研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 18 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 【棉花市场消息】 1、海关数据初步显示 2025 年 11 月我国进口棉纱线（海关编码 5204-5207）量约 15 万吨，环比 10 月进口 量增加约 1 万吨，与 2024 年 11 月进口量相较同比增涨 3 万吨左右。2025 年 1-11 月棉纱线进口（海关编码 5204-5207）总计 133 万吨， 较去年 1-11 月进口量同比下降 4 万吨左右，两者差距进一步缩小。 2、 中国棉花进口：2025 年 11 月进口 12 万吨，同比（10.82 万吨）增 1.18 万吨，环比（8.9 万吨）增 3.1 万吨；2025 年 1-11 月累计进口 89 万吨，同比降 64%，同比（247.44 万吨）降 158.45 万吨；2025/26 ...

Core Insights - The continuation of mutual tariff reductions between China and the US is aimed at establishing a mechanism for long-term strategic communication, as highlighted in the joint statement from the Stockholm trade talks [2][10][15] - The agreement includes a 90-day "cooling-off period" during which a 24% tariff will be suspended, while a 10% baseline tariff will remain in place, allowing for adjustments in supply chains and market expectations [2][13][15] - The trade negotiation mechanism has shifted from crisis management to institutional dialogue, focusing on phased compromises and dynamic adjustments to alleviate short-term trade frictions and address deeper issues [2][14][15] Industry and Company Focus - High export exposure industries, such as home appliances and consumer electronics, are expected to benefit from the reduction in tariffs, enhancing their profit elasticity [2][18] - The drive for technological self-sufficiency, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, is supported by domestic substitution and policy incentives [2][18] - High-growth sectors, including domestic computing power (GPU/servers/optical modules), industrial mother machines, and defense industries, are recommended for attention due to their potential for significant development [2][18]