| 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月06日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 隔夜美国公布7月非制造业PMI从50.8下滑至50.1低于预期的51.5。美联储独立性问题、美国经济前景担忧以 及降息预期升温令美元维持偏弱趋势,国际金价再度测试近三个月以来运行区间高位阻力。美国经济的不断 验证可能令市场情绪存在反复,贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路。 ★关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stock markets rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US dollar index strengthening. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues are causing market uncertainty and potential volatility [1][2] - The US is imposing high reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, aiming to pressure trade partners into reaching agreements. The US dollar may remain strong in the short - term, but faces downward pressure in the medium - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stock markets rose, bond yields mostly increased, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.4, and the spot commodity index rose, with Brent crude oil up 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with US stocks falling and A - shares rising. The S&P 500 dropped 0.31%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues may cause the stock market to face downward pressure and adjustment risks [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.41%. Eurozone government bonds mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US bond supply pressure is not fully reflected, but inflation pressure is increasing, and bond yields are expected to continue rising [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB fell 0.12%, the euro dropped 0.77%, the pound fell 1.16%, the yen declined 2.05%, and the Swiss franc dropped 0.33%. The Brazilian real and the South African rand fell more than 2%, and the South Korean won, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, etc. also declined [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce. The upcoming US tariffs increased market risk aversion, and gold prices are expected to remain high with potential increased volatility. Brent crude oil rose 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but the US tariff on copper imports caused Comex copper to strengthen, and the commodity spot index rose [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US reciprocal tariffs are back, and market volatility has intensified. The US is imposing high tariffs on multiple countries, and the trade negotiation progress is slow. The US dollar may be strong in the short - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [33][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Events - China's June foreign trade and financial data, the second - quarter GDP, the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, the Fed's Beige Book, Japan's June CPI, and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be released [37]