需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，国内传统旺季的加持，叠加政策方面的扶持，令行业整体预期 向好，铜价或将有所支撑。 后市来看，西南期货表示，印尼铜矿遭遇泥石流而关闭，至今仍未恢复，对铜价形成支撑。高盛于假期 发布报告称铜价区间为10000-11000美元，上限低于预期。铜市偏强格局未变，但不宜追多。 10月9日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪铜期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约 报86760.00元/吨，涨幅达4.20%。 宏观方面，据国新国证期货介绍，美联储将在10月的降息预期已升至96.2%.同时12月降息概率也在86% 左右。国内四季度有望迎来新一轮刺激政策，再通胀逻辑有望被进一步强化，利多铜价。 供应方面，东海期货指出，全球第二大铜矿Grasberg矿区的一个项目因事故停产，影响产量27万吨。根 据目前消息，Grasberg有复产时间表，26年开始复产，27年完全恢复至正常水平。国内电解铜产量维持 高位，9月产量虽环比下滑，但同比上升11.62% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report provides comprehensive analyses of various futures and commodities, including their price movements, influencing factors, and market trends. It also offers insights into the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and future outlooks for each product [1][2][3] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 30, A - share three major indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to 3882.78, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35% to 13526.51, the ChiNext Index was flat at 3238.16, and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose 1.69% to 1495.29. The trading volume of the two markets reached 21814 billion, an increase of 20 billion from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4640.69, up 20.64 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 30, the coke weighted index closed at 1642.3, down 42.2, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1137.7 yuan, down 45.5. Some steel mills accepted the first - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton from coke enterprises. Tangshan's billet - rolling section steel mills implemented production control from September 29 to October 20. The current iron - water output was 242.36 million tons, an increase of 1.34 million tons, with high - level oscillation, and coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 34 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The mine - end capacity utilization rate has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of independent coal - washing plants continued to rise. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months, and inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks with a seasonal upward trend [1][2] Zhengzhou Sugar - During the long holiday, it showed a slight upward trend. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of September increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 362 million tons, but the sugar - making ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points. The weakening of the US dollar due to the government shutdown supported the price. However, the optimistic production prospects of major producers such as Brazil, India, and Thailand limited the upward space [2] Rubber - During the long holiday, Southeast Asian spot prices and Japanese rubber prices were weak due to concerns about the US government shutdown and economic uncertainties. However, Japanese rubber rose on Wednesday due to currency depreciation. From January to August, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 110.2 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, while Indonesia's were 114.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [3] Palm Oil - During the National Day holiday, the international oil market generally rose. As of October 8, the main contract of the Malaysian palm oil futures rose about 4.48% compared with the end of September. MPOA data showed that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 30 decreased by 2.35%, with a 6.17% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.35% increase in Sabah, a 6.62% increase in Sarawak, and a 3.44% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total production in September was 1.81 billion tons. SPPOMA data showed that from October 1 - 5, the yield per unit area increased by 11.61% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.18% month - on - month, and production increased by 12.55% month - on - month [3][4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, during the National Day holiday, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated upward, with the main November contract rising about 2.85%. There was technical buying, but the US soybean harvest was over 40%, and new soybeans on the market created seasonal supply pressure. As of October 4, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 8.2%, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. In the domestic market, the arrival volume of imported soybeans was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills remained above 2.3 billion tons for four consecutive weeks. As of September 29, the oil - mill soybean - meal inventory was 1.16 billion tons. The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, and soybean - meal demand was affected. In the short term, soybean meal was in a state of loose supply [5] Live Pigs - At the end of August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 billion, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal level, with high supply pressure. During the National Day, pig consumption was weaker than expected, and after the holiday, it entered the off - season. However, in November, there may be a seasonal rebound in demand in some southern regions. In the short term, the pig market has loose supply [6] Shanghai Copper - During the holiday, London copper futures rose due to supply concerns in Chile and Indonesia, but the strengthening of the US dollar limited the increase. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October has risen to 96.2%, and the probability in December is about 86%. China is expected to introduce new stimulus policies in the fourth quarter, which is positive for copper prices. Most market participants are optimistic about copper - price increases [6] Iron Ore - Recently, iron - ore supply has been relatively loose, and iron - water production has remained high. However, as the profitability of steel mills decreases, the upward space for iron - water production is limited. In the short term, iron - ore prices are in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - The planned production in October increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival of the traditional consumption season has brought restocking demand, but the high - level supply suppresses price increases. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [7] Logs - On the last trading day before the holiday, the log futures opened at 811.5, with a low of 808, a high of 830, and closed at 817, with a decrease of 1142 lots in positions. The price broke through the 820 resistance and then fell back below it. Attention should be paid to the 805 support and 820 resistance. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [7] Cotton - On the last trading day before the holiday, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fell 1.12% to 13215 yuan/ton. Hail and rain in northern Xinjiang affected the new - cotton purchase progress. The downstream textile market has entered the peak season, but new orders are limited. The average price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang is 6.1 yuan per kilogram. From October 1 - 8, US cotton fell 1.02% [9] Steel - During the National Day, the prices of national construction steel remained stable, but market trading was light. The market is in a tug - of - war between policy expectations and weak reality, and steel traders are hesitant between production restrictions and insufficient demand. Although the policy signals price stability, weak terminal demand keeps steel prices volatile [9] Alumina - The supply of bauxite is abundant, and alumina production is at a high level. Overseas alumina transactions have increased, and most are shipped to China. The domestic supply - surplus pressure is increasing, inventory is accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure. The alumina futures price is in a weak - oscillation trend [9] Shanghai Aluminum - After the Fed cuts interest rates, the trading rhythm of base metals has shifted from strong - expectation - driven to verification of actual demand growth. The global economic recovery signs are emerging. The Fed's interest - rate - cut expectation has increased during the holiday, and it is highly likely to cut interest rates three times this year, which will also open up space for China's monetary policy and may drive up prices when demand increases [10]