证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 31 年 月 日 展望 2026 年：总体上判断，2026 年破晓，军工有望逐步进入复苏期，但产业转 入积极态势仍然需要时间，以时间换空间或是好的策略。 景气度呈现向上的态势：2026 年启动新的 5 年规划，在 2027 年实现建军百年奋 斗目标背景下，总体上军费呈现上涨态势，军工装备放量可期。"十四五"积压的 订单叠加"十五五"新增加的军费，我们预判 2026~2028 年军工呈现显著的向上 态势。但当前军工产业仍处在调整阶段，进入积极的态势仍然需要时间。 国防军工 关注方向上：主战装备重点关注导弹、无人装备、新批产装备，以及军贸方向；新 质战斗力领域重点关注：军工 AI、无人装备、航天卫星、深海科技，军民融合关 注核聚变、大飞机等。 2026 年度策略：破晓，军工逐步进入复苏期 1、 主战装备 回顾 2025 年："十四五"收官之年，市场原预期完成"十四五"积压订单从而基 本面反转，然而全年来看军工订单受行业影响仍不及预期。但在 2025 年印巴冲突 等地缘事件影响下，军贸打开行业长期成长空间。总体来说，2025 年延续了"十 四五" ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher but declined, with small-cap growth stocks showing slight strength, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component experienced minor declines [1] - The trading volume continues to shrink, indicating a potential decrease in market activity [1] Defense and Military Industry - The defense and military sector saw a strong rally, with the sector index opening high and gaining momentum [1] - Aerospace Hangyu surged by 20%, reaching a two-year high, with trading volume surpassing the previous day's total within the first 10 minutes [1] - Other stocks like Jiuzhiyang, Leike Defense, and Tianjian Technology also hit their daily limits or rose over 10% [1][3] Revenue and Profit Growth - The defense industry achieved a revenue of 450.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.74%, while net profit slightly increased by 0.02% to 24.45 billion yuan [3] - The naval equipment sub-sector reported a revenue growth of 16.2% and a significant net profit increase of 87.5%, with gross margin rising from 11.2% to 13.2% [3] Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy sector is becoming increasingly active, with stocks like Leike Defense and Teifa Information quickly hitting their daily limits [3][4] - Recent events such as the "2025 China (Jiangxi) Aviation Industry Conference" and the "2025 Hunan (International) General Aviation and Low-altitude Economy Expo" have catalyzed interest in this sector [4] Real Estate Sector - Real estate stocks collectively showed strong performance, particularly in engineering consulting services, with the sector index rising over 4% [5] - Stocks like Zhaobiao Co. and Huajian Group quickly reached their daily limits, with Zhaobiao Co. hitting a new high for the year [5][6] - Various sub-sectors within real estate, including property services and green building, also experienced significant gains [6] Policy Support for Real Estate - Continuous policy support is being observed, with local governments implementing measures to stabilize and promote the real estate market [10][11] - Recent data indicates that the total transaction volume of new and second-hand residential properties in 30 key cities remained stable year-on-year, with second-hand home transactions increasing by nearly 6% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The high-end equipment sector is experiencing significant growth, with the 中证高端装备细分50指数 rising by 1.97% and notable increases in key stocks such as 国睿科技 and 中航沈飞 [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The high-end equipment ETF (159638) saw a rise of 1.85%, with intraday gains exceeding 2% [1] - The ETF recorded a turnover of 3.27% and a transaction volume of 35.76 million yuan during the trading session [2] - Over the past month, the ETF has averaged a daily transaction volume of 58.85 million yuan [2] - The latest scale of the high-end equipment ETF reached 1.073 billion yuan [2] - In the last 14 trading days, there were 8 days of net capital inflow, totaling 13.32 million yuan [2] - The ETF's net value increased by 42.86% over the past year [2] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The military industry is expected to see an order turning point as the "建军百年奋斗目标" enters its second half, with new technologies and products driving market direction [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the 中证高端装备细分50指数 account for 45.6% of the index, with 中航沈飞 and 航发动力 being the most significant contributors [3][5] - The upcoming "十四五" equipment procurement tail orders are anticipated to be finalized soon, with an expected increase in upstream order growth [2]

Group 1 - The military industry sector continues to strengthen, with the aerospace ETF (159277) rising by 2.44% and a trading volume of 141 million yuan, leading its category [1] - Key stocks such as Great Wall Military Industry and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group have shown significant gains, with Great Wall Military Industry hitting the daily limit and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group rising over 8% [1] - The ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the continuous increase in global military spending highlight the technological advantages of Chinese military enterprises in areas like drones, fighter jets, and missiles, making the aerospace sector a core beneficiary [1] Group 2 - The aerospace ETF (159277) closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, focusing on the core track of China's military industry and strategically positioning itself in cutting-edge aerospace technologies [1] - The index covers critical industry chain segments such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, satellite navigation, and new materials, aligning with national defense modernization and high-end equipment upgrade strategies [1] - The component stocks are selected from leading enterprises in the military sector, encompassing emerging fields like large aircraft manufacturing, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace, capturing the rapid development of national defense technology [1] Group 3 - According to Zhongyou Securities, by 2025, the military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders as the "Centenary of the Army Building" goal enters its second half, with new technologies aimed at improving equipment performance or reducing costs [1] - New products representing new domains and new types of combat forces, along with military trade and military technology transformation, are anticipated to create new market directions with greater elasticity [1] - The recommendation is to focus on the aerospace main line as the military industry evolves [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the first deployment of US nuclear weapons in the UK in 17 years, with the B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs being stationed at RAF Lakenheath, enhancing NATO's tactical nuclear capabilities [4][13] - Ongoing conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have resulted in military engagements, indicating potential geopolitical risks that may affect defense spending and military operations in the region [5][16] - Looking ahead to 2025, the military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders, driven by new technologies and products aimed at improving equipment performance and reducing costs [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: aerospace and "gap-filling" new priorities, including companies like Fihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and others [6][17] - The second theme involves new technologies, products, and market directions with greater elasticity, featuring companies such as Aerospace Intelligence and Guangdong Hongda [6][17] 2. Market Overview - The China Securities Military Industry Index rose by 1.51%, while the Shenwan Military Industry Index increased by 1.28%, indicating a positive trend in the military sector compared to broader market indices [18] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector included Xinguang Optoelectronics (+32.55%) and Boyun New Materials (+25.16%), showcasing significant gains [19][20] 3. Valuation Levels - As of July 25, 2025, the China Securities Military Industry Index stood at 11,987.24, with a PE-TTM valuation of 118.72 and a PB valuation of 3.70, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [21][24] - The report provides detailed valuation percentiles for various military companies, highlighting significant differences in market performance [24] 4. Data Tracking - The report tracks recent capital increases and stock incentive plans among military companies, indicating ongoing financial activities that may impact stock performance [27][29] - It also notes significant orders in the low-altitude economy sector, with a $1.75 billion order for eVTOL aircraft, reflecting growth opportunities in emerging markets [31][32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the defense industry is experiencing a bullish trend, with the China Securities Defense Index rising by 0.80% and several constituent stocks showing significant gains, such as Steel Research High-Tech up by 7.25% [1] - As of July 20, 2025, among 120 tracked defense industry listed companies, 37 have disclosed their H1 2025 performance forecasts, with 14 companies expecting positive year-on-year growth [1] - The defense industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in orders as the "Centenary Goal of Military Building" enters its second half, driven by new technologies and products aimed at enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Defense Index closely tracks the performance of listed companies under the ten major military groups and those providing weaponry and equipment to the armed forces [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Defense Index account for 43.29% of the index, with companies like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and AVIC Engine Holdings among the leaders [2] - The Defense ETF has the lowest management and custody fees in its category at 0.40%, making it an attractive option for investors [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - As of July 20, 2025, among the 120 tracked defense industry listed companies, 37 have disclosed their H1 2025 earnings forecasts, with significant growth in the shipbuilding and defense information sectors [5][12] - The defense information sector shows high growth potential, with companies like Gaode Infrared and Chengchang Technology forecasting net profit growth rates of 846% and 335% respectively [6][12] - The shipbuilding sector also demonstrates strong performance, with companies such as China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry predicting net profit growth rates of 109% and 105% respectively [6][12] - The report suggests that the defense industry is expected to see an inflection point in orders, driven by new technologies and products aimed at enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs [14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the defense industry is at 1669.63, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] Performance Analysis - The defense sector index has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.58% increase in the China Securities Defense Index and a 2.26% increase in the Shenwan Defense Index [15] - The top-performing stocks in the defense sector this week include Yingliu Co. (+20.37%) and Feiliwa (+15.98%) [18] Earnings Forecasts - Among the 37 companies that disclosed earnings forecasts, 14 expect positive growth, while 12 anticipate losses [12] - Notable companies with high growth forecasts include Nairui Radar, Gaode Infrared, and China Heavy Industry, all projecting substantial increases in net profits [6][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two main investment themes: aerospace and new technologies/products with greater elasticity [14] - Suggested companies for investment include Feiliwa, Gaode Infrared, and China Shipbuilding among others [14] Valuation Metrics - As of July 18, 2025, the defense sector's PE-TTM valuation stands at 117.29, with 83.01% of historical data indicating lower valuations [20][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the mixed performance of the aerospace industry index, with specific stocks like China Shipbuilding Emergency (300527) and Great Wall Military Industry (601606) showing significant gains, while Zhenxin Technology (300101) led the decline [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) has seen continuous net inflows over the past 14 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 49.81 million yuan, totaling 334 million yuan, averaging 23.88 million yuan daily [1] - The successful launch of the Long March 7 Yao 10 rocket carrying the Tianzhou 9 cargo spacecraft marks a significant achievement in China's space endeavors, with the spacecraft docking with the space station approximately three hours post-launch [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, with a high concentration of 98.2% in the defense and military sector, making it the purest military ETF in the market [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Aerospace Industry Index (CN5082) as of June 30, 2025, include companies like Guangqi Technology (002625) and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760), collectively accounting for 49.42% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the mixed performance of the aerospace industry index, with notable gains from companies like China Shipbuilding Emergency (up 15.33%) and Hailanxin (up 10.57%), while Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group led the declines [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) shows active trading with a turnover rate of 12.24% and a total transaction volume of 42.3766 million yuan, indicating strong market activity [1] - The Aerospace ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 29.1454 million yuan, totaling 84.8466 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The military industry is expected to experience a turning point in orders as the "Centenary of the Army Building Goals" enters its second half, with new technologies and products offering greater market flexibility [2] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, with a high concentration of defense and military industry stocks, accounting for 98.2% of its portfolio [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Aerospace Industry Index (CN5082) account for 49.42% of the index, including companies like Guangqi Technology and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - A military parade will be held on September 3, showcasing both traditional main battle forces and new domain capabilities, reflecting the modernization of the military [12][13] - The military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders in 2025, driven by new technologies and products aimed at enhancing equipment performance and reducing costs [20] - Investment recommendations focus on two main lines: aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, and new technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity [20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the military industry is 1596.82, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] Market Performance - The military sector index increased by 6.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.91% [22] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week include Changcheng Military Industry (+43.85%) and Zhongke Haixun (+34.89%) [24] Valuation Levels - As of June 27, 2025, the military sector's PE-TTM valuation is 110.98, with 81.19% of the time since January 1, 2014, the PE-TTM valuation has been lower than the current level [26][29] Investment Suggestions - Suggested stocks for the aerospace main line include Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [20] - New technology and market opportunities include companies like Aerospace Zhizao and Guangdong Hongda [20]