Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is increasingly leaning towards interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in September approaching 100% probability [1][2][3] - Recent economic data, particularly the weak non-farm payrolls report for July, has weakened the narrative of a robust economy, prompting a shift in the Fed's stance [2][3] - The internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have become more apparent, with two dissenting votes in the July meeting marking a significant shift in the committee's dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. economy's underlying strength are growing, with signs of a weakening labor market and slowing consumer spending, particularly in the manufacturing and service sectors [3][4] - The upcoming inflation and employment data releases will be critical for the Fed's decision-making process regarding potential rate cuts [4][8] - Market sentiment is heavily leaning towards the expectation of rate cuts, with discussions even considering the possibility of a 50 basis point reduction [4][9] Group 3 - The stock market has reacted positively to the Fed's dovish signals, with major indices rebounding over 1% [5] - However, there are concerns that the stock market may be entering a bubble territory, with warnings about potential overvaluation and cautious behavior from corporate executives [6][7] - The risk of a recession looms, as indicators suggest a weakening economy, which could negatively impact the stock market despite the favorable conditions created by potential rate cuts [7][10] Group 4 - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment is becoming increasingly challenging, as inflation pressures and labor market weaknesses coexist [8][9] - The Fed's current approach is to prioritize avoiding significant policy missteps over precise timing of actions, indicating a cautious and reactive stance [11]

惠灵顿管理公司的固定收益投资组合经理Brij Khurana表示，美联储计划每5年更新一次声明，说明它将 如何实现就业最大化与物价稳定的双重使命。美联储上一次发表这一声明是在2020年新冠大流行期间， 当时它采用了一个框架，重点关注2%长期平均通胀率。在今年晚些时候，美联储发布下一份声明时， 它应该彻底重新考虑双重使命，并重新调整货币政策，使其朝着将生产率最大化的方向发展。自2008年 以来，美国生产率年增长率已放缓至1.6%，低于此前18年的2.4%。把重点放在重新加速生产率上，将 使美联 储能够实现双重使命目标，而不会产生它所造成的意外负面后果，包括收入不平等加剧和债务 水平上升——这两者都会降低生产率。这种发展轨迹需要对双重使命进行修订。 ...

美联储继续按兵不动 当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会负责制定隔夜拆借利率的公开市场委员会（FMOC）结束议息会议，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变。 美联储议息会议通常每年安排八次，今年议息会议时间分别为1月、3月、5月、6月、7月、9月、11月和12月。自去年9月起美联储连续三次降息，合计降 幅达到100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上台以来，美联储连续五次维持利率不变。 这可把特朗普气坏了。他在第一任期期间任命鲍威尔担任美联储主席，没有想到鲍威尔如此桀骜不驯，完全不配合他的政治意图。7月18日，他在社交媒 体上说，鲍威尔是他任命过的最糟糕的官员之一。前一天在会见巴林王储讨论中东和平时，特朗普忽然骂起了鲍威尔，照例骂得很难听，有脱口秀主持人 开玩笑说："不了解的人还以为鲍威尔被拍到抱着特朗普的老婆听音乐会。"特朗普还对一脸懵圈的巴林王储说："我很惊讶，这样一个人竟然会被任命为 美联储主席，是拜登任命的。" 去年特朗普竞选总统时就对鲍威尔深表不满，他认为鲍威尔不懂金融，鲍威尔制定货币政策时应该听他的。就任总统后，特朗普就一直喊话鲍威尔降息， 然而鲍威尔充耳不闻，连续五次按兵不动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve appears to be in a solid position regarding its dual mandate ahead of the tariff measures set for April 2 [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's stance on its dual mandate is perceived as stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee does not believe that a 1970s-style stagflation will impact the U.S. economy, but acknowledges that the Fed's dual mandate still faces certain risks [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee expresses confidence that the current economic conditions do not resemble the stagflation of the 1970s [1] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate, which includes maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, is under scrutiny due to potential risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials are not eager to lower the benchmark interest rate due to concerns over the prolonged impact of tariffs on consumer prices and employment growth, which could hinder the Fed's dual mandate of controlling inflation and maintaining high employment levels [1][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economists predict that the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, effective from April, will lead to higher consumer prices and potentially hinder job growth, complicating the Fed's ability to manage inflation and employment [1][3]. - The FedWatch tool indicates a 51% probability that the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate in July, with markets pricing in three potential rate cuts of 25 basis points this year [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - St. Louis Fed President Bullard emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs' impact on inflation, suggesting that the Fed should not commit to further rate cuts until the effects are clearer [3][6]. - New York Fed President Williams highlighted the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations to ensure public confidence in the Fed's ability to return inflation to the 2% target [3][4]. Group 3: Trade Policy Implications - Fed Governor Cook warned that the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies could suppress U.S. productivity and necessitate higher interest rates to combat inflation stemming from inefficiencies [5][6]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester noted that the Fed requires more time to observe the economic response to tariffs before determining appropriate policy measures, acknowledging the current resilience of the U.S. economy [6][7]. Group 4: Employment and Economic Growth - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, Fed officials recognize risks to the labor market as businesses assess the implications of new tariffs [6][7]. - Fed officials agree that the current economic conditions warrant maintaining the policy interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% until the effects of government policy decisions are clearer [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices is equally important, according to Williams [1] Group 1 - Williams emphasized that both aspects of the Federal Reserve's mission are critical for the overall health of the economy [1]

Group 1: UK Monetary Policy - Schroders' economist George Brown indicates that the Bank of England has less room to cut interest rates than the market expects, citing significant capacity constraints and potential inflation rise later this year, with rates likely to drop to around 4% [1] - Deutsche Bank's analyst Christopher Bartz suggests a gradual rate cut approach by the Bank of England, with a 25 basis point reduction each quarter rather than at every meeting, in response to trade uncertainties [1] Group 2: US Monetary Policy - French Foreign Trade Bank expects the Federal Reserve to restart its rate cut cycle in September, potentially lowering rates multiple times until a terminal rate of 3% is reached, with a mild rise in unemployment anticipated [2] - Seema Shah from Sian Asset Management notes the Federal Reserve's dual mandate may conflict, and while rate cuts are necessary, action is unlikely until late Q3 [2] Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - Investors face uncertainty due to the impact of tariffs on the economy, with Clear Bridge's Josh Jamner stating that the Federal Reserve cannot provide certainty, and action is not expected until September unless conditions worsen significantly [3] - Swedish Commercial Bank's Magnus Lindskog predicts three rate cuts this year due to a weakening economy and downward pressure on inflation from increased tariffs, despite current inflation being above target [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is in a precarious situation where its dual mandate of full employment and price stability may conflict with each other [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Challenges - Principal Asset Management's Chief Global Strategist Seema Shah indicates that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. government policies will significantly influence the timing and magnitude of changes in the economy [1] - The strong stance taken by Trump on tariffs has exacerbated the Federal Reserve's difficult position, leaving it with limited options [1] - There is a necessity for interest rate cuts, but the Federal Reserve may need to wait until the end of the third quarter for an opportunity to act [1]