政策红利下农林牧渔企业的三大增长 路径——《"十五五"规划建议》解读 联合资信 工商评级二部 | 李思雨 伦海玲 "加快农业农村现代化，扎实推进乡村全面振兴"，《中共中央关于制定国 民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》将农业农村现代化提升至中 国式现代化全局战略高度。这一部署从政策补贴、效率提升、产业融合创 新等多维度，构建起行业高质量发展的政策框架。在政策支持与市场需求 的双重驱动下，农林牧渔企业可通过三大核心路径把握机遇、实现盈利增 长与结构优化。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 农林牧渔是中国国民经济第一产业。"加快农业农村现代化，扎实推进乡村全面 振兴"，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简 称《"十五五"规划建议》）将农业农村现代化提升至中国式现代化全局战略高度，从 政策补贴、效率提升、产业融合创新等维度，为农林牧渔行业企业的高质量发展构建 了政策框架。 路径一：政策补贴叠加多元融资支撑，构建盈利基础 《"十五五"规划建议》明确"提高强农惠农富农政策效能，健全财政优先保障、 金融重点倾斜、社会积极参与的多元投入格局"。 同时，2025 年 2 月 ...

（来源：每日粮油） 我们首先从单产水平来看，应该说自新中国成立以来，我国粮食单产在经历了建国初期的低位稳定之 后，从上世纪70年代开始，伴随着生产方式和农药化肥育种等行业的变化，产量出现了快速攀升。 从数据来看，我国玉米单产从每公顷1000公斤增长达到2000公斤，用了19年，从2000公斤增长至3000公 斤用了14年，从3000公斤增长至4000公斤用了11年，从4000公斤增长至5000公斤用了15年，从5000公斤 增长至2017年的6110公斤用了14年。 截至2022年，国家统计局数据显示，玉米单产为6436公斤/公顷。 这是中国玉米单产变化的时间轴，简单来讲，从趋势上来看玉米单产是持续增长的，基本上15年为一个 跨越。因此，在跨越前期产量之前，玉米的单产的表现又是相对稳定的。 从更详细的数据来看，自2019年以来玉米单产一直保持在每公顷6300-6400公斤之间。 在这个时间段内，当我们说某一年粮食单产出现较大幅度提升时，主要原因会有两个，一个是技术突 破，包括育种、种植模式等；另一个原因则是上年出现了减产，所以使得出现增产。 来源：每日粮油 以下内容来自群友交流，仅限参考！ 一、关于玉米产量数 ...

Inland Transportation - The inland transportation market remains stable due to the gradual release of wheat and the steady increase in the supply of autumn grains like rice, providing support for cargo availability [1] - Wheat market prices are experiencing fluctuations, with some grain holders choosing to sell, while the demand for wheat is weakened by the increased supply of quality corn for feed, reducing wheat's competitive edge [1] - Localized shipping efficiency issues and concentrated short-term cargo flows have led to slight tightness in shipping capacity, with some inland routes in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions maintaining stable freight rates after a previous increase of 3-5 yuan/ton [1] Coastal Transportation - The coastal grain transportation market shows a strong performance with stable cargo volumes and rising freight rates, specifically reporting freight rates of 78-83 yuan/ton from Anning Port to Guangdong and 68-73 yuan/ton to Fujian for 5000-ton vessels [3] - Despite the stable demand for wheat in southern sales areas, the overall consumption remains flat, with milling companies purchasing based on demand and feed companies maintaining safe inventory levels, leading to limited cargo support [3] - Typhoon weather has caused delays in port operations, tightening market shipping capacity and resulting in an overall increase in freight rates by approximately 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [3] Market Outlook - The inland transportation market is expected to remain stable with the ongoing release of autumn grains, while freight rates are anticipated to fluctuate slightly based on actual conditions of various routes [2] - The coastal grain shipping market has reached relatively high freight rates, and future trends will depend on the impact of typhoons and the alignment of shipping capacity with actual cargo demand [4]

Core Insights - The national grain and material reserve bureau reports that the autumn grain purchase volume has exceeded 100 million tons, highlighting a fast acquisition pace, active market transactions, and a strong demand for high-quality products [1][28] Group 1: Market Trends - The northeastern region has seen an earlier corn harvest compared to last year, with overall good quality [3] - High-protein soybean demand is robust, with prices significantly higher than ordinary varieties [3] - Rice supply is ample, with a clear trend of higher prices for quality products [3] Group 2: Regional Highlights - In Nenjiang, Heilongjiang Province, the area for high-quality corn varieties has surpassed 1 million acres, leading to strong demand from grain enterprises [5] - The local grain storage point has reported that farmers are enthusiastic about selling their grain due to higher prices, benefiting from a "premium recovery" model [5] - In Sichuan's Yanting, high-quality corn is being used exclusively for egg-laying hens, with significant processing capacity in the area [9] Group 3: Processing and Demand - National corn deep processing capacity stands at 125 million tons, with some companies expanding production or extending their industrial chains [9] - The feed production has increased this year, driving up corn demand, while deep processing enterprises have improved their operating rates [11] - The operating rate of starch processing enterprises reached approximately 66% in early November, a 6 percentage point increase month-on-month [11] Group 4: Government Policies - The government continues to implement minimum purchase price policies in major rice-producing areas, with specific prices set for different rice types [12][13] - The minimum purchase price for medium and late indica rice is set at 2,580 yuan per ton, and for japonica rice at 2,620 yuan per ton [13] Group 5: Technological Innovations - Advanced technologies such as AI monitoring systems and automated grain handling robots are being utilized to enhance grain storage and quality control [15][17] - The use of IoT systems for real-time monitoring during the drying process has significantly reduced losses in grain storage [22][24] Group 6: Financial Support and Services - Financial institutions are providing tailored services to farmers, including loans and financial management support, to facilitate grain sales and storage [26] - The establishment of a "service list" for agricultural timing has enabled local banks to match funding needs for over 300 farmers [26] Group 7: Overall Market Monitoring - The bureau emphasizes the importance of monitoring grain market trends, prices, and supply-demand dynamics to protect farmers' interests [28]

Core Insights - The national grain and material reserve bureau reports that the autumn grain purchase volume has exceeded 100 million tons, highlighting a fast acquisition pace, active market transactions, and a strong demand for high-quality products [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The northeastern region has seen an earlier corn harvest compared to last year, with overall good quality; high-protein soybeans are in strong demand, leading to prices significantly higher than ordinary varieties [4]. - The supply of rice is abundant, with a clear preference for high-quality products, and in Heilongjiang Province, the area of high-quality corn varieties has surpassed 1 million acres, attracting significant interest from grain enterprises [4][11]. - The corn deep processing capacity in the country stands at 125 million tons, with some enterprises continuing to expand production or extend their industrial chains [8]. Group 2: Pricing and Policies - The minimum purchase price for medium and late indica rice is set at 2,580 yuan per ton, while for japonica rice, it is 2,620 yuan per ton, with local preparations for storage capacity exceeding 10 million tons to meet farmers' selling needs [11][22]. - The state has implemented minimum purchase price policies in major rice-producing areas, including Henan, Hunan, and Heilongjiang provinces [8][11]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The grain acquisition process is increasingly automated, with intelligent systems managing the entire corn storage process, ensuring precision in operations [10]. - Advanced monitoring systems are being utilized to assess grain quality and conditions, providing detailed reports within minutes [10]. Group 4: Support Services - The national grain and material reserve bureau is guiding various grain purchasing entities to enhance service quality, ensuring farmers can sell their grain efficiently and with confidence [13][15]. - There is a focus on optimizing post-harvest services, including drying and storage technology, to minimize grain loss [15][18]. Group 5: Collaboration and Financing - The bureau is promoting deeper cooperation between agricultural enterprises and farmers, ensuring that resources such as personnel, storage, and financing are effectively utilized [18][20]. - Local financial institutions are matching the credit needs of over 300 grain farmers, providing tailored financial services from planting to harvesting [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful rice harvest in Beihai, Guangxi, showcasing the positive impact of agricultural policies and modern farming techniques on grain production [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Policies - The local government has implemented strong agricultural support policies, including subsidies for rice production and soil fertility protection, which have effectively motivated farmers [2]. - In 2023, nearly 11,000 acres of land received soil fertility protection subsidies amounting to over 950,000 yuan, benefiting nearly 3,000 households [2]. Group 2: Farming Techniques - The introduction of advanced agricultural techniques such as reasonable planting density, water-saving irrigation, and integrated pest management has been a focus this year [5]. - Soil testing and formula fertilization were conducted on 10,000 acres, and pest control measures were applied over 5,000 acres, enhancing both the quantity and quality of grain production [5]. Group 3: Environmental Sustainability - The district promotes the reduction of chemical fertilizers and pesticides through training and has established a recycling mechanism for agricultural waste to minimize pollution [7]. - The comprehensive utilization rate of straw is targeted to remain above 87%, contributing to the steady improvement of soil quality [7].

Core Insights - The "Good Farming Project" initiated in Youfang Town aims to enhance the endogenous motivation of village collective economies through land transfer and active participation of officials, leading to increased income for both the village and its residents [1][2] Group 1: Agricultural Initiatives - Youfang Town has started the "Three-Year Ten Thousand Mu Land Transfer Plan," targeting the transfer of 5,000 mu by 2025, 8,000 mu by 2026, and 10,000 mu by 2027, with an expected total output value exceeding 25 million yuan and a profit of 3 million yuan by 2027 [2] - The town has implemented a pilot program for large-scale wheat planting in four villages, generating over 1.8 million yuan in sales in the first half of the year, validating the feasibility of the "Good Farming Project" [1][2] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The town has introduced guidelines for collective scale planting and organized agricultural technology training for village officials, transforming them from passive observers to skilled managers [2] - A "minimum purchase price + market linkage" model has been established, ensuring that villages have no worries about sales, thereby enhancing the market presence of Youfang agricultural products [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the "Autumn Harvest Classroom" initiative in Suqian, Jiangsu, which aims to educate farmers on modern agricultural practices and enhance their skills in rice cultivation [2][3][4] Group 1: Initiative Overview - The "Autumn Harvest Classroom" is designed to provide hands-on training for farmers, focusing on the latest techniques in rice planting and harvesting [2][3] - The program includes demonstrations and practical sessions to improve the efficiency and yield of rice production [4] Group 2: Educational Impact - The initiative is expected to significantly boost the knowledge and capabilities of local farmers, leading to better crop management and increased productivity [3][4] - By integrating modern agricultural practices, the program aims to enhance the overall economic conditions of the farming community in Suqian [2][3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the successful harvest of late rice in Lin'an, Zhejiang, showcasing the integration of technology and services in agriculture [1][3] - The agricultural machinery service center in Lin'an operates eight large drying machines, covering over 50% of the main rice production areas in the region [3] - The service center offers additional services such as rice storage and processing, allowing farmers to sell dried rice directly or process it into branded rice, enhancing value and reducing losses [7] Group 2 - In Heilongjiang, over 230 million acres of crops have been harvested, accounting for 99.2% of the expected harvest, indicating the completion of the autumn harvest [8] - The use of advanced machinery and technology, such as the Beidou navigation system, is optimizing land preparation for future planting [8][10] - In Shanxi's Xiyang County, 330,000 acres of corn are entering the concentrated harvesting period, with local farmers adapting to weather conditions to ensure optimal harvest timing [10][12] Group 3 - The mountainous climate in Shanxi presents challenges for corn harvesting, with farmers waiting for drier conditions to reduce mechanical losses during harvest [14] - Farmers in Xiyang County utilize natural drying methods for corn, taking advantage of the region's dry autumn and winter conditions to save on drying costs [14][15] - The local agricultural department predicts that corn harvesting in Xiyang County will continue until mid-November, reflecting the region's agricultural cycle [15]

Core Insights - The total volume of contracts and intention agreements for autumn grain purchases, including rice and corn, exceeds 200,000 tons, with a monetary value exceeding 500 million yuan [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The autumn grain market in Henan faces challenges due to unusual continuous rainy weather, impacting grain purchases in some regions [1] - The provincial grain and reserves bureau emphasizes the importance of grain purchasing as a key link between production and circulation, aiming to ensure farmers can sell their crops [1][2] Group 2: Policy Measures - To mitigate the impact of low prices on farmers, Henan has introduced policies to stabilize grain income and guide diverse market participants into purchasing [1] - The province has initiated a minimum purchase price execution plan for rice, being the first in the country to do so, to support market stability [1] Group 3: Local Initiatives - In response to the adverse weather, Xinyang has implemented a market-oriented subsidy scheme for damaged rice, ensuring farmers' income while promoting rational use of grain resources [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation for corn is tight but optimistic, with national reserves being sufficient, and limited price fluctuations expected as new grain enters the market [2] - The value of the negotiation meeting lies not only in securing 200,000 tons of autumn grain orders but also in establishing a stable production and sales cooperation foundation [2]