Group 1 - The article predicts a significant reduction in domestic fuel prices, with gasoline expected to decrease by 0.3 to 0.4 yuan per liter in the upcoming adjustment, marking the 19th round of price changes this year [1] - Despite the anticipated price drop, international crude oil prices have remained stable, with WTI at $62.69 per barrel and Brent crude slightly rising to $66.99, indicating a disconnect between domestic expectations and international market trends [2] - The fluctuations in oil prices are influenced by complex geopolitical dynamics and economic strategies, rather than mere market supply and demand [2][7] Group 2 - President Trump's potential imposition of up to 100% tariffs on imports from countries like India could disrupt global oil markets, as India and Russia are significant consumers of crude oil [3] - The aggressive tariff strategy may exacerbate global inflationary pressures, complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve, which is expected to consider interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [5][6] - The long-term trends in oil prices are primarily driven by policy directions and geopolitical landscapes, rather than short-term market fluctuations [7] Group 3 - The upcoming price adjustment window on September 23 is anticipated to result in a downward trend in fuel prices, with expectations for a more substantial reduction than previously indicated [9] - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of global events, such as U.S. monetary policy decisions and geopolitical conflicts, in influencing local fuel prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, coupled with U.S. involvement, has led to increased tensions, particularly regarding the potential closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global energy markets. Group 1: Oil Supply Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for 30% of global seaborne oil trade and about 20% of global oil liquid consumption. A closure could result in a supply reduction of over 18 million barrels per day, nearly a 20% drop in global supply, potentially driving oil prices to $100 per barrel [3][4][6]. Group 2: LNG Trade Disruption - The Strait is also vital for liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, with around 95% of LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE relying on this route. A closure could lead to a 20% decrease in global LNG supply, significantly impacting energy markets in Europe and Asia, particularly raising prices in these regions [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Closing the Strait would likely trigger a global energy crisis, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The economies of the U.S. and Europe heavily depend on Middle Eastern oil imports, and a blockage could lead to soaring energy prices and inflation, threatening economic stability, especially in Europe, which is already facing energy supply challenges due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][6]. Group 4: Limitations of Alternative Routes - While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some pipelines that bypass the Strait, their combined nominal capacity is only 6.7 million barrels per day, with 4.3 million barrels per day currently idle. This is insufficient to meet the daily demand of 17 million barrels, indicating that alternative routes cannot adequately mitigate the impact of a closure [6][7]. Group 5: Military and Energy Security Risks - Iran's threat to close the Strait could provoke military conflict with the U.S., which has deployed significant military resources in the region to ensure the passage remains open. Iran's growing military capabilities pose a risk of interference in the Strait, potentially escalating international tensions and complicating regional security [7].