Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - The USDA has adjusted global corn production forecasts downward while increasing global soybean production forecasts [1] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for the 2024/25 year is revised down to 126.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.18% from previous estimates, while consumption remains stable at 127.6 million tons [9][12] - The global corn stock-to-use ratio is projected to decline to 21.33%, down by 0.25 percentage points [9][12] - In China, corn production is forecasted to remain stable at 29.5 million tons, with total demand also stable at 32.1 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 55.81%, down from previous estimates [11][12] Soybeans - Global soybean production is expected to rise to 42.8 million tons, an increase of 0.20%, with consumption also up to 42.5 million tons, reflecting a 0.24% increase [20][21] - The global soybean stock-to-use ratio is projected to increase to 29.65%, up by 0.11 percentage points [20][21] - In China, soybean production is forecasted to remain stable at 21 million tons, with consumption at 13.3 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 32.62%, down by 1.13 percentage points [26][27] Wheat - Global wheat production is expected to remain stable at 80.9 million tons, while consumption is projected to rise to 81.1 million tons, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 32.26%, down by 0.19 percentage points [32][33] - In China, wheat production is forecasted to remain stable at 14.2 million tons, with a stable stock-to-use ratio of 83.07% [37][38] Rice - Global rice production is adjusted down to 54.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.057%, while consumption is projected to rise to 54.2 million tons [43][44] - The global rice stock-to-use ratio is expected to decline to 34.58%, down by 0.14 percentage points [43][44] - In China, rice production is forecasted to remain stable at 14.6 million tons, with consumption also stable, leading to a stock-to-use ratio of 71.23%, down by 0.66 percentage points [49][51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, particularly recommending stocks like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope due to their competitive cost structures and potential for excess returns in the pig farming sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 2% week-on-week decline in live pig prices, with a significant year-on-year increase of 37.9% in the output of 20 listed pig companies in April [2]. - The report indicates that the breeding stock of sows has increased, suggesting a potential for normal profitability in pig farming in 2025, despite entering a downward price cycle [2]. - The report emphasizes the historical low valuations of leading pig farming companies, suggesting that they are well-positioned for recovery [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.05% in the week of May 12-16, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [14]. - The agricultural sector ranks 7th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance since the beginning of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 3.54% [14]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Primary Agricultural Products - Corn prices are reported at 2374.90 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.63% [35]. - Soybean prices remain stable at 3927.89 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 10.48% [35]. 2.2 Livestock - The average weight of pigs at slaughter remains stable at 129.71 kg, which is higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - The report notes that the output of listed pig companies reached 69.18 million heads in the first four months of 2025, marking a 30.1% year-on-year increase [2]. 3. Company Performance - The report lists the output of major listed pig companies, with Muyuan leading at 30.77 million heads, followed by Wens and New Hope [2]. - The report suggests that the introduction of new products in the pet food sector is driving rapid growth for domestic companies like Zhongchong and Guobao [5]. 4. Global Agricultural Trends - The global corn stock-to-use ratio for 2025/26 is projected to be the lowest since the 2015/16 season, indicating tightening supply conditions [3]. - The report forecasts a decrease in the global soybean stock-to-use ratio, reflecting similar trends in the corn market [3].