由于今天美国迎来了PCE、GDP、关税违法三大超预期时刻，因此，今日的市场定价的变化很可能影响 未来，至少2025年的预期逻辑可能还是会被打破！ 其次，美国的三权分立，还真是美国的护国支柱，在这个时刻，恐怕压力一下子感觉小了不少的就是鲍 威尔，而通胀和市场不确定性风险的预期，不说马上会变，至少也将显著收敛！ 而这次大规模退税，也将直接加剧美国联邦财政赤字压力，进一步激化债务上限博弈，对本就紧张的财 政预算形成挤压，同时会导致2025年的贸易逆差不是缩小20亿，而是超2024年至少1400亿。 此外，本次关税政策被裁定违法，但特朗普并非无计可施，他可快速启用多项法定工具实现"合法加 征"。最直接的路径是301条款，以不公平贸易、知识产权侵权为由，由美国贸易代表办公室发起调查并 实施惩罚性关税，该条款司法认可度高，程序成熟，是替代原有政策的首选！ 其次是232国家安全条款，这能以钢铁、铝、半导体等产业威胁国家安全为依据，授权商务部调查后加 征关税，此前已多次适用，落地阻力极小。 实在不行，又有能力的话，特朗普还可推动国会立法，通过"对等关税"、"贸易逆差调节税"等法案，将 关税政策纳入国会授权范畴，从根源上解决合 ...

NISA Investment Advisors的Stephen Douglass表示，与关税相关的通胀中，约有三分之一的压力可能仍 将在未来几个月逐步传导至经济。这使得经济有望保持良好表现，同时令美联储在一段时间内维持按兵 不动。"我们正重新回到实现软着陆的轨道上，"他说，"劳动力市场将趋于稳定，关税通胀的最后余波 将在今年上半年传导完毕。"他预计，下半年商品通胀将降至零以下，从而为美联储在晚于市场预期的 时间点恢复降息创造空间。"我们对今年的判断是，9月和12月各降息一次。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：金十数据 在经历了令人失望的2025年之后，美国劳动力市场在新年伊始展现出了惊人的韧性。最新公布的非农就业报告超预期，不仅打消了市场对经济快速衰退的担 忧，也促使交易员们重新评估美联储的政策路径，交易员们完全定价美联储7月降息，此前预期为6月。 美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，大幅高于市场预期中值7万人，创2025年4月以来最大增幅。美国1月失业率录得4.3%，略低于市场预期的4.4%， 创2025年8月以来新低。 11月份非农新增就业人数从5.6万人修正至4.1万人；12月份非农新增就业人数从5.0万人修正至4.8万人。修正后，11月和12月新增就业人数合计较修正前低 1.7万人。 非农数据公布后，现货黄金短线一度跳水近40美元，美国国债在非农就业数据公布后全线下跌。非美货币普遍跳水，欧元兑美元短线走低超60点；英镑兑美 元短线走低超70点；美元兑日元短线拉升近百点。 就业市场的结构性改善同样明显。作为衡量潜在购买力的关键指标，平均时薪环比增长0.4%，表现强于预期；平均周工时也回升至34.3小时。此外，劳动力 参与率从62 ...

澳洲联储成为今年全球首个加息的主要货币当局，其上周发布的最新预测暗示未来几个月至少还会加息 一次。该央行目前预计，今年整体通胀率和核心通胀率都将超过其2-3%的目标上限。 澳洲联储二号人物周三在悉尼的一次炉边谈话中表示，部分物价回升"反映出经济中需求回升对抗供应 限制的潜在压力日益增大"。"如果情况属实，那么通胀高企的风险可能会持续，我们不能让这种情况发 生。" 智通财经APP获悉，澳洲联储副主席安德鲁·豪瑟(Andrew Hauser)警告称，通胀仍然"过高"，对利率制定 委员会来说仍然是一个重大挑战，委员会不能允许这种情况持续太久。豪瑟对通胀的强硬言论促使澳元 大幅上涨，这表明澳元将继续上涨，使其成为今年主要货币中表现最佳的货币。 由于生产率增长长期疲软，澳洲联储已将经济潜在增长率下调至约 2%。豪瑟说："我们必须尊重经济 的运行速度极限，因为如果央行试图让经济运行得'过快'，通胀就会加剧，而通胀是损害生产率增长的 首要问题。这就是我们对提高生产率的贡献。" 在会议的最后一个问题中，这位副主席被问及央行对政府支出的看法，政府支出被认为是导致通胀回升 的原因之一。豪瑟没有正面回答。他说："我从小就被教育，如 ...

Key Points - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell indicated that rate hikes are not a basic assumption for future actions, emphasizing the Fed's independence [1][19] - President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, pending Senate approval. However, Senate leaders from both parties have expressed intentions to block Walsh's nomination unless investigations into Powell are dropped. Analysts suggest that Walsh's leadership could lead to significant changes in Fed policy, potentially combining rate cuts with balance sheet reduction [2][20] - Walsh's nomination triggered hawkish expectations, causing a historic drop in global precious metals markets. Silver fell over 35%, gold dropped nearly 13%, and platinum and palladium also saw significant declines [3][20] - China's January manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4, reflecting reduced business activity in the construction sector [4][21] - In the U.S., durable goods orders for November 2025 increased by 5.3%, the largest growth in six months, surpassing the expected 3.7% increase. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.5%, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [5][21] - Trump stated that he is not concerned about the dollar's performance, suggesting it is returning to its appropriate level. Following his comments, the dollar index fell over 1%, reaching a nearly four-year low [6][21] Market Review Futures Market - ICE Brent crude oil rose by 7.32% to $69.83, while COMEX gold fell by 2.12% to $4907.5. The dollar index decreased by 39.01 basis points, leading to a depreciation of the yuan by 102 basis points [22][24] Stock Market - The A-share market saw a decline, with the small-cap index dropping 3.78%, while the Shanghai 50 index increased by 1.13%. The overall market sentiment has softened as the spring rally comes to an end [26][30] Bond Market - In the bond market, credit bonds generally declined, with 3Y and AA- bonds down by 7 basis points. Government bonds also saw slight declines, with 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y bonds down by 2 basis points [13][32]

【ccmn.cn摘要】国际油价大跌且市场厌恶情绪弥漫，隔夜伦锌续跌 1.53%；贵金属断崖式下跌致有色 多数品种跌停，沪锌跟跌，现货需求弱、加工企业将放假，今现锌或下跌。 基本面方面，2月锌市供需双弱。炼厂减停产叠加自然日减少，精炼锌月度产量环比减少约5万吨。锌矿 周期性供给增加正逐步落地，但受海外炼厂减产影响，矿端增产向冶炼端放量的传导节奏放缓。国内部 分锌矿冬季停产，近期华中、华北、西南地区均有锌矿进入检修，国内锌矿供应仍偏紧，锌精矿加工费 承压，制约精炼锌产出。需求端相对平稳，以存量需求为主，但临近春节，沪锌下游消费低迷。上期所 库存数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，周度锌锭库存为6.52万吨，较1月23日下降7997吨，显示消费仍具 韧性。不过，本周下游镀锌行业开工率明显下滑，企业陆续进入春节放假模式，采买需求进一步回落， 社会库存显著增加。 综合来看，市场担忧新任美联储主席的政策路径，叠加美国政府面临再次关门风险，恐慌情绪持续笼罩 锌市，价格继续承压。此外，投机客和基金撤离市场，且前期锌价大幅上涨缺乏供需基本面充分支撑， 宏观层面稍有风吹草动，价格便波动不定。淡季及春节放假导致消费低迷，现货交投清 ...

Market Overview - The recent oil market has experienced significant volatility, with prices showing both sharp increases and declines throughout the week, indicating a certain level of fragility in the current pricing environment [5][42] - Reports at the beginning of the year suggested that 2026 would be a year of oversupply, with fundamental price estimates around WTI $60 per barrel, but geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have introduced uncertainty [5][42] - The market reacted to news of potential Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz, which temporarily drove prices up before a pullback due to broader market conditions [5][42] Price Data - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up $4.81 (+7.3%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up $4.14 (+6.78%); Dubai crude futures settled at $67.86 per barrel, up $4.05 (+6.35%) [6][43] - The price movements were influenced by increased liquidity in the market due to rising gold prices and heightened geopolitical risk premiums related to US-Iran tensions [9][43] EIA Data Analysis - The EIA reported a significant decrease in crude oil inventories, with a reduction of 2.295 million barrels; production slightly declined to 13.696 million barrels per day, while imports fell by 805,000 barrels per day and exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day, leading to a net import decrease [6][24][57] - Despite the decrease in supply, downstream refined product demand remains weak, particularly outside of gasoline, indicating a mixed outlook for the oil market [6][24][57] Terminal Demand - US highway transportation activity has shown typical seasonal adjustments, with a decrease in freight volume and capacity following the peak season, indicating limited potential demand decline [30][62] - The overall transportation situation has stabilized, although winter weather poses short-term challenges [30][62] Domestic Refinery Operations - Refinery utilization rates decreased by 2.4% to 90.90%, remaining above historical averages, indicating stable operations despite the slight decline [25][59] - The processing margins for major refineries were reported at 659.83 CNY per ton, while independent refineries saw a significant drop in profitability, down 34.75% from the previous week [35][59]

【黄金期货行情表现】 美国总统特朗普周一表示，他将把进口自韩国的汽车、木材和药品的关税提高到25%，同时指责韩国的 立法机构"未能履行"两国达成的贸易协议。韩国产业通商资源部称，部长即将访问美国并与卢特尼克会 面，同时总统顾问将与相关部会召开会议，讨论因应措施。总统府则表示：美国政府尚未就可能的关税 调升发出正式通知。 美国官员周一表示，如果伊朗希望与华盛顿接触，美国将"愿意进行对话"。当被问及与伊朗谈判的条件 时，这位官员对记者说："我认为他们知道这些条件。他们清楚这些条件。" 美国核心资本财订单11月增幅超预期，显示第四季企业在设备方面的支出维持稳健增长态势。核心资本 财订单已连续第五个月增加。 1月28日，沪金主力暂报1186.20元/克，涨幅3.58%，今日沪金主力开盘价1146.80元/克，截至目前最高 1186.76元/克，最低1134.70元/克。 【机构观点】 【宏观消息】 地缘政治不确定性引发的避险需求与全球央行稳健的购金行为，推动了贵金属价格出现史诗级行情。白 银价格波动大于黄金，其工业属性使其对全球经济增长前景的预期更为敏感。在交易所持续限制投机炒 作后，白银走势转弱，需关注能否守住10 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% year-on-year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with a fourth-quarter growth of 4.5% [1][19] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries is expected to increase by 5.9%, maintaining China's position as the world's largest manufacturing sector [1][19] - The service sector's added value is anticipated to grow by 5.4%, raising its share of GDP to 57.7% [1][19] - Retail sales of consumer goods are projected to grow by 3.7%, with final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth [1][19] - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by 3.8%, with real estate development investment decreasing by 17.2% [1][19] - By the end of 2025, the national population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people [1][19] Monetary Policy - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is set at 3.00%, and the five-year LPR is at 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous month [1][19] - This marks the eighth consecutive month of stability in LPR rates following a reduction of 10 basis points in May 2025 [1][19] Market Performance Futures Market - ICE Brent crude oil rose by 2.94% to $65.44, while COMEX gold increased by 8.44% to $4,983.1 [21][22] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 186.38 basis points, leading to a significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan by 187 basis points [22] Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.54%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.34% [23][24] - The CSI 500 Index saw an increase of 4.34%, indicating a strong sentiment in the domestic market [24] Bond Market - Short-term credit bonds saw an increase, while long-term bonds experienced a decline, with the 10-year national development bond dropping by 4 basis points [29] - The overall bond rates are expected to fluctuate downwards due to significant net injections from MLF operations amid weakening economic data [29] International Relations - The Greenland crisis has seen a turnaround, with U.S. President Trump announcing a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, which could benefit the U.S. and NATO members [2][20] - The announcement led to a rise in U.S. stock indices, with all three major indices increasing by over 1% [20] Investment Outlook - The recent economic data indicates a potential rebound in China's economy, supported by relaxed real estate policies and increased birth subsidies [32] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland, may impact asset prices and macroeconomic conditions [32]

Economic Growth and Performance - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the annualized quarterly real GDP growth for Q3 2025 upward by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth since Q3 2023 and an acceleration from 3.8% in Q2 [1] - The upward revision was primarily driven by better-than-expected performance in exports and business investment, with both contributing an additional 0.2 percentage points to economic growth [3] - Business fixed investment grew by 3.2%, with investments in AI infrastructure reaching historical highs, alongside a recovery in manufacturing, which boosted non-residential investment growth [3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The core PCE price index remained at 2.9%, consistent with initial estimates, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that complicate policy decisions [4] - Personal consumption expenditures, which account for over two-thirds of the economy, grew by 3.5%, serving as a stabilizing force for economic growth [3] Structural Disparities in Economic Recovery - The economic recovery is characterized by a "K-shaped" pattern, where high-income households benefit from stock market gains and high property values, while lower-income groups face greater cost-of-living pressures [3] - Large corporations are managing to improve profit levels despite rising costs from tariffs, while small businesses are experiencing ongoing operational pressures due to profit squeezes and reduced low-cost labor supply [3] Market Outlook and Diverging Perspectives - Optimists believe that the synergy of consumption, external demand, and investment indicates strong internal economic momentum, leading to revised upward forecasts for annual economic growth [4] - Cautious analysts highlight structural issues and policy uncertainties, suggesting that the "K-shaped" recovery may exacerbate income inequality and limit sustainable consumption [4] Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The Federal Reserve must balance economic resilience with inflation targets, as core PCE trends will directly influence interest rate decisions [5] - Economic factors such as consumer spending resilience, business investment expansion, and the alleviation of the "K-shaped" recovery will reshape growth trajectories [5]