展望美国未来，结束政府关门、化解关税不确定将是关键。 11月8日，美国联邦政府关门已进入第39天，成为历史上最长的政府停摆事件之一。这场关门缘于国会 未能通过2026财年的支出法案，导致联邦机构包括劳工统计局（BLS）等关键部门被迫暂停部分运作。 原本计划于11月7日发布的10月官方就业报告因而延期，这不仅中断了关键经济数据链条，也加剧了市 场对劳动力市场健康的担忧。 在缺乏官方数据的情况下，私人部门报告成为评估美国经济脉搏的主要工具。然而，这些私人报告所揭 示的是一个颇为矛盾的图景：一方面，劳动力市场显示出疲软迹象，裁员激增；另一方面，私人就业数 据意外反弹。这种混合信号并未显著改变市场对美联储12月会议的预期。根据芝加哥商品交易所 （CME）FedWatch工具，截至11月6日，美联储在12月10日会议上降息25个基点的概率约为58.3%，较 一周前的63.8%略有下滑，反映出投资者对政策路径的不确定。 值此，美联储的双重使命——实现最大就业和价格稳定——正面临严峻考验。当前联邦基金利率目标区 间为3.75%~4.00%，9月和10月美联储已连续两次降息25个基点，以应对劳动力市场放缓。但通胀率仍 徘徊在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "third mission" of pursuing moderate long-term interest rates has gained attention, especially in light of political pressures and the recent interest rate decision [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1]. - New board member Stephen Milan opposed the 25 basis point cut, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction, highlighting political influence on monetary policy [2][3]. - The overwhelming 11 to 1 vote in favor of the rate cut indicates a strong internal consensus within the Federal Reserve despite external pressures [2]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%, while maintaining its predictions for unemployment and inflation for 2024 [5]. - For 2026, the Fed projects a combination of higher growth, lower unemployment, and higher inflation, with the terminal rate lowered to 3.4% from 3.6% [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic environment suggests that a moderate reduction in the federal funds rate could stabilize inflation around 3% to 4%, potentially improving the labor market [6]. - The anticipated continuation of rate cuts may accelerate the repricing of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals [6]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts reflects a balance between addressing labor market signals and managing inflation risks [9].

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1][2] - The FOMC's dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, totaling 50 basis points, which is one more than previously forecasted in June [2][6] - The market reacted sharply to the announcement, with mixed results in major U.S. stock indices [2] Economic Outlook - The FOMC noted a slowdown in economic activity and employment growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [1][4] - The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-over-year, with core PCE up 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5] - The FOMC emphasized its commitment to achieving "maximum employment" and a 2% inflation target, acknowledging increased risks to employment [4][5] Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index experienced significant volatility, initially dropping to a new low since 2025 before rebounding [3][9] - Investors are increasingly looking to hedge against a weakening dollar, with a survey indicating 38% of fund managers seeking to increase hedging positions [9][10] - The Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar, reaching a near 10.5-month high, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed [10] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The FOMC's decision was passed with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, with the dissenting vote coming from newly appointed member Stephen Milan, who favored a larger cut [6][7] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised due to political pressures, particularly from President Trump [6][7] - The FOMC's economic projections show an increase in GDP growth expectations and a decrease in unemployment rate forecasts for the coming years [8]

当前，美联储即将于9月17日召开利率决策会议，而米兰的任命恰逢特朗普试图在美联储内部安插"影子 主席"之际，其角色被定位为在董事会中发挥监督作用。特朗普此前已明确表示，库格勒席位的提名人 将作为鲍威尔的临时替代者存在。 智通财经APP获悉，斯蒂芬·米兰作为唐纳德·特朗普总统提名的美联储理事候选人，在提前提交给参议 院银行委员会的开场发言中明确表示，将全力维护美联储的独立性及其"价格稳定与最大就业"的双重使 命。他强调："在我看来，央行核心职责是防范经济萧条与恶性通货膨胀，而货币政策的独立性正是其 成功的关键要素。" 参议院银行委员会将于周四上午就此提名召开听证会。米兰此番提名旨在填补美联储理事阿德里安娜· 库格勒因意外空缺留下的剩余任期——该任期将于2026年1月31日届满。若获通过，他将直接完成库格 勒的剩余任期，而非成为永久理事。 在政策立场方面，特朗普长期推动大幅降低借贷成本，而米兰过去曾对美联储在新冠疫情期间的激进刺 激措施提出批评。面对提名，他承诺："若获确认，我将严格依据国会授权履行职责，所有意见与决策 都将建立在宏观经济分析基础上，并以长期管理最优化为准则。"同时，他强调联邦公开市场委员会作 为 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 不过，米兰也对美联储在"双重使命"之外的活动（包括央行资产负债表）的监管问题提出疑问。他在声 明中表示："美联储监管着全球最重要的金融机构，为借贷双方（包括其他央行）设定不同的资金价 格，而美联储资产负债表的最终构成仍是一个悬而未决的问题。" 此番表态正值美联储处境微妙之际：因今年至今未按特朗普期望大幅降息，美联储正承受来自总统的巨 大压力。特朗普已以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为由，试图解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook），引发关于 她能否留任的激烈法律争端。库克否认相关指控，并起诉总统，称解雇行为非法。 若获参议院批准，米兰将填补上月阿德里亚娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）辞职后突然空缺的职位。库格 勒的任期原定于明年1月结束，这意味着米兰在美联储的任职时间可能仅数月便需离任。特朗普政府正 推动他在9月16日至17日美联储下次利率会议前就职。 外界猜测特朗普可能试图任命的是一位"影子主席"，其主要职责是在理事会中充当"搅局者"。特朗普此 前表示，库格勒空缺职位的候选人仅为临时任职，而非长期替代美联储主席鲍威尔。 作为理事，米兰将拥有利率投票 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve faces a "tension" between its inflation and labor market goals, highlighting a significant dilemma in current monetary policy [1][4][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes promoting price stability, typically aiming for a 2% inflation rate [2] - The second goal is to achieve maximum employment, seeking the lowest possible unemployment rate [3] Group 2: Current Economic Environment - The current economic environment has created a "tension" where measures to combat high inflation may adversely affect the strong labor market [4] - Despite a recent decline in inflation, it remains stubbornly high, complicating the Fed's efforts to reach its 2% target [4] - The labor market remains robust, with low unemployment and high wage growth, which can contribute to upward pressure on prices [4] Group 3: Policy Dilemma - The Fed faces a policy paradox: tightening financial conditions to control inflation could lead to increased unemployment and potential recession [5] - Conversely, prematurely easing monetary policy to protect the labor market could reignite inflation, necessitating more aggressive future adjustments [5] Group 4: Market Implications - The Fed's dilemma suggests high volatility in market reactions to economic data, particularly inflation and employment reports [8] - A scenario of prolonged high interest rates is becoming the baseline assumption, with expectations for rate cuts being continually pushed back [9] - Increased uncertainty surrounds the Fed's decision-making path, making any single directional bet risky for investors [10] Group 5: Conclusion - The "tension" articulated by the Fed is not indicative of policy failure but rather a candid acknowledgment of the challenges faced in a complex economic landscape [11] - Understanding this dilemma is crucial for investors in interpreting the Fed's future actions and managing investment risks [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is increasingly leaning towards interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in September approaching 100% probability [1][2][3] - Recent economic data, particularly the weak non-farm payrolls report for July, has weakened the narrative of a robust economy, prompting a shift in the Fed's stance [2][3] - The internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have become more apparent, with two dissenting votes in the July meeting marking a significant shift in the committee's dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. economy's underlying strength are growing, with signs of a weakening labor market and slowing consumer spending, particularly in the manufacturing and service sectors [3][4] - The upcoming inflation and employment data releases will be critical for the Fed's decision-making process regarding potential rate cuts [4][8] - Market sentiment is heavily leaning towards the expectation of rate cuts, with discussions even considering the possibility of a 50 basis point reduction [4][9] Group 3 - The stock market has reacted positively to the Fed's dovish signals, with major indices rebounding over 1% [5] - However, there are concerns that the stock market may be entering a bubble territory, with warnings about potential overvaluation and cautious behavior from corporate executives [6][7] - The risk of a recession looms, as indicators suggest a weakening economy, which could negatively impact the stock market despite the favorable conditions created by potential rate cuts [7][10] Group 4 - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment is becoming increasingly challenging, as inflation pressures and labor market weaknesses coexist [8][9] - The Fed's current approach is to prioritize avoiding significant policy missteps over precise timing of actions, indicating a cautious and reactive stance [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve plans to update its statement every five years regarding its dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, with a significant revision expected later this year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The last statement was issued during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, focusing on a long-term average inflation rate of 2% [1] - The upcoming statement should reconsider the dual mandate and adjust monetary policy to prioritize maximizing productivity [1] Group 2: Productivity Concerns - Since 2008, the annual growth rate of U.S. productivity has slowed to 1.6%, down from 2.4% over the previous 18 years [1] - Focusing on accelerating productivity could help the Federal Reserve achieve its dual mandate without unintended negative consequences, such as increased income inequality and rising debt levels [1]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its recent meeting, marking a continuation of its current monetary policy stance [2][12] - President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, criticizing him for not aligning with his political objectives and calling for interest rate cuts [4][5] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is highlighted, as Trump has attempted to exert pressure on Powell but has been advised against taking drastic actions that could undermine market confidence [4][9] Interest Rates - Interest rates are crucial in the financial and economic system, influencing asset valuations and investment decisions [9] - Trump argues that lowering interest rates could significantly reduce government debt interest payments, but this approach is likened to administering excessive medication that could destabilize the economy [9][12] - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged reflects a cautious approach to balancing employment and inflation, with recent economic indicators showing a slowdown in growth but stable employment levels [14][15] Federal Reserve's Independence - The legal framework allows the President to appoint the Fed Chair but does not grant the power to dismiss them, emphasizing the Fed's independence [4][12] - Trump's visit to the Fed headquarters and his public criticisms of Powell are seen as attempts to increase pressure on the Fed, which traditionally operates independently to maintain market confidence [7][12] - The Fed's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices is often at odds, complicating its policy decisions [12][13] Decision-Making Dynamics - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-2 vote to maintain rates, indicating differing opinions among board members regarding the economic outlook and the need for rate cuts [14][15] - The dissenting votes reflect a division in the assessment of economic conditions, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts to support employment [15] - The ongoing tension between presidential influence and the Fed's commitment to its long-term goals underscores the challenges faced by the central bank in navigating political pressures [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve appears to be in a solid position regarding its dual mandate ahead of the tariff measures set for April 2 [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's stance on its dual mandate is perceived as stable [1]