Group 1 - The international gold price has surpassed the 3400 mark, reaching a two-week high, driven by escalating global trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Analysts indicate that the activity level in the precious metals market has significantly increased, with different trading sessions exhibiting distinct characteristics [1] - The trading dynamics vary across sessions: the Asian session often experiences fluctuations due to geopolitical news, the European session sees increased capital inflow, and the American session is prone to significant volatility due to Federal Reserve policy movements [1] Group 2 - Precious metals are global assets with trading sessions covering Asia, Europe, and America, forming a 24-hour continuous trading system [2] - The ability to operate flexibly across different trading sessions directly impacts investors' opportunities to capture safe-haven asset allocations [2] - A reputable spot gold platform must provide trading windows that synchronize with global markets, which is a key measure of the platform's professionalism [2] Group 3 - Different trading sessions exhibit distinct market rhythms, necessitating high demands for order execution speed and capital flexibility on trading platforms [3] - Gold盛贵金属 supports MT4 & MT5 platforms, ensuring high-speed order execution and flexible trading operations across all sessions [3] - The platform's capital flow efficiency is highly aligned with trading sessions, offering instant deposit and two-hour withdrawal services to meet investors' capital adjustment needs [3] Group 4 - Transparency and security are core concerns for investors in the long trading hours and complex market of precious metals [4] - 金盛贵金属, as an AA class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, provides transaction codes for trades over 0.1 lots, allowing for verification on the exchange [4] - The platform employs international standard online coding technology and SSL encryption to safeguard customer data and transaction security during 24-hour trading [4] Group 5 - New investors in gold should choose reputable platforms, verifying their regulatory qualifications and transaction coding [7] - Familiarity with the characteristics of different trading sessions is crucial, as the Asian session is less volatile and suitable for practice, while the American session is more volatile and requires position control [7] - Utilizing stop-loss tools is essential, and maintaining rational judgment is particularly important during periods of market volatility [7]

Group 1 - President Trump indicated a likely implementation of a unified tariff of 15% to 20% on countries without bilateral trade agreements by August 1 [1] - This statement suggests a significant increase from the previously proposed 10% baseline tariff, signaling a tougher stance from the Trump administration on non-trade agreement countries [1] - Trump emphasized the need for a unified tariff to simplify trade negotiations and protect domestic manufacturing and labor [1] Group 2 - Recent actions include a 15% import tax on Japan and a similar tariff on most European goods, indicating a shift in the U.S. global trade stance [2] - The proposed unified tax rate aligns closely with recent agreements, potentially simplifying trade management but risking retaliatory tariffs and escalating global trade tensions [2] - Critics warn that high tariffs could lead to increased prices, disrupted supply chains, and negatively impact U.S. competitiveness in the global supply system [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy uncertainty, and trade disputes, which have heightened market volatility and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The independence crisis of the Federal Reserve and President Trump's comments about possibly firing Powell have caused market turbulence, leading to a drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [3]. - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased due to economic slowdown forecasts, which may favor gold prices [3]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June remained flat month-on-month, easing concerns about immediate tightening of monetary policy, while year-on-year PPI showed an increase, indicating potential long-term inflation risks that could benefit gold [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly Israel's airstrikes in Syria, have intensified market risk aversion, boosting gold demand [3]. - Trade tensions, including Trump's threats of tariffs on EU imports and a unified tax rate on over 150 countries, have raised inflation and economic growth concerns, prompting investors to seek gold as a hedge [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently within a triangular convergence range since reaching 3500, with recent volatility observed [5]. - Key support levels include the 5/30-day moving average around 3342 and the 10/20-day moving average near 3332/3330, with a critical support level at 3319 [7]. - Resistance levels to watch are the recent high of 3377 and the 3400 area, which has previously acted as a resistance zone [7]. - The four-hour chart indicates a complex structure, with key levels at 3282 and 3247 to monitor for potential downward breaks [9]. Upcoming Focus - Key economic data releases to watch include U.S. retail sales for June and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, which could impact market sentiment and gold prices [4].

Supply Outlook - Natural rubber production is expected to increase in the second half of the year, with significant growth in exports from Africa to China, leading to a sufficient supply in the domestic market [2][35] - The global production of natural rubber is projected to grow by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons by 2025, while consumption is expected to rise by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons [8] - Thailand's natural rubber production from January to May was 1.432 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports to China rising by 39.69% [11] - Vietnam's natural rubber production decreased by 2.3% to 0.281 million tons from January to May, facing challenges in growth potential [14] - African natural rubber production reached 1.76 million tons in 2022, with Côte d'Ivoire being a major contributor, and exports to China are expected to increase due to zero-tariff policies [19] Demand Uncertainty - The macroeconomic environment and rising global trade tensions have created significant uncertainty in international demand for natural rubber in the second half of the year [26] - Domestic demand is supported by policies such as "old-for-new" tire replacement and the promotion of new energy vehicles, which are expected to boost consumption [34] - Despite high tire production and export levels, inventory pressures remain significant, with tire manufacturers facing high stock levels [31] - The U.S. tariff policies and the EU's anti-dumping investigations may impact global tire trade and demand, leading to further uncertainty [30] Overall Market Outlook - With an expected increase in supply and strong uncertainties in terminal demand, natural rubber prices are anticipated to remain in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year [36]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - In the first week of July, passenger car sales reached 238,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, but a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth was 0.8% year-on-year and 4.76% month-on-month as of July 11[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1465.4, down 12.5% month-on-month and down 23.5% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery this week[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 13, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.21 percentage points to 83.44%[3] - Cement shipment rate was 39.9%, indicating continued weakness in real estate and infrastructure[3] - The operating rate of semi-steel tires in the automotive sector increased by 5.39 percentage points to 71.67%[2] Price Performance - As of July 11, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 1.12% week-on-week, while the price of eggs fell by 1.49%[2] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.17% and 1.90% respectively, indicating a continued upward trend in oil prices[3] - Copper prices surged by 6.13% as a result of the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by Trump[3] Fiscal and Investment Insights - This week, the issuance of general government bonds reached 193.1 billion, with a progress rate of 59.4%[3] - New local bonds issued amounted to 21.6 billion, with a progress rate of 58.4%[3] - The cement shipment rate showed a slight decline, while the asphalt operating rate continued to rise, indicating stable construction activity[3] International Trade and Policy Risks - Trump has threatened to reintroduce large-scale tariffs on August 1, potentially raising effective tariff rates back to around 20%[2] - The proposed tariffs include a 50% tariff on copper and potential tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, with drug tariffs possibly reaching 200%[3] - The effective tariff rate for the EU could increase from 20% to 30%, and for Canada from 25% to 35%[3]

Core Viewpoint - The external environment is improving, leading to a gradual rise in the A-share market, with recent international situations showing signs of stabilization [1] Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a slow upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs in recent weeks, while the Shenzhen Component Index also rebounded [1] - Last week, the average daily trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.4 trillion, showing a slight decline compared to the previous week [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards traditional industries such as steel and building materials, with banks also performing relatively strongly [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the consolidation range observed in May and June, indicating a shift in trading focus [1] - On Friday, the index challenged significant technical resistance from the fourth quarter of the previous year but faced a pullback after encountering resistance [1] - Without substantial positive news, it is expected that a significant upward breakthrough may be challenging [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing LSEG solutions to maximize value through various training courses and innovative tools designed for financial professionals [2][3][9]. Training Courses - A series of online and offline training sessions are scheduled for July 2025, focusing on various aspects of asset management and data solutions [3][6][7]. - Specific courses include topics such as using Datastream API for data downloads, capturing volatility in the U.S. stock market, and utilizing LSEG Data Libraries for bond searches [6][7]. Product Features - LSEG Workspace is introduced as a comprehensive ecosystem for financial insights, news, and advanced analytics, aimed at enhancing workflow and task efficiency [8][9]. - The platform combines cutting-edge technology with market-leading content to help users manage portfolios, develop trading strategies, and conduct market analysis [9][11]. User Experience - The Workspace interface is designed to be intuitive, allowing users to easily navigate and find relevant information, with AI-generated suggestions to anticipate future needs [11][13]. - Accessibility is highlighted, with the platform providing equal functionality on web and desktop, supporting multi-device synchronization for real-time updates [14]. Customization and Integration - Users can customize their workflows within Workspace to streamline tasks and improve efficiency, with integration capabilities for Microsoft Office applications [15][17]. - The CodeBook feature allows for rapid development of Jupyter notebooks using LSEG API and data, enhancing analytical capabilities [15].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is rapidly increasing oil production quotas to reclaim market share lost to North American shale oil producers, but actual production increases have not yet materialized significantly, keeping Brent crude prices stable around $65-66 per barrel [1][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production quotas by approximately 1 million barrels per day from March to June, but actual production growth remains challenging [1][3] - Despite the increase in quotas, Saudi Arabia's oil production has not shown significant improvement post-announcement [1][3] - Investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, believe this shift aims to regain market share from North American competitors and penalize OPEC+ members who consistently exceed production quotas [3] Group 2: Market Outlook and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts that OPEC+ core members' oil supply will increase by about 420,000 barrels per day from June to September, with half of this increase expected from Saudi Arabia [3] - The firm maintains a bearish outlook on overall oil supply, predicting an increase of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day from non-OPEC+ sources, exceeding the anticipated global demand increase of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its oil price forecasts, predicting a supply surplus that could lead to lower peak production levels for U.S. shale oil [4][5] Group 3: Price Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, down from previous estimates [5] - The firm also predicts WTI crude prices to average $56 per barrel in 2025 and $51 per barrel in 2026, reflecting a downward revision from earlier forecasts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further interest rate cuts due to stable inflation and external economic uncertainties, particularly influenced by U.S. trade policies [1][3][5] Group 1: ECB's Current Stance - ECB official Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated that there is no significant upward pressure on consumer prices, suggesting potential for lower borrowing costs [1] - The current ECB interest rate stands at 2.25%, compared to the Federal Reserve's rate of 4.25%, providing room for future rate cuts [1] - The ECB's monetary policy may need to be more accommodative to address external pressures on the eurozone economy [1] Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among ECB Officials - Some ECB officials advocate for moderate rate cuts to support the economy amid global trade tensions, while others express caution regarding potential inflation risks [3] - Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot warned that global tariff policies pose significant challenges to inflation, indicating a complex economic outlook [3] - The ECB faces a dilemma between stimulating economic growth and managing future inflation risks [3] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The ECB's policy decisions are critical in balancing economic support and inflation control, which will shape the eurozone's economic trajectory in the coming years [5] - While short-term rate cuts may continue, the ECB must carefully assess the balance between inflation pressures and economic growth in the medium term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The market is influenced by macro - geopolitical factors and supply marginal increments. The US trade court's ruling on Trump's global tariff policy and potential sanctions on Russia, along with OPEC + supply policies, are key factors. Demand is constrained by global trade frictions. Short - term, oil prices are expected to remain volatile, and breakthroughs require clarity on OPEC + production decisions and EU - US tariff games. Mid - to long - term, a band - trading strategy is recommended, and short - term, there are opportunities to short on rebounds. Suggested price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Attention should be paid to INE spread rebound opportunities and options to buy volatility during range - bound periods [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: In the short term, supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase due to profit improvement and new production lines. However, non - aluminum demand pressure and cost decline pose risks. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 6 - 9 spread long position [7]. - PVC: Recently, PVC has been weak due to poor market sentiment. Fundamentally, long - term contradictions are prominent as real - estate demand remains sluggish, and exports face potential negative impacts. In the near term, supply pressure is limited during the maintenance period, and exports may remain positive due to BIS extension. PVC is expected to remain weak in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended with resistance around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - Spot prices continue to fall, but trading volume has improved. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. For PE, maintenance will increase before early June, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decrease. For PP, supply pressure will increase after the maintenance peak in late May. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of restocking. It is recommended to short PP on rallies and expect the LP spread to widen [12]. Styrene - After the styrene delivery, short - covering cooled down, and the basis declined. The weak commodity market and inventory increases of pure benzene and styrene at the docks put downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The new - cycle port inventory of styrene has started to accumulate, increasing the pressure on high - price supplies. In the medium term, the low - profit situation of 3S products provides limited support for styrene, and Sino - US tariff disputes will negatively affect terminal demand. However, the overnight crude oil rebound may impact the chemical market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on styrene in the medium term [18]. Urea - The market is currently weak due to increased inventory pressure during the demand lull. If export - reserved inventory cannot be quickly digested, it will further intensify spot pressure. Urea exports are a potential turning point, depending on Middle East and South American procurement demand and export policies. If orders exceed expectations, inventory pressure may be relieved; otherwise, the market will remain loose [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing as some domestic and foreign devices resume production. Downstream PTA load is rising, and the short - term supply - demand situation is still good. Spot supplies are tight, and foreign buyers are supporting prices. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position can be attempted, and the PX - SC spread can be narrowed [29]. - PTA: In late May, PTA devices restarted, and the supply - demand situation is weakening due to strong polyester factory减产 sentiment. Cost support is limited, but low processing fees provide some support. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term, with strong support at the lower end. A 9 - 1 spread short position is recommended [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: Despite polyester减产 expectations, supply is expected to contract due to domestic and overseas device maintenance. Port inventory is decreasing, and de - stocking may accelerate in June. It is recommended to wait and see on single - side trades and attempt a 9 - 1 spread long position [29]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are under pressure, and some factories plan to reduce production. Raw material PTA supply - demand is weakening. Short - fiber processing fees may recover, and the absolute price will follow raw materials. Attention should be paid to factory production cuts. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees can be widened at low levels [29]. - Bottle - grade PET: Supply is expected to increase, but demand from the downstream soft - drink industry will rise during the peak consumption season. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and attention should be paid to device operation under low processing fees. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trades, and processing fees are expected to range between 350 - 550 yuan/ton, with opportunities to widen at the lower end [29]. Methanol - Fundamentally, inland methanol has a downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has increased, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period, with May imports expected to reach 110 million tons. Iranian supply increments and positive import profits strengthen arrival expectations. MTO low - operation restricts demand, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies, as the mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound space is limited under inventory - accumulation expectations [38][40]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude rose to $65.31/barrel, WTI to $62.31/barrel, and SC to 457.40 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3, also increased [2]. - **Product Oil**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased slightly. Some spreads, like RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3, decreased [2]. - **Cracking Spreads**: Cracking spreads of some refined products, such as US gasoline and Singapore gasoline, decreased [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices of PVC decreased. Some spreads, like V2505 - 2509, also changed. Overseas quotes were stable, and export profits increased significantly [6][7]. - **Caustic Soda**: Domestic prices were stable, overseas quotes increased, and export profits turned positive [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry and some downstream industries'开工 rates increased, while PVC开工 rates decreased slightly. Inventories of both products decreased [6][7]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased. Some spreads, such as L2505 - 2509 and PP2505 - 2509, changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: PE device开工 rate decreased, PP device and powder开工 rates increased slightly, and downstream weighted开工 rates increased. PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased [11][12]. Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and some other upstream products changed. Pure benzene prices decreased [15]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, the basis increased, and the spread decreased [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Profits**: Overseas quotes decreased slightly, and import profits increased significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic pure benzene综合开工率 increased, styrene开工率 decreased, and some downstream products'开工 rates changed. Inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased [18]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures prices decreased slightly, and some spot prices increased. Some spreads and basis values changed [21][25]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production of urea increased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory remained stable [26]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. PX prices decreased [29]. - **Polyester Product Prices**: Prices of POY, FDY, and other polyester products were stable or decreased slightly. Cash flows of some products changed [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: PTA开工率 increased, MEG综合开工率 decreased, and polyester综合开工率 decreased slightly [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of methanol decreased, and some spreads and basis values changed. Spot prices in different regions also changed [38]. - **Supply and Demand**: Enterprise and port inventories of methanol increased, upstream and some downstream开工 rates changed [38].