Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.17% to 97.68 due to increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over its independence [1] - Spot gold rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, reaching a high of nearly $3490, closing up 0.82% at $3476.39 per ounce [1] - Silver prices surged 2.36%, breaking the $40 per ounce mark for the first time since September 2011, closing at $40.68 [1] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming US labor data, including JOLTS job openings, ADP non-farm employment, and initial jobless claims, which may influence expectations for non-farm payrolls [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting have raised the probability of a rate cut in September to over 90% [1] - The geopolitical situation, particularly regarding Russia's energy supply, is impacting oil prices, with WTI crude oil closing up 2.24% at $65.08 per barrel [3][5] Group 3 - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of over 5% in August, marking the best monthly performance since April [3] - Oil prices are experiencing volatility, with a focus on the resistance level at $66.50 after touching $65 [5] - The balance between long-term and short-term trading strategies is crucial for sustained success in the market [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a stage of volatile upward movement, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The reasons are as follows: in terms of the risk - aversion logic, the impact of tariffs is still fluctuating in the short term, and there is no significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, so the long - term risk - aversion logic still exists; in terms of the investment logic, the central bank adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August annual meeting, greatly increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, with an expected interest rate cut of 50 - 75bp within the year, and the expected decline in interest rates will drive up the gold price [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In August, the gold price remained in a high - level volatile range, with the COMEX gold price fluctuating around $3380 - 3480 per ounce. The reasons for the price movement include high - level uncertainty in US tariff disputes in August and the lack of obvious progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, which maintained long - term risk - aversion sentiment; the adjustment of the monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole annual meeting in August increased the expectation of an interest rate cut, which may continue to drive up the gold price [7][8]. 2. Financial Attributes - The core of the financial attributes is the US Treasury real interest rate (represented by the ITIPS yield), and historical data shows an obvious negative correlation between the gold price and the real interest rate. It is mainly affected by US economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, with monetary policy being the most direct influencing factor in the short to medium term [15]. - The US economic situation: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious recovery from the first quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the current US economic growth rate is still low. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48%, still below the boom - bust line, and new orders were also below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing's prosperity after the suspension of interest rate cuts. In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021. In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, remaining flat with the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation; it rose 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous value of 0.3% [19][22][26]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has risen to about 85%, mainly because the Federal Reserve adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August central bank annual meeting. There is a high probability of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The previous June dot - plot showed that Federal Reserve officials thought there would be 2 interest rate cuts within the year, but there were differences [33][35][38]. 3. Monetary Attributes - In terms of monetary attributes, the impact of US dollar credit and other risk events is mainly considered. In August, the US dollar index fluctuated around the 97 - 98 level. With Powell's dovish statement at the August central bank annual meeting and Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve Council, the US dollar index declined slightly in late August [40][44]. - The GPR risk indicator shows that the geopolitical risk level in the US declined in August compared with the previous two months, mainly due to the smooth progress of US tariff negotiations. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations are ongoing, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains relatively tense [48]. 4. Commodity Attributes - In the long run, the supply of gold is sufficient as it is relatively stable. From 2023 - 2024, the global gold supply will continue to increase steadily. However, the domestic gold production may continue to decline year by year due to factors such as the decline in gold grades in mining areas and the pressure of environmental protection expenditures. In terms of demand, jewelry demand will drive the overall demand to pick up [51]. Hedging Strategies for Different Participants - For mining enterprises, smelting enterprises, and terminal consumers with inventory who are worried about the decline in the gold price, short - term negative factors suggest shorting gold futures for hedging, with the contract being au251. For smelting enterprises and terminal consumers who are purchasing raw materials and worried about the rise in the gold price, direct long - buying of gold futures is recommended, also with the contract au251 [2][4]. Key Data to Watch - The September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the August US economic data [2].

Group 1 - Precious metals prices surged this week, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.2% to $3516.1 per ounce, a weekly increase of 2.86% and a monthly increase of 5.2%. COMEX silver futures rose 2.64% to $40.75 per ounce, with a weekly increase of over 4% and a monthly increase of 10.76% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, driven by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data and inflation figures that provide the Fed with room to lower rates. Powell's dovish comments at the global central bank meeting further supported this outlook [1][2] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have pressured the U.S. dollar index, which fell below 98, providing additional support for precious metal prices [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of gold and silver futures is influenced by the Fed's policy shift, with market expectations for a September rate cut exceeding 90%. This shift has weakened the dollar's credibility [2] - Silver's price increase is also driven by robust industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electronics, with industrial demand accounting for over 55% of silver usage [2] - The market anticipates that as long as August's non-farm employment and inflation data do not significantly exceed expectations, the likelihood of a rate cut in September remains high, although consecutive cuts may not occur [3]

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting indicated a dovish stance, suggesting that the risks of a downturn in the labor market outweigh the risks of rising inflation, thus opening the door for a potential rate cut in September [1] - The Fed's policy framework is shifting from an average inflation targeting (AIT) to a flexible inflation target of 2%, eliminating the concept of inflation "compensation" [1] - The labor market's downward risks and the delayed inflation effects from tariffs are expected to support the case for a rate cut in September [1][2] Kuaishou (快手) - Kuaishou's Q2 2025 total revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching 5.6 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10% due to improved gross margin and marketing expense ratio [3][5] - For Q3 2025, e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 15%, driven by increased frequency across multiple scenarios, while advertising revenue is projected to grow by 13%, lower than previous expectations due to reduced advertising budgets [5] - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance to 125 million USD, indicating further upside potential [5] Stone Pharmaceutical Group (石药集团) - In Q2 2025, the pharmaceutical business continued to face pressure, with revenue declining by 18% year-on-year, and product sales dropping by 25% after excluding licensing fees [6][7] - The management expects a sequential improvement in H2 2025, with revenue projected to grow by over 5% compared to H1 2025 and return to positive growth year-on-year [6] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.14 HKD per share, with an expected full-year dividend of no less than 0.28 HKD per share [6] Jiumaojiu (九毛九) - Jiumaojiu's revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 10.1% year-on-year to 2.75 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of 16% to 60.69 million RMB due to same-store sales decline and store network adjustments [8][9] - The company is exploring new store models to drive same-store sales recovery, although the current network is still in a restructuring phase [9] - The management anticipates closing an additional 40-50 stores in H2 2025, indicating ongoing adjustments to the store network [9] Link REIT (领展房托) - Link REIT expects that the impact of potential interest rate cuts will outweigh rental adjustments, leading to a slight increase in target price to 49.80 HKD [10][11] - The company predicts that the recent decline in HIBOR/SORA/BBSY will help reduce financing costs, maintaining a buy rating [11] - The rental income from the mainland remains stable, with slight pressure on rental income from retail and office assets [12]

Core Viewpoint - The market is reacting to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, influenced by recent comments from Powell, which have led to increased trading activity in precious metals like silver and gold [3]. Group 1: Market Data - The current trading price of silver is approximately $38.90 per ounce, with T+D silver trading around 9345 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 11.3 tons to a total of 15,288.82 tons [2]. - Last week, silver opened at $37.937, reached a high of $39.058, and closed at $38.895, indicating a strong bullish trend [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed's business activity index for August is a key focus for the market today [1]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 84.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a cumulative 50 basis point cut having a 44.1% probability [3]. Group 3: Global Trade and Policy - President Trump announced tariffs on furniture imported from other countries, while Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated that retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods under the USMCA will be lifted, effective September 1 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities indicates that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank summit aligns with previous expectations, emphasizing the downside risks in the labor market and reiterating the view from the July meeting that "tariff inflation is transitory," paving the way for a rate cut in September [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The Fed has abandoned the average inflation targeting framework, returning to a flexible inflation targeting approach, with revised language emphasizing attention to "two-sided" employment market risks [1] Market Implications - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the main theme of "rate cut trading" in the U.S. stock market has been clarified, with a "catch-up" trading logic expected to dominate the upcoming market [1] - Similar to the "rate cut trading" in July 2024, sectors sensitive to interest rates such as Russell 2000, S&P 500 Real Estate, and Nasdaq Biotechnology may experience upward trends again [1] Currency and Bond Market - There remains a gap between market expectations for two rate cuts this year and the company's forecast of three [1] - It is anticipated that U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index will have slight downward space [1] Global Equity Market - Powell's dovish comments and a weaker dollar are expected to boost global equity market risk appetite [1] Gold Market - Rate cut expectations are likely to support gold prices, although caution is advised regarding potential negative impacts from a possible agreement between Russia and Ukraine [1]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual event held by the Kansas Federal Reserve in August, where central bank leaders announce adjustments or signals regarding monetary policy frameworks, particularly the Federal Reserve Chairman [2][10][11] - In recent years, Powell has made significant announcements at this event, including the average inflation targeting in 2020, reaffirming the temporary inflation view in 2021, and discussing the transition to a rate-cutting cycle in 2024 [2][11] Group 2 - Powell's speech this year emphasized the increasing risks of employment downturn, indicating that while the labor market appears balanced, it is a "strange balance" due to significant supply-demand slowdown, which could lead to increased layoffs and rising unemployment [3][13] - The likelihood of tariff price shocks evolving into sustained inflation seems unlikely, as current impacts are expected to be temporary and not lead to a "wage-price spiral" due to a less tight labor market [3][14] - Powell hinted at a potential rate cut in September, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 72% to 81.3% following his speech, indicating a shift in the Fed's assessment of inflation and employment risks [4][15][16] Group 3 - The adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy framework reflects changes in the macroeconomic environment, moving from an average inflation targeting to a flexible inflation targeting approach, allowing for more adaptability in response to economic conditions [5][21][24] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement indicates a recognition that the neutral interest rate may now be higher than in the 2010s, suggesting a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [5][21] - The Fed's focus will now be on achieving a 2% inflation target in the medium term while retaining flexibility to respond to short-term economic developments [5][24]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated increasing downside risks to employment and suggested that tariff impacts on inflation may be one-time events, implying a potential adjustment in policy stance [1][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell described the labor market as being in a "peculiar balance" due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, which raises concerns about potential job losses and rising unemployment rates [1]. - He noted that while inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, employment risks are tilted downward, creating a challenging situation for policy decisions [4]. Monetary Policy Implications - Powell's remarks have strengthened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the probability of such a move rising to around 92% immediately after his speech [4][5]. - Analysts believe that Powell's statements signal a consensus within the Fed for policy adjustments, with employment risks becoming a key trigger for changes [5][6]. Internal Fed Dynamics - There are significant internal divisions within the Fed regarding interest rate adjustments, with some officials expressing skepticism about the need for a rate cut in September [7][8]. - Despite these divisions, Powell's prioritization of employment risks suggests that disagreements may affect the pace of rate cuts rather than the direction [8]. Policy Framework Changes - Powell indicated a shift in the Fed's monetary policy framework, moving away from the "flexible average inflation targeting" adopted in 2020, which is no longer deemed suitable given current inflation levels [9]. - This adjustment allows the Fed more flexibility to prioritize employment over inflation targets when conflicts arise, potentially reshaping capital flows and providing opportunities for emerging market assets [9].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the softening labor market is becoming a key variable in policy considerations, opening the possibility for a rate cut in September [1][2] - The market interpreted Powell's stance as more dovish than expected, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a drop in the dollar, while U.S. stocks strengthened [1][3] - According to CME's FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose to 89%, up from 75% the previous day, with expectations for a total cut of approximately 58 basis points this year [1] Group 2 - Powell noted that the U.S. labor market is in an "unusual balance," with both supply and demand significantly slowing down, indicating rising downside risks to employment [2] - The July non-farm payroll data showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, well below the market expectation of 115,000, with previous months' job additions revised down by 258,000 [2] - Powell highlighted the need for cautious policy adjustments, stating that while the labor market indicators remain stable, changes in the baseline outlook and risk balance may warrant policy adjustments [2] Group 3 - Analysts believe Powell is attempting to downplay inflation risks while emphasizing the urgency of labor market weakness, with some suggesting that a rate cut is almost certain unless the employment report is unexpectedly strong [3] - Powell reiterated that the 2020 revision of the monetary policy framework does not imply a permanent abandonment of the ability to raise rates in response to a strong labor market [3][4] - The latest adjustments to the policy framework provide greater flexibility for the Federal Reserve to respond to a more volatile post-pandemic economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. labor market is experiencing an "unusual balance," with both supply and demand slowing, which poses downside risks to employment [1][2] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - Powell highlighted that the July employment data was revised down, showing an increase of only 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 115,000 [2] - The revisions for May and June showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, indicating rising risks in the labor market [2] - Powell warned that if these risks materialize, they could lead to a surge in layoffs and an increase in the unemployment rate [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The market interpreted Powell's stance as more dovish than expected, with a significant increase in bets for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, rising to 89% from 75% the previous day [1][3] - Powell emphasized the need for cautious policy adjustments, balancing inflation and employment goals [2][3] - The Fed's updated policy framework allows for more flexibility, indicating that employment levels may exceed real-time assessments without necessarily threatening price stability [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts noted that Powell's comments downplayed inflation risks while highlighting the urgency of addressing labor market weaknesses [3] - Financial institutions expect that unless the employment report is unexpectedly strong, a rate cut in September is almost certain [3] - Powell's cautious tone comes amid political pressure from President Trump for immediate rate cuts and calls for the resignation of Fed officials [4]