1985) was marked by significant volatility due to supply shocks, particularly in the energy market, with an average boom duration of 31 months and a longer recession period [8][12]. - The second period (1986-2001) exhibited more stability, with longer average durations for both booms (47 months) and recessions (56 months), attributed to technological advancements and market liberalization [12][41]. - The third period (2002 onwards) saw a resurgence in volatility driven by demand shocks from emerging markets, with shorter average durations for both booms (35 months) and recessions (46 months) [13][41]. Group 3: Post-Pandemic Commodity Behavior - Since 2020, the average duration of boom phases has decreased to 24 months, and recession durations have halved to 23 months, indicating a significant compression of the commodity cycle [16][42]. - The amplitude of price increases during booms has intensified, averaging 113%, while the severity of price declines during recessions has decreased to 79% [17][42]. - Various factors, including macroeconomic shocks, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related disruptions, have contributed to the observed deviations from historical commodity price patterns [17][19][42]. Group 4: Long-Term Trends and Structural Changes - The global energy transition is driving sustained demand for key minerals like lithium, copper, and nickel, exerting upward pressure on their prices [19][20]. - Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are heightening supply risks, particularly for agricultural commodities, which remain highly sensitive to climate conditions [19][20]. - The slowdown of global integration has led to increased geopolitical fragmentation, marked by trade barriers and sanctions, which disrupt commodity markets and contribute to price volatility [20][42].

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The World Bank's report indicates a general decline in commodity prices, predicting a 12% drop by 2025 and an additional 5% drop in 2026 [1] - Energy prices, particularly oil, are the main drivers of this decline, with Brent crude oil expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024 [1] - Coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025 due to weakened demand and high inventory levels [1] Group 2: Metal and Mineral Prices - Metal and mineral prices are also on a downward trend, with copper prices expected to drop by 10% to approximately $8,200 per ton by 2025 [2] - Basic metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel are forecasted to decline by 10% to 13% [2] - The decrease in metal prices may lower manufacturing costs but is unlikely to stimulate consumer demand [2] Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - Agricultural commodity prices are generally declining, with wheat, corn, and rice expected to drop by 10.5% in 2025 due to ample supply and slowing demand [2] - Oilseed and edible oil prices are projected to decrease by 3% to 6% due to increased production and improved global inventories [2] - Prices for agricultural raw materials like cotton, rubber, and tobacco are anticipated to fall by 2% to 10% due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [2] Group 4: Economic Impacts of Commodity Price Declines - The decline in commodity prices will have varying impacts on different countries, helping to curb inflation and stabilize consumption in importing countries [3] - Energy and food price reductions are expected to lower the consumer price index (CPI) globally, particularly benefiting developed economies [3] - Resource-dependent economies, particularly those reliant on oil, gas, metals, and agricultural exports, will face challenges such as declining fiscal revenues and economic growth [3]

Group 1: Vehicle-to-Grid Interaction - The first batch of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) interaction pilot projects has been announced, including 30 projects across 9 cities, allowing electric vehicles to both draw energy from and supply energy back to the grid [1] - V2G technology aims to create a "peak shaving and valley filling" cycle, but its practical benefits may be limited due to the already stable domestic power grid and the infrequent need for such interactions [1][2] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - In the first quarter, the top 100 real estate companies acquired land worth 2895.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, with the top ten companies showing a remarkable 162% increase in land acquisition [3] - The real estate market remains uneven, with core urban areas attracting more interest from developers, and a trend of joint land acquisitions emerging among companies to alleviate financial pressures [4] Group 3: Tin Market Dynamics - Tin has emerged as a leading commodity in 2023, with LME tin prices rising by approximately 31% year-to-date, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy [5] - Recent natural disasters in major tin-producing regions have exacerbated supply issues, contributing to the rapid price increase [5] Group 4: Economic Stimulus Measures in Sichuan - Sichuan province has introduced measures to stimulate economic recovery, including financial incentives for hosting large-scale events, with a maximum reward of 5 million yuan for event organizers [7] - The focus on boosting local consumption and supporting businesses reflects a broader strategy to enhance economic growth amid external uncertainties [8] Group 5: New Energy Vehicle Sales - New energy vehicle sales have surged, with several companies reporting significant year-on-year growth in March, particularly Zero Run, which became the top-selling new energy vehicle brand for the month [9] - The competitive landscape among new energy vehicle manufacturers is shifting rapidly, with sales driven by government subsidies and promotional strategies [9] Group 6: JD and Dada Merger - JD has finalized a privatization agreement with Dada, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, reflecting JD's strategy to enhance its logistics capabilities in the competitive instant delivery market [11][12] - Dada's financial struggles highlight the challenges in the instant delivery sector, necessitating continued support from JD to sustain operations [12] Group 7: Old Pile Gold's Performance - Old Pile Gold reported impressive financial results, with a 166% increase in sales to 9.8 billion yuan and a 254% rise in net profit, aiming to establish itself as a leading brand in the gold market [13] - The company's unique pricing strategy and focus on aesthetic appeal have contributed to its success, particularly during a period of rising gold prices [13][14]