智通财经APP获悉，两位在填补美联储空缺职位方面占据重要地位的经济学家周二表示，他们不认为关 税会导致通胀，这一观点与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普希望美联储降低利率的意愿一致。据报道，斯蒂芬· 米兰和詹姆斯·布拉德在接受采访时驳斥了许多非白宫经济学家的观点，即关税将导致长期物价上涨。 特朗普已提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰出任美联储理事一职，以填补美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格 勒突然辞职留下的空缺。本周有报道称，包括布拉德在内的至少六名候选人将角逐美联储主席职位。布 拉德曾担任圣路易斯联储主席。 两人都没有明确表态将如何对利率问题做出投票决定。不过，他们赞扬了特朗普的促经济增长议程，并 发表了与特朗普立场相符的言论，即通胀不是问题。 米兰表示："目前仍然没有任何证据表明关税会引发通胀。" 布拉德表示，数据继续显示，特朗普的激进关税并未导致通胀。他预测，负责制定利率的联邦公开市场 委员会(FOMC)将从9月开始降息，并可能在未来12个月内将基准利率下调整整一个百分点，他表示这将 使利率"接近"中性。 他表示："六个月前关税问题出现时，该委员会暂停了降息计划，现在有了六个月的相关数据。我认为 关税不会导致通胀，税收也不会 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's consideration of a major lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due to significant cost overruns on the Fed's headquarters renovation project, which escalated from an initial estimate of $50 million to $3 billion [1][3][4] - Trump's criticism of Powell includes a call for immediate interest rate cuts, labeling Powell as ineffective and attributing economic damage to his delayed actions [4][6] - The renovation project has become a focal point for Trump to exert pressure on Powell and the Federal Reserve, especially after the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates in July [6][7] Group 2 - Following the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, Trump commented that tariffs have not raised inflation and that American consumers are not bearing the cost of tariffs [7] - Trump's remarks on the CPI coincided with a notable market reaction, where the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield initially fell but later recovered, reflecting market sensitivity to his statements [4][6] - Trump's ongoing efforts to influence the Federal Reserve include nominating his chief economic advisor, Stephen Moore, for a position on the Fed's board, which requires Senate approval and is seen as a strategic move to secure a long-term successor for Powell [6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the US May CPI and core CPI were both below expectations, suggesting that overall inflationary pressure remains moderate. Following the data release, the market slightly adjusted its expectations for Fed rate cuts, anticipating two cuts within the year, with the first expected in September. It is noted that tariffs have not yet fully manifested their impact on inflation, and risks of inflationary pressure still exist in the US [3]. Group 2: Fixed Income Strategy - The report emphasizes a "barbell strategy" in fixed income investments, focusing on both technology and domestic demand defensive themes. The previous period's barbell strategy yielded a return of 15.98% for selected convertible bonds, with all holdings generating positive returns. The report suggests maintaining high-rated large base bonds while increasing holdings in mid-to-low priced convertible bonds and quality targets in popular themes [4]. Group 3: Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials sector is currently in a bottoming process, with cement companies experiencing a 16.99% decline in revenue and a 19.99% drop in net profit in 2024. The industry is relying on staggered production halts to stabilize prices, which often leads to increased average losses before prices recover. The glass industry also faced significant declines, with revenues down 11.1% and net profits down 88.6% in 2024. However, there are signs of potential recovery in 2025, particularly in the glass fiber sector, which has shown improved profitability in recent quarters [5][6][7]. Group 4: Electronics Sector - The report on Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) highlights its diversified layout in storage, MCU, and sensor fields, with storage revenue expected to exceed 70% in 2024. The company is positioned as the second-largest player in the global NOR Flash market and is anticipated to see significant growth in its DRAM business. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.36 billion, 11.46 billion, and 13.55 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.46 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.38 billion yuan [8].