白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）周三表示，近期纽约联储一份研究报告的作者应被"处分"， 该报告发现美国企业和消费者承担了大部分关税成本。 在接受CNBC采访时，这位国家经济委员会主任猛烈抨击了这份报告，称纽约联储研究员忽视了关税运 作机制的关键方面，反而仅仅聚焦于物价。哈塞特表示，这项研究本应纳入美国企业将更多生产转移至 本土后，对薪资和福利产生的积极影响。 "我的意思是，这份报告令人尴尬，"哈塞特在《财经论谈》（Squawk Box）节目采访中表示，"我认 为，这是美联储历史上我见过的最差劲的一份报告。与这份报告相关的人员理应受到处分，因为他们得 出的结论引发了大量带有强烈党派色彩的新闻报道，而其依据的分析逻辑，连大一经济学课程都不会认 可。" "物价已经下降，通胀率也随时间推移走低。今年上半年进口价格大幅下跌，之后趋于平稳，去年实际 薪资平均上涨了1400美元，这意味着关税让消费者变得更富裕，"他说，"所以，如果纽约联储的分析是 正确的，消费者就不可能因关税受益。这份报告真的就是一种耻辱，我无法想象是谁批准发布的。" 数据显示，1月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，较2025 ...

格隆汇1月19日｜一家德国经济学智库称，美国进口商和消费者承担了96%的关税成本。基尔世界经济 研究所(Kiel Institute for the World Economy)的研究人员分析了超过2,500万条货运记录，涵盖了近4万亿 美元的美国进口商品。他们称，2025年美国海关收入增加了约2,000亿美元，但外国出口商仅吸收了约 4%的关税负担。他们称，尽管贸易量下降，但出口价格并未下跌。与印度和巴西的数据对比显示，出 口商并未降低价格以抵消美国额外的关税，这表明他们可以将商品转向其他地方。研究人员称："如果 出口商吸收了关税，他们在美国的售价会相对于其他市场下降——但事实并非如此。" ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to see a slight increase in both supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations due to policy influence. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weakening demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. Option market sentiment is bullish, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile way [2]. - The cast aluminum market is likely in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Light - position volatile trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,735 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the alumina futures main contract is 3,308 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan. The main - to - second - consecutive contract spread for Shanghai Aluminum is 50 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; for alumina, it is - 41 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Aluminum main contract positions decreased by 4,524 hands to 210,986 hands; alumina main contract positions decreased by 18,724 hands to 96,168 hands. LME aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons to 475,850 tons; alumina total inventory increased by 38,284 tons to 85,472 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 600 yuan to 110 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 55 yuan to - 105 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production increased by 26.13 tons to 774.93 tons, and demand decreased by 23.83 tons to 696.19 tons. The supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 tons to 27.14 tons [2]. - **Trade**: Alumina imports increased by 3.38 tons to 10.13 tons, and exports decreased by 4 tons to 17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: Electrolytic aluminum total capacity increased by 2.5 tons to 4,523.2 tons, and the开工 rate increased by 0.10% to 97.78%. Aluminum product production increased by 11.17 tons to 587.37 tons [2]. - **Trade**: Unwrought aluminum and aluminum product exports increased by 5.2 tons to 54.2 tons; aluminum alloy exports increased by 0.16 tons to 2.58 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: Automobile production increased by 16.66 million to 280.86 million; aluminum alloy production increased by 2.4 tons to 166.9 tons [2]. - **Index**: The National Real Estate Prosperity Index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 7.79%; the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.01% to 8.68% [2]. - **Ratio**: The purchase - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options increased by 0.0403 to 1.19 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House may announce the candidate this fall [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by October, consumers will bear 67% of the tariff cost, and enterprises' share will drop to less than 10% [2]. - In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle production and sales up 26.3% and 27.4% respectively, and new energy vehicle exports up 1.2 times [2]. - China opposes the politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of science, technology, and economic and trade issues [2].