当伊朗议长卡利巴夫将美国中东军事基地列为合法打击目标时，全球的石油市场仿佛被一声惊雷震撼。 1月11日，这一硬核的警告掀起了国际市场的波澜，而背后隐藏的战略杀招，却足以撼动全球能源体系 ——霍尔木兹海峡的封锁。这个海上咽喉最窄处仅33公里，每天承载着全球三分之一的原油运输量。若 这条生命线中断，每日约1800万桶的石油流动将遭遇致命打击，带来的影响将远超1973年石油危机的冲 击。 回望历史，1973年阿拉伯石油禁运引发了全球油价暴涨300%，美国GDP因此下滑4.7%。而如今，伊朗 手中握有更加致命的武器：不仅拥有数千枚精准反舰导弹，更能通过操控也门胡塞武装，直接袭击沙特 的石油设施。2019年，胡塞武装的无人机攻击就曾让全球5%的石油供应中断，造成了严重的市场波 动。如果美伊爆发冲突，这种不对称的打击将成为常态。作为全球最大的原油进口国，中国的战略石油 储备面临着严峻考验。按照国际能源署的标准，成员国需储备90天的净进口量，尽管我国官方未公布具 体数据，但业内估算我国的储备大约能支撑80天。一旦霍尔木兹海峡被封锁两个月，长三角、珠三角的 石化产业链将面临断供的风险。而更为严峻的是，伊朗可能借机重启灰色市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, coupled with U.S. involvement, has led to increased tensions, particularly regarding the potential closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global energy markets. Group 1: Oil Supply Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for 30% of global seaborne oil trade and about 20% of global oil liquid consumption. A closure could result in a supply reduction of over 18 million barrels per day, nearly a 20% drop in global supply, potentially driving oil prices to $100 per barrel [3][4][6]. Group 2: LNG Trade Disruption - The Strait is also vital for liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, with around 95% of LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE relying on this route. A closure could lead to a 20% decrease in global LNG supply, significantly impacting energy markets in Europe and Asia, particularly raising prices in these regions [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Closing the Strait would likely trigger a global energy crisis, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The economies of the U.S. and Europe heavily depend on Middle Eastern oil imports, and a blockage could lead to soaring energy prices and inflation, threatening economic stability, especially in Europe, which is already facing energy supply challenges due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][6]. Group 4: Limitations of Alternative Routes - While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some pipelines that bypass the Strait, their combined nominal capacity is only 6.7 million barrels per day, with 4.3 million barrels per day currently idle. This is insufficient to meet the daily demand of 17 million barrels, indicating that alternative routes cannot adequately mitigate the impact of a closure [6][7]. Group 5: Military and Energy Security Risks - Iran's threat to close the Strait could provoke military conflict with the U.S., which has deployed significant military resources in the region to ensure the passage remains open. Iran's growing military capabilities pose a risk of interference in the Strait, potentially escalating international tensions and complicating regional security [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. has completed attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - Iran retaliated with missile strikes against Israel, using 40 missiles, including the "Castle Destroyer" multi-warhead ballistic missile [1] - The Houthis in Yemen announced they would resume attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea due to U.S. actions [1] Group 2 - The U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is driven by multiple considerations, including satisfying Israel's goals, forcing Iran to submit, and demonstrating U.S. global dominance [2] - If Iran does not submit, the conflict may escalate into a larger military confrontation, with Iran targeting U.S. personnel and facilities in the region [2] - Should Iran's regime capitulate, it could lead to regime change, a ceasefire, and a restructuring of Middle Eastern security dynamics [2] Group 3 - The U.S. shifted to military action against Iran due to ineffective pressure tactics and the need to address domestic political issues [3] - This military action risks damaging U.S. international credibility and could lead to increased threats to U.S. military bases and interests abroad [3] - The attack may cause a spike in international energy prices, impacting U.S. economic growth and exacerbating domestic political divisions [3] Group 4 - Iran's response to the U.S. attack is expected to result in long-term military confrontations and a potential increase in its nuclear capabilities [4] - The instability in global energy supply chains is anticipated, particularly concerning the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [5][6] - Closing the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global energy crisis, significantly affecting oil prices and international economic stability [6]

Core Points - Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on Iran's capital Tehran and Natanz nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, resulting in significant military and civilian casualties, which has escalated regional tensions [1] - Japan and several Asian countries condemned Israel's actions, with Japan emphasizing the importance of Middle East stability for its economy due to its heavy reliance on oil imports [3] - The international community expressed concerns over the potential for a global energy crisis and geopolitical reconfiguration due to the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict [4] Group 1: Regional Reactions - Japan's government held an emergency press conference, stressing the need to protect its citizens in Iran and prevent further escalation through diplomatic means [3] - Malaysia and Indonesia also condemned Israel's military actions, highlighting a collective regional stance against unilateral military interventions [3] - The reactions from Asian countries reflect their awareness of the vulnerabilities associated with energy dependence amid regional conflicts [5] Group 2: International Responses - Global leaders, including the UK Prime Minister and the UN Secretary-General, called for restraint and a return to diplomatic solutions [4] - China's Foreign Ministry characterized Israel's actions as violations of Iran's sovereignty, indicating a willingness to mediate [4] - The military confrontation has led to a significant increase in Brent crude oil futures, rising by 8.7%, the largest increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2023 [4] Group 3: Economic Implications - If the Israel-Iran conflict persists beyond two weeks, oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel, potentially triggering global inflation and economic recession risks [4] - Japan's Minister of Economy acknowledged the need for heightened vigilance regarding energy supply chains due to the conflict [4] - The situation underscores the urgent need for multilateral mechanisms to manage crises and maintain energy security [5]