证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 展望 2026 年：总体上判断，2026 年破晓，军工有望逐步进入复苏期，但产业转 入积极态势仍然需要时间，以时间换空间或是好的策略。 景气度呈现向上的态势：2026 年启动新的 5 年规划，在 2027 年实现建军百年奋 斗目标背景下，总体上军费呈现上涨态势，军工装备放量可期。"十四五"积压的 订单叠加"十五五"新增加的军费，我们预判 2026~2028 年军工呈现显著的向上 态势。但当前军工产业仍处在调整阶段，进入积极的态势仍然需要时间。 国防军工 关注方向上：主战装备重点关注导弹、无人装备、新批产装备，以及军贸方向；新 质战斗力领域重点关注：军工 AI、无人装备、航天卫星、深海科技，军民融合关 注核聚变、大飞机等。 2026 年度策略：破晓，军工逐步进入复苏期 1、 主战装备 回顾 2025 年："十四五"收官之年，市场原预期完成"十四五"积压订单从而基 本面反转，然而全年来看军工订单受行业影响仍不及预期。但在 2025 年印巴冲突 等地缘事件影响下，军贸打开行业长期成长空间。总体来说，2025 年延续了"十 四五" ...

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) is experiencing active trading despite a decline, with significant net subscriptions indicating investor interest in the aerospace sector [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of July 22, 2025, the aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) has seen a weekly increase of 5.44%, ranking first among comparable funds [2]. - Over the past 10 trading days, the fund has attracted a total of 12.89 million yuan in inflows [2]. - Since June 23, 2025, the fund has appreciated over 12%, reflecting strong performance in the aerospace sector [2]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to witness a resonance between supply and demand in the aerospace industry, driven by increasing defense needs and military expenditure [3]. - China's defense budget has been growing at around 7%, with the defense spending as a percentage of GDP remaining below 1.5%, indicating potential for future growth [3]. - The year 2025 marks the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," suggesting a recovery phase for the industry, with a focus on advanced aircraft, low-altitude economy, and satellite internet [3]. Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, focusing on key areas such as fighter jets and satellite industries [4]. - The index has the highest military content among comparable indices, with 98.2% of its constituents belonging to the defense industry [5]. - The index also leads in drone content, featuring companies deeply involved in the drone sector [6][7]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - The National Aerospace Index has a strong technological component, aligning with the trend of high-end development in the aerospace sector [9]. - Revenue growth for the National Aerospace Index is projected to exceed that of traditional military indices in 2025 [10].