Group 1 - President Trump threatened to raise the baseline tariff rate to 20%, citing record stock market gains to alleviate concerns about global economic impacts [1] - The market appears to be experiencing "tariff fatigue," with traders seemingly desensitized to economic risks, as indicated by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropping to its lowest level since February [2] - Analysts warn that the current market pricing reflects an overly optimistic view of tariff risks and economic conditions, with the S&P 500 index being considered overbought [2][3] Group 2 - The potential for increased tariffs may inadvertently provide a stronger basis for the administration to impose them, as financial indicators are viewed as measures of policy success by Trump [2] - Current economic impacts from tariffs have not yet materialized, with controlled inflation in the U.S. and strong Asian exports, although concerns about sustainability in growth remain [3] - The repeated threats of tariffs are seen as a strategy to accelerate negotiations, allowing Trump to claim victories without investors becoming overly concerned about each tweet or decision [3]

花旗：欧元区主权债期限结构短期化趋势显现 澳新银行：贸易不确定性持续，亚洲资本流入面临压力 荷兰国际：挪威克朗受通胀支撑有限，欧元兑NOK仍有下行空间 City Index："关税疲劳"加剧，市场亟需新催化剂推动波动性回升 花旗集团分析师认为，如果相关国家的关税不降低，市场可能会预期这些国家的央行将采取更多宽松货 币政策来应对。由于美国威胁加征关税，多数亚洲货币的多头仓位回落。韩元、马来西亚林吉特和泰铢 等货币的多头押注均有所下降。 荷兰国际集团分析师指出，尽管挪威通胀加速，挪威克朗的涨幅有限。市场认为挪威央行在8月再次降 息的可能性极小甚至不存在，尤其是在该央行于6月已经意外降息之后。分析师认为，欧元兑挪威克朗 有进一步下跌至11.50的空间，并表示欧元目前被高估。 【机构分析】 花旗分析师指出，欧元区规模最大的11个主权债券发行主体的总债务期限结构预计在2025年趋于短期 化。这主要是因为长期债券（特别是30年期债券）供应减少，且由于今年上半年表现不佳，这类债券的 吸引力有所下降。尽管德国债务整体趋势是短期化，但德国的债务发行期限结构预计将保持稳定。荷兰 和爱尔兰这两个国家可能会延长其发债期限。意大利的情 ...