市场对此已作出理性反应。联邦基金期货市场显示，投资者对年内进一步降息的预期较上月有所收敛，反映出对政策不确定性的重新定价。这种市场预期调 整，实质是政策制定者与市场参与者对经济前景判断的动态博弈过程。 美联储政策路径将取决于通胀下行速度与劳动力市场韧性的相对表现。若服务业通胀持续高位运行，或劳动力市场出现超预期降温，政策节奏可能再度调 整。但可以确定的是，在通胀目标实现前，联储将维持"数据依赖型"决策框架，在保持政策灵活性的同时，强化通胀承诺的可信度——这既是维护物价稳定 的制度要求，也是避免市场预期紊乱的关键所在。 古尔斯比则从数据可得性角度补充政策挑战：政府停摆导致关键经济数据缺失，使利率路径制定面临信息真空。他特别强调需持续监测服务业通胀回升态 势，并警惕就业市场结构性失衡风险。两位官员的表态共同强化了"渐进主义"政策倾向——在通胀风险与增长风险间寻求动态平衡。 这种政策审慎性具有经济学逻辑支撑。根据菲利普斯曲线理论，通胀与失业率存在长期替代关系，但本轮周期中供给冲击与需求韧性导致曲线形态发生变 化。联储需要在避免"工资-价格螺旋"的同时，防止政策紧缩过度引发失业率骤升。洛根提出的"政策正常化放缓"策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated potential for interest rate cuts in the upcoming September meeting, citing changes in baseline outlook and risk balance as reasons for policy adjustments [3][4][5] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant policy changes, with the labor market remaining close to maximum employment and inflation having decreased from pandemic highs [9] - Recent economic challenges include increased tariffs reshaping global trade, tighter immigration policies slowing labor force growth, and long-term changes in tax and regulatory policies impacting economic growth and productivity [10] Labor Market Insights - The July employment report revealed a significant slowdown in job creation, with an average of only 35,000 new jobs added over the past three months, far below the projected 168,000 for 2024 [10][11] - Despite the slowdown, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, and other labor market indicators show only slight weakening, suggesting a peculiar balance in the labor market that poses rising downside risks for employment [10][11] Inflation Dynamics - Inflation risks are currently tilted upward, while employment risks are leaning downward, creating a challenging scenario for policymakers [4][13] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, with tariffs contributing to rising consumer prices, although these effects are expected to be one-time shocks rather than sustained inflation [11][12] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, market reactions were notably dovish, with the dollar index dropping approximately 0.5% and U.S. Treasury yields falling sharply, particularly the two-year yield which decreased by 9 basis points to 3.70% [4][5] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to about 90% from 75% prior to Powell's speech, with significant gains observed in major U.S. stock indices, including a rise of over 700 points in the Dow Jones [5]