| 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 89700 | -725 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 86011 | -5206 | | | 中工美供应链 | 276199 | -3373 | | | 合计 | 451910 | -9304 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 83180 | -3291 | | 总计 | | 535090 | -12595 | 【基本面消息】 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货11月20日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计535090千克，今日仓单较上一 日下跌12595千克。 会议记录显示，上月降息决定并非一边倒。"许多与会委员"虽然赞成小幅下调联邦基金利率目标区间， 但同时强调，如果保持利率不变，他们也会感到满意。还有几位委员直接投下反对票，他们对实现2% 通胀目标的进展停滞表示强烈担忧，认为如果通胀不能及时回落，长期通胀预期可能会脱锔上升，导致 高通胀彻底根深蒂固。 沪银主力短线维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报12290元/千克，最高触及12306元/千克，最低触及 11912元/千克，截止收盘报12050元 ...

东方金诚首席分析师王青表示，在10月两个期限品种LPR报价分别大幅下降25个基点后，11月LPR报价 保持不变，符合市场预期。一方面，作为LPR报价的定价基础，9月降息之后政策利率（央行7天期逆回 购利率）保持稳定，已在很大程度上预示11月LPR报价会保持不变。另一方面，10月LPR报价下调幅度 较大，加之银行净息差仍面临一定下行压力，报价行也缺乏进一步下调LPR报价加点的动力。 高盛预计，中国将在2026年第一季降准降息，较先前的预测有所推迟。并将"双降"（即政策利率下调10 个基点，存款准备金率下调50个基点）的预测时间，从2025年第四季度推迟到2026年第一季度。同时， 将原为2026年第二季度降息10个基点的预期推迟到第三季度。 展望未来，王青指出，年底前经济运行有望延续回升态势，政策利率将保持稳定，LPR报价也将继续保 持不变。着眼于促进房地产市场止跌回稳、提振经济增长动能、推动物价水平温和回升，以及有效应对 可能出现的外部贸易环境变化，2025年央行将坚持支持性货币政策立场，而且会保持较高灵活性，相机 抉择，降息降准都有空间。 期货日报讯（记者 肖佳煊）11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同 ...

在高市早苗政权提出积极财政政策的背景下，市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。日本 财务相、经济财政相以及日本银行总裁举行了三方会谈，但传出会中并未提及有关日元贬值、美元走强 的具体议题…… 11月19日的纽约外汇市场上，日元汇率一度跌至1美元兑157日元区间。日元跌至157日元区间是自1月中 旬以来时隔约10个月。对欧元方面，日元在1欧元兑181日元出头，刷新最弱水平。在高市早苗政权提出 积极财政政策的背景下，市场对日本财政恶化的警惕引发了抛售日元的压力。 对美元方面，从美国东部时间19日凌晨触及156日元区间后，日元在大约10小时内下跌了1日元。19日傍 晚（日本时间），日本财务相片山皋月、经济财政相城内实以及日本银行总裁植田和男举行了三方会 谈，但传出会中并未提及有关日元贬值、美元走强的具体议题，市场对政府和日本央行进行汇率干预的 预期随之下降。 美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）的降息节奏变得难以判断也带来影响。19日公布的10月美国联邦公开市场 委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，不少与会者预计至少在年底之前维持政策利率不变。 在会议纪要公布后，根据美国利率期货市场走势预测政策利率的"FedWatch ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve needs to exercise caution as policy interest rates approach neutral levels [1] Group 1 - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Musalem, emphasizes the importance of a careful approach in monetary policy [1] - The statement indicates a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's strategy as it navigates near neutral interest rates [1]

Report Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury bond to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond to 1.9% (all referring to non - VAT bonds) by the end of the year [24]. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the wealth management scale increased more than seasonally, with the total scale reaching 33.6 trillion yuan at the end of October, up 3.7 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and 1.5 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month [3][6]. - The average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies significantly rebounded in October. The average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies has been declining since the beginning of 2022, and the lower limit may reach 2.0% in the future [3]. - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly in the past two years. It is expected to fall below 1.60% in Q4 2025, and the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year in the next three to five years, supporting the downward trend of bond yields [3]. - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. Factors such as high equity positions of institutions like annuities, rapid decline in bank liability costs, loose liquidity, and seasonal patterns are expected to support the bond market [3]. Summary by Directory 10 - month Wealth Management Scale - As of the end of October 2025, the wealth management scale reached 33.6 trillion yuan, hitting a historical high. The increase in October was 1.5 trillion yuan, higher than the average increase of 0.87 trillion yuan from 2021 - 2024. Even with a strong stock market in Q3 2025, the wealth management scale increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, higher than the same period from 2022 - 2024 [6][7][9]. Fixed - income Wealth Management Yield in October 2025 - The performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products has been declining since 2022. In October 2025, the upper limit was 2.61% and the lower limit was 2.13%, and the lower limit may drop to around 2.0% in the future [12][17]. - The average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth management products was 1.26% as of November 9, 2025, and that of money market funds was 1.11%. The yield of cash - management products was stable at a low level in October [13][15]. - The fixed - income wealth management yield significantly rebounded in October. The average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products was 3.53% in October, up from 2.15% in September [18]. Investment Advice - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks decreased to 1.63% in Q3 2025, and it is expected to fall below 1.60% in Q4 2025. In the next three to five years, the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year by year, supporting the downward trend of bond yields [19]. - Given high equity positions of institutions like annuities, rapid decline in bank liability costs, loose liquidity, and expected policy rate cuts, the report is bullish on the bond market. Wealth management products may increase their allocation of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of 3 years or less and long - term industrial and urban investment bonds [24].

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $49.20, with a recent price of $49.55, reflecting a 2.58% increase from the opening price of $48.34 per ounce [1] - The highest price reached today was $49.57, while the lowest was $48.30, indicating a bullish short-term trend for silver [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the growth of stablecoins could significantly lower the "neutral interest rate," suggesting that the Fed's policy rates should be adjusted downward to avoid economic contraction [3] - The White House economic advisor Hassett mentioned that the government shutdown has led to a 1.5% decline in U.S. GDP, with potential negative impacts on fourth-quarter economic growth if the shutdown continues [3] - Treasury Secretary Basant indicated that if the shutdown persists, U.S. economic growth for the fourth quarter could be halved [3] Group 3 - The international silver market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with key resistance levels at $49.5, and potential targets of $51 and $52.5 if the price breaks above $49.5 [4] - Support levels to watch for potential buying opportunities are around $48.5, with expectations of upward movement throughout the week [4]

Core Viewpoint - The growth of stablecoins may significantly lower the "neutral interest rate" in the future, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's policy interest rates should be adjusted downward to avoid contractionary pressures on the economy [1] Group 1: Impact of Stablecoins - The expansion of stablecoins is expected to increase the net supply of lendable funds in the economy, applying downward pressure on the neutral interest rate [1] - If the neutral interest rate declines, the policy interest rate should also decrease to maintain economic health; refusal to lower rates would be considered a tightening action by the central bank [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Milan has called for multiple 50 basis point rate cuts to bring the policy rate closer to what he considers a "neutral" level [1] - Factors such as immigration policy adjustments and changes in tariff policies are contributing to the decline in the neutral interest rate, while the current policy rate is "far above neutral levels," imposing significant restrictions on the economy [1] Group 3: Stablecoin Regulations - Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to sovereign currencies (usually the US dollar) and are designed to maintain stable value [1] - Recent US legislation requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in cash and cash equivalents (including US Treasury securities) at a 1:1 ratio, indicating that as stablecoin issuance grows, demand for US Treasuries will also increase [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, suggests that stablecoins could significantly lower the neutral interest rate (R) [1] - A decrease in R would imply a reduction in policy interest rates [1] - Stablecoins can fulfill demand when access to dollars is restricted, potentially increasing the supply of funds available for loans [1]

Core Insights - Stablecoins may significantly lower the R* interest rate, which could lead to a decrease in policy interest rates [1] - When access to US dollars is restricted, stablecoins can fulfill the demand for liquidity [1] - The growth of stablecoins is expected to enhance the supply of funds available for lending [1]

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's policy interest rate remains unchanged at 2.75%, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1 - The decision to maintain the interest rate at 2.75% reflects the central bank's assessment of the current economic conditions [1] - The unchanged rate indicates a cautious approach by the Malaysian authorities in response to economic uncertainties [1]