降息+基本面反转，重视铜、铝买入机会！20250825 摘要 美联储鸽派信号增强降息预期，叠加经济软着陆预期，流动性释放利好 以美元计价的有色金属，预计铜、铝等工业金属价格将受益于金融和商 品属性共振。 稀土总量调控管理办法正式稿发布，冶炼企业由两大集团变为指定企业， 供给收紧预期推动氧化钕镨等稀土价格上涨，需求旺季备货和出口订单 修复亦构成支撑。 铝市场基本面出现反转，LME、COMEX 库存处于历史低位，铝棒社会 库存和国内电解铝库存均连续去库，下游开工率回升，电网施工周期重 启加速提货，供需结构改善。 长期来看，全球铝供应增速因印尼项目延期和非洲减产而下降，电力和 基建需求增长，当前是长期买入机会，建议关注盈利能力与铝价同频共 振的云铝股份，预计今年盈利 70 亿元。 建筑行业季节性反转叠加电缆提货周期和下游铝板带需求回暖，将提振 铝市场，9-10 月开工率回暖和极低库存将放大铝价波动，下半年铝价或 创新高。 Q&A 美联储 9 月份降息的预期对工业金属市场有何影响？ 我们推荐了三只值得关注的股票： 1. 中国有色矿业：2024 年矿产总产量为 16 万吨，未来五年内自有矿产量 有望翻倍。今年上半年利润 ...

1. 美联储官员立场分化 鸽派声音： 美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼支持年内降息三次，并敦促9月启动降息，认为关税推动的通胀不会持续。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，若就业市场明显恶化，降息将是必然选择，并强调每次会议都有行动可能。 鹰派声音： 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克认为年内可能仅再降息一次，需观察更多数据。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德对降息持谨慎态度，认为当前无经济衰退迹象，需维持紧缩政策。 . 188 e . 9 政策背景与核心动态 2025年8月，(2q.0887hk.boats)美联储降息预期出现显著波动，9月降息概率从84%回落至68%。这一变化源于多重因素交织，包括政策制定者分歧、经济数据 混合信号及外部环境不确定性。 4. 外部环境与政策挑战 全球经济环境： 欧洲经济增长疲软，地缘政治冲突（如俄乌局势）及能源价格波动影响美国经济前景。 美元强势抑制出口竞争力，但有助于抑制进口通胀。 内部政策平衡： 美联储需在"更高更久"利率政策与经济软着陆目标间权衡。 内部对降息时机存在分歧，政策路径依赖数据表现，尤其是通胀和就业市场数据。 II 2. 经济数据呈现混合信号 3. 市场预测与概率变 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts due to signs of economic slowdown, despite ongoing inflation concerns [1][4]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience amid high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but labor market and economic growth are significantly slowing down [1][4]. - Recent labor data indicates a slowdown, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [7]. - The core consumer price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [8]. Political and Market Pressures - Powell faces immense political pressure from President Trump, who is advocating for significant rate cuts and pushing for more dovish members in the Fed [5]. - The upcoming September meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, as Powell navigates between economic challenges and political pressures [5]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices surged, with the Dow Jones reaching a new intraday high of 45,748.82 points [1]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may initiate a rate cut of 25 basis points in September, with a total reduction of approximately 100 basis points by mid-2024 [8]. Implications for Asia - A potential rate cut by the Fed could positively impact Asian economies, particularly smaller open economies that rely heavily on trade [10]. - The investment landscape in Asia may present numerous opportunities, especially in high-dividend stocks and sectors related to artificial intelligence [10].

Core Viewpoint - The August Bank of America Fund Manager Survey (FMS) indicates a significant improvement in investor sentiment, reaching a six-month high, driven by optimism regarding AI's impact on productivity and expectations of a "soft landing" for the global economy [1][3][7] Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Economic Outlook - 68% of respondents expect a "soft landing" for the global economy, with only 5% anticipating a "hard landing," the lowest since January [9] - The net overweight ratio for equities has risen for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 14%, the highest in six months [4] - Optimism regarding future interest rate cuts has reached its highest point since December 2024 [11] Group 2: AI and Productivity - 55% of fund managers believe AI has already begun to enhance productivity, a significant increase from 42% in July [5][16] - Despite the optimism, there is a divide regarding AI stocks, with 52% believing they are not in a bubble, while 41% think otherwise [18] Group 3: Emerging Markets and China - There is a notable shift in asset allocation towards emerging markets, with the net overweight ratio for emerging market stocks rising from 22% to 37%, the highest since February 2023 [21] - A net 11% of respondents expect the Chinese economy to strengthen, the highest level since March 2025 [23] Group 4: Cryptocurrency and Gold - Interest in cryptocurrencies remains low, with only 9% of respondents holding them, and an average allocation of just 3.2% among holders [27] - Gold also sees limited interest, with 48% of investors holding it, but an overall average allocation of only 2.2% [30]

Employment Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking a deviation of 1 standard deviation[3] - The previous month's job figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the past two months, the largest since June 2020[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, higher than the expected 4.2% and the previous 4.117%, the highest level since November 2021[3] Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have become the largest contributors to U.S. non-farm employment, with healthcare jobs up 13% compared to December 2019[3] - In July, the education and healthcare sector added 79,000 jobs according to non-farm data, while the ADP data showed a decrease of 38,000 jobs, indicating a divergence between the two reporting methods[3] - Other sectors, such as federal government and temporary assistance services, continue to see job losses, highlighting a weak employment growth in various industries[3] Data Revision Insights - The significant downward revision of previous non-farm data is attributed to a recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors by the BLS, rather than political motivations[3] - The feedback rates for May's non-farm data were 93.5% and 94.4%, yet the second revision still showed a decrease of 125,000 jobs, indicating potential issues in data collection and reporting[3] Market Implications - Short-term data fluctuations may increase asset price volatility, necessitating a focus on mid-term narratives such as the ongoing accommodative monetary policy and the challenges facing the U.S. dollar's credibility[2] - Risks include unexpected policy shifts from the Trump administration, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 185,000, marking the lowest level since December 2023 [2] - Three major sectors showed notable declines: retail sector layoffs of 12,000 (seasonally adjusted), a reduction of 34,000 temporary jobs indicating corporate contraction, and zero job growth in government sectors reflecting peak fiscal spending [3] - The market reacted sharply with a 15 basis point drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a 2% short-term jump in gold prices, and a mixed performance in the S&P 500 as investors bet on earlier interest rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Despite the employment slowdown, hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month (annualized at 4.8%), creating a paradox of wage inflation against the backdrop of a cooling job market [4] - The report highlights the delayed effects of interest rate hikes and suggests that the policy debate is entering a more complex phase, as the narrative of a "soft landing" faces challenges from the data [4] - The market is advised to prepare for greater volatility as the economic indicators present conflicting signals regarding the labor market and inflation risks [4]

罗素投资：美国劳动力市场的温和疲软支持经济软着陆预测 德意志银行：7月份美国经济活动增强支撑美元上涨 S&P Global Market Intelligence：英国制造业初步释放积极信号但谨慎情绪犹存 【机构分析】 德意志银行分析指出，7月份美国经济活动的增强为美元提供了支撑，推动美元指数创下显著涨幅。市 场对美国经济增长前景持乐观态度，增强了美元吸引力。7月份美元指数上涨了3.19%，这是自2022年4 月以来的最大单月涨幅。 S&P Global Market Intelligence分析师指出，英国制造业开始释放一些初步的积极信号。由于企业面临的 劳动力成本上升，该行业的就业指标再次下降，预计未来几个月内就业岗位可能进一步受到影响。在英 国财政大臣秋季发布新的年度税收和支出计划之前，制造商可能会保持谨慎态度。随着英国央行预计将 在下周审议降息事宜，其将评估通胀压力的持续状况及就业市场的疲软程度，以确定货币政策的走向。 汉堡商业银行经济学家指出，尽管法国7月PMI数值小幅上升，但订单量与商业信心的急剧恶化表明， 法国制造业在下半年开局即面临显著压力，经济前景已明显转弱。 分析指出，欧元区7月消费者物价 ...

费视镜 信守承诺 锌:资金积极计价政策影响,锌价何去何从 点有成金 近期锌价向上突破区间盘整,但进一步上行空间受限,下跌节奏亦不顺畅,资金倾向落袋为安,沪锌持仓 拥挤度持续下降，短期方向性信号不足，本文梳理重点问题，以厘清后市交投节奏。 但是海内外矿山增量如期兑现,国内铅锌矿山扩产、复产产能继续落地，冶炼厂原料库存不缺，在硫酸等 副产品价格高企的背景下,国内冶炼厂主动补库。关税问题导致消费前置,叠加传统谈季影响,基本面进一步 转向供增需弱,缺乏消费有力支撑情况下,沪锌在2.3万整数关暂承压。 r 锌市行情回顾 随着美国极端关税避延的逐步落地,市场恐慌情绪修复,关税对商品价格的影响不断降低,在铜、铝等有 色品种陆续回补清明跳空缺口后，近期在国内"反内卷"的乐观氛围中,沪锌打破低位盘整,亦完成了对清明 跳空缺口的修复。虽然美国经济数据表现出经济软着陆预期,但特朗普反复敦促美联储降息,市场对于通胀预 期仍有一定计价,对锌价也形成一定支撑。 二、 锌期限结构从"B"逐步转"C"意味着什么? 沪锌逐步转向正向市场，表明基本面由强转弱被计价日渐充分,弱现实、弱预期下,期限结构偏平,这种 结构下做空的收益空间变窄,但移仓亏 ...

近期，贵金属市场上演着轮涨行情，自6月之后，白银市场出现一波猛涨，现货白银价格一度超过每盎 司39美元，触及14年以来的新高。截至目前，白银年内涨幅达到33%，已经超过了黄金的27%。 "近期，黄金上涨幅度较为温和，而白银出现大幅上涨，说明白银的上涨并非两者共性因素，而是在于 区分两者的商品属性。"王彦青认为，本轮白银上涨行情的启动来源于7月初，而彼时美国减税法案获得 通过，这一法案本质上是一种财政刺激，市场对后续经济转好的预期升温，支撑白银商品属性，给白银 带来较强支撑。 长期来看，王彦青表示，全球冲突的环境难以逆转，美国债务仍在持续积累，地区性的地缘政治冲突频 发，"去美元化"正在持续推进，将持续给白银支撑，白银仍处在长牛行情中。 中短期来看，王彦青则预计会有三个因素扰动白银走势。一是关税政策不确定性减弱之下，白银避险属 性支撑弱化；二是美国减税法案进入政策执行期，短期或能为美国经济带来提振作用，利于白银商品属 性；三是美联储货币政策趋于宽松，将给白银带来支撑，总体来看白银涨势或有所放缓。 中粮期货上海北外滩营业部副总监李伊瑶对新华财经表示，近期白银价格大幅上涨，而黄金同期涨幅相 对温和，主要因为市场对贵 ...

（一）6 月海外市场主线？美国"金发女郎"交易再起，伊以、关税风波阶段性扰动 宏 观 研 究 宏观"月月谈"系列之八 2025 年 07 月 13 日 关税效应进入"数据验证期" —— 7 月宏观月报 6 月，海外市场再现"金发女郎"交易，国内市场情绪也在经济的温和复苏中持续提振。随着 关税效应的逐步显现，滞胀预期如何验证、市场交易的主线如何切换？本文分析，供参考。 一、宏观月报：关税效应进入"数据验证期" 国内方面，反内卷或仍是核心聚焦；政策或通过供需端总量调控、结合产业结构转型升级。1） 总量层面，破解"内卷"困境重点或在缓解供需矛盾。2）结构方面，或主要通过政策引导、 行业自律等推动供给创新升级。经济数据，聚焦服务业景气的接力与出口数据的验证。 6 月以来，"金发女郎"交易再度成为海外市场的主线。原因有三方面：1）《美丽大法案》推 进顺利、并在 7 月 4 日成功落地，打消了市场前期对"法案推进受阻"、"X-date 临近"等担 忧；2）5 月通胀数据低于预期，降息空间边际打开。3）经济温和走弱，但就业数据韧性十足。 伊以冲突一度引发市场的阶段性担忧，关税风暴虽再度来袭、但市场反应相对平淡。1）伊以 冲 ...