Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry focus, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among policies and market mechanisms [31]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights that the biggest expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [21]. - It mentions that the focus of tariffs may shift towards validating economic data, with potential concerns about recession if the U.S. unemployment rate rises to 4.6% [21]. - The impact of geopolitical risks, particularly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is noted as a significant factor in global macroeconomic conditions and asset pricing [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction in research [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, which is gaining more attention from both the government and industry, with a broader scope and stronger coordination [31].

致投资者 研究是在持续迭代的过程中不断逼近真相，是一项"久久为功"的工作，只有永不停步的否定 与重构，才能不断成长。作为研究型团队，我们始终坚守初心，坚持研究为本、求真务实、勤勉 服务、敬畏市场。 2025年是团队全面升级的一年，在新的征程中，我们推进了研究框架的体系重构、研究成果 的系统展示，秉持"研之有理、落地有声"的理念，致力于提供真正有价值的独立研究成果。 感谢您一直以来的支持与信任，让我们共同进步，共创未来！ 赵伟 敬上 2025.8.16 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 经济学博士，同时担任中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员、中国首席经济学家论坛理事等社会职务。2023 年7月6日，应邀参加李强总理经济形势座谈会。 曾获沪上金融家"金融行业创新人物"、服务经济高质量发展最佳首席经济学家等称号；曾获新财富最佳分析师、 水晶球最佳分析师、金牛奖最具价值首席分析师等行业奖项。 代表作《转型之机》、《蜕变·新生》等，系统阐释了中国经济转型阶段的特征与机遇，为理论研究与实务操作 提供重要支持。 申万宏源宏观首席分析师 复旦大学经济学博士、曼彻斯特大学访问学者，曾任国金证券宏观首席分析师、东方证券财富管理总 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global landscape is changing, and there are four main lines to grasp these changes: international currency, asset prices, modern industries, and trade markets, all closely related to the rise of Asia represented by China [1] - The capital market changes are characterized by the rise of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by the "four bulls" which include capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade [1]

Core Insights - The recent revision of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which erased 910,000 jobs, indicates potential manipulation, suggesting that half of the 1.8 million jobs added last year may have been fabricated [2][4] - Employment and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are identified as the two most critical indicators of the U.S. economy, with the recent data revision raising concerns about a possible recession [4][11] - Historical patterns show that the U.S. often engages in global interventions during economic downturns, with past examples including military actions and financial crises [5][7] Economic Indicators - The non-farm payroll data is crucial as it reflects the ability of Americans to consume, which is foundational to the U.S. economy [4] - The recent downward revision of employment data suggests a significant deterioration in economic conditions, potentially leading to a recession [2][4] Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 is anticipated to result in interest rate cuts, a common response to signs of recession [4][8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for the Fed to include long-term interest rates in its responsibilities indicates a shift towards Yield Curve Control (YCC) to manage national debt interest payments [8][10] Global Implications - The potential for the U.S. to print an additional $4 trillion to purchase government bonds could lead to a significant increase in global liquidity, impacting international markets [8][10] - The relationship between U.S. economic policies and Japan's financial strategies is highlighted, suggesting that Japan may be pressured to buy U.S. debt following recent agreements [10] Market Reactions - The revision of employment data and anticipated Fed actions have contributed to a surge in international gold prices, reflecting investor concerns over U.S. economic stability [8][10] - The potential for a "stagflation" scenario in the U.S. could open up opportunities for other markets, particularly in real estate and monetary policy adjustments in China [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrade for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, leading to a rebalancing of global funds [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical tensions influencing market narratives [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. foreign policy and trade dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, highlighting potential economic bifurcation and investment opportunities in technology sectors due to shifting geopolitical landscapes [2][5][11]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is experiencing a shift, with China taking a more dominant role in negotiations compared to previous years [2][5]. - The potential for a "tariff spiral" is noted, drawing parallels to historical events in the 1930s, which could impact global trade and economic conditions [1][5]. - The U.S. currently accounts for 27% of global consumption, with strong performance in the Nasdaq indicating robust corporate earnings [6][20]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The demand for AI technologies is experiencing exponential growth, benefiting U.S. tech giants and potentially impacting A-shares in sectors like optical modules [2][20]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" in China emphasizes investment in technology, with high demand for computing power, servers, and semiconductors expected to persist throughout the year [2][18]. - The article suggests a focus on defensive asset classes such as bonds and utility stocks, as well as sectors related to security and technology, in light of geopolitical tensions [8][11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The article indicates that corporate profitability may face deflationary pressures due to increased costs from tariffs and trade restrictions [8][11]. - The overall economic environment is characterized by high volatility and structural rotation, suggesting a need for strategic investment approaches [8][11]. - The anticipated return of capital to the U.S. markets is expected to favor domestic technology and debt markets, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" objectives [18][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - In Q1 2025, Bridgewater significantly reduced its U.S. equity exposure while increasing allocations to gold and China, following the All Weather strategy to hedge against macro uncertainties and systemic risks [1][21]. - This adjustment aligns with Dalio's long - term debt cycle framework, as the U.S. is in the late stage of high debt and fiscal deterioration, while China is in an earlier phase with stronger growth potential and debt resilience [1][4][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Overall Position Adjustment in Q1 2025 - Bridgewater's total portfolio value edged down slightly from USD 21.8 billion in Q4 2024 to USD 21.6 billion in Q1 2025. The portfolio structure shifted significantly with a "East Rising, West Declining" trend, cutting U.S. stocks and adding gold and Chinese assets [6][22]. - It加仓 283 stocks, newly built positions in 123 stocks, while reducing positions in 252 stocks and liquidating 150 stocks. The proportion of the top ten holdings in the portfolio value dropped from 43.2% in the previous quarter to 31.8%, showing a more diversified portfolio [6]. 2. Top 10 Buys - Bridgewater made significant purchases of Alibaba, increasing its holdings by 2120% to 566 million shares, making it the largest single - stock holding and the fourth - largest holding overall. Alibaba's stock price rose 56% in Q1 [8]. - Newly built a position in SPDR Gold TR (GLD), with a purchase of over 1.1 million shares, making it the sixth - largest holding, which reflects the need to hedge against inflation and currency risks. The gold ETF rose nearly 19% in Q1 [9]. - Also significantly increased holdings in Baidu (+188 million shares), Pinduoduo (+50 million shares), and newly built a position in JD.com (about 278.7 million shares). It also slightly increased holdings in NIO and other Chinese concept stocks, and significantly increased the allocation of iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (IEMG) [10]. - Increased allocations to the financial and cyclical sectors, newly building positions in Goldman Sachs, Chubb, Bank of America, Citigroup, etc., making the financial sector the second - largest holding sector, with the weight increasing by 4.8% compared to the previous quarter [11]. 3. Top 10 Sells - Significantly reduced the position of SPDR S&P 500 ETF TR (SPY) by nearly 60%, with the holding value decreasing by about USD 2.85 billion, and the portfolio weight dropping from 22% in Q4 2024 to less than 9% [12]. - Reduced positions in large - cap technology stocks such as Google A, NVIDIA, Meta, etc., with reduction ranges between 15% - 30%. It also almost liquidated some small - and medium - sized growth stocks such as AppLovin and Robinhood [12]. - Reduced positions in healthcare companies such as Mckesson, Merck & CO, etc., and liquidated Eli Lilly, Modernam, etc. Also liquidated many stocks in the semiconductor and consumer discretionary sectors [13]. 4. Industry and Asset Allocation Changes - The industry allocation shifted from a highly concentrated technology sector to a more balanced allocation across multiple sectors such as finance and consumption, showing a more defensive and diversified trend [14]. - The proportion of commodity allocation increased, with the introduction of gold ETFs significantly increasing the proportion of precious metals in the portfolio [15]. - The financial sector became the third - largest weighted sector in Bridgewater's portfolio, with the allocation proportion increasing by 4.8% compared to Q4 2024 [15]. - The weight of the technology sector decreased relatively. Bridgewater reduced positions in some technology giants and growth stocks but still slightly increased positions in some companies with reasonable valuations or stable businesses [15]. - The medical sector was cut the most, with Bridgewater liquidating biotech companies such as Modernam due to high valuations and an unfavorable macro - environment [15]. - The consumer discretionary and other cyclical sectors showed differentiation. Bridgewater sold some consumer discretionary stocks but newly built positions in airline stocks [16]. 5. Principles Behind the Position Adjustment - Bridgewater's core investment framework is based on a long - term global macro perspective and diversified hedging. The All Weather strategy proposed in 1996 aims to build resilient portfolios. The significant increase in gold holdings reflects the principle of diversified hedging [3][17][23]. - Dalio's long - term debt cycle theory is an important basis for this position adjustment. The U.S. is in the "pre - civil war stage" of high debt and fiscal deterioration, while China is in a more favorable stage. Bridgewater's adjustment is a forward - looking layout for the "East Rising, West Declining" trend [4][18][24]. - Dalio warned about the high valuation of technology stocks, and Bridgewater reduced its technology stock allocation to avoid risks and shifted funds to more defensive or low - correlated assets [19].

Group 1 - The recent relaxation of QDII product subscription limits indicates a significant response to investor demand, with at least 25 products reopening for subscriptions or adjusting large subscription limits in the past month [1][2][3] - QDII products have shown strong performance this year, with over 90% of equity products reporting positive returns since the beginning of the year, and 10 products achieving returns exceeding 50% [1][5][6] - The performance divergence between Hong Kong and US stocks is notable, with Hong Kong-focused QDII products performing well, while those heavily invested in US stocks are under pressure [1][7][8] Group 2 - A new round of QDII quotas has been approved, with 191 financial institutions receiving a total of $170.87 billion in investment quotas, including an increase of $3.08 billion [3][4] - The number of fund companies benefiting from the new QDII quotas has increased to 44, with significant allocations to various funds, including those focused on Hong Kong stocks [4][5] - The total market size of QDII funds reached approximately 654.28 billion yuan by the end of May, reflecting a growth of nearly 43 billion yuan since the end of last year [5][6] Group 3 - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations of structural upward movement driven by policy support, capital inflows, and valuation recovery [8][9] - Investment strategies are expected to focus on technology, innovation pharmaceuticals, and high-dividend assets, forming a "barbell strategy" [8][9] - The overall sentiment suggests that while Hong Kong stocks may continue to perform well, US stocks face uncertainties due to Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks [7][8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the global economic outlook and China's economic strategies, particularly in the context of trade wars and asset allocation strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Outlook**: The report describes a "rise of the East and decline of the West" scenario, emphasizing the need for constructing external circulation and fostering a resilient supply chain [6][7][8]. 2. **China's Economic Position**: China is recognized as a core player in global trade and supply chains, having become the largest trading partner for many regions including Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe [11]. 3. **Trade War Consequences**: The U.S. trade war is characterized as a shortsighted policy that undermines global development and domestic purchasing power, ultimately leading to a loss of public support [15][17]. 4. **Economic Challenges and Highlights**: The report identifies four challenges for the Chinese economy, including the stabilization of the real estate market and the need to prevent excessive competition in manufacturing. Conversely, it highlights five positive trends such as the expansion of fiscal policy and the development of green manufacturing [6][8]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategies**: The report suggests three main lines for asset allocation in the second half of the year, focusing on the resilience of the economy, responses to trade wars, and the potential for A-shares to rise [6][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Domestic Market Construction**: Emphasis on accelerating the establishment of a unified domestic market to address consumption and income issues, particularly in light of population decline [66]. 2. **Globalization vs. De-globalization**: The report discusses the historical context of globalization and the current challenges posed by de-globalization, suggesting that China is leading a new wave of globalization [69]. 3. **Investment in Human Capital**: The need for policies that invest in human capital to counteract the challenges of a declining population is highlighted as a critical area for future focus [66]. 4. **Long-term Economic Goals**: The report sets a target for achieving a 5% GDP growth for the year, supported by policy initiatives and internal economic dynamics [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the insights regarding the global and domestic economic landscape, as well as strategic recommendations for asset allocation.