通胀回落

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野村证券:澳洲联储料将降息25基点 但鸽派指引可能性低
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 23:57
新华财经北京8月12日电野村证券经济学家Hannah Liu表示,预计澳洲联储今日将一致同意降息25个基 点,但不太可能提供鸽派指引。澳洲联储可能会重申其"谨慎和渐进"的进一步宽松政策。 二季度CPI数据表明,澳洲联储此前对通胀的担忧略显过度。虽然二季度失业率均值为4.2%,但6月已 微升至4.3%。 (文章来源:新华财经) 近期经济活动数据表现向好,这提醒市场:对澳洲联储而言,当前降息逻辑更多是基于通胀回落提供的 政策空间,而非经济疲软需要连续降息。 ...
【财经分析】土耳其重启降息促循环 经济回稳仍存挑战
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 12:48
Group 1 - Turkey's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 43%, marking the first rate cut since the monetary easing cycle was interrupted in March due to financial and political turmoil [2][3] - The annual inflation rate in Turkey decreased to 35% in June, significantly lower than the peak of approximately 75% in May of the previous year, indicating initial success of tightening policies [3][4] - Moody's upgraded Turkey's sovereign credit rating from "B1" to "Ba3" with a stable outlook, citing improved policy continuity, credibility, and alleviation of external imbalances as key reasons for the upgrade [3] Group 2 - Despite the decline in inflation, analysts suggest that this is largely due to base effects rather than structural improvements, with expectations that inflation will remain high at the end of the year [4] - The market remains cautious regarding the consistency of policies and actual improvements in economic fundamentals, with the central bank emphasizing that future rate cuts will be carefully evaluated based on inflation outlook [5] - A recent survey of 34 economists predicts that the central bank's policy rate will further decrease to 41% by the end of September and to 36% by the end of the year, while the annual inflation rate is expected to be around 30% by year-end, exceeding the central bank's target [5]
八连降后收手!欧洲央行维持利率不变 静待美方关税政策明朗化
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-24 13:02
Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates unchanged for the first time in over a year, with the deposit facility rate at 2%, marginal lending rate at 2.4%, and main refinancing rate at 2.15%, aligning with market expectations and previous values [1] - The ECB has highlighted "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty, indicating an "exceptionally uncertain" environment due to the unclear outcome of tariffs in US-EU trade negotiations [2][3] - Current inflation has reached the ECB's mid-term target of 2%, marking a key milestone in the current policy cycle, while domestic price pressures are easing despite high wage growth [3] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting towards whether the ECB will continue to lower interest rates, with expectations of a further 22 basis points cut by the end of the year, following eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024 [4] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated readiness to address challenges beyond trade issues, including the strengthening euro and upcoming EU fiscal expansions in infrastructure and defense [4]
高盛:由于关税影响减弱和通胀回落,美联储可能会提前降息。
news flash· 2025-07-07 18:06
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Federal Reserve may consider an earlier interest rate cut due to the diminishing impact of tariffs and a decline in inflation [1] Group 1 - The reduction in tariffs has contributed to a more favorable economic environment, potentially influencing the Fed's decision-making process [1] - Inflation rates are showing signs of easing, which could further support the case for a rate cut [1] - The combination of these factors indicates a shift in monetary policy outlook, with implications for various sectors and investment strategies [1]
贵金属市场周报-20250627
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 09:28
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market covering the week up to June 27, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the precious metals market including gold and silver, focusing on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors [7] Group 2: Market Trends Gold - Gold prices initially rose due to increased safe - haven demand from Iran's attack on US military bases but later fell as the Iran - Israel cease - fire deal improved market risk appetite. Weak US economic data and mixed Fed officials' stances affected the market. Gold prices dropped significantly on Friday due to cooling risk - aversion [7] - COMEX gold was at $3304.6 per ounce on June 27, 2025, down 2.40% from the previous period; the Shanghai gold main contract 2508 was at 766.40 yuan per gram, down 1.88% [10] Silver - Silver prices showed resilience due to their industrial properties. COMEX silver was at $36.675 per ounce on June 27, 2025, up 1.83% from the previous period; the Shanghai silver main contract 2508 was at 8792 yuan per kilogram, up 0.61% [10] Group 3: Market Outlook - Weak US economic data and dovish signals from Fed officials boost the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is positive for the monetary attribute of gold. However, the upward movement of gold prices may face resistance as investors' interest in gold as a safe - haven tool weakens [7] - The cease - fire between Iran and Israel is fragile, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affects European energy security, providing some support for gold's safe - haven demand [7] - Fed's policy stance and inflation - employment data will determine the future trend of precious metals [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the short term, be aware of the risk of price corrections. For the Shanghai gold 2508 contract, the expected trading range is 750 - 780 yuan per gram; for the Shanghai silver 2508 contract, it is 8700 - 9000 yuan per kilogram. For COMEX gold futures, the range is $3260 - $3350 per ounce, and for COMEX silver futures, it is $36 - $37 per ounce [7] Group 5: Market Indicators ETFs - As of June 26, 2025, the net holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.64% to 953.39 tons, and the net holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 0.70% to 14866.19 tons [15] Futures Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 5.77% to 441214 contracts, and net positions increased by 7.02% to 200648 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 6.05% to 184831 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.79% to 67174 contracts [20] CFTC Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 5.90% to 260586 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 2.40% to 59938 contracts [25] Basis - As of June 26, 2025, the gold basis was - 7.28 yuan per gram, down 360.8% from the previous period; the silver basis was - 40 yuan per kilogram, down 133% [28] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.9% to 37048334.61 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 18168 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.20% to 498310493 troy ounces, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.70% to 1230233 kilograms [33] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver - In May 2025, China's silver imports decreased by 2.46% to 273741.39 kilograms, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% to 136237148.00 kilograms [39] - In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4240000.00 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 11.5% [44] - In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year). Total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [50] - By the end of 2024, total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% from the previous period [54] Gold - As of June 26, 2025, the recycling price of China Gold decreased by 1.12% to 768.8 yuan per gram. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou decreased by 1.18%, 2.16%, and 2.69% respectively [58] - In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand increased by 71.93% to 50741 ounces, gold jewelry demand decreased by 10.47% to 39899.9 ounces, and total gold demand increased by 7.12% to 120440.4 ounces [64] Group 7: Macroeconomic Factors - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year Treasury yield both declined [66] - The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [71] - The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate decreased this week [76] - In June 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons, and the Central Bank of Turkey increased its gold reserves by 2.12 tons [80]
ETO Markets 出入金:摩根士丹利押注美联储将在2026年大幅降息?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-25 09:59
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of seven interest rate cuts starting in March 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 2.5% to 2.75%, which is significantly lower than the current policy rate and earlier than most institutions expect [1][3]. Economic Growth and Inflation Trends - The prediction is based on the assessment of a downward trend in economic growth and a decline in inflation. Over the past two years, the Fed has maintained interest rates above 5% to combat persistent inflation, but with a cooling labor market and weakening core price increases, the monetary environment has tightened [3]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that by 2026, the U.S. economy will experience a cyclical slowdown, leading to a decrease in potential output growth and a structural slowdown in investment, necessitating a swift shift to accommodative monetary policy to prevent a hard landing [3]. Inflation Cycle and Monetary Policy - The end of the inflation cycle may arrive sooner than the market expects. Despite Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on a temporary rise in inflation during the summer, trends in rent, healthcare, and commodity prices indicate that most price structures are entering a downward trajectory [3]. - If energy prices remain stable and labor supply improves, inflation expectations may stabilize over the next two years, providing the Fed with ample room to implement easing measures [3]. Neutral Interest Rate and Policy Adjustment - Morgan Stanley's forecast of a final interest rate midpoint of 2.5%-2.75% suggests that the U.S. neutral interest rate has not been permanently elevated due to temporary factors such as the pandemic or geopolitical issues. If this assessment holds, the Fed will need to gradually "return to normal" in the coming years, aligning policy rates with inflation targets [3]. Uncertainties and Market Reactions - The proposed path is not without uncertainties, including high U.S. fiscal deficits, ongoing global supply chain restructuring, and potential geopolitical tensions. If inflation becomes sticky in services and wages, or if financial markets react excessively to premature easing, the Fed may have to delay its adjustment pace [4]. - Morgan Stanley's expectations represent a "baseline scenario" rather than a rigid policy blueprint, indicating a shift in market sentiment from "higher for longer" to "lower and faster," which will directly impact bond markets, the U.S. dollar, and growth assets, becoming a core variable in financial markets over the next two years [4].
英国央行副行长拉姆斯登:将劳动力市场放松视为“通胀回落”动力。
news flash· 2025-06-24 13:45
Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ramsden, views the relaxation of the labor market as a driving force for "inflation easing" [1]
欧洲央行副行长金多斯:油价波动不会影响通胀回落
news flash· 2025-06-24 12:53
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in commodity prices due to the conflict between Israel and Iran will not alter the inflation outlook for the Eurozone, according to the European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Guindos stated that while rising oil prices are a concern, they appear to be under control, and the process of inflation decline is firmly anchored [1] - The growth rate of consumer prices has decreased from record highs to slightly below the ECB's target of 2% [1] - Officials are satisfied with the current trajectory of consumer prices, indicating a potential continuation of achieving the inflation target in the coming months [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The situation in Iran adds complexity to an already tense global trade environment, which could impact economic stability [1] - Guindos emphasized the need for caution due to the high level of uncertainty surrounding these geopolitical issues [1]
英国央行货币政策委员格林:经济基本面疲软,劳动力市场进一步放松,通胀回落进程仍在持续。
news flash· 2025-06-24 09:42
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, indicates that the economic fundamentals are weak, the labor market is loosening further, and the process of inflation decline is ongoing [1] Economic Fundamentals - Economic fundamentals are described as weak, suggesting potential challenges for growth and investment opportunities in the near term [1] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing further loosening, which may impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Inflation Trends - The process of inflation decline is still in progress, indicating that inflationary pressures may be easing, which could influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]
土耳其央行:通胀预期和定价行为持续对通胀回落进程构成风险。
news flash· 2025-06-19 11:06
Core Viewpoint - The Turkish Central Bank indicates that inflation expectations and pricing behaviors continue to pose risks to the process of inflation decline [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank highlights that persistent inflation expectations are a significant concern for achieving lower inflation rates [1] - Pricing behaviors in the market are also identified as a factor that could hinder the progress of inflation reduction [1]