1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts' closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest data for CF and CY contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 [2] - Spot prices of various cotton and yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, and CY IndexC32S, along with their price changes [2] - Price spreads are given, including cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as domestic - foreign spreads [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of December 18, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.4244 million tons, accounting for 78% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 9% slower than the same period last year [4] - The ON - CALL data shows that as of December 12, 2025, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,039 to 21,369, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to last week [4] - In November 2025, the export volume of all - cotton grey fabrics was 48.58 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 22%, and the export value was $46.23 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [5] - The new cotton in the 25/26 season is in good harvest, but the sales progress is fast, and ginneries have little pressure to sell. There are rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills are expected to expand production capacity, all of which are positive for cotton prices [6] - Sino - U.S. relations are easing, and the mutual reduction of tariffs is beneficial for China's textile and clothing exports [6] - The cotton fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to rise further. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [6] Trading Strategies - The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish in the short - term [7] - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9] Yarn Industry - The overall atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is weak, except for high - count yarns. Some traders are optimistic about future consumption and buy on dips [9] - The pure - cotton grey fabric market remains differentiated. Weaving mills' orders have declined, and they mainly have small orders with tight delivery times. Profits are in the red, and they are not confident about the post - Chinese New Year market [9] Group 3: Options - Options contract data including closing prices, price change rates, implied volatility, and other parameters are presented for CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC [11] - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 is 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 is 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 is 17.8% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is 0.7339, and the volume PCR is 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased today [12] - It is recommended to wait and see in options trading [13] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - Figures show various price spreads and basis data, including 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month cotton basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has strong fundamentals with multiple positive factors supporting it. There is a high probability that US cotton will move in a range-bound manner, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a moderately bullish trend. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [6][7]. - The cotton yarn industry has a weak downstream demand. The cotton yarn market has a light trading volume, and the weaving mills have high inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream restocking [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: Most cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts closed lower. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,940, down 60; the CY01 contract closed at 19,855, down 40 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 68; the CY IndexC32S price was 20,830, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: In cotton, the 1 - 5 - month spread was -5, down 15; in cotton yarn, the 1 - 5 - month spread was -185, down 20 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - In November 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was about 150,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the total imported cotton yarn volume was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 40,000 tons [4]. - In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 11,800 tons and a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% [4]. - The average temperature in the US cotton - growing areas was 49.79°F, 3.21°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.05 inches, 0.28 inches lower than the same period last year. The temperature in Texas increased and precipitation decreased, and the La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter may lead to drought during the sowing season [5]. - **Trading Logic**: Positive factors in the market support a strong cotton fundamentals. Technically, cotton has increased in positions and broken through the previous platform, with potential for further upward movement [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: US cotton is likely to move in a range - bound manner, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend moderately bullish [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - Zhengzhou cotton is moderately bullish. The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, mainly for rigid demand. Weaving mills have high inventory levels, but there is still restocking demand in some areas. The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable to slightly weak last week, and spinning mills with high inventory levels promoted sales by reducing prices [9]. - The trading volume in the all - cotton greige fabric market is light, with only small orders in some areas. Weaving mills have high inventory levels and limited destocking effects [9]. 3.3 Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11]. - **Options Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spreads, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton and cotton yarn contracts [15][18][22][23].