Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is characterized by significant divergence, with the US maintaining a leading position at $14.93 trillion, but showing weakened growth momentum [1] - Japan's GDP has fallen to $2.1 trillion, overtaken by Germany, while China stands at $9.19 trillion with a growth rate of 5.3%, acting as a stabilizing force amid global economic challenges [1][6] United States Economic Analysis - The US GDP of $14.93 trillion appears stable, but the quality of growth is concerning, with a 0.3% decline in Q1 GDP and a record trade deficit due to excessive reliance on tariff policies [3][4] - The first quarter saw a 40% increase in imports, while exports only grew by 0.4%, indicating a distorted trade structure [3] - The Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes have led to increased financing costs, with government debt reaching $36 trillion and mortgage rates exceeding 7% [4] Japan Economic Challenges - Japan is facing a dual challenge of aging population and industrial hollowing, with its GDP declining and being closely pursued by India [6][8] - The automotive sector is particularly affected, with a 0.6% drop in exports and significant profit losses projected for major manufacturers like Toyota due to US tariffs [6][8] - The Cabinet Office has lowered Japan's growth forecast to 0.7%, the lowest in five years, reflecting ongoing structural crises [8] China Economic Resilience - China demonstrates unique growth resilience with a GDP of $9.19 trillion and a 5.3% growth rate, supported by a strong performance in agriculture, manufacturing, and services [9] - The first half of the year saw high-tech industries grow by 9.5%, contributing over 30% to new productivity [9] - China is leveraging its complete industrial system and internal demand strategies, including a $300 billion consumption subsidy policy, to drive growth and mitigate external pressures [9] Global Economic Trends - The economic divergence highlights three major trends: a shift in growth momentum from the US to China, a restructuring of global supply chains, and a competition in governance capabilities [10] - China's transition from a global factory to an innovation center is reshaping the economic landscape, providing a reference model for emerging economies [10]

Core Viewpoint - In July, China's export growth continued to exceed expectations, with rapid growth in exports to ASEAN and Africa effectively offsetting the decline in demand from the United States [1] Export Analysis - The semiconductor industry chain, automotive industry chain, and raw materials industry significantly contributed to export growth in July, while labor-intensive products shifted from a positive to a negative contribution to overall exports [1] Import Analysis - In July, import growth rebounded, with a notable increase in the decline of imports from the United States, while the import growth rate of most bulk commodities increased compared to previous values [1] Outlook - Despite the impact of tariffs on direct exports to the U.S. and transshipment trade, accelerated capacity transfer, technological product innovation, and diversified trade layouts are expected to mitigate some downward pressure on export growth, with an anticipated positive growth rate of around 2.5% for exports in the second half of the year [1]