Report Overview - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cotton planting progress is advancing steadily, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are fluctuating within a narrow range. The spot cotton price has declined, the cotton yarn market is sluggish, and the cotton fabric market is also weak. The downstream market is in a weak state, and the finished - product inventory is gradually accumulating. The current market lacks driving forces, and Zhengzhou cotton is mainly in a narrow - range adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,113 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for cotton in different regions of Xinjiang vary. The cotton yarn market has a dull trading atmosphere, with some spinning enterprises not yet resumed work. The cotton fabric market has weak sales, with few inquiries from traders, and the inventory of regular varieties is increasing [7]. - **Market Situation**: During the holiday, the macro - environment changed little, and the market is still concerned about tariff trends. In the overseas market, US cotton signing was okay in the week of April 24, and shipments increased month - on - month. The US cotton planting progress is slightly behind schedule, and the drought level is higher year - on - year. In the domestic market, there was cooling, rainfall, and snow in major cotton - planting areas in Xinjiang, but the overall impact is currently small. The downstream market is weak, and the finished - product inventory is accumulating slowly. The current futures market lacks driving forces, and Zhengzhou cotton is mainly in a narrow - range adjustment [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of April 24, 2024/2025, the net signing of US cotton was 27,600 tons (month - on - month increase of 2,700 tons, year - on - year decrease of 15,400 tons). The cumulative signing this year is 2.579 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48,600 tons. The cumulative signing accounts for 108.7% of the export forecast (April USDA), a year - on - year increase of 6 percentage points and an increase of 4.2 percentage points compared to the five - year average [9]. - **US Cotton Shipment**: The shipment of US cotton was 83,900 tons (month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons, year - on - year increase of 22,200 tons). The cumulative shipment this year is 1.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons. The shipment progress is 77%, a year - on - year increase of 5 percentage points and an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the five - year average [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton contract spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [17][18][20][24][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The GDP in Q1 increased by 5.4% year - on - year, significantly higher than the annual target of 5%. Although the economic data in March improved notably, the bond market's focus remained on the tariff situation. The market was in a sideways state, and ultra - long bonds slightly retraced [1][11][38]. - The recent intensification of global trade frictions has led to significant shocks in global capital markets, increasing the downward pressure on the global economy. Short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain strong, and the bond market is likely to oscillate with an upward bias [2][3][12][13]. - However, the term spread of 30 - year treasury bonds is extremely low, and the term spread protection is limited. The credit spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is also at a historically low level, with limited credit spread protection [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - Ultra - long Bond Recap - In terms of trading, the trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week, but it was still relatively active. In terms of spreads, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the credit spread remained flat [1][11]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of April 18, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 25BP, at a historically low level. Considering domestic economic data, inflation, and global economic conditions, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the term spread protection is limited [2][12]. - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of April 18, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to 30 - year treasury bonds, considering various factors, the bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but the credit spread protection is limited [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The outstanding balance of ultra - long bonds exceeded 20.7 trillion. By type, local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was relatively large. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly. By type, local government bonds had the largest issuance volume. By term, the 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [19]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 172.9 billion yuan, including 121 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 49.9 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was relatively active, but the trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week. The trading volume and proportion of various types of ultra - long bonds decreased to different extents [28][29]. Yield - Due to the market's focus on tariffs, the market was in a sideways state, and ultra - long bonds slightly retraced. The yields of different - term ultra - long bonds of various types changed to different extents [38]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, but the absolute level was low. - Credit Spread: The credit spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, and the absolute level was low [45][51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2506, closed at 119.70 yuan, up 0.14%. The total trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the open interest increased slightly [53].