Core Points - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export increased by 2.9% year-on-year, reaching 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [1] - China's imports from the EU averaged over 15 billion yuan daily, totaling 2.82 trillion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year [2] - Private enterprises in China have seen continuous growth in imports and exports for 21 consecutive quarters, with a total of 12.48 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, up 7.3% year-on-year [3] - The decline in import growth is attributed to uncertainties in international trade policies and falling prices of bulk commodities, with significant price drops in crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans [4] - China will implement zero tariffs for 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, contributing to double-digit growth in imports from these nations [5] - China's imports and exports have remained above 10 trillion yuan for nine consecutive quarters, with June's trade volume reaching 3.85 trillion yuan, a 5.2% increase [6] - Trade with the United States saw a decline of 9.3% year-on-year, with exports down by 9.9% and imports down by 7.7% [7] - Teams from China and the U.S. are working to implement the outcomes of the London framework [8][9] - China has successfully increased trade with over 190 countries and regions, with significant growth in trade with emerging markets, including a 14.4% increase in trade with Africa [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish Finance Minister stated that the decline in commodity prices, reduced market volatility, and improved inflation expectations will contribute to a decrease in inflation in the second half of the year [1] Group 1 - The decrease in commodity prices is expected to have a positive impact on inflation rates [1] - Market volatility has diminished, which may lead to a more stable economic environment [1] - Improved inflation expectations indicate a potential recovery in consumer confidence and spending [1]

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The World Bank's report indicates a general decline in commodity prices, predicting a 12% drop by 2025 and an additional 5% drop in 2026 [1] - Energy prices, particularly oil, are the main drivers of this decline, with Brent crude oil expected to average $64 per barrel in 2025, a 21% decrease from 2024 [1] - Coal prices are projected to fall by 27% in 2025 due to weakened demand and high inventory levels [1] Group 2: Metal and Mineral Prices - Metal and mineral prices are also on a downward trend, with copper prices expected to drop by 10% to approximately $8,200 per ton by 2025 [2] - Basic metals like aluminum, zinc, and nickel are forecasted to decline by 10% to 13% [2] - The decrease in metal prices may lower manufacturing costs but is unlikely to stimulate consumer demand [2] Group 3: Agricultural Commodity Prices - Agricultural commodity prices are generally declining, with wheat, corn, and rice expected to drop by 10.5% in 2025 due to ample supply and slowing demand [2] - Oilseed and edible oil prices are projected to decrease by 3% to 6% due to increased production and improved global inventories [2] - Prices for agricultural raw materials like cotton, rubber, and tobacco are anticipated to fall by 2% to 10% due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [2] Group 4: Economic Impacts of Commodity Price Declines - The decline in commodity prices will have varying impacts on different countries, helping to curb inflation and stabilize consumption in importing countries [3] - Energy and food price reductions are expected to lower the consumer price index (CPI) globally, particularly benefiting developed economies [3] - Resource-dependent economies, particularly those reliant on oil, gas, metals, and agricultural exports, will face challenges such as declining fiscal revenues and economic growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in commodity and oil prices is significantly impacting tax revenues in Brazil [1] Group 1 - The Brazilian Finance Minister highlighted that the drop in prices for commodities and oil has led to a reduction in tax income [1] - The government is facing challenges in maintaining fiscal balance due to these declining revenues [1] - The situation underscores the vulnerability of Brazil's economy to fluctuations in global commodity prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in commodity prices, if permanent, may offset the negative impact of recent foreign exchange fluctuations on inflation [1] Group 1 - The Turkish central bank governor highlighted the potential benefits of stable commodity prices on inflation management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Sumitomo Corporation indicated that the impact of U.S. tariffs may include economic slowdown, weakened demand, and a decline in commodity prices, including nickel [1] Group 1 - The potential economic slowdown is a significant concern for the industry as it may affect overall market dynamics [1] - Weakened demand could lead to reduced sales and profitability for companies reliant on commodity markets [1] - The decline in commodity prices, particularly nickel, could impact the financial performance of companies involved in mining and resource extraction [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon ferroalloy market is affected by multiple factors, with supply decreasing due to increased maintenance by manufacturers, while demand remains weak overall. The cost of electricity provides some support, and the market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to treat the silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract as a fluctuating market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro - aspect**: Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have received notices from major US retailers to resume shipments, with the new import tariff cost borne by US customers. The steel industry is facing a consensus on production cuts, and the coal industry is required to regulate import order. The World Bank predicts a decline in global commodity prices in 2025 and 2026 [6]. - **Supply and demand**: The ferroalloy production profit is negative, and the iron - water output continues to rise. The demand for steel is generally weak. The April HeSteel 75B silicon ferroalloy tender quantity decreased compared to the previous round [6]. - **Cost**: The prices of semi - coke and electricity are generally stable [6]. - **Technical analysis**: The weekly K - line of silicon ferroalloy 2506 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Treat the silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract as a fluctuating market [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures market**: The open interest decreased by 22,700 lots, and the monthly spread decreased by 26. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 3,267, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 80 yuan/ton [8][12][16]. - **Spot market**: The basis increased by 70 [19]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply**: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises decreased by 1.48% to 30.91%, and the daily average output decreased by 200 tons to 14,140 tons. The national silicon ferroalloy production (weekly supply) was 98,900 tons [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises decreased by 11.82% to 83,600 tons [30]. - **Upstream**: The electricity price in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained flat at 0.42 yuan/kWh, and the price of Shenmu semi - coke medium - sized material remained flat at 665 yuan/ton [36]. - **Production profit**: The spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5,620 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the cost increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [41]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 42,300 tons to 2,443,500 tons. The silicon ferroalloy export volume from January to February 2025 decreased by 26.65% compared to the same period last year [45].