证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 展望 2026 年：总体上判断，2026 年破晓，军工有望逐步进入复苏期，但产业转 入积极态势仍然需要时间，以时间换空间或是好的策略。 景气度呈现向上的态势：2026 年启动新的 5 年规划，在 2027 年实现建军百年奋 斗目标背景下，总体上军费呈现上涨态势，军工装备放量可期。"十四五"积压的 订单叠加"十五五"新增加的军费，我们预判 2026~2028 年军工呈现显著的向上 态势。但当前军工产业仍处在调整阶段，进入积极的态势仍然需要时间。 国防军工 关注方向上：主战装备重点关注导弹、无人装备、新批产装备，以及军贸方向；新 质战斗力领域重点关注：军工 AI、无人装备、航天卫星、深海科技，军民融合关 注核聚变、大飞机等。 2026 年度策略：破晓，军工逐步进入复苏期 1、 主战装备 回顾 2025 年："十四五"收官之年，市场原预期完成"十四五"积压订单从而基 本面反转，然而全年来看军工订单受行业影响仍不及预期。但在 2025 年印巴冲突 等地缘事件影响下，军贸打开行业长期成长空间。总体来说，2025 年延续了"十 四五" ...

近日，由每日经济新闻主办的"第十四届中国上市公司峰会"在海口隆重开幕。在盛会上，"2025第 十五届上市公司口碑榜"正式发布，历经公众提名、舆情筛选、大数据模型筛选及专家评审等严格环 节，观想科技(301213)荣获"信息技术最具成长上市公司"荣誉。该奖项反映了资本市场对公司综合实力 的认可，也展现出其在"AI+军工"领域的价值与成长性。 民用市场同样实现突破：中标中交二航局特种设备监控系统项目，打开故障预测与健康管理(PHM) 民用空间；独立承建9416.4万元雅安数据赋能基础设施项目，依托"东数西算"战略布局AI算力新基建， 形成"军工技术民用转化"的第二增长曲线。中邮证券更明确指出，公司智能装备与AI业务已成为新业绩 增长点，给予"增持"评级。 "上市公司口碑榜"评选历经十五载，以其严谨公正的筛选流程著称，是资本市场极具公信力的价值 风向标。在初始的舆情筛选中，主办方就对近6000家提名公司进行了多维度筛查，将上千家存在重大舆 情或合规瑕疵的企业淘汰出局，其严苛程度为后续评选奠定了坚实的价值基础。 观想科技能够最终脱颖而出，不仅体现了公司在合规治理、稳健经营等方面的扎实根基，更反映了 市场对其在"AI+ ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2025H1 reached 483 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 66 million yuan, also up 36.71% year-on-year [1]. - The growth is primarily driven by the Beidou navigation business, which generated 171 million yuan in revenue for 2025H1, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 73.21% [2]. - The company has made advancements in AI and unmanned systems, successfully developing and deploying embodied intelligence systems, which enhances its strategic positioning in the military sector [3]. Financial Performance - For 2025Q2, the company reported a revenue of 314 million yuan, reflecting a 46.11% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, which is a 77.54% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for 2025H1 was 61.54%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating improved profitability [3]. - The company expects revenues of 1.12 billion yuan, 1.55 billion yuan, and 2.12 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 132 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 309 million yuan for the same years [4][5]. Business Segments - The integrated circuit business achieved revenue of 243 million yuan in 2025H1, a year-on-year increase of 29.55%, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [2]. - The smart city construction and operation service business reported a slight decline in revenue, down 0.73% year-on-year to 55 million yuan [2]. - The machine perception and intelligence business generated 11.77 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.26% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend is centered around artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in upstream hardware infrastructure, with a notable focus on overseas optical modules and PCBs, which began to rally in June. Domestic computing power, led by Cambrian, started to catch up in mid-August. The strong profitability of upstream hardware is causing anxiety among investors holding cash, while the lack of explosive applications in the downstream is limiting investment choices [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - The AI market is experiencing a robust phase, with the potential for significant growth in downstream applications, which is expected to be a key driver in the mid-term. The current lack of clear commercial models and blockbuster products in the application sector is a primary reason for the stagnation in downstream performance [1][2][3]. - The historical context of the "Internet+" wave illustrates that the eventual explosion of AI applications is inevitable, as seen in previous tech trends. The application side is anticipated to have a broader growth space compared to upstream hardware [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - In the current market environment, it is suggested to consider the downstream application sectors as "call options" for potential growth, particularly in areas such as AI + innovative pharmaceuticals, AI + military applications, AIGC, edge AI, humanoid robots, and intelligent driving [2][20][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying key catalysts that could trigger market interest, such as advancements in domestic AI models or significant policy support for AI applications [22][23]. Performance Analysis - The performance of various sectors from January to August shows that upstream hardware, particularly communication hardware like optical modules and circuit boards, has significantly outperformed the market, while downstream applications have lagged behind [21]. - The report highlights that the AI application sector is still in its early stages, with a lack of major players emerging, which could lead to a broad-based rally once a few key applications gain traction [12][22]. Policy and Market Support - Recent government policies, such as the "Artificial Intelligence + Action Opinions," are expected to provide a framework for the development of AI applications, similar to the earlier "Internet+" initiatives. This indicates a strong commitment to fostering AI growth in various sectors [13][14]. - The domestic market is well-positioned for AI application growth due to a large user base and favorable resource conditions, which are essential for the transition from quantity to quality in AI applications [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Guanshang Technology (301213.SZ) reported a revenue of 41.05 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.43 million yuan, with a significant increase in non-recurring net profit by 372.29% [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company has established a unique "AI+" core business model that integrates AI with lifecycle management systems and digital twin technology, enhancing its capabilities in the military and civilian sectors [2][3] - Guanshang Technology has successfully developed six models of small turbojet engines, with thrust levels ranging from 40 daN to 200 daN, expected to be completed for small batch trial production within the year [3] - The company signed a significant order worth 93.5 million yuan with a client, demonstrating strong customer recognition of its technology and products [3] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company is advancing its capabilities in artificial intelligence and computing power, with a focus on integrating AI technology into defense applications [2][4] - Guanshang Technology has captured the strategic opportunity in the computing power sector, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 46.2% in China's intelligent computing power market from 2023 to 2028 [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company plans to utilize unallocated fundraising for enhancing its digital capabilities, focusing on lifecycle management, digital twin technology, and intelligent equipment [6] - Guanshang Technology has established several subsidiaries to focus on artificial intelligence and related fields, indicating a commitment to innovation and market expansion [6] Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - The introduction of institutional investors is expected to enhance the company's governance structure and long-term development strategy [7][8] - The military industry is experiencing a growth phase, and Guanshang Technology is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its innovative capabilities and strategic focus on AI and computing power [8]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry is expected to outperform the market, especially around significant military parades, as historical data shows that the defense military ETF (512810) typically outperforms the CSI 300 index before and after major parades [5] - The upcoming 2025 military parade will showcase domestically produced main battle equipment, including new-generation weaponry and strategic assets, which is anticipated to attract high market attention [6] - China's military equipment has demonstrated superior performance in conflicts, with prices being 40%-60% lower than those of Western counterparts, potentially driving a surge in military trade orders, with exports expected to exceed $45 billion in 2025, marking a 30% year-on-year increase [7] Group 2 - AI technology is evolving from a supportive tool to a core component of combat systems, with applications in unmanned operations, command decision-making, and predictive maintenance, which could lead to the emergence of disruptive military technology giants [8][10]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant rally on August 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points, marking a strong upward trend [1] - Market turnover reached 2.58 trillion yuan, remaining above 2 trillion yuan for eight consecutive days, indicating robust trading activity [1] Defense and Military Industry - The defense and military sector saw substantial inflows, with over 8.7 billion yuan net inflow into the sector, making it one of the top-performing industries [1] - The National Defense and Military ETF (512810) surged by 2.6% in the afternoon session, reaching its highest price since January 19, 2022 [1] - The ETF's trading volume increased by over 40% to 169 million yuan, marking the second-highest volume in three months [1] Stock Performance - The component stocks of the National Defense and Military ETF (512810) generally performed well, with notable gains from stocks like Zhonghang Chengfei, which surged by 10% to reach a historical high of 100 yuan [2][5] - The ETF recorded a weekly increase of 3% and achieved a three-week consecutive rise, with a total weekly trading volume of 731 million yuan, setting a new historical high [4] Future Outlook - The upcoming military parade on September 3 is expected to act as a catalyst for the defense and military sector, with historical data suggesting that such events typically lead to outperformance of the sector [7] - The potential for military trade growth is highlighted, with projections indicating that China's military trade exports could exceed 45 billion USD by 2025, representing a 30% year-on-year increase [7] - The integration of AI technology into military applications is anticipated to create significant opportunities, with AI expected to enhance operational efficiency and effectiveness in various military scenarios [7] Investment Tool - The National Defense and Military ETF (512810) serves as an efficient investment tool, covering a wide range of themes including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI, making it a comprehensive option for investors interested in the defense sector [8]

Group 1 - The defense industry is experiencing multiple favorable developments, including the successful launch of the Jielong-3 remote rocket carrying 11 satellites, which enhances satellite functionality and supports future constellation networking [1] - The eVTOL industry is undergoing a significant transition, with the first globally certified eVTOL aircraft being delivered, indicating China's potential to capture a leading position in the trillion-dollar aerial transportation market [1] - The upcoming military parade is further stimulating the military industry sector, with a large-scale rehearsal involving approximately 22,000 participants taking place in Beijing [1] Group 2 - The integration of AI in military operations is becoming a trend, with military AI expected to enhance autonomous collaborative combat capabilities and improve battlefield awareness through real-time data fusion [2] - The National Defense ETF closely tracks the China Securities National Defense Index, which includes listed companies that provide weaponry and equipment to the armed forces, reflecting the overall performance of the defense industry [2] - The National Defense ETF has the lowest management and custody fees among its peers at 0.40%, making it an attractive option for investors [2] Group 3 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities National Defense Index account for 43.88% of the index, with companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group among the leaders [3]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry sector in 2025 is experiencing significant short-term volatility with impressive gains, despite a modest overall annual increase of 3.5% as of mid-May, ranking 10th among 31 industries [1] Group 1: Index Funds - Index funds tracking the military sector have shown an average return of 4.34% this year, with notable performers including Penghua Defense ETF and Huabao Defense Military Industry ETF [3] - There is a clear differentiation within index funds, with some focusing on traditional military leaders while others target emerging sectors like low-altitude economy [3] - Investors need to choose index funds based on their strategic focus, opting for traditional military indices for rebounds or general aviation indices for low-altitude economic trends [3] Group 2: Active Funds - Active military funds have outperformed index funds, with an average return of 8.22%, highlighting the potential for higher gains through selective stock picking [4] - Notable active fund, Huaxia Military Security Mixed A, has achieved over 36% growth in six months by focusing on high-potential sectors like aerospace missiles and military trade [4] - The flexibility of active funds allows managers to invest in smaller military stocks and adjust strategies based on policy changes, enhancing their performance potential [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term market trend may continue until June, but there are risks of technical corrections; long-term benefits are expected from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and new trends like AI in military applications [5] - The military sector is characterized by high volatility and a significant retail investor presence, necessitating a cautious investment approach [5] - A recommended investment strategy involves a combination of core positions in index ETFs and satellite positions in active funds or niche ETFs for a balanced approach [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the stock market trends, focusing on various sectors including military, technology, and shipping industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Trends**: The market is experiencing a strong sentiment recovery with high-level stocks attracting significant capital, indicating a potential continuation of this trend into the following week [2][8][10]. 2. **Sector Rotation**: There is a notable rotation among sectors, with technology stocks, particularly in AI and robotics, showing strong performance. The military sector is also highlighted as a key area of interest due to policy catalysts [3][9][12]. 3. **Regulatory Updates**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission has announced modifications to the management of major asset restructuring for listed companies, which may not lead to significant market movements but is seen as a positive development [2]. 4. **Individual Stock Performance**: Stocks like Ningbo Shipping and *ST Songfa are highlighted for their strong performance and potential due to recent developments, including restructuring and new contracts [5][8]. 5. **Investment Opportunities**: The records suggest a focus on stocks with strong fundamentals and those that are part of emerging trends, such as nuclear fusion and AI, which are expected to see increased demand and investment [6][9][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Military and AI Integration**: The integration of AI in military applications is emphasized as a significant trend that could reshape defense strategies and market dynamics [12]. 2. **Shipping Industry Developments**: The shipping sector is expected to see individual stocks perform well, particularly those that have recently secured contracts for new shipbuilding projects [5][8]. 3. **Market Volatility**: There is a cautionary note regarding the potential for market volatility as high-level stocks begin to show signs of profit-taking, which could lead to a more defensive market posture [10][11]. 4. **Emerging Technologies**: The records mention the importance of emerging technologies, such as quantum computing and advanced robotics, which are expected to drive future market growth [9][12]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and potential investment opportunities.