来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇9月11日｜欧洲央行仍在观望，等待特朗普政府的关税将如何影响经济增长和通胀。周四，央行 连续第二次会议将主要存款利率维持在2%不变。从2024年6月开始，它已八次降息，这是一次与美联储 形成鲜明对比的激进宽松行动。近期，美联储不愿降息招致了特朗普的批评，这种批评已经演变成可能 破坏美联储独立性的举措。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated potential for interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting, citing changes in baseline outlook and risk balance as reasons for policy adjustments [3][4][5] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy changes, with the labor market remaining close to maximum employment and inflation having decreased from pandemic highs [9] - Recent economic challenges include increased tariffs reshaping global trade, tighter immigration policies slowing labor force growth, and long-term changes in tax and regulatory policies impacting economic growth and productivity [10] Labor Market Insights - The July employment report revealed a significant slowdown in job creation, with an average of only 35,000 new jobs added over the past three months, far below the projected 168,000 for 2024 [10][11] - Despite the slowdown, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, and other labor market indicators show only slight weakening, suggesting a peculiar balance in the labor market that poses rising downside risks for employment [10][11] Inflation Dynamics - Inflation risks are currently tilted upward, while employment risks are leaning downward, creating a challenging scenario for policymakers [4][13] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, with tariffs contributing to rising consumer prices, although these effects are expected to be one-time shocks rather than sustained inflation [11][12] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, market reactions were notably dovish, with the dollar index dropping approximately 0.5% and U.S. Treasury yields falling sharply, particularly the two-year yield which decreased by 9 basis points to 3.70% [4][5] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to about 90% from 75% prior to Powell's speech, with significant gains observed in major U.S. stock indices, including a rise of over 700 points in the Dow Jones [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward adjustment in GDP growth forecast for China, expecting a decline from 5.4% in Q1 to below 4.5% in Q2 2025 due to tariff impacts and reduced trade volume with the US [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the high tariffs imposed have significantly affected trade, with a 64% month-on-month decrease in container bookings from China to the US in April 2025 [2][3]. - Consumer confidence in real estate and overall spending is weakening, with survey data showing increased concerns about income and employment among consumers [3][20]. - The report anticipates a potential reduction in tariffs in the coming months, with expectations of a 60% average reduction by the end of June 2025, and a further 34% reduction by the end of the year, although achieving a comprehensive and lasting resolution remains challenging [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The report projects a significant economic downturn in Q2 2025, with the GDP growth rate expected to drop below 4.5% due to the adverse effects of tariffs and declining domestic demand [9][2]. - It notes that the high tariffs have led to a contraction in trade volume, particularly with the US, impacting various sectors including consumer electronics and automotive [2][3]. Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has been notably affected, with a marked decline in sentiment regarding real estate and consumer spending, as evidenced by survey results indicating fears of job loss and reduced income [3][20]. - The report mentions that the sales growth of online appliances and passenger vehicles has slowed, reflecting the broader economic concerns [3][25]. Trade Relations - The report discusses the complexities of US-China trade relations, indicating that while there is a window for tariff reductions, the path to a comprehensive agreement is fraught with difficulties [4][9]. - It emphasizes that a significant portion of Chinese exports to the US (30-40%) are less elastic to tariffs, particularly in sectors where the US has a high dependency on Chinese imports [3][15].