4日，日韩股市低开低走，韩国综合指数盘中触发熔断机制。截至收盘，日经225指数跌3.61%，报54245.54点，韩国综合指数跌12.11%，报 5090.79点。 01 日韩资产遭恐慌性抛售 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫指出，霍尔木兹海峡通道受阻，意味着全球能源供应链面临断裂风险，对于极度依赖能源进口的日韩两国而言，直接触发 了资本市场的恐慌性抛售。 消息面上，据新华社4日援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社的报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军副司令穆罕默德.阿克巴尔扎德表示，霍尔木兹海峡已完全处于伊朗 海军的控制之下，十多艘油轮在该海峡被炮弹击中。阿克巴尔扎德说，革命卫队海军多次警告霍尔木兹海峡处于战争状态，任何船只都可能被炮弹或 无人机击中。但仍有十多艘油轮无视警告，已被炮弹击中并烧毁。阿克巴尔扎德强调，在伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡禁止航行后，油轮、商船和渔船已无 法通过该海峡。 日经225指数昨日(3月3日)跌超3%。对此，日经中文网发文称，霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，引发市场对能源供应的担忧，卖盘大量涌出。美国总统特朗普 暗示将扩大对伊朗的军事行动，市场普遍认为地区冲突将长期化。卡塔尔液化天然气(LNG)相关企业因遭受伊朗无人机袭击而停产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "third mission" of pursuing moderate long-term interest rates has gained attention, especially in light of political pressures and the recent interest rate decision [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1]. - New board member Stephen Milan opposed the 25 basis point cut, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction, highlighting political influence on monetary policy [2][3]. - The overwhelming 11 to 1 vote in favor of the rate cut indicates a strong internal consensus within the Federal Reserve despite external pressures [2]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%, while maintaining its predictions for unemployment and inflation for 2024 [5]. - For 2026, the Fed projects a combination of higher growth, lower unemployment, and higher inflation, with the terminal rate lowered to 3.4% from 3.6% [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic environment suggests that a moderate reduction in the federal funds rate could stabilize inflation around 3% to 4%, potentially improving the labor market [6]. - The anticipated continuation of rate cuts may accelerate the repricing of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals [6]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts reflects a balance between addressing labor market signals and managing inflation risks [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.0%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months, indicating a cautious and dovish stance in its monetary policy [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1]. - Analysts noted that the Fed's independence will be crucial for future rate decisions, making the path forward more ambiguous [1][2]. Economic Indicators and Future Projections - Current economic data suggests a relative easing of inflation risks, with a shift in focus towards the labor market [2]. - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts in 2025, but there is significant disagreement among Fed officials regarding the future rate path [2][3]. Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts appear overly optimistic, with various asset classes pricing in different probabilities for future cuts [5]. - The implied probability for a rate cut in October remains around 80%, with expectations for a total of approximately 1.8 cuts remaining for the year [4][5]. Global Asset Repricing - Continued rate cuts by the Fed may accelerate global asset repricing, benefiting physical assets and precious metals while potentially weakening the dollar [6]. - The market is advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data, as well as sensitive growth indicators like real estate sales and manufacturing PMI [6]. Fed's Independence and Political Pressure - The independence of the Federal Reserve is highlighted as a cornerstone of U.S. asset credibility, with potential political pressures from the Trump administration posing risks to this independence [7]. - A loss of independence could lead to uncontrolled inflation, adversely affecting stock, bond, and currency markets [7].