Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is characterized by significant divergence, with the US maintaining a leading position at $14.93 trillion, but showing weakened growth momentum [1] - Japan's GDP has fallen to $2.1 trillion, overtaken by Germany, while China stands at $9.19 trillion with a growth rate of 5.3%, acting as a stabilizing force amid global economic challenges [1][6] United States Economic Analysis - The US GDP of $14.93 trillion appears stable, but the quality of growth is concerning, with a 0.3% decline in Q1 GDP and a record trade deficit due to excessive reliance on tariff policies [3][4] - The first quarter saw a 40% increase in imports, while exports only grew by 0.4%, indicating a distorted trade structure [3] - The Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes have led to increased financing costs, with government debt reaching $36 trillion and mortgage rates exceeding 7% [4] Japan Economic Challenges - Japan is facing a dual challenge of aging population and industrial hollowing, with its GDP declining and being closely pursued by India [6][8] - The automotive sector is particularly affected, with a 0.6% drop in exports and significant profit losses projected for major manufacturers like Toyota due to US tariffs [6][8] - The Cabinet Office has lowered Japan's growth forecast to 0.7%, the lowest in five years, reflecting ongoing structural crises [8] China Economic Resilience - China demonstrates unique growth resilience with a GDP of $9.19 trillion and a 5.3% growth rate, supported by a strong performance in agriculture, manufacturing, and services [9] - The first half of the year saw high-tech industries grow by 9.5%, contributing over 30% to new productivity [9] - China is leveraging its complete industrial system and internal demand strategies, including a $300 billion consumption subsidy policy, to drive growth and mitigate external pressures [9] Global Economic Trends - The economic divergence highlights three major trends: a shift in growth momentum from the US to China, a restructuring of global supply chains, and a competition in governance capabilities [10] - China's transition from a global factory to an innovation center is reshaping the economic landscape, providing a reference model for emerging economies [10]