受美国消费者数据低于预期，以及美联储潜在"鸽派"主席人选影响，市场降息预期升温，推动全球股市走强，美元走软。与此同时，俄乌停火协 议的不确定性再度引发避险需求，黄金获支撑上涨。 。受加息预期推动，日本10年期国债收益率升至1.815%。尽管日本首相表示准备采取"必要"的外汇行动，日元仍疲软，日元兑美元走弱至 156.39。 美股指期货集体上涨，标普500期货涨0.36%，纳斯达克100期货涨超0.5%，道琼斯期货涨超0.2% 欧洲斯托克50指数开盘涨0.6%，德国DAX指数涨0.55%，英国富时100指数涨0.2%，法国CAC 40指数涨0.6% 日经225指数收盘涨1.8%，报49559.07点，日本东证指数收涨2%，报3355.50点，韩国首尔综指收盘涨2.7%，报3960.87点 10年期美国国债收益率上升2个基点至4.01%，日本10年期国债收益率升至1.815% 美元指数跌近0.2%，报99.73% 现货黄金上涨0.5%，至每盎司4151.21美元，现货白银涨0.89%至51.92美元/盎司，布伦特原油涨0.5%至62.1美元/桶 比特币上涨0.7%，至87647.35美元 11月26日，美股指期货 ...

格隆汇11月24日｜美国银行指出，机构资产配置呈现出"风险偏好回升"的特征，现金仓位降至3.7%的13 年低位。历史上现金仓位跌破3.7%的情况自2002年以来仅发生20次，之后1至3个月内股市通常走跌、 国债则表现相对强势，属典型的"卖出信号"。 相较之下，股票的配置明显增加，全球股票超配比例升至净34%，创2025年2月以来新高。大宗商品超 配比例也攀升至净17%，为2022年9月以来最高，成为目前机构最看好的核心资产之一。 全球机构投资者情绪出现关键转折，市场已将"软着陆"视为主流共识。调查显示，53%的基金经理认为 全球经济将顺利"软着陆"，另有37%预期出现"无着陆"的情况，创下2025 年1月以来最高比例；仅6%仍 担忧硬着陆，反映市场对经济下行的恐慌已大幅降温。同时，11月全球经济增长预期首次由负转正，为 2024年12月以来首次重回正区间，整体预期也与股市表现逐步靠拢。 ...

央广网北京11月21日消息（记者 牛谷月）11月21日，A股单边下挫，市场逾5000股下跌，锂矿方向掀跌 停潮。上证指数跌2.45%报3834.89点，失守3900点；深证成指跌3.41%；创业板指跌4.02%；北证50跌 4.71%；科创50跌3.19%。A股全天成交1.98万亿元，上日成交1.72万亿元。 浙商证券认为，综合考虑国外形势、经济周期、国内政策、资金流向、市场情绪、宽基估值等因素，对 市场保持中性乐观。展望后市，本轮"系统性'慢'牛"运行顺畅。 德邦证券认为，市场风格延续谨慎，未来一段时间，建议关注11月制造业PMI和美联储12月议息会议。 若PMI维持偏弱，市场或将进一步聚焦政策驱动的防御性板块；若美国核心PCE通胀回落超预期，则美 联储降息预期或将回升。 "这是外部冲击的传导，亟需提升我国市场的估值自信、宏扬价值投资理念。"南开大学金融发展研究院 院长田利辉在接受央广财经记者采访时指出，此次下跌受隔夜美股高台跳水驱动，纳斯达克指数大跌 2.15%，引发全球风险资产抛售。同时A股部分资金正从所谓的高估值板块向所谓的安全资产转移。 展望后市，田利辉认为，短期市场或延续震荡下行趋势，沪指3850 ...

Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment is oscillating between optimism and caution, with fund managers showing increased stock allocations while cash levels have dropped to 3.7%, triggering a "sell signal" [1][2][13] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Risks - Fund managers' stock allocation has reached its highest level since February 2025, but cash holdings have decreased, raising concerns about overly bullish positions potentially hindering risk assets [2][13] - 45% of respondents view the "AI bubble" as the biggest tail risk, a significant increase from the previous month, while 54% consider "longing the seven giants" as the most crowded trade [2][8] - 63% of respondents believe current stock market valuations are too high, indicating a growing concern about the sustainability of the market rally [4][10] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite improved macro sentiment, with 53% of investors predicting a soft landing for the economy, there are warnings about excessive corporate investment, a phenomenon not seen in 20 years [5][10] - 43% of investors see broad AI productivity improvements as the most bullish catalyst for 2026, while 26% view a slowdown in AI capital expenditure as a significant bearish factor [10][20] Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - In November, investors significantly increased allocations to healthcare (net 40% increase), emerging market stocks (net 36% increase), and bank stocks (net 36% increase) [17] - Conversely, UK stocks saw the fastest decline in allocation since October 2022, and consumer discretionary stocks experienced the largest monthly reduction since 2005 [17] Group 4: Future Expectations - Looking ahead to 2026, 42% of investors expect international stocks to be the best-performing asset class, with 30% anticipating the Japanese yen to perform best among currencies [19][20] - 45% of investors expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to be in the 4.0%-4.5% range by the end of 2026, while 34% predict gold will trade between $4000 and $4500 per ounce [20]

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The report highlights a positive macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of economic recovery driven by supportive monetary and fiscal policies in the US and globally [1][3][4] - The US economy is projected to experience a soft landing as inflation expectations have improved, with CPI growth remaining below 3.0% as of September 2025 [21][34] - Global liquidity is expected to remain accommodative, with major economies shifting focus from inflation control to growth stabilization, potentially leading to a synchronized recovery in global trade [1][3][4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Resilience - The report emphasizes the resilience of the domestic economy, with internal risk management showing positive results, particularly in addressing local government debt and stabilizing small financial institutions [2][4][6] - Consumer spending is identified as a key driver of economic growth, supported by ongoing government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][6][8] - Investment quality is expected to improve, transitioning from quantity-focused to quality-focused investments, with significant policy support anticipated in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][6][8] Group 3: Policy Environment - The macro policy outlook suggests a continuation of proactive fiscal and monetary measures, with expectations of sustained investment growth driven by major projects in 2026 [6][8][39] - Consumer subsidy policies are likely to persist, aimed at enhancing purchasing power and stimulating consumption [6][8][39] - The real estate sector is entering a monitoring phase, with potential for continued policy support if economic pressures remain [6][8][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The report maintains a positive outlook on equity markets, anticipating a gradual upward trend, with growth and cyclical sectors expected to perform well [4][6][8] - Bond markets may face constraints due to low interest rates, but opportunities for trading exist as rates decline [4][6][8] - Long-term prospects for gold remain favorable, with expectations of continued appreciation in the RMB exchange rate [4][6][8]

Market Overview - On November 12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.13%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.58%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.39%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.85% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 12 were home appliances (+1.22%), comprehensive (+1.05%), textiles and apparel (+0.87%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.84%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (+0.61%). The worst-performing sectors included electric power equipment (-2.1%), machinery (-1.23%), computers (-1.04%), defense and military (-0.87%), and automobiles (-0.81%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 12 was 19,648.13 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 4.286 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Research - The report anticipates a decreased probability of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, with more significant easing policies likely reserved for early 2026 to support a stable economic start for the year [5] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with some teams still expecting rate cuts in the fourth quarter [5] - The central bank's third-quarter report emphasizes a shift from quantity to price, and the resumption of government bond trading operations in October [5] Machinery Equipment Sector Strategy - The outlook for the machinery equipment sector is optimistic regarding the U.S. market, cautious about Europe, and focused on emerging markets [6] - For the U.S. market, reduced uncertainty around tariff policies, combined with interest rate cuts and tax reductions, is expected to support demand, while small and medium enterprises are seeing improved profitability [7] - In Europe, energy security-related demand is anticipated to boost economic activity, although recovery remains uncertain due to fiscal constraints [7] - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from stable exchange rates and orderly interest rate reductions, with some countries absorbing excess capacity and others experiencing continued urbanization and industrialization [7] - The report highlights a shift in focus for 2026's machinery export chain towards industry prosperity and micro-operational quality, seeking beneficiaries of recovery and those who can navigate trade changes [6][7]

Group 1 - The global market has entered a volatile phase, with US stock index futures declining and spot gold rising above $4000 per ounce, reflecting a shift towards defensive assets as risk appetite diminishes [1][4] - Recent positive data from the US ISM services index and ADP employment figures initially boosted investor confidence in an economic "soft landing," but concerns over high valuations in the tech sector have resurfaced, leading to a cautious market sentiment [3] - The return of risk-averse capital has made gold a focal point, with its price driven by safe-haven buying and asset allocation needs, indicating a potential structural adjustment in the market [4][8] Group 2 - The recent rise in gold prices above $4000 is attributed to a decrease in the 10-year US Treasury yield and a slight dip in the US dollar index, signaling a flow of funds into safe-haven assets [4] - The upcoming changes in domestic gold taxation and the clarification of "investment" versus "non-investment" uses are expected to enhance market liquidity and shift the industry structure towards a focus on gold recycling [5][6] - The gold recovery market is anticipated to become a crucial link between the financial and physical gold sectors, potentially influencing future price volatility [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the ADP private sector employment report for October shows a net increase of 42,000 jobs, marking the first positive growth since July 2025, and surpassing market expectations of 25,000 jobs, reversing the trend of job losses in August and September [1][2] - Job growth is concentrated in specific sectors, with education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities being the main drivers, while professional and business services, information industries, and leisure and hospitality sectors have seen job reductions for the third consecutive month [2][3] - Wage growth remains stable overall, with median annual salaries for stayers increasing by 4.5%, while job switchers experience a more significant increase of 6.7%, indicating that labor mobility still provides a premium [3][4] Group 2 - The September ADP employment data was revised from a decrease of 32,000 jobs to a decrease of 29,000 jobs, which alleviates some market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the job market [3][4] - The ADP report has gained unusual attention due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, which has prevented the release of key official employment data, but the ADP data only covers about 26 million private sector employees, compared to the broader non-farm report [4][5] - The release date for the October non-farm employment report remains uncertain due to the ongoing government shutdown, which may lead to market volatility based on private data [5]

Core Insights - The UK services PMI for October recorded at 52.3, significantly above the market expectation of 51.1, and up from 50.8 in September, indicating a return to expansion in the services sector [1] - The composite PMI rose to 52.2, also exceeding the expected 51.1, marking the strongest performance since November 2024 [1] - There is a rare "dual recovery" pattern as both manufacturing and services show improvement [1] Economic Outlook - Business expectations for the next year have reached the highest level since October 2024, driven by an increase in domestic orders and a notable improvement in business confidence [1] - The employment market shows signs of stabilization, with a significant slowdown in layoffs in the services sector and easing labor market tightness [1] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - Wage growth remains a primary source of pressure, but overall input cost inflation has dropped to the lowest level since November 2024 [1] - Companies' pricing power has weakened, with output price increases hitting a six-month low, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [1] Fiscal Policy Impact - Some corporate decisions are constrained by uncertainties surrounding fiscal policy, with several companies postponing major spending plans ahead of the UK budget announcement on November 26 [1] Economic Balance - The latest data strengthens the possibility of a "soft landing" for the UK economy, but there remains a need for careful balancing between inflation risks and growth pressures, with the monetary policy path still unclear [1]

Group 1 - Silver T+D is currently trading below 11343, with an opening price of 11410 and a current price of 11305, reflecting a decrease of 0.68% [1] - The highest price reached was 11434, while the lowest was 11211, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in the silver market [1][3] Group 2 - Cleveland Fed President Mester opposes interest rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation remains high and policy should remain restrictive [2] - Dallas Fed President Logan also stated that a rate cut this week is unnecessary unless there is a clear deterioration in inflation or employment [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 69.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.2% [2]