Core Viewpoint - Argentina's government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil starting September 23, lasting until October 31 or until export declarations reach $7 billion, raising concerns about the outlook for U.S. soybean exports [1] Group 1: Export Tariff Changes - Argentina temporarily reduced soybean export tariffs from 26% to 0%, and soybean meal and oil tariffs from 24.5% to 0%, leading to a significant drop in Argentina's soybean premium [2] - Following the announcement, Argentina's soybean premium fell to 207 cents per bushel, while Brazil's soybean premium dropped to 289 cents per bushel [2] - By September 25, Argentina reported that the $7 billion export application quota was filled, with approximately 3 million tons of soybean export applications [2] Group 2: Domestic Market Impact - Domestic soybean meal futures in Dalian fell to 2,907 yuan per ton, a decrease of 190 yuan per ton from earlier highs, reflecting a 6.13% drop [1] - The domestic soybean meal inventory days increased to 9.6 days, indicating a higher inventory level compared to the previous year [3] - The current soybean meal price in East China is 2,910 yuan per ton, down 80 yuan per ton from early September, with a basis of 60 yuan per ton above the futures contract [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Forecasts indicate that soybean arrivals in China for September to November will be lower than the previous year, with expected arrivals of 10 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 8.5 million tons respectively [3] - The anticipated soybean import gap for the first quarter of next year is projected to be between 4 million to 5 million tons, although this gap may narrow due to Argentina's tariff reduction [2][3] - The outlook for soybean prices remains uncertain, with potential downward pressure on domestic soybean meal prices if U.S. soybean purchases resume and South American soybean yields are strong [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The temporary exemption of grain export tariffs in Argentina, combined with the disappointment from the China-US talks and the expected decline in high-frequency palm oil exports, has a strong short - term impact on the market, causing a significant correction in the domestic futures market. In the long - term, it is difficult to affect the domestic soybean system pattern, and fundamental variables need to be focused on [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Reaction - Argentina's decision to cancel export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products from September 22nd to October 31st to ease the shortage of US dollar supply has led to a decline in the Chicago soybean oil futures to the lowest level since mid - June. The main contracts of domestic soybean and palm oil futures once fell to 8018 and 8946 points, with declines of 3.91% and 4.06% respectively [1]. Driving Factors - **Argentina's Export Tax Adjustment**: Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third - largest soybean producer. The cancellation of export taxes intensifies competition in the international soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal markets. Throughout 2025, different export tax adjustments in Argentina have had various impacts on the market. For example, on January 27th, the market expected an export surge and potential increase in soybean production, but the domestic market rose due to other factors. On July 26th, the permanent tax reduction led to a slight downturn in the market [4][5]. - **China - US Talks**: The much - anticipated phone call between the US and Chinese leaders did not bring new information on agricultural product trade. China, as the world's largest soybean importer and the main export destination for US soybeans, has not purchased any new - season US soybeans. The seasonal harvest pressure in the US and the China - US trade dispute have put pressure on the market and accelerated the decline [5]. Market Outlook - In the short - term, there is a resonance in the domestic oil market. In the long - term, since the domestic soybean market mainly imports from Brazil, and Argentina's direct impact on domestic soybean import costs is low, the temporary exemption of export tariffs in Argentina is unlikely to affect the domestic soybean system pattern, and fundamental changes need to be closely monitored [7].