展望2026年，巴尔金表达了审慎乐观态度。他认为，去年困扰市场的多重不确定性有望逐步消退，从而 提振消费者和企业信心。此外，他提及税收改革、监管放松以及潜在的降息政策，均可能在今年对经济 增长形成支撑。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京1月6日电美联储里士满联储主席托马斯·巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）表示，面对通胀与就业 双重目标所面临的不确定性，未来货币政策路径必须采取"精细调整"策略。他强调，当前政策利率已处 于中性区间，但决策仍需高度依赖后续经济数据，不预设方向。 巴尔金指出，尽管美国通胀率已从前期高点显著回落，但仍高于美联储2%的长期目标；与此同时，失 业率维持在低位，但政策制定者不希望劳动力市场状况进一步恶化。他重申美联储双重使命的两面性， 并提醒需"关注熊市"风险，即在抑制通胀的同时避免引发深度经济收缩。 在评估2025年经济表现时，巴尔金肯定了整体韧性，但也指出结构性隐忧：需求与就业增长过度集中于 少数行业，且市场情绪已出现明显下滑。这一不平衡可能削弱复苏的广度与可持续性。 ...

Group 1 - The market widely expects Kevin Hassett to be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, but only 11% believe he should be appointed [1] - Christopher Waller is the preferred candidate with 47% support, followed by Kevin Warsh at 23%, yet only 5% think Trump will nominate either [1] - Concerns about Hassett focus on his commitment to the Fed's dual mandate and independence, with 76% believing the next chair will be more dovish than Jerome Powell [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divide on whether the Fed should cut rates, with 87% expecting a rate cut but only 45% believing it should happen [3] - Economic growth expectations are rising, with GDP growth projected at 2% this year and slightly higher next year, while inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target [5] - "Persistent high inflation" has become the top economic risk, with concerns about the potential stimulus effects of record tax refunds in 2026 [6] Group 3 - Despite concerns about a potential AI bubble, respondents predict a 6% increase in the S&P 500 next year and another 6% in 2027, with 90% believing AI stocks are overvalued [8] - Systemic risk in the U.S. credit market is perceived to have slightly increased, rising from 53% to 60% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate-cutting phase next year, with debates surrounding the pace and magnitude of these cuts [1][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is around 90% [1]. - The market is closely watching Chairman Powell's language during the press conference to gauge future monetary policy direction [1]. - The Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability complicates its policy decisions, especially given the current economic uncertainties [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Growth and High Interest Rates - The U.S. economy has shown relatively high growth, with a GDP growth rate of 2.8% last year, but is expected to slow down this year [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a 2% growth rate for the U.S. economy in 2025, primarily due to the effects of sustained high interest rates [4]. - High interest rates are increasingly suppressing economic activity, with the 30-year mortgage rate remaining above 6% [4]. Group 3: Inflation and Employment Data - Current inflation, as indicated by the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), is approximately 3%, which is above the Fed's 2% target [6]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, with signs of weakening in economic data, including a contraction in the manufacturing PMI for nine consecutive months [6]. - The Fed's decision-making is hampered by the absence of key economic data, making it challenging to determine whether to cut rates [5][6]. Group 4: Future Leadership and Policy Direction - The Fed is currently divided under Chairman Powell, contrasting with the more unified decision-making seen under former Chairman Greenspan [7]. - If Hassett, a potential successor to Powell, takes over, he may push for a more aggressive rate-cutting approach, potentially reducing rates by about 100 basis points throughout the year [8]. - The future policy direction will depend on economic trends and data, with the possibility of 1-2 rate cuts expected in the first half of next year [7][8].

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 39 days, marking one of the longest shutdowns in history, due to Congress's failure to pass the fiscal year 2026 spending bill [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that such shutdowns could lead to a GDP loss of 0.1% to 0.5% annually, amplifying economic uncertainty [3] - Approximately 800,000 federal employees have been forced to take unpaid leave or work without pay, affecting key departments like the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security [3] Labor Market Dynamics - The Challenger report indicates a significant surge in layoffs, with 153,074 job cuts announced in October, a 183% increase from September and the highest monthly figure since October 2003 [5][6] - The ADP report shows a surprising rebound in private sector employment, with a net increase of 42,000 jobs in October, reversing previous losses [7][8] - The labor market is exhibiting a "two-speed" dynamic, with blue-collar sectors holding up while white-collar jobs, particularly in technology and services, face pressure [8] Federal Reserve's Policy Challenges - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximizing employment and price stability is under severe strain, with current inflation around 3.0%, significantly above the 2% target [2][9] - The ongoing government shutdown complicates data collection, leading to a "data black hole" that increases policy-making difficulties for the Fed [4][10] - Internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some members prioritizing employment while others focus on inflation risks, reflecting a classic policy dilemma [10][13] Market Expectations and Future Outlook - As of November 6, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting is approximately 58.3%, down from 63.8% a week prior, indicating market uncertainty [12] - The potential for a prolonged government shutdown could lead to a significant drop in consumer spending, further impacting employment [12][13] - The Fed may need to adopt a cautious approach in its December meeting, balancing the risks of rising inflation against the need to support employment [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "third mission" of pursuing moderate long-term interest rates has gained attention, especially in light of political pressures and the recent interest rate decision [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1]. - New board member Stephen Milan opposed the 25 basis point cut, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction, highlighting political influence on monetary policy [2][3]. - The overwhelming 11 to 1 vote in favor of the rate cut indicates a strong internal consensus within the Federal Reserve despite external pressures [2]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The Federal Reserve slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%, while maintaining its predictions for unemployment and inflation for 2024 [5]. - For 2026, the Fed projects a combination of higher growth, lower unemployment, and higher inflation, with the terminal rate lowered to 3.4% from 3.6% [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The current economic environment suggests that a moderate reduction in the federal funds rate could stabilize inflation around 3% to 4%, potentially improving the labor market [6]. - The anticipated continuation of rate cuts may accelerate the repricing of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals [6]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts reflects a balance between addressing labor market signals and managing inflation risks [9].

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1][2] - The FOMC's dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected this year, totaling 50 basis points, which is one more than previously forecasted in June [2][6] - The market reacted sharply to the announcement, with mixed results in major U.S. stock indices [2] Economic Outlook - The FOMC noted a slowdown in economic activity and employment growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [1][4] - The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-over-year, with core PCE up 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5] - The FOMC emphasized its commitment to achieving "maximum employment" and a 2% inflation target, acknowledging increased risks to employment [4][5] Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index experienced significant volatility, initially dropping to a new low since 2025 before rebounding [3][9] - Investors are increasingly looking to hedge against a weakening dollar, with a survey indicating 38% of fund managers seeking to increase hedging positions [9][10] - The Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar, reaching a near 10.5-month high, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed [10] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The FOMC's decision was passed with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, with the dissenting vote coming from newly appointed member Stephen Milan, who favored a larger cut [6][7] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised due to political pressures, particularly from President Trump [6][7] - The FOMC's economic projections show an increase in GDP growth expectations and a decrease in unemployment rate forecasts for the coming years [8]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Milan, nominated by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence and its dual mandate of "price stability and maximum employment" [1][2] Group 1: Nomination and Responsibilities - Milan's nomination aims to fill the remaining term of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, which ends on January 31, 2026 [1] - If confirmed, Milan will complete Kugler's remaining term rather than becoming a permanent member [1] Group 2: Policy Stance and Economic Analysis - Trump has long advocated for significantly lowering borrowing costs, while Milan has previously criticized the Fed's aggressive stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Milan commits to making decisions based on macroeconomic analysis and long-term optimization if confirmed [2] Group 3: Independence and Oversight - Milan stresses the importance of the Federal Open Market Committee's independence and its responsibility to serve the American public [2] - He expresses concerns regarding the Fed's activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly related to the central bank's balance sheet [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, aims to reassure concerns about potential government pressure on the Fed's independence during his upcoming Senate Banking Committee hearing [2][3] Group 1: Miran's Position and Responsibilities - Miran emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence in preventing economic downturns and inflation, stating that he will work to maintain this independence if appointed [2] - He commits to making policy decisions based on macroeconomic analysis and the long-term health of the economy, adhering to Congress's goals of low inflation and a healthy labor market [2] - Miran raises questions about the Fed's regulatory activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly regarding the composition of its balance sheet [2] Group 2: Context and Implications - Miran's potential appointment comes at a sensitive time for the Fed, which has faced pressure from Trump for not significantly lowering interest rates as expected [2][3] - If confirmed, Miran will fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, who resigned, and his term may be short-lived, potentially lasting only a few months [3] - There are speculations that Trump may be seeking to appoint a "shadow chairman" to influence the Fed's direction, as he has expressed a desire for a board majority that aligns with his views [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve faces a "tension" between its inflation and labor market goals, highlighting a significant dilemma in current monetary policy [1][4][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes promoting price stability, typically aiming for a 2% inflation rate [2] - The second goal is to achieve maximum employment, seeking the lowest possible unemployment rate [3] Group 2: Current Economic Environment - The current economic environment has created a "tension" where measures to combat high inflation may adversely affect the strong labor market [4] - Despite a recent decline in inflation, it remains stubbornly high, complicating the Fed's efforts to reach its 2% target [4] - The labor market remains robust, with low unemployment and high wage growth, which can contribute to upward pressure on prices [4] Group 3: Policy Dilemma - The Fed faces a policy paradox: tightening financial conditions to control inflation could lead to increased unemployment and potential recession [5] - Conversely, prematurely easing monetary policy to protect the labor market could reignite inflation, necessitating more aggressive future adjustments [5] Group 4: Market Implications - The Fed's dilemma suggests high volatility in market reactions to economic data, particularly inflation and employment reports [8] - A scenario of prolonged high interest rates is becoming the baseline assumption, with expectations for rate cuts being continually pushed back [9] - Increased uncertainty surrounds the Fed's decision-making path, making any single directional bet risky for investors [10] Group 5: Conclusion - The "tension" articulated by the Fed is not indicative of policy failure but rather a candid acknowledgment of the challenges faced in a complex economic landscape [11] - Understanding this dilemma is crucial for investors in interpreting the Fed's future actions and managing investment risks [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is increasingly leaning towards interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in September approaching 100% probability [1][2][3] - Recent economic data, particularly the weak non-farm payrolls report for July, has weakened the narrative of a robust economy, prompting a shift in the Fed's stance [2][3] - The internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have become more apparent, with two dissenting votes in the July meeting marking a significant shift in the committee's dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. economy's underlying strength are growing, with signs of a weakening labor market and slowing consumer spending, particularly in the manufacturing and service sectors [3][4] - The upcoming inflation and employment data releases will be critical for the Fed's decision-making process regarding potential rate cuts [4][8] - Market sentiment is heavily leaning towards the expectation of rate cuts, with discussions even considering the possibility of a 50 basis point reduction [4][9] Group 3 - The stock market has reacted positively to the Fed's dovish signals, with major indices rebounding over 1% [5] - However, there are concerns that the stock market may be entering a bubble territory, with warnings about potential overvaluation and cautious behavior from corporate executives [6][7] - The risk of a recession looms, as indicators suggest a weakening economy, which could negatively impact the stock market despite the favorable conditions created by potential rate cuts [7][10] Group 4 - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment is becoming increasingly challenging, as inflation pressures and labor market weaknesses coexist [8][9] - The Fed's current approach is to prioritize avoiding significant policy missteps over precise timing of actions, indicating a cautious and reactive stance [11]