Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have accelerated since late August, reaching historical highs, with spot gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time on October 8, 2023, driven by U.S. government debt issues and the long-term logic of de-dollarization [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 8, 2023, London spot gold and COMEX futures prices both increased by over 1%, with intraday highs of $4040.49 and $4063.4 per ounce, respectively [1]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll reports, leading to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][4]. - Analysts predict that gold prices may enter a high-level consolidation phase in Q4 2023, as recent price increases have largely priced in positive factors [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The performance of gold-related stocks in Hong Kong has been strong, with several companies reaching historical highs, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, which rose over 13% [2]. - The North American gold ETF holdings have significantly increased, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings reaching 1000 tons by the end of September 2023 [4]. - Despite a slowdown in the absolute quantity of global central bank gold purchases, as long as the purchase volume remains above historical averages, it will continue to support gold prices [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - High expectations for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to sustain investment demand for gold [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that international gold prices could rise to $4900 per ounce by Q2 2026, driven by increased ETF holdings and stable central bank demand [4]. - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by persistent U.S. government debt issues and the ongoing de-dollarization process [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a new high, with London spot gold hitting $3,895.28 per ounce and currently at $3,889.28 per ounce as of October 1 [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands reported rising prices, with the highest price for 24K gold jewelry reaching 1,130 CNY per gram, an increase of 19 CNY from two days prior [2] - The market in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area saw gold jewelry prices rise to 888 CNY per gram, up from approximately 796 CNY in early September, indicating a significant price increase [2] Group 2 - Retailers are cautious about inventory due to high gold prices, adopting a strategy of buying back only what they sell to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [3] - The profit margins for gold jewelry are reported to be between 10% to 20% for weight-based pricing, while "one-price" gold jewelry can have margins of 30% to 40% [3] - The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests that gold may continue to experience a bullish trend due to ongoing U.S. government debt issues and the long-term logic of de-dollarization [3] Group 3 - As gold prices rise, investors are diversifying into silver and platinum, leading to a decrease in the gold-silver ratio, which is approaching historical lows [4] - The short-term upward trend in silver prices may be nearing its end, facing potential resistance near historical high points [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently in a wait-and-see mode, assessing the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on economic growth and inflation [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The ECB has maintained its main deposit rate at 2% for the second consecutive meeting [1] - Since June 2024, the ECB has implemented eight rate cuts, contrasting sharply with the Federal Reserve's approach [1] Group 2: Political Influence - Recent reluctance from the Federal Reserve to cut rates has drawn criticism from President Trump, which may threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Group 2: Core Views - The decline of the US non - manufacturing PMI in July, concerns about the Fed's independence, the US economic outlook, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts have weakened the US dollar, causing international gold prices to test the resistance at the high of the operating range in the past three months. Amid the repeated market sentiment due to the continuous verification of the US economy, the idea of buying on dips is maintained in the precious metals' oscillating trend [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information US Economic Data - The US non - manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.8 in June to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The July ISM new orders index decreased from 51.3 in June to 50.3, and export orders shrank for the fourth time in five months [1][2] - The US trade balance in June was -$60.2 billion, the smallest deficit since September 2023 [1] Tariff Information - Trump announced that drug and chip tariffs would be announced in the next week, with drug tariffs reaching up to 250%. Indian tariffs would be significantly increased within 24 hours, and a 35% tariff would be imposed if the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US [1] Political News - Trump believes that Vance is most likely to be the next presidential candidate, and Secretary of State Rubio would be helpful if he works with Vance. A new Fed chairman may be announced soon, with four candidates, and Bessent hopes to stay in the Treasury [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stock markets rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US dollar index strengthening. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues are causing market uncertainty and potential volatility [1][2] - The US is imposing high reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, aiming to pressure trade partners into reaching agreements. The US dollar may remain strong in the short - term, but faces downward pressure in the medium - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stock markets rose, bond yields mostly increased, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.4, and the spot commodity index rose, with Brent crude oil up 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with US stocks falling and A - shares rising. The S&P 500 dropped 0.31%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues may cause the stock market to face downward pressure and adjustment risks [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.41%. Eurozone government bonds mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US bond supply pressure is not fully reflected, but inflation pressure is increasing, and bond yields are expected to continue rising [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB fell 0.12%, the euro dropped 0.77%, the pound fell 1.16%, the yen declined 2.05%, and the Swiss franc dropped 0.33%. The Brazilian real and the South African rand fell more than 2%, and the South Korean won, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, etc. also declined [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce. The upcoming US tariffs increased market risk aversion, and gold prices are expected to remain high with potential increased volatility. Brent crude oil rose 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but the US tariff on copper imports caused Comex copper to strengthen, and the commodity spot index rose [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US reciprocal tariffs are back, and market volatility has intensified. The US is imposing high tariffs on multiple countries, and the trade negotiation progress is slow. The US dollar may be strong in the short - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [33][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Events - China's June foreign trade and financial data, the second - quarter GDP, the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, the Fed's Beige Book, Japan's June CPI, and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be released [37]