格隆汇1月9日｜据日本读卖新闻，日本首相高市早苗开始考虑在预定于23日召集的高规格常规国会开幕 之初解散众议院。目前看来，众议院大选极有可能在2月上中旬举行。由于执政党在参议院仍处于少数 地位，首相此举被认为旨在通过选举获得国民信任，从而为实现其政策目标赢得推进力。政府相关人士 透露了这一消息。高市早苗之所以探讨1月解散众议院，背景似乎是内阁支持率正处于高位运行。在读 卖新闻社的全国舆论调查中，内阁去年10月成立当初为71%，到同年12月（73%）为止一直维持在七成 水平。这一次如果解散众议院，在常规国会上，首相就职后首次的施政方针演说将被取消（搁置）。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the high approval ratings of Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's cabinet, which have consistently exceeded 70% from October to December, similar to the early stages of previous long-term administrations like those of Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe [2][4] - The approval rating of Takashi's cabinet reached 75% in a survey conducted from December 19 to 21, maintaining a high level since her administration began [4] - Factors contributing to the rise in approval ratings include public expectations regarding the Prime Minister's character and leadership abilities, with 41% citing trustworthiness and 38% citing leadership skills as primary reasons [6] Group 2 - Despite the high approval ratings for the cabinet, the support rate for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has declined, dropping 4 percentage points to 37% in December compared to November [7] - There is a prevailing view within the LDP that a general election will not occur until at least spring 2026, allowing time for the implementation of policies outlined in the supplementary budget [7] - The main risk factor for the administration is the cooling of Japan-China relations, particularly in light of Takashi's statements regarding Taiwan, which have drawn criticism from China [8]

记者会上的日本首相高市早苗（12月17日，日本首相官邸） 日本经济新闻社和TV Tokyo于12月19日～21日实施的舆论调查显示，高市早苗内阁的支持率为75％， 与11月的上次调查（75％）持平。自10月高市内阁上台以来，支持率已连续3个月保持在70％以上…… 日本经济新闻社和TV Tokyo于12月19日～21日实施的舆论调查显示，高市早苗内阁的支持 率为75％，与11月实施的上次调查（75％）持平。"不支持"内阁的比例为18％，数值也与 上次相同。自10月高市内阁上台以来，支持率已连续3个月保持在70％以上。 此次调查由日经Research于12月19日～21日以日本全国18岁以上的男女为对象，通过包括 手机在内的电话随机拨号方式实施，共得到916份回答。回答率为40.1％。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容： 日本银行（央行）在19日的金融政策决定会议上决定把政策利率上调至0.75％，这是30年来 的最高水平。当问及对此次加息的评价时，"给予好评"的比例为55％，高于"不予好评"的比 例（2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The support rate for the new cabinet led by Takashi Sawa is significantly high among the working-age population, indicating a shift in political support dynamics in Japan [2][6]. Group 1: Support Rate Analysis - The support rate for Takashi Sawa's cabinet is 81% among the 18-39 age group, 82% among the 40-50 age group, and 66% among those aged 60 and above [2][6]. - Compared to the previous cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru, the support rate among those under 30 has more than doubled, showing a strong appeal to younger voters [6]. - The support rate for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has risen to 36%, although it has not yet returned to the 41% level seen at the establishment of Ishiba's cabinet [11]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The current cabinet has garnered support not only from LDP supporters but also from those who previously supported opposition parties like the Democratic Party for the People and other minor parties [2][8]. - In the recent Senate election exit polls, fewer voters under 30 supported the LDP compared to those supporting the Democratic Party for the People and other opposition parties, indicating a potential recovery in support for the LDP among this demographic [8]. - The support rate among male voters for Takashi Sawa's cabinet is 75%, while for female voters it is 73%, showing a balanced appeal across genders [8]. Group 3: Comparison with Previous Cabinets - The support rate for Ishiba's cabinet among LDP supporters was less than 70% at its inception, while it has increased to 91% for Takashi Sawa's cabinet [8][10]. - The support rate for opposition party supporters for Ishiba's cabinet was around 10-20%, but it has risen to over 80% for Takashi Sawa's cabinet [10].

Core Viewpoint - The approval rating of the new cabinet led by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae is 74%, significantly higher than the previous cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru, which had an approval rating of 51% at the time of its establishment [2][4]. Group 1: Cabinet Approval Ratings - Kishi Sanae's cabinet approval rating of 74% is comparable to previous cabinets, such as Yukio Hatoyama (75%) and Yoshihide Suga (74%) [4]. - The approval rating increased by 37 percentage points compared to the last survey of Ishiba's cabinet conducted in September [2]. Group 2: Public Support and Political Dynamics - The support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has risen to 36%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the last survey [5]. - The approval rating for Kishi's cabinet and the new LDP leadership is positively viewed by 55% of respondents, surpassing the 29% who disapprove [5]. Group 3: Public Concerns and Policy Priorities - The top reasons for supporting Kishi's cabinet are "good policies" and "trustworthy character," each cited by 36% of respondents [7]. - The most pressing policy issue for the public is "price control," with 51% prioritizing it, followed by "economic growth" (33%) and "pensions" (27%) [7]. Group 4: Coalition Dynamics - The Japan Innovation Party (JIP) has opted for an "outside cooperation" model, with 50% of respondents supporting this approach, while only 19% believe they should send ministers to the cabinet [7].

Core Points - The latest public opinion poll indicates that the support rate for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet is 64.4%, surpassing the initial support rates of previous cabinets led by Shigeru Ishiba and Yoshihide Suga [1] - A significant 70.2% of respondents believe that the appointment of Koichi Hagiuda, involved in the "black money" scandal, as acting secretary-general is "inappropriate" [1] - The poll shows that 76.5% of respondents welcome the idea of Japan having its first female prime minister, which is expected to promote women's active participation in society [1] Support and Opposition - The disapproval rate for Kishida's cabinet stands at 23.2%, which is lower than the previous cabinet's disapproval rate of 51.4% [1] - The support rate for Kishida's cabinet is slightly lower than the 66.4% support rate of Yoshihide Suga's cabinet when it first took office [1] Coalition and Public Perception - A total of 64.4% of respondents rated the ruling coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party as "good" or "fairly good" [1] - 66.2% of respondents expressed approval of the Komeito party's decision to withdraw from the coalition with the LDP [1] Reasons for Support - Among the reasons for supporting Kishida's cabinet, 26.6% of respondents cited "trust in the prime minister," while 22.5% believe that "economic policies are promising" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces internal pressure to resign as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) following multiple electoral defeats since 2024, despite a recent increase in cabinet approval ratings [2][4]. Group 1: Election Performance and Public Opinion - Since 2024, the LDP has experienced failures in various elections, leading to calls for Ishiba to step down as party leader [4]. - A recent public opinion poll indicates that 52% of respondents believe there should not be an early party leadership election, while only 39% support the idea of an early election [6]. - Ishiba's cabinet approval rating has risen to 42%, a 10 percentage point increase from the previous month, marking the first time it has returned to around 40% since February [2][6]. Group 2: Reasons for Support and Opposition - Among the reasons for supporting Ishiba's cabinet, the most cited is "trustworthy character" at 37%, followed by "it is a cabinet centered on the LDP" at 22% [6]. - The primary reason for opposition is "poor policies" at 38%, with "lack of leadership" and "poor government and party operation" both at 32% [6]. Group 3: Policy Priorities - In a survey regarding policy priorities, the most pressing issue identified by respondents is "price control," which received 49% of the votes, followed by "child-rearing, education, and declining birthrate measures" and "economic growth," both at 29% [6]. Group 4: Party Support Rates - The LDP's support rate has increased to 28% from 24% in July, while the support for the Constitutional Democratic Party has decreased to 7% from 9% in the same period [6].

Group 1 - The approval rating of Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet has dropped to a record low of 22.9%, a decrease of 9.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The disapproval rating has increased to 65.8%, up by 14.9 percentage points [1] - A majority of 51.6% of respondents believe that Ishiba should take responsibility for the ruling party's significant loss in the recent House of Councillors election and resign [1] Group 2 - The ruling coalition's poor election performance is attributed to multiple factors, with the stalled US-Japan trade negotiations being a significant reason [2] - President Trump announced a trade agreement that would reduce the reciprocal tariff rate from 25% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion and open its market for certain agricultural products [2] - Ishiba stated that he cannot comment on the implications of the trade agreement for his position until he thoroughly reviews its contents [2]

Core Viewpoint - The approval rating of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet is declining, posing challenges for the ruling coalition's electoral prospects in the upcoming elections [1] Group 1: Political Landscape - Recent surveys indicate that the ruling coalition, composed of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, may struggle to secure a majority in the House of Councillors [1] - Political economist Kazuyuki Hamada suggests that losing a majority in both houses would lead to significant instability in Japanese politics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The approval rating of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet in Japan has fallen to 24%, remaining below 30% for four consecutive months, indicating a potential political crisis [1] Group 1: Approval Ratings - The latest public opinion poll shows the cabinet's approval rating at 24% [1] - A rating below 30% is considered a "danger zone" in Japanese politics [1] - If the approval rating drops below 20%, it is viewed as entering the "resignation zone" [1] Group 2: Political Implications - The ruling coalition may lose its majority in the upcoming House of Councillors election on July 20 [1] - Failure to secure a majority could result in Shigeru Ishiba losing his position as Prime Minister [1]