（文章来源：证券时报） 2025年加密货币市场上演极致震荡，走出"过山车"行情。比特币作为风向标，在10月创下12.62万美元 的历史新高后，随后仅一个月时间便俯冲至8.46万美元，跌幅近30%。以太坊及主流山寨币同步剧烈波 动。行情起伏背后是美联储政策预期变动、全球贸易摩擦和美国监管法案落地等因素所致。 ...

比特币在今年10月创下超12.61万美元的历史新高后，随后仅一个月时间便俯冲至8.46万美元。 2025年加密货币市场上演极致震荡，走出"过山车"行情。比特币作为风向标，在10月创下12.62万美元 的历史新高后，随后仅一个月时间便俯冲至8.46万美元，跌幅近30%。以太坊及主流山寨币同步剧烈波 动。行情起伏背后是美联储政策预期变动、全球贸易摩擦和美国监管法案落地等因素所致。 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月26日，近期数字资产市场阴云密布，ZFX山海证券表示，加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数已连续14天陷 入"极度恐惧"区间。截至12月26日，该指数进一步下滑至20分，这不仅反映了自12月13日以来持续低迷 的投资氛围，更是该指数自2018年发布以来最长的一段低谷期。尽管当前比特币价格仍维持在8.8万美 元上方，远高于2022年末的水平，但市场情绪的脆弱程度却已超过了当年的FTX危机时期。 受宏观政策不确定性影响，市场正面临多重压力。ZFX山海证券认为，对全球贸易摩擦引发的关税担忧 是导致10月以来市场蒸发近5000亿美元市值的核心诱因。同时，美联储在2026年第一季度的货币政策动 向成为悬在投资者头上的达摩克利斯之剑。分析人士指出，若美联储选择暂停降息以应对通胀压力，比 特币价格可能面临下探至7万美元的风险。目前，比特币较10月初的峰值已回落近30%，市场波动性与 交易量的双重下滑进一步印证了情绪的冰点。 在散户参与度方面，ZFX山海证券表示，谷歌搜索量、维基百科词条浏览量以及社交媒体的讨论热度均 已降至熊市水平。这种"离场感"主要源于加密本土散户在经历多次市场波动与杠杆清 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs has significantly raised domestic aluminum procurement prices, with spot prices soaring to $4,800 per ton, reflecting an increase of over 40% since the tariff hike [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Prices - In June, the U.S. raised aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, leading to a spike in domestic aluminum prices [1]. - The Midwest U.S. aluminum spot premium rose from $794 per ton on June 6 to $1,548.9 per ton by June 13, marking an increase of over 95% within a week [1]. - The aluminum spot premium in the Midwest has increased by 286.5% compared to prices before the first round of tariff hikes in February [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Inventory - The inventory of aluminum products has been depleted due to pre-tariff "import rush," leading to renewed price increases [2]. - LME aluminum and COMEX aluminum price differentials have not materialized due to higher domestic recycled aluminum usage in the U.S. [2]. - LME aluminum inventory has been declining, influenced by reduced acceptance of Russian aluminum and increased demand for alternative sources [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Aluminum Prices - Several factors are driving the strength in aluminum prices, including low valuations of aluminum relative to copper, supply disruptions in overseas electrolytic aluminum production, and concerns over future electricity supply for aluminum production [4]. - The macroeconomic environment is generally optimistic, with expectations of liquidity improvements and fiscal expansion in the U.S. [4]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Outlook - Basic supply constraints, such as limited power supply and high costs, are hindering the recovery of smelting capacity, while new capacity additions are slow [5]. - The aluminum market is currently balanced, with no significant supply shortages, but the domestic market is transitioning from a consumption peak to a low season [6]. - Short-term aluminum prices are considered high, with potential for a correction, while supply increases are likely in the coming year [7].

Core Points - The Bank of Canada has lowered its key overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the lowest level since July 2022, marking the fourth rate cut in 2025 [1] - The central bank aims to mitigate the impact of U.S. trade policy adjustments on the Canadian economy while keeping inflation around the 2% target [1] - The Bank of Canada's latest economic forecast shows a significant reduction in GDP growth projections, with 2025's real GDP growth rate revised down from 1.8% to 1.2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada expects the overall inflation rate for 2025 to be 2.0%, down from a previous forecast of 2.3%, with 2026 and 2027 remaining at 2.1% [2] - The central bank has noted that oil price declines and the cancellation of carbon taxes will temporarily lower the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - Despite the easing measures, the central bank emphasizes the limitations of monetary policy in addressing structural damages caused by trade wars [2][3] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Canadian dollar strengthened, and market pricing indicates that investors do not expect further rate cuts before March 2026 [2] - The yield on Canadian 2-year government bonds rose by 5.2 basis points to 2.406% [2] Financial Stability - The Bank of Canada plans to resume purchasing short-term government bonds in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a focus on financial stability [3] - The central bank acknowledges significant regional differences in the housing market and discusses potential financial stability impacts [3] - The central bank warns that current stock valuations appear "overvalued" based on multiple indicators [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but be wary of the repetition of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will continue to support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to turn into a fluctuating trend. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term. The prices of various commodities in different industries are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, government shutdowns, production capacity, inventory, and policy changes, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices; the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will support the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term, but the physical tightness in London needs to be noted [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term global trade frictions are repeated, copper price fluctuations intensify. The continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - liquidity are expected to drive the copper price to continue to operate strongly [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The alumina production capacity is continuously released, and the production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Pay attention to the cost support recently [1]. - **Zinc**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Sino - US trade frictions have slightly eased, and the Fed rate cut expectation at the end of the month remains high. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in the fourth quarter. The nickel price may be dominated by the macro situation and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - inventory suppression. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium and long term [1]. Chemical Industry - **Polysilicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. The production plan in October has increased unexpectedly. Organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - **Other Chemicals**: For various chemicals such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, ES, LPG, etc., their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, market demand, and international market conditions, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Black Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coils are unclear, and the valuations are low. It is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month of iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward potential. The supply of silicon iron and glass is in excess, and the prices are under pressure. The price of coal and coke may fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to the new提法 of "anti - involution" in the domestic major meeting communique [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Grains**: For palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, etc., the market is affected by factors such as international trade policies, production areas' supply and demand, and inventory. The market is in a state of multiple - factor entanglement, and different trading strategies are recommended [1]. - **Cotton and Sugar**: The short - term domestic cotton price is likely to fluctuate widely, and the market may face pressure in the long term. The raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to have limited rebound space, and the idea of selling at high prices is maintained [1]. - **Corn and Soybean Meal**: The selling pressure of US soybeans suppresses the US market price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by Sino - US trade policies and supply - demand relationships, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1]. Energy and Others - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are affected by factors such as OPEC + production increase, seasonal demand changes, and US tariff policies, showing a fluctuating trend. The prices of other products such as BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are also affected by multiple factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market demand [1]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping price has fallen to a relatively low level, with the possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by increased risk aversion due to credit fraud issues at Zions Bancorp, raising concerns about the stability of the financial system [1][4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have strengthened, alongside escalating global trade tensions, further fueling demand for gold [1][5] Market Performance - As of October 21, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) has risen by 2.40%, with a latest price of 9.47 yuan, and a 1-week cumulative increase of 4.64% as of October 20, 2025 [1] - The gold ETF has seen a turnover of 0.5% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 1.99 billion yuan, and an average daily transaction of 34.65 billion yuan over the past week, ranking among the top three comparable funds [1] Institutional Analysis - Short-term dynamics indicate that the regional bank risk event has exposed vulnerabilities in the U.S. credit market, accelerating the inflow of risk-averse capital into gold [4] - Long-term trends show that global central banks continue to purchase gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings, alongside geopolitical conflicts and expectations of interest rate cuts enhancing gold's investment value [5] Fund Inflows - The gold ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 11 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.155 billion yuan, totaling 5.544 billion yuan in net inflows, averaging 504 million yuan per day [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term stock index is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations, US government shutdown, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, showing different trends [1]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to continued fermentation of copper supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate, with alumina facing weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are supported by short - term export windows, while nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and supply - demand conditions [1]. - Tin prices have long - term opportunities for bottom - fishing due to supply risks and demand support [1]. - Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1]. - Black metal prices are generally volatile, with supply - demand contradictions and seasonal impacts [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical situations, and demand seasons [1]. - Shipping freight rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong and volatile, beware of tariff policy fluctuations, focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1]. - Gold: High - level decline due to Sino - US trade easing, but expected to be volatile due to factors such as US government shutdown and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Silver: High - level decline, short - term short - side volatile, pay attention to physical tightness in London [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to remain strong due to supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum: Fundamentals are mixed, price expected to fluctuate [1]. - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, pay attention to cost support [1]. - Zinc: Supported by short - term export windows, but subsequent disturbances still exist [1]. - Nickel: Short - term macro - dominated volatility, high - inventory suppression exists [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term volatility, pay attention to short - term trading opportunities [1]. - Tin: Long - term bottom - fishing opportunities due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Chemical products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production resumes, polycrystalline silicon production increases in October, organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Supply increases and demand decreases in October, policy impact fades [1]. Black metals - Steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil): Industry drivers are unclear, valuation is low, not recommended for directional trading [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Others (such as coking coal, coke, glass, soda ash): Generally volatile, facing supply - demand contradictions and price pressure [1]. Agricultural products - Vegetable oils (such as palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels, with different trading suggestions [1]. - Grains and oilseeds (such as corn, soybean meal): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand, and weather, with corresponding outlooks [1]. - Others (such as cotton, sugar, pulp, etc.): Different price trends and trading strategies based on their own fundamentals [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: Bearish due to OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical cooling, demand off - season, and US tariff threats [1]. - Other energy - related products (such as LPG, etc.): Affected by various factors and showing different price trends [1]. - Chemical products (such as ethylene glycol, styrene, etc.): Affected by supply - demand, inventory, and production factors [1]. Others - Shipping: Container shipping rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. - Livestock: Pig prices are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalance [1].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in PVC futures prices is primarily driven by fundamental factors such as increased supply, unmet demand expectations, and export restrictions, rather than just the impact of rising trade friction expectations [1] Supply Pressure - Following supply-side reforms, the entry barriers in the PVC market have significantly increased, leading to a controlled capacity growth of around 5% in recent years. However, in 2025, the expansion pressure is expected to surge with over 2 million tons of new capacity planned, marking the highest expansion pressure in a decade [4] - New production facilities have been launched, including 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Bay and 250,000 tons/year from Xinpu Chemical in the first half of the year. Additional facilities are set to come online in the second half, including 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 600,000 tons/year from Fujian Wanhua [4] - The operating rate of PVC production has significantly increased post-maintenance season, reaching over 80% in early October, with weekly production surpassing 500,000 tons for the first time [4] Weak Demand - The traditional peak demand season for PVC, known as "Golden September and Silver October," has shown a marked decline in recent years. Approximately 80% of PVC demand is linked to the real estate and infrastructure sectors, which have been underperforming [5] - From January to September, China's real estate development investment was 78,680 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, with various construction metrics also showing significant declines [5] - The overall operating rate for PVC downstream is currently at 40%, which, despite a 17 percentage point increase post-National Day, remains significantly lower than historical levels [5] Export Challenges - The domestic PVC market has faced a significant supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping to a global low, closing the import window while opening the export window. However, exports are now facing severe challenges due to macroeconomic policies [6] - Since the outbreak of global trade friction in April, PVC export volumes have declined. India has raised anti-dumping duties on Chinese products, complicating export efforts [6] - India accounts for about 45% of China's PVC exports, and the implementation of BIS certification by the end of the year could drastically reduce export volumes, exacerbating domestic supply-demand issues [6] Cost Support - The PVC industry has been in a prolonged downturn, with companies facing losses. The latest losses for externally sourced acetylene-based PVC are nearing 800 yuan/ton [7] - Most PVC producers utilize integrated chlor-alkali facilities, where profits from caustic soda have historically offset PVC production losses. However, recent declines in caustic soda prices have compressed profits, leading to a combined loss of 45 yuan/ton for PVC and caustic soda [7] - If losses persist, production rates may decrease, potentially enhancing cost support for PVC [7] Overall Market Outlook - The current global trade friction and fundamental market conditions are creating a bearish outlook for PVC prices, which have reached a 10-year low. However, the combination of PVC and caustic soda losses may strengthen cost support, and potential policy interventions in the chemical industry could limit further price declines [9] - If "anti-involution" policies are effectively implemented, there may be medium to long-term valuation recovery potential for PVC prices [9]

Group 1 - The battery-themed ETFs have experienced a significant pullback after two months of continuous gains, with a maximum decline exceeding 7% on a single day [1][3] - The A-share market showed a general decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 4.55% and the tech sector facing widespread adjustments, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 index which fell over 5% [1][3] - The recent downturn in the battery sector is attributed to short-term market sentiment disturbances and profit-taking by investors [1][3] Group 2 - As of October 10, multiple lithium battery and battery ETFs saw declines of over 7%, alongside other sectors such as new energy and integrated circuits [1][2] - The battery-themed ETFs had previously shown remarkable performance, with a maximum increase of over 70% since early August, leading the market [3] - Concerns regarding export prospects due to the Ministry of Commerce's export controls on lithium batteries have pressured individual stocks and related ETFs [3][4] Group 3 - Market volatility has been influenced by several factors, including rising concerns over valuation bubbles in the AI sector and increased global trade friction uncertainties [4] - The recent strength of the US dollar and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates have contributed to a decrease in risk appetite among investors [4] - Long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of improved market performance driven by lower risk-free rates, ample liquidity, and better profit forecasts [4]