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思考乐教育(1769.HK):加速异地扩张 蓄势长期增长
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 19:09
Group 1 - The company reported H1 2025 performance with revenue of 439 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and adjusted net profit of 81 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% [1] - Revenue and profit accounted for approximately 38% and 33% of the company's previous full-year forecasts, slightly below expectations due to internal adjustments and increased operational costs in the new learning center in Guangzhou [1] - The company plans to actively expand into new provincial markets over the next three years, focusing on new business opportunities in high school/full-time education and enhancing teaching and operational capabilities [1] Group 2 - In H1 2025, the company's quality education revenue reached 388 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, driven mainly by a 4.8% increase in student numbers; tutoring course revenue grew 58.7% to 52 million yuan, with student numbers increasing by 56.6% [1] - The number of learning centers reached 184, with 162 in Shenzhen and 22 in Guangzhou, reflecting an increase of 2 and 13 centers respectively since the end of 2024 [1] - The company is prioritizing revenue and market share growth in Guangzhou, leveraging its strong talent pool and research resources to support local branches, with plans to expand into other cities in the Greater Bay Area starting in 2026 [1] Group 3 - The company initiated internal adjustments in H1 2025 to align with its growth strategy for the next three years, including refining business lines and team roles, promoting young leaders, and optimizing teacher structure [2] - Among newly hired teachers in Shenzhen, 91% hold a bachelor's degree or higher, with over 70% being recent graduates, which is expected to build a strong talent reserve for future expansion [2] - The company plans to reorganize its product line to better meet market demands and explore new business opportunities such as vocational education for college entrance examinations [2] Group 4 - The company maintains a buy rating despite short-term profit drag from rapid new outlet expansion, adjusting the forecast for adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to 207 million, 276 million, and 388 million yuan, reflecting decreases of 15%, 16%, and 8% respectively [2] - The target price is set at 6.03 HKD, based on a 15x PE for 2025, adjusted from a previous value of 7.01 HKD due to changes in profit forecasts [2]