Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the future adjustments of interest rates following two consecutive rate cuts, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others express concerns about rapid policy easing [2]. Group 1: Milan's Easing Stance and Rationale - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has repeatedly voiced concerns about the current monetary policy being too tight, opposing the decision to cut rates by only 25 basis points in September and October, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Milan believes that the current policy rate is significantly above the neutral level, which may excessively restrict economic activity [3]. - He expresses confidence in the decline of inflation, suggesting that there is no need to maintain high interest rates [4]. - Milan highlights signs of stress in the credit market, indicating that monetary policy may negatively impact the corporate financing environment [4]. - He warns that maintaining a restrictive policy for too long could increase the risk of an economic recession [4]. Group 2: Cautious Attitudes of Other Officials - In contrast to Milan's aggressive stance, several policymakers, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, adopt a more cautious approach, emphasizing concerns about inflation over labor market issues [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggests keeping an open mind regarding a rate cut in December, stressing the need to balance inflation control with employment support [5]. - This divergence reflects differences in interpreting economic data, with summer hiring slowdowns raising concerns about the labor market [5][6]. - There remains uncertainty about whether inflation will continue to decline [6]. Group 3: Policy Background and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in October, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's decision [7]. - Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, indicating that decisions will depend on subsequent economic data [7]. - Milan's transition from the White House to the Federal Reserve has led to discussions about potential political influences on his policy proposals, although he consistently argues from an economic fundamentals perspective, citing objective indicators like "credit market pressure" [7].

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, below the expected 3.1%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, also below the expected 0.4%, indicating lower-than-expected inflation and paving the way for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market investors are increasingly betting on two future rate cuts, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week and a 94.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [1] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $4,000, further declines are likely, with a key support level at $4,025 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices have been under pressure due to concerns over oversupply, but found support and rebounded around the $56 mark [3] - U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, aimed at limiting Russian oil exports, could lead to a short-term supply crunch, as these companies account for over 5% of global oil supply [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of approximately 2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, with simultaneous declines in distillate and gasoline inventories, providing support for oil prices [4] - Technical analysis suggests a strong bullish trend for oil, with potential upward movement towards $65, while key support is noted at $61.40 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices continued a volatile trend last week, with indications that the adjustment phase has ended, suggesting a high probability of upward movement this week towards the $5.33-$5.38 range [5] - A key support level for copper is identified at $5.11 [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index maintained a bullish trend last week, with a high probability of further increases, although signs of fatigue in the upward movement were noted [6] - A critical level to watch for the Nikkei 225 is the 49,350 mark, which serves as a dividing line for bullish and bearish sentiment [6]

Group 1 - The French stock market continues to strengthen, with the CAC40 index rising by 0.1% to 7835 points, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of gains [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, driven by recent U.S. inflation data meeting expectations and an increase in initial jobless claims to a nearly four-year high, reinforcing easing expectations [1] - The European Central Bank has indicated that the rate-cutting cycle may be coming to an end, with President Lagarde stating that the decline in inflation is largely complete and economic growth risks are becoming more balanced [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely watching for the announcement of France's sovereign credit rating by Fitch, which is expected to be released after today's market close [1] - Euronext has announced that TP (formerly Teleperformance) will be removed from the CAC40 index starting September 22 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate from 43% to 40.5%, a reduction of 250 basis points, despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, indicating ongoing concerns about domestic demand and inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Central Bank maintains a tight monetary policy stance until the price stability target is achieved [1] - The medium-term goal is to reduce the inflation rate to 5% within a foreseeable timeframe [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Turkey's inflation rate peaked at 85.5% in October 2022, prompting the Central Bank to restart the interest rate hike cycle in mid-2023 to combat high inflation [1] - As of August 2025, Turkey's inflation rate has decreased to 32.95%, showing signs of improvement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate from 43% to 40.5%, a reduction of 250 basis points, despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, indicating ongoing concerns about domestic demand and inflationary pressures [1] Economic Indicators - The current demand environment is aiding in the reduction of inflation, but rising food prices and price inertia in certain services continue to exert upward pressure on prices [1] - The Central Bank aims to maintain a tight monetary policy stance until the price stability target is achieved, with a medium-term goal of reducing the inflation rate to 5% [1] Historical Context - Turkey's inflation rate peaked at 85.5% in October 2022, prompting the Central Bank to restart the interest rate hike cycle in mid-2023 to combat high inflation [1] - As of August 2025, Turkey's inflation rate has shown signs of decline, falling to 32.95% according to the Turkish Statistical Institute [1]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut this year, following reductions of 225 and 100 basis points in April and May respectively [1][3] - The overnight deposit rate is now 22.00%, down from 24.00%, and the overnight lending rate is reduced to 23.00% from 25.00% [3] - The Central Bank attributes the rate cut to falling inflation and improving employment conditions, creating space for a gradual easing of monetary policy [1][3] Group 2 - The Egyptian economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [4] - Inflation has also decreased, with the Q2 inflation rate dropping to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, and negative monthly growth rates in July for both overall and core inflation [4] - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for inflation trends [3][4] Group 3 - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [7] - Exports have performed exceptionally well, with a 54.4% year-on-year increase in goods and services exports in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% growth in imports [7] - The garment export sector demonstrated strong resilience with a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, highlighting the sector's responsiveness to global demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, driven by declining inflation and improving employment conditions [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The overnight deposit rate has been reduced from 24.00% to 22.00%, and the overnight lending rate from 25.00% to 23.00% [2]. - The Central Bank aims to anchor inflation expectations and maintain a downward trajectory of inflation through this rate cut [2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating a positive trend in the job market [2]. - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, with a target of 7% by Q4 2026 and 5% by Q4 2028 [2][4]. Economic Performance - Egypt's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [3]. - Inflation has decreased from 16.5% in the previous quarter to 15.2% in Q2 2025, with negative monthly growth rates in July 2025 for both overall and core inflation [3]. - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [5]. - Exports of goods and services surged by 54.4% in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% increase in imports, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to real GDP growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The decision regarding the successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take several months, as stated by the Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump requires several months to decide on Powell's successor, whose term ends in May next year [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is conducting a comprehensive selection process and interviewing several outstanding candidates [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Hassett commented that Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was reliable [1] - Powell indicated that changes in the baseline outlook and risk landscape may necessitate adjustments to policy stance [1] - Hassett noted that the annualized inflation rate over the past six months was 1.9%, indicating a significant decline in inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, aligning with market expectations, indicating a cautious optimism regarding the economic outlook while balancing inflation control and economic growth [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The RBA's decision to cut interest rates is influenced by a decrease in the core inflation rate to 2.7%, suggesting a reduction in inflationary pressures and providing room for further easing measures [1][3]. - The RBA aims to guide the inflation rate towards the target midpoint of 2% to 3%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to current economic conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The RBA remains cautious about the domestic economy and inflation outlook, citing significant uncertainties in total demand and potential supply, as well as external risks in a complex global economic environment [3][4]. - The interest rate cut is expected to lower financing costs, stimulate business investment and consumer spending, thereby supporting economic recovery [3][4]. Group 3: Future Monitoring - Investors and market participants are advised to monitor upcoming inflation data and economic indicators to assess the actual impact of the rate cut and the RBA's future actions [3][4]. - The trajectory of future monetary policy will depend on whether core inflation continues to decline and if economic growth remains stable [3].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities economist Hannah Liu anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will unanimously agree to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, but is unlikely to provide dovish guidance [1] Economic Indicators - The second quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggests that the RBA's previous concerns about inflation may have been somewhat overstated [1] - The average unemployment rate for the second quarter was 4.2%, but it slightly increased to 4.3% in June [1] Economic Activity - Recent economic activity data has shown improvement, indicating that the current rationale for the RBA's interest rate cut is more about the policy space provided by falling inflation rather than a need for continuous rate cuts due to economic weakness [1]