证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 从价格（结构）的确定性看资产变化 —2026年一季度经济与市场展望 专题研究·宏观 固收 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 目录 股、债构成因子的拆分 01 02 价格指数变化的确定性是什么？ 03 支撑价格变化的因素 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 长期利率的拆解 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 资料来源：国信证券经济研究所绘制 图3：期限溢价受影响因素多元化 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 图1：长期利率的拆分 ⚫ 长期利率的拆分； 图2：真实利率更多是实际经济运行结果，而非原因 长期利率的构成因子现状：期限溢价回归历史正常区域下限 图5：10Y-7D不同利差水平下的情形 图4：近一年决定长期利率的主要因子是期限溢价 资料来源：wind，国信证券经济研究所绘制 资料来源：国信证券经济研究所绘制 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ⚫ 最近一年有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a cautious optimism for the demand side of the consumer goods sector in 2026, following two years of declining volume and price [1] Group 1: Industry Demand Trends - The consumer goods sector has experienced a continuous decline in both volume and price for two consecutive years [1] - Channel inventory has largely been adjusted, returning to a healthy level [1] - There is a stabilization trend in consumer goods demand observed in Q3 2025, which is expected to carry into 2026, a year anticipated to be significant for consumption due to preparations for the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Price and Competition Outlook - Despite the cautious optimism regarding demand, the terminal prices for consumer goods may still face slight pressure year-on-year in 2026 due to weak demand and ongoing trends towards cost-effective consumption [1] - The intensity of competition in the industry has not increased significantly, suggesting that the decline in prices may be less severe compared to 2025 [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the dairy and catering sectors, which have seen significant stock price adjustments over the past 2-3 years and are currently at historical low static valuations [1] - These sectors are expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, leading to improvements in both performance and valuation [1]